Template:Notable flu pandemics: Difference between revisions
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| A/H3N2, A/H1N1, [[Influenzavirus B|B]], ... |
| A/H3N2, A/H1N1, [[Influenzavirus B|B]], ... |
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| 1.28 (IQR,{{nbsp}}1.19–1.37) |
| 1.28 (IQR,{{nbsp}}1.19–1.37) |
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| 5–15% (340{{nbsp}}million – 1 billion)<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.euro.who.int/influenza|title=WHO Europe – Influenza|date=June 2009|publisher=[[World Health Organization]] (WHO)|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090617212626/http://www.euro.who.int/influenza|archivedate=17 June 2009|accessdate=12 June 2009}}</ref><br>3–11% or 5–20%<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm|title=Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)|last=[[CDC]]|first=|date=2019-10-28|website=www.cdc.gov|language=en-us|others=citing [https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/66/10/1511/4682599 Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018)]|url-status=live|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=2020-03-10}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tokars|first=Jerome I.|last2=Olsen|first2=Sonja J.|last3=Reed|first3=Carrie|date=2018-05-02|title=Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States|url=https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/66/10/1511/4682599|journal=Clinical Infectious Diseases|language=en|volume=66|issue=10|pages=1511–1518|doi=10.1093/cid/cix1060|issn=1058-4838|pmc=5934309|pmid=29206909}}</ref> (240 million–1.6 billion) |
| 5–15% (340{{nbsp}}million – 1 billion)<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.euro.who.int/influenza|title=WHO Europe – Influenza|date=June 2009|publisher=[[World Health Organization]] (WHO)|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090617212626/http://www.euro.who.int/influenza|archivedate=17 June 2009|accessdate=12 June 2009}}</ref><br>3–11% or 5–20%<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm|title=Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)|last=[[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention|CDC]]|first=|date=2019-10-28|website=www.cdc.gov|language=en-us|others=citing [https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/66/10/1511/4682599 Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018)]|url-status=live|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=2020-03-10}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tokars|first=Jerome I.|last2=Olsen|first2=Sonja J.|last3=Reed|first3=Carrie|date=2018-05-02|title=Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States|url=https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/66/10/1511/4682599|journal=Clinical Infectious Diseases|language=en|volume=66|issue=10|pages=1511–1518|doi=10.1093/cid/cix1060|issn=1058-4838|pmc=5934309|pmid=29206909}}</ref> (240 million–1.6 billion) |
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| 290,000–650,000/year<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) |title=Influenza: Fact sheet |date = 6 November 2018|publisher=[[World Health Organization]] (WHO) |accessdate=25 January 2020| archiveurl= https://web.archive.org/web/20191217001215/https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)| archivedate= 17 December 2019 | url-status= live}}</ref> |
| 290,000–650,000/year<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) |title=Influenza: Fact sheet |date = 6 November 2018|publisher=[[World Health Organization]] (WHO) |accessdate=25 January 2020| archiveurl= https://web.archive.org/web/20191217001215/https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)| archivedate= 17 December 2019 | url-status= live}}</ref> |
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| <0.1%<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/world/37983-h1n1-fatality-rates-comparable-to-seasonal-flu|title=H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu|date=17 September 2009|work=The Malaysian Insider|accessdate=26 September 2009|location=Washington, D.C., USA|agency=Reuters|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20091020120444/http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/world/37983-h1n1-fatality-rates-comparable-to-seasonal-flu|archivedate=20 October 2009|url-status=dead}}</ref> |
| <0.1%<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/world/37983-h1n1-fatality-rates-comparable-to-seasonal-flu|title=H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu|date=17 September 2009|work=The Malaysian Insider|accessdate=26 September 2009|location=Washington, D.C., USA|agency=Reuters|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20091020120444/http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/world/37983-h1n1-fatality-rates-comparable-to-seasonal-flu|archivedate=20 October 2009|url-status=dead}}</ref> |
Revision as of 11:20, 11 March 2020
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Name | Date | World pop. | Subtype | Reproduction rate[4] | Infected (est.) | Deaths worldwide | Case fatality rate | Pandemic severity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1889–90 flu pandemic[5] | 1889–90 | 1.53 billion | Likely H3N8 or H2N2 | 2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[5] | 20–60%[5] (300–900 million) | 1 million | 0.10–0.28%[5] | 2 |
Spanish flu[6] | 1918–20 | 1.80 billion | H1N1 | 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27) | 33% (500 million)[7] | 20[8][9]–100[10][11] million | 2–3%[8] | 5 |
Asian flu | 1957–58 | 2.90 billion | H2N2 | 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70) | 8–33% (0.25 – 1 billion) | 1–4 million[8] | <0.2%[8] | 2 |
Hong Kong flu | 1968–69 | 3.53 billion | H3N2 | 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85) | 7–28% (0.25 – 1 billion) | 1–4 million[8] | <0.2%[8] | 2 |
Russian flu | 1977–78 | 4.28 billion | H1N1 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
2009 flu pandemic[12][13] | 2009–10 | 6.85 billion | H1N1/09 | 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70) | 11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[14] | 151,700–575,400[15] | 0.03%[16] | 1 |
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] | Every year | 7.75 billion | A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... | 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37) | 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[17] 3–11% or 5–20%[18][19] (240 million–1.6 billion) |
290,000–650,000/year[20] | <0.1%[21] | 1 |
2019–20 seasonal flu[22][23][t 2] | 2019–20 | 7.75 billion | A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2) | Unknown | 11%[t 2] (800 million; USA, 34-49 million[t 2]) | 0.45-1.2 million (USA: 20-52,000[t 2]) | <0.015%[t 2] | 1 |
2019–20 coronavirus[24] | 2019–20 | 7.75 billion | SARS-CoV-2 | 2.2 (95% CI:1.4–3.9)[25][26]
2.68 (95% CI:2.47–2.86)[27] |
0.0013% (115,000+[28]) | 4,000+[28] | ~3.55%[28] | —[clarification needed] |
Notes |
Notes
- 1889-90 flu, People infected (est.) number : please review source. There are two diverging statments. 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant ?
- Spanish flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwite "20-100 million" statments. Review needed. Lead : Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002) "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
- Kilbourne, Edwin D. (2006). "Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century". Emerging Infectious Diseases journal. 12 (1). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. : considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemic ; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemic.
See also
References
- ^ Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
- ^ Potter CW (October 2006). "A History of Influenza". J Appl Microbiol. 91 (4): 572–79. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290.
{{cite journal}}
: Invalid|ref=harv
(help) - ^ "Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza". World Health Organization. 14 October 2005. Archived from the original on 23 September 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
- ^ Biggerstaff, Matthew; Cauchemez, Simon; Reed, Carrie; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn (2014-09-04). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. ISSN 1471-2334. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link) - ^ a b c d Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boëlle PY (May 2010). "Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 107 (19): 8778–81. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.8778V. doi:10.1073/pnas.1000886107. PMC 2889325. PMID 20421481.
- ^ Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–06. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMID 15602562.
- ^ Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
- ^ a b c d e f "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
- ^ "Pandemic influenza preparedness and response : a who guidance document 2009" (PDF). 2009. p. 13. ISBN 9789241547680.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Morens, David M.; Fauci, Anthony S. (2007-04-01). "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–1028. doi:10.1086/511989. ISSN 0022-1899.
- ^ Johnson, Niall P. A. S.; Mueller, Juergen (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–115. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. ISSN 0007-5140. PMID 11875246.
- ^ Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, et al. (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
- ^ "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
- ^ Kelly, Heath; Peck, Heidi A.; Laurie, Karen L.; Wu, Peng; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Cowling, Benjamin J. (2011-08-05). "The Age-Specific Cumulative Incidence of Infection with Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 Was Similar in Various Countries Prior to Vaccination". PLOS ONE. 6 (8): e21828. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link) - ^ Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, et al. (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
- ^ Triggle, Nick (10 December 2009). "Swine flu less lethal than feared". BBC News. BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 13 December 2009. Retrieved 10 December 2009.
- ^ "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
- ^ CDC (2019-10-28). "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". www.cdc.gov. citing Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018). Retrieved 2020-03-10.
{{cite web}}
: External link in
(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)|others=
- ^ Tokars, Jerome I.; Olsen, Sonja J.; Reed, Carrie (2018-05-02). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. ISSN 1058-4838. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
- ^ "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
- ^ "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., USA. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
- ^ CDC (2020-03-06). "Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 2020-03-10.
- ^ CDC (2020-02-28). "Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Archived from the original on 2020-08-01. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
- ^ Grady, Denise (2020-02-29). "How Does the Coronavirus Compare to the Flu?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
- ^ Li, Qun; Guan, Xuhua; Wu, Peng; Wang, Xiaoye; Zhou, Lei; Tong, Yeqing; Ren, Ruiqi; Leung, Kathy S.M.; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Wong, Jessica Y.; Xing, Xuesen (2020-01-29). "Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (0): null. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. ISSN 0028-4793.
- ^ Fauci, Anthony S.; Lane, H. Clifford; Redfield, Robert R. (2020-02-28). "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (0): null. doi:10.1056/NEJMe2002387. ISSN 0028-4793.
- ^ Wu, Joseph T.; Leung, Kathy; Leung, Gabriel M. (2020-02-29). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study". The Lancet. 395 (10225): 689–697. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. ISSN 0140-6736. PMID 32014114.
- ^ a b c Wikipedian editors. "2019–20 coronavirus outbreak data by countries".
{{cite web}}
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