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|+ Major modern influenza pandemics<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Hilleman MR |title=Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control |journal=Vaccine |volume=20 |issue=25–26 |pages=3068–87 |date=August 2002 |pmid=12163258 |doi=10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors=Potter CW | title=A History of Influenza | journal=J Appl Microbiol |date=October 2006 |volume=91 |issue= 4 | pages = 572–79 | pmid = 11576290| doi=10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x | ref =harv}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html |publisher=World Health Organization |date=14 October 2005 |title=Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza |accessdate=26 September 2009 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090923231756/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html |archivedate=23 September 2009 |url-status=dead |df=dmy }}</ref> ({{navbar|Notable flu pandemics|mini=1|nodiv=1}})
|+ Major modern influenza<noinclude> and coronavirus</noinclude> pandemics<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Hilleman MR |title=Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control |journal=Vaccine |volume=20 |issue=25–26 |pages=3068–87 |date=August 2002 |pmid=12163258 |doi=10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors=Potter CW | title=A History of Influenza | journal=J Appl Microbiol |date=October 2006 |volume=91 |issue= 4 | pages = 572–79 | pmid = 11576290| doi=10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x | ref =harv}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html |publisher=World Health Organization |date=14 October 2005 |title=Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza |accessdate=26 September 2009 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090923231756/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html |archivedate=23 September 2009 |url-status=dead |df=dmy }}</ref> ({{navbar|Notable flu pandemics|mini=1|nodiv=1}})
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Major modern influenza and coronavirus pandemics[1][2][3] (
)
Name Date World pop. Subtype Reproduction rate[4] Infected (est.) Deaths worldwide Case fatality rate Pandemic severity
1889–90 flu pandemic[5] 1889–90 1.53 billion Likely H3N8 or H2N2 2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[5] 20–60%[5] (300–900 million) 1 million 0.10–0.28%[5] 2
1918 flu[6] 1918–20 1.80 billion H1N1 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27) 33% (500 million)[7] or >56% (>1 billion)[8] 20[8][9]–100[10][11] million 2–3%,[8] or ~4%, or ~10%[12] 5
Asian flu 1957–58 2.90 billion H2N2 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70) >17% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.2%[8] 2
Hong Kong flu 1968–69 3.53 billion H3N2 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85) >14% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.2%[8] 2
Russian flu 1977–78 4.28 billion H1N1 Un­known Un­known Un­known Un­known Un­known
2009 flu pandemic[13][14] 2009–10 6.85 billion H1N1/09 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70) 11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[15] 151,700–575,400[16] 0.03%[17] 1
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] Every year 7.75 billion A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37) 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[18]
3–11% or 5–20%[19][20] (240 million–1.6 billion) 		290,000–650,000/year[21] <0.1%[22] 1
2019–20 seasonal flu[23][24][t 2] 2019–20 7.75 billion A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2) Un­known 11%[t 2] (800 million; USA, 34-49 million[t 2]) 0.45-1.2 million (USA: 20–52,000[t 2]) ongoing 1
2019–20 coronavirus[25] 2019–20 7.75 billion SARS-CoV-2 2.2 (95% CI:1.4–3.9)[26][27]

2.68 (95% CI:2.47–2.86)[28]

0.003% (198,155+)[29] 7,954+[29] ~4.01%[29] —[clarification needed]
Notes
  1. ^ Not necessarily pandemic, but included for comparison purposes.
  2. ^ a b c d Ongoing epidemic . Numbers based on USA's epidemic so far. See CDC 2019-20 influenza's source.

Notes

  • 1889-90 flu, People infected (est.) number : please review source. There are two diverging statments. 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant ?
  • 1918 flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwite "20-100 million" statments. Review needed. Lead : Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002) "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
  • Kilbourne, Edwin D. (2006). "Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century". Emerging Infectious Diseases journal. 12 (1). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. : considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemic ; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemic.

References

  1. ^ Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
  2. ^ Potter CW (October 2006). "A History of Influenza". J Appl Microbiol. 91 (4): 572–79. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)
  3. ^ "Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza". World Health Organization. 14 October 2005. Archived from the original on 23 September 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
  4. ^ Biggerstaff, Matthew; Cauchemez, Simon; Reed, Carrie; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn (2014-09-04). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. ISSN 1471-2334. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  5. ^ a b c d Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boëlle PY (May 2010). "Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 107 (19): 8778–81. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.8778V. doi:10.1073/pnas.1000886107. PMC 2889325. PMID 20421481.
  6. ^ Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–06. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMID 15602562.
  7. ^ Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
  9. ^ "Pandemic influenza preparedness and response : a who guidance document 2009" (PDF). 2009. p. 13. ISBN 9789241547680.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  10. ^ Morens, David M.; Fauci, Anthony S. (2007-04-01). "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–1028. doi:10.1086/511989. ISSN 0022-1899.
  11. ^ Johnson, Niall P. A. S.; Mueller, Juergen (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–115. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. ISSN 0007-5140. PMID 11875246.
  12. ^ https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/why-this-coronavirus-likely-wont-be-as-bad-as-the-1918-pandemic-flu
  13. ^ Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, et al. (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
  14. ^ "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
  15. ^ Kelly, Heath; Peck, Heidi A.; Laurie, Karen L.; Wu, Peng; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Cowling, Benjamin J. (2011-08-05). "The Age-Specific Cumulative Incidence of Infection with Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 Was Similar in Various Countries Prior to Vaccination". PLOS ONE. 6 (8): e21828. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  16. ^ Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, et al. (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
  17. ^ Triggle, Nick (10 December 2009). "Swine flu less lethal than feared". BBC News. BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 13 December 2009. Retrieved 10 December 2009.
  18. ^ "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
  19. ^ CDC (2019-10-28). "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". www.cdc.gov. citing Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018). Retrieved 2020-03-10. {{cite web}}: External link in |others= (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  20. ^ Tokars, Jerome I.; Olsen, Sonja J.; Reed, Carrie (2018-05-02). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. ISSN 1058-4838. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
  21. ^ "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
  22. ^ "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., USA. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
  23. ^ CDC (2020-03-06). "Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 2020-03-10.
  24. ^ CDC (2020-02-28). "Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Archived from the original on 2020-08-01. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
  25. ^ Grady, Denise (2020-02-29). "How Does the Coronavirus Compare to the Flu?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
  26. ^ Li, Qun; Guan, Xuhua; Wu, Peng; Wang, Xiaoye; Zhou, Lei; Tong, Yeqing; Ren, Ruiqi; Leung, Kathy S.M.; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Wong, Jessica Y.; Xing, Xuesen (2020-01-29). "Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (0): null. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. ISSN 0028-4793.
  27. ^ Fauci, Anthony S.; Lane, H. Clifford; Redfield, Robert R. (2020-02-28). "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (0): null. doi:10.1056/NEJMe2002387. ISSN 0028-4793.
  28. ^ Wu, Joseph T.; Leung, Kathy; Leung, Gabriel M. (2020-02-29). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study". The Lancet. 395 (10225): 689–697. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. ISSN 0140-6736. PMID 32014114.
  29. ^ a b c Wikipedian editors. "2019–20 coronavirus outbreak data by countries". {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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