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Opinion polling on Catalan independence

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 152.3.43.57 (talk) at 02:50, 30 October 2021 (The 3rd wave 2020 statistics were incorrectly listed in the footnote as "2nd wave 2020"). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

This page lists public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the issue of Catalan independence.

Polling institutions

Centre for Opinion Studies

The Centre for Opinion Studies (Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió; CEO) fell under the purview of the Economy Ministry of the Generalitat of Catalonia until early 2011. Since then it has been placed under direct control of the Presidency of the Generalitat and is currently headed by Jordi Argelaguet i Argemí. Since the second quarter of 2011, CEO has conducted polls regarding public sentiments toward independence.

Date In favor (%) Against (%) Others (%) Abstain (%) Do not know (%) Did not reply (%)
2011 2nd series[1] 42.9 28.2 0.5 23.3 4.4 0.8
2011 3rd series[2] 45.4 24.7 0.6 23.8 4.6 1.0
2012 1st series[3] 44.6 24.7 1.0 24.2 4.6 0.9
2012 2nd series[4] 51.1 21.1 1.0 21.1 4.7 1.1
2012 3rd series[5] 57.0 20.5 0.6 14.3 6.2 1.5
2013 1st series[6] 54.7 20.7 1.1 17.0 5.4 1.0
2013 2nd series[7] 55.6 23.4 0.6 15.3 3.8 1.3
2014 1st seriesa - - - - - -
2014 2nd series[8] 44.5 45.3 - - 7.5 2.8
2015 1st series[9] 44.1 48.0 - - 6.0 1.8
2015 2nd series[10] 42.9 50.0 - - 5.8 1.3
2015 3rd series[11] 46.7 47.8 - - 3.9 1.7
2016 1st series[12] 45.3 45.5 - - 7.1 2.1
2016 2nd series[13] 47.7 42.4 - - 8.3 1.7
2016 3rd series[14] 44.9 45.1 - - 7.0 2.9
2017 1st series[15] 44.3 48.5 - - 5.6 1.6
2017 2nd series[16] 41.1 49.4 - - 7.8 1.7
2017 3rd series[17] 48.7 43.6 - - 6.5 1.3
2018 1st series[18] 48.0 43.7 - - 5.7 2.6
2018 2nd series[19] 46.7 44.9 - - 6.7 1.6
2019 1st series[20] 48.4 44.1 - - 6.7 1.6
2019 2nd series[21] 44.0 48.3 - - 5.5 2.1
2019 3rd series[22] 43.7 47.9 - - 6.5 1.9
2020 1st series[23] 44.9 47.1 - - 6.5 1.6
2020 2nd series[24] 42.0 50.5 - - 5.6 1.9
2020 3rd series[25] 43.6 49.0 - - 5.8 1.6

a The question was not asked in this survey; instead the two part question was asked (see below).

CEO likewise conducted polls in the 1st and 2nd series of 2014 based on the 9N independence referendum format. The questions and choices involved were:

  • Do you want Catalonia to become a State? (Yes/No)
  • If the answer for question 1 is in the affirmative: Do you want this State to be independent? (Yes/No)
Date Yes + Yes (%) Yes + No (%) No (%) Abstain (%) Others (%) Do not know/Did not reply (%)
2014 1st series[26] 47.1 8.6 19.3 11.1 2.7 11.2
2014 2nd series[8] 49.4 12.6 19.7 6.9 6.2 3.3

In addition, CEO performs regular polls studying opinion of Catalan citizens regarding Catalonia's political status within Spain. The following table contains the answers to the question "Which kind of political entity should Catalonia be with respect to Spain?":[27]

Date Independent state (%) Federal state within Spain (%) Autonomous community within Spain (%) Region within Spain (%) Do not know (%) Did not reply (%)
June 2005 13.6 31.3 40.8 7.0 6.2 1.1
November 2005 12.9 35.8 37.6 5.6 6.9 1.2
March 2006 13.9 33.4 38.2 8.1 5.1 1.2
July 2006 14.9 34.1 37.3 6.9 6.1 0.7
October 2006 14.0 32.9 38.9 8.3 5.1 0.8
November 2006 15.9 32.8 40.0 6.8 3.7 0.8
March 2007 14.5 35.3 37.0 6.1 4.9 2.2
July 2007 16.9 34.0 37.3 5.5 5.4 1.0
October 2007 18.5 34.2 35.0 4.7 6.0 1.5
December 2007 17.3 33.8 37.8 5.1 5.0 1.0
January 2008 19.4 36.4 34.8 3.8 4.1 1.6
May 2008 17.6 33.4 38.9 5.1 4.3 0.7
July 2008 16.1 34.7 37.0 6.1 5.2 0.9
November 2008 17.4 31.8 38.3 7.1 4.2 1.2
February 2009[28] 16.1 35.2 38.6 4.5 3.6 2.0
May 2009[29] 20.9 35.0 34.9 4.4 3.0 1.7
July 2009[30] 19.0 32.2 36.8 6.2 4.2 1.6
December 2009[31] 21.6 29.9 36.9 5.9 4.1 1.6
2010 1st series[32] 19.4 29.5 38.2 6.9 4.4 1.6
2010 2nd series[33] 21.5 31.2 35.2 7.3 4.0 0.7
2010 3rd series[34] 24.3 31.0 33.3 5.4 4.9 1.0
2010 4th series[35] 25.2 30.9 34.7 5.9 2.7 0.7
2011 1st series[36] 24.5 31.9 33.2 5.6 3.5 1.3
2011 2nd series[1] 25.5 33.0 31.8 5.6 3.4 0.8
2011 3rd series[2] 28.2 30.4 30.3 5.7 3.9 1.5
2012 1st series[3] 29.0 30.8 27.8 5.2 5.4 1.8
2012 2nd series[4] 34.0 28.7 25.4 5.7 5.0 1.3
2012 3rd series[5] 44.3 25.5 19.1 4.0 4.9 2.2
2013 1st series[6] 46.4 22.4 20.7 4.4 4.9 1.2
2013 2nd series[7] 47.0 21.2 22.8 4.6 3.5 0.9
2013 3rd series[37] 48.5 21.3 18.6 5.4 4.0 2.2
2014 1st series[26] 45.2 20.0 23.3 2.6 6.9 2.0
2014 2nd series[8] 45.3 22.2 23.4 1.8 6.5 0.9
2015 1st series[9] 39.1 26.1 24.0 3.4 5.3 2.0
2015 2nd series[10] 37.6 24.0 29.3 4.0 3.9 1.1
2015 3rd series[11] 41.1 22.2 27.4 3.7 4.2 1.4
2016 1st series[12] 38.5 26.3 25.1 4.1 4.5 1.5
2016 2nd series[13] 41.6 20.9 26.5 4.0 5.6 1.3
2016 3rd series[14] 38.9 23.2 24.1 5.7 N/A N/A
2016 4th series[38] 36.1 29.2 23.6 4.5 3.4 3.2
2017 1st series[15] 37.3 21.7 28.5 7.0 3.8 1.6
2017 2nd series[16] 34.7 21.7 30.5 5.3 6.1 1.7
2017 3rd series[17] 40.2 21.9 27.4 4.6 4.7 1.2
2018 1st series[18] 40.8 22.4 24.0 6.3 4.6 2.0
2018 2nd series[19] 38.8 22.4 25.5 7.8 4.4 1.1
2019 1st series[20] 39.7 21.5 26.3 5.9 4.7 1.9
2019 2nd series[21] 34.5 24.5 27.0 7.8 4.6 1.6
2019 3rd series[22] 36.7 21.7 28.0 5.9 5.8 1.8
2020 1st series[23] 35.5 23.9 26.8 6.5 5.5 1.7
2020 2nd series[24] 33.9 22.9 29.6 6.8 5.2 1.7
2020 3rd series[25] 34.9 22.6 28.0 6.4 6.0 2.1

Social and Political Sciences Institute of Barcelona

The Political Sciences Institute of Barcelona (Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials; ICPS) performed an opinion poll annually from 1989, which sometimes included a section on independence. The results are in the following table:[39]

Year Support (%) Against (%) Indifferent (%) Did not reply (%)
1991 35 50 11 4
1992 31 53 11 5
1993 37 50 9 5
1994 35 49 14 3
1995 36 52 10 3
1996 29 56 11 4
1997 32 52 11 5
1998 32 55 10 3
1999 32 55 10 3
2000 32 53 13 3
2001 33 55 11 1
2002 34 52 12 1
2003[a] 43 43 12 1
2004[a] 39 44 13 3
2005 36 44 15 6
2006 33 48 17 2
2007 31.7 51.3 14.1 2.9
2011 41.4 22.9 26.5 9.2

a telephonic instead of door-to-door interview

Newspaper polls

Catalan newspapers El Periódico and La Vanguardia also published surveys up to 2013.

El Periódico

Date Yes (%) No (%) Others (%)
October 2007[40] 33.9 43.9 22.3
December 2009[41] 39.0 40.6 20.4
June 2010[42] 48.1 35.5 16.6
January 2012[43] 53.6 32.0 14.4
September 2012[44] 46.4 22.0 25.7
November 2012[45] 50.9 36.9 12.2
November 2012[a][45] 40.1 47.8 12.1
May 2013[46] 57.8 36.0 6.3

a The same poll, but asking what would be the case if a yes vote would imply leaving the EU

La Vanguardia

Date Yes (%) No (%) Others (%)
November 2009[47] 35 46 19
March 2010[48] 36 44 20
May 2010[49] 37 41 22
July 2010[50] 47 36 17
September 2010[51] 40 45 15
April 2011[52] 34 30 35
September 2012[53] 54.8 33.5 10.16
December 2013[54] 44.9 45 10.1

References

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