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Opinion polling for the 2007 French legislative election

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This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2007 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 10 and 17 June 2007.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the five major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

First round

During the 2007 presidential election, Ipsos launched the first ever rolling poll in France, described as a "continuous electoral barometer",[1] which it continued to carry out for the legislative elections in June.

Other far-left parties received 0.32% of the vote in the first round in 2002; this total is included in the total for miscellaneous candidates, which would otherwise be 0.84%. Results for the Citizen and Republican Movement are compared with those of the Republican Pole in 2002, and Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.89%; the two parties received 0.42% and 0.36% of the vote, respectively.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. LO LCR PCF MRC PS PRG DVG LV ECO MoDem NC UMP DVD MPF FN MNR CPNT EXD REG DIV
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 39.58% 3.41% (EXG) 4.29% (DVG) 24.73% 1.32% 1.97% 3.25% 0.80% 7.61% 2.37% 39.54% 2.47% 1.20% 4.29% (EXD) 0.82% 0.39% 0.51% 1.03%
Ipsos 8 Jun 2007 962 2.5% 3.5% 29.5% 2.5% 10% 41.5% 1% 1.5% 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
CSA 6–7 Jun 2007 822 1% 3% 4% 28% 4% 7% 41% 1% 6% 1% 4%
Ipsos 6–7 Jun 2007 1,207 3% 4% 28% 3% 9% 43% 1% 1.5% 5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 5–6 Jun 2007 1,207 3% 4% 29% 3% 9% 41.5% 1% 2% 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
TNS Sofres 5–6 Jun 2007 1,000 3.5% 3% 29.5% 3% 10% 41.5% 2% 1% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
BVA 4–5 Jun 2007 820 3% 4% 28% 3% 8% 42% 4% 5% 3%
Ipsos 4–5 Jun 2007 1,206 3% 3.5% 29% 3% 9% 41.5% 1% 1.5% 6% 0.5% 1% 1%
Ipsos 1–4 Jun 2007 1,558 2.5% 3.5% 29% 3.5% 9% 42.5% 1% 1% 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 31 May–2 Jun 2007 1,357 2.5% 3.5% 29% 4% 8% 43% 1% 1.5% 5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ifop 31 May–1 Jun 2007 929 4% 4.5% 27% 3% 9% 41% 1.5% 6% 4%
Ipsos 30 May–1 Jun 2007 1,224 2.5% 3% 29.5% 4% 7.5% 43.5% 1.5% 1.5% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
CSA 30–31 May 2007 852 2% 2% 4% 26% 5% 8% 42% 1% 5% 1% 4%
Ipsos 29–31 May 2007 1,212 2.5% 3% 29.5% 3.5% 7% 43.5% 1.5% 2% 5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 28–30 May 2007 1,215 3% 3.5% 29.5% 3% 7.5% 43.5% 1.5% 2% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
TNS Sofres 28–29 May 2007 1,000 4% 4% 27% 3% 10% 42% 2% 1.5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 26–29 May 2007 1,321 3% 3.5% 29.5% 3% 8.5% 43% 1% 2% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
Ipsos 25–28 May 2007 1,356 3% 4% 28.5% 3% 9% 43.5% 1% 2% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
Ipsos 24–26 May 2007 1,356 3% 4% 28% 2.5% 9.5% 43% 1% 2.5% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
Ifop 24–25 May 2007 931 2% 3.5% 27.5% 4% 12% 41% 2% 6% 2%
Ipsos 23–25 May 2007 1,251 3% 4% 27.5% 2.5% 9.5% 43.5% 1% 2% 5% 0.5% 0.5% 1%
CSA 23–24 May 2007 863 2% 3% 3% 26% 5% 12% 37% 2% 8% 1% 1%
Ipsos 22–24 May 2007 1,213 4% 4% 28% 3% 9% 42.5% 2.5% 5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 21–23 May 2007 1,212 4% 4% 29% 3.5% 8.5% 41.5% 2% 5.5% 0.5% 1.5%
BVA 21–22 May 2007 865 4.5% 3% 30% 3.5% 9% 42% 3% 5%
Ipsos 19–22 May 2007 1,773 4% 3.5% 28.5% 3.5% 9% 41.5% 2.5% 5.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Ipsos 19–21 May 2007 1,372 4% 3.5% 29.5% 4% 8.5% 41% 2.5% 5.5% 0.5% 1%
Ipsos 19 May 2007 968 4% 3% 29% 4% 9% 41% 2.5% 6% 0.5% 1%
TNS Sofres 18–19 May 2007 1,000 3.5% 3.5% 28% 4% 15% 40% 1.5% 3.5% 1%
CSA 15–16 May 2007 890 1% 2% 3% 27% 3% 16% 38% 1% 7% 1% 1%
BVA 14–15 May 2007 840 3% 3% 30% 4% 12% 36% 4% 8%
Ipsos 11–12 May 2007 948 3% 3.5% 28% 4% 10% 40% 2% 8% 0.5% 1%
Ifop 10–11 May 2007 885 3% 4% 28% 4% 14% 37% 2% 7% 1%
BVA 7 May 2007 806 5% 3% 30% 6% 9% 35% 4% 8%
CSA 6 May 2007 1,030 2% 1% 2% 30% 1% 15% 35% 2% 8% 2% 2%
Ifop 3–4 May 2007 883 4% 4% 29% 5% 12% 34% 2% 7% 1% 2%
TNS Sofres 23 Apr 2007 1,000 4% 3% 32% 4% 12% 32% 2% 9% 2%
BVA 8–9 Jan 2007 859 4% 5% 31% 2% 5% 1% 5% 31% 3% 10% 3%
2002 election 9 Jun 2002 35.58% 1.18% 1.24% 4.91% 1.19% 23.78% 1.51% 1.38% 4.44% 1.15% 4.79% 33.37% 4.68% 0.79% 11.12% 1.08% 1.64% 0.25% 0.36% 1.16%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) are for 555 deputies representing metropolitan France. The final three Ipsos projections were constructed using interviews in 184 constituencies with left-right duels where the outcome appeared uncertain, while the two preceding projections were based on 197 constituencies.

Seats for Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for 2002, which would otherwise be 9; the parties each won 2 seats.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. PCF MRC PS PRG DVG LV MoDem NC UMP DVD MPF REG DIV
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 40.02% 15 (DVG) 186 7 15 4 3 22 313 9 1 1 1
Ipsos 14–15 Jun 2007 1,209 11–16 140–175 2–4 2–3 20–23 358–395 2
CSA* 13–14 Jun 2007 939 10–15 95–130 1–3 1–3 420–463 1–3
Ipsos 13–14 Jun 2007 1,009 10–15 125–156 2–3 2–3 20–23 379–411 2
Ipsos 12–13 Jun 2007 972 10–15 121–149 1–3 2–3 20–23 386–415 2
TNS Sofres* 12–13 Jun 2007 1,000 10–15 125–155 2–4 1–2 21–23 380–410 2 2
BVA* 12 Jun 2007 806 10–16 105–131 3–4 1–3 394–434
Ipsos 11–12 Jun 2007 1,373 8–15 115–146 1–3 2–3 20–23 388–422 2
Ipsos 11 Jun 2007 793 7–14 117–157 1–3 1–3 20–23 387–428 2
Ipsos* 8 Jun 2007 962 5–10 114–162 0–2 2–6 21–24 364–404
CSA* 6–7 Jun 2007 822 4–12 110–154 1–3 1–6 390–420 2–3
TNS Sofres* 5–6 Jun 2007 1,000 4–10 115–155 1–3 2–6 390–430 2–3
BVA* 4–5 Jun 2007 820 6–14 120–173 1–3 1–4 366–419 0–3
Ipsos* 4–5 Jun 2007 1,206 5–10 115–158 0–2 1–6 21–24 361–406
Ifop* 31 May–1 Jun 2007 929 9–15 80–120 0–2 0–4 420–460 2
CSA* 30–31 May 2007 852 4–12 111–151 1–3 1–6 402–425 2–3
TNS Sofres* 28–29 May 2007 1,000 4–10 101–142 1–3 2–6 410–430 2–3
Ipsos* 25–28 May 2007 1,356 6–12 102–142 0–2 1–6 21–25 380–417
Ifop* 24–25 May 2007 931 6–10 90–130 0–2 0–6 410–450 2
CSA* 23–24 May 2007 863 6–14 132–182 1–4 1–6 353–407 2–3
BVA* 21–22 May 2007 865 4–10 121–159 0–3 0–3 379–431
TNS Sofres* 18–19 May 2007 1,000 2–9 137–153 1–2 2–10 365–415 2–3
BVA* 14–15 May 2007 840 14–21 151–200 1–2 0–4 317–381 4–11
Ifop* 10–11 May 2007 885 9–13 149–190 0–4 0–8 336–390 0–2
BVA* 7 May 2007 806 14–18 158–200 0–6 8–13 288–344 4–7
2002 election 16 Jun 2002 39.69% 21 0 140 7 6 3 29 355 13 1 1 1

By second round configuration

Configurations tested before the first were collected among a national sample, except for the Ipsos poll conducted on 13 June 2007 which was conducted specifically in 17 constituencies where a victory for a French Communist Party candidate was considered possible.

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/NC

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
UMP/
NC
Ipsos 8 Jun 2007 962 44% 56%
Ipsos 6–7 Jun 2007 1,207 43% 57%
Ipsos 5–6 Jun 2007 1,207 44% 56%
Ipsos 4–5 Jun 2007 1,206 44% 56%
Ipsos 1–4 Jun 2007 1,558 43% 57%
Ipsos 31 May–2 Jun 2007 1,357 43.5% 56.5%
Ipsos 30 May–1 Jun 2007 1,224 44% 56%
Ipsos 29–31 May 2007 1,212 44.5% 55.5%
Ipsos 28–30 May 2007 1,215 44% 56%
Ipsos 26–29 May 2007 1,321 43.5% 56.5%
Ipsos 25–28 May 2007 1,356 42.5% 57.5%
Ipsos 24–26 May 2007 1,356 42.5% 57.5%
Ipsos 23–25 May 2007 1,251 42% 58%
Ipsos 22–24 May 2007 1,213 42% 58%
Ipsos 21–23 May 2007 1,212 43% 57%
Ipsos 19–22 May 2007 1,773 43% 57%
Ipsos 19–21 May 2007 1,372 44% 56%
Ipsos 19 May 2007 968 43% 57%
Ipsos 11–12 May 2007 948 44% 56%

PS/PCF/LV–MoDem–UMP

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
MoDem UMP
Ipsos 21–23 May 2007 1,212 39% 9% 52%
Ipsos 19–22 May 2007 1,773 38% 10% 52%
Ipsos 19–21 May 2007 1,372 39% 10% 51%
Ipsos 19 May 2007 968 38% 10% 52%
Ipsos 11–12 May 2007 948 38% 11% 51%

PCF–UMP/NC

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
PCF UMP/
NC
Ipsos 13 Jun 2007 603 54% 46%

By constituency

First round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Jean Fantini
PCF
Olivier Dussopt
PS
Jean-Claude Mourgues
LV
Dominique Chambon
MoDem
Gérard Weber
UMP
Jacques Dubay
DVD
Claude Richard
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 37.71% 3.51% 26.10% 3.42% 8.82% 29.37% 16.87% 3.72% 8.20%
BVA 1–5 Jun 2007 607 2.5% 27% 4% 14% 26% 14% 6% 6.5%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
PS
Thierry Cornillet
MoDem
Franck Reynier
UMP
Joël Cheval
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 39.10% 27.76% 13.71% 40.41% 6.63% 11.50%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 603 28% 17% 36% 6% 13%

Eure's 3rd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Francis Courel
PS diss.
Nathalie Zanon
PS
Philippe Raviart
MoDem
Hervé Morin
NC
Marc Le Tanneur
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 36.78% 16.07% 10.32% 5.40% 50.05% 3.97% 14.19%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 2007 607 17% 10% 5% 49% 4% 15%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Michèle Delaunay
PS
Pierre Hurmic
LV
Ludovic Guinard
MoDem
Alain Juppé
UMP
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 39.54% 31.36% 6.83% 8.31% 43.73% 9.77%
Ifop 29–30 May 2007 602 33% 6% 6% 44% 11%

Isère's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Geneviève Fioraso
PS
Marie-Odile Novelli
LV
Philippe de Longevialle
MoDem
Alain Carignon
UMP
Richard Cazenave
DVD
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 36.88% 32.02% 6.52% 10.35% 21.45% 19.62% 10.04%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 604 35% 5% 11% 19% 20% 10%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Jean-Pierre Mariné withdrew and did not contest the second round despite being eligible to after the decision of the party to allow Bayrou to carry the constituency.[2]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Marie-Pierre Cabanne
PS
Nicole Juyoux
LV
François Bayrou
MoDem
Jean-Pierre Mariné
UMP
Michèle Darricarrère
FN
Frédéric Nihous
CPNT
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 33.22% 23.32% 2.36% 37.25% 25.92% 2.29% 2.39% 6.47%
Ifop 1–2 Jun 2007 603 21% 2.5% 45% 20% 3% 3% 5.5%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Arnaud Montebourg
PS
Éric Michoux
MoDem
Arnaud Danjean
UMP
Monique Faure-Lafont
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 35.04% 41.37% 4.58% 43.95% 2.91% 7.18%
Ifop 2–4 Jun 2007 605 42% 5% 39% 8% 6%

Sarthe's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Gilles Leproust
PCF
Stéphane Le Foll
PS
Jean-Pierre Bourrely
MoDem
François Fillon
UMP
Catherine du Boisbaudry
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 36.47% 4.09% 30.03% 4.10% 53.40% 2.39% 5.99%
Ifop 29–30 May 2007 602 4% 25% 4% 54% 5% 8%

Paris's 8th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Sandrine Mazetier
PS
Pénélope Komitès
LV
Jean-François Pernin
MoDem
Arno Klarsfeld
UMP
Philippe Coulnecheff
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 34.29% 33.54% 3.67% 12.31% 35.76% 2.47% 12.24%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 2007 605 34% 5% 13% 34% 4% 10%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Pierre Meffre
PS
Roland Roticci
MoDem
Thierry Mariani
UMP
Jacques Bompard
MPF
Emmanuelle Gueguen
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 2007 37.11% 20.34% 4.80% 41.36% 19.72% 4.44% 9.34%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 605 24% 3% 40% 19% 5% 9%

Second round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Olivier Dussopt
PS
Dominique Chambon
MoDem
Gérard Weber
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 37.16% 53.71% 46.29%
BVA 1–5 Jun 2007 607 51% 49%
43% 15% 42%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
PS
Thierry Cornillet
MoDem
Franck Reynier
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 39.10% 47.00% 53.00%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 603 50% 50%
39% 18% 43%
47% 53%
47% 53%

Eure's 3rd

Hervé Morin was directly elected in the first round on 10 June 2007.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Francis Courel
PS diss.
Hervé Morin
NC
Ifop 4–5 Jun 2007 607 41% 59%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Michèle Delaunay
PS
Alain Juppé
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 38.93% 50.93% 49.07%
Ifop 29–30 May 2007 602 48.5% 51.5%

Isère's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Geneviève Fioraso
PS
Philippe de Longevialle
MoDem
Alain Carignon
UMP
Richard Cazenave
DVD
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 37.64% 63.03% 36.97%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 604 62% 38%
50% 22% 28%
53% 47%
46% 24% 30%
45% 18% 37%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Marie-Pierre Cabanne
PS
François Bayrou
MoDem
Jean-Pierre Mariné
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 37.26% 38.79% 61.21%
Ifop 1–2 Jun 2007 603 28% 46% 26%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Arnaud Montebourg
PS
Arnaud Danjean
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 30.10% 50.34% 49.66%
Ifop 2–4 Jun 2007 605 51% 49%

Paris's 8th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Sandrine Mazetier
PS
Arno Klarsfeld
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 35.64% 55.85% 44.15%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 2007 605 50% 50%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Pierre Meffre
PS
Thierry Mariani
UMP
Jacques Bompard
MPF
2007 election 17 Jun 2007 39.31% 39.82% 60.18%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 2007 605 37% 63%
32% 46% 22%
69% 31%

See also

References

  1. ^ "Ipsos lance le premier baromètre électoral en continu". Ipsos. 28 February 2007. Retrieved 1 March 2018.
  2. ^ "François Bayrou réélu dans les Pyrénée-Atlantiques". La Dépêche du Midi. 17 June 2007. Retrieved 1 March 2018.