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Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

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The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) is a marine biology project to compare computer models of the impact of climate change on sea life. Founded in 2013[1] as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP),[2] it was established to answer questions about the future of marine biodiversity, seafood supply, fisheries, and marine ecosystem functioning in the context of various climate change scenarios. It combines diverse marine ecosystem models from both the global and regional scale through a standardized protocol for ensemble modelling in an attempt to correct for any bias in the individual models that make up the ensemble.[3] Fish-MIP's goal is to use this ensemble modelling to project a more robust picture of the future state of fisheries and marine ecosystems under the impacts of climate change,[4] and ultimately to help inform fishing policy.

Background

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Ensemble modelling

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Ensemble modelling is combining the outputs of multiple models that are all working on the same question.[5] This allows researchers to analyze the different vulnerabilities of each individual model, and weigh the impact of particular inputs.[1] Aggregating all the outputs and then using the outputs with the highest frequency across the models minimizes the error in the projection.[6]

Fish-MIP

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Ensemble modelling is generally difficult because of the variety of possible inputs and outputs, which makes it challenging to run different models on the same data and compare results. The Fish-MIP protocols standardize input variables, as well as the names of files and data stores. The inputs are collected from simplified fishing scenarios, models of the climate and how much greenhouse gas will be in the atmosphere. These standardized inputs and scenarios can then be used to drive multiple ecosystem models, and the outputs are then combined through an ensemble modelling approach. The Fish-MIP standardizing protocol allow for these diverse inputs to be collated, thus minimizing projection error.[7][8][9][10]

Some of the models used:

Global

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  • Apex Predators ECOSystem Model (ApeCOSM)[11]
  • BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS)[12]

Regional

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Use in studies

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Although at an earlier stage than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, as of 2021 studies suggest that larger fish species and the tropics are most affected by climate change.[15]

  • Gómara et al. (2019) used it to predict tropical Pacific fisheries[16]
  • du Pontavice et al. (2021) used it to examine the impacts of climate on predators and ecosystems[17]
  • Bryndum-Buchholz et al. (2018) examined the impacts of climate change on animal biomass and ecosystem structure[18]
  • Bryndum-Buchholz et al. (2020) used the model outputs to investigate the relationship between North Atlantic fisheries and climate change impacts[19]
  • Boyce et al. 2020 used the modelling outputs to examine socioeconomic gaps that would result from climate induced biomass losses amongst fisheries[20]
  • Lotze et al. al. 2019 also looked at the impact of climate change via trophic amplification of biomass losses of marine species[21]

References

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  1. ^ a b Cheung, William W. L. (2019). Predicting Future Oceans : Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change. Yoshitaka Ota, Andrés. Cisneros-Montemayor. San Diego: Elsevier. ISBN 978-0-12-817946-8. OCLC 1114972202.
  2. ^ Hempel, S.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Piontek, F. (2013-07-31). "A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach". Earth System Dynamics. 4 (2): 219–236. Bibcode:2013ESD.....4..219H. doi:10.5194/esd-4-219-2013. ISSN 2190-4979.
  3. ^ Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine (2018-04-13). "A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0". Geoscientific Model Development. 11 (4): 1421–1442. Bibcode:2018GMD....11.1421T. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018. hdl:10261/165167. ISSN 1991-959X.
  4. ^ Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Prentice, Faelan; Tittensor, Derek P.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Cheung, William W.L.; Christensen, Villy; Galbraith, Eric D.; Maury, Olivier; Lotze, Heike K. (2020-01-01). Favaro, Brett (ed.). "Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada's three oceans". FACETS. 5 (1): 105–122. doi:10.1139/facets-2019-0035. ISSN 2371-1671. S2CID 216303864.
  5. ^ Kotu, Vijay; Deshpande, Bala (2019), "Data Science Process", Data Science, Elsevier, pp. 19–37, doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814761-0.00002-2, ISBN 978-0-12-814761-0, S2CID 117469594
  6. ^ Predictive Analytics and Data Mining. Elsevier. 2015. doi:10.1016/c2014-0-00329-2. ISBN 978-0-12-801460-8.
  7. ^ "Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison (Fish-MIP) Postdoctoral Scientist | Euromarine Network". www.euromarinenetwork.eu. Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  8. ^ Tittensor, Derek P.; Novaglio, Camilla; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Britten, Gregory L.; Büchner, Matthias; Cheung, William W. L. (November 2021). "Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems". Nature Climate Change. 11 (11): 973–981. Bibcode:2021NatCC..11..973T. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9. ISSN 1758-6798. PMC 8556156. PMID 34745348.
  9. ^ "ISIMIP3b simulation round – Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems (global)". protocol.isimip.org. Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  10. ^ "ISIMIP3b simulation round – Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems (regional)". protocol.isimip.org. Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  11. ^ "Apecosm – Modelling open ocean pelagic ecosystems in the global ocean". Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  12. ^ "BOATS – Integrated Earth System Dynamics". Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  13. ^ Audzijonyte, Asta; Pethybridge, Heidi; Porobic, Javier; Gorton, Rebecca; Kaplan, Isaac; Fulton, Elizabeth A. (October 2019). Poisot, Timothée (ed.). "Atlantis : A spatially explicit end‐to‐end marine ecosystem model with dynamically integrated physics, ecology and socio‐economic modules". Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 10 (10): 1814–1819. doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13272. ISSN 2041-210X. S2CID 199632117.
  14. ^ "Osmose – Object-oriented Simulator of Marine Ecosystems". Retrieved 2021-11-19.
  15. ^ "Compared with climate, modelling of ecosystems is at an early stage". The Economist. 2021-06-15. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-10-27.
  16. ^ Gómara, Iñigo; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Polo, Irene; Coll, Marta (2021-02-18). "Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños". bioRxiv: 2021.02.17.431587. doi:10.1101/2021.02.17.431587. hdl:10261/230501. S2CID 231981566.
  17. ^ Pontavice, Hubert du; Gascuel, Didier; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Stock, Charles; Cheung, William W. L. (2021). "Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production". Global Change Biology. 27 (11): 2608–2622. Bibcode:2021GCBio..27.2608P. doi:10.1111/gcb.15576. ISSN 1365-2486. PMID 33660891. S2CID 232113515.
  18. ^ Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea; Tittensor, Derek P.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Cheung, William W. L.; Coll, Marta; Galbraith, Eric D.; Jennings, Simon; Maury, Olivier; Lotze, Heike K. (2019). "Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins". Global Change Biology. 25 (2): 459–472. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25..459B. doi:10.1111/gcb.14512. hdl:10261/175086. ISSN 1365-2486. PMID 30408274. S2CID 53244170.
  19. ^ Bryndum-Buchholz, A; Boyce, DG; Tittensor, DP; Christensen, V; Bianchi, D; Lotze, HK (2020-08-27). "Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean". Marine Ecology Progress Series. 648: 1–17. Bibcode:2020MEPS..648....1B. doi:10.3354/meps13438. ISSN 0171-8630. S2CID 225267165.
  20. ^ Boyce, Daniel G.; Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Carozza, David A.; Worm, Boris (2020-05-06). "Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps". Nature Communications. 11 (1): 2235. Bibcode:2020NatCo..11.2235B. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 7203146. PMID 32376884.
  21. ^ Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent (2019-06-25). "Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (26): 12907–12912. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11612907L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1900194116. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 6600926. PMID 31186360.
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