Ecological regression

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Ecological regression is a statistical technique used especially in political science and history to estimate group voting behavior from aggregate data. For example, if counties have a known Democratic vote (in percentage) D, and a known percentage of Catholics, C, then run the linear regression of dependent variable D against independent variable C. This gives D = a + bC. When C = 1 (100% Catholic) this gives the estimated Democratic vote as a+b. When C = 0 (0% Catholic), this gives the estimated non-Catholic vote as a. For example, if the regression gives D = .22 + .45C, then the estimated Catholic vote is 67% Democratic and the non-Catholic vote is 22% Democratic. The technique has been often used in litigation brought under the Voting Rights Act of 1965 to see how blacks and whites voted.[1]

See also[edit]


  1. ^ Jacob S. Siegel (2002). Applied Demography: Applications to Business, Government, Law and Public Policy. Emerald Group. p. 557. 

Further reading[edit]

  • Brown, Philip J.; Payne, Clive D. (1986). "Aggregate Data, Ecological Regression, and Voting Transitions". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 81 (394): 452–460. JSTOR 2289235.  advanced techniques
  • King, Gary; Martin Abba Tanner; Ori Rosen (2004). Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies. Cambridge University Press. 
  • Kousser, J. Morgan (1973). "Ecological Regression and the Analysis of past Politics". Journal of Interdisciplinary History. 4 (2): 237–262. JSTOR 202265.  with guide to the literature