Doomer
A Doomer is a peaknik that in addition to the normal peak oil concerns over oil depletion leading to a severe economic recession or Great Depression, also believes in the inevitability of a Malthusian Catastrophe at the end of the cheap oil era.
Use of the term
The term is commonly used in peaknik forums by way of introduction. Example: "Hi, I'm a Doomer from way back — I was convinced by the Club of Rome in the 1970's". Or it can also be used to describe a more momentary feeling. Example: "I think we can survive Peak Oil — but when I hear all the cliche denial from my friends I feel a bit more Doomer."
Common themes
A convinced Doomer believes that the Green Revolution will collapse at the end of cheap oil. According to Doomers, humanity will be in a state of overshoot after oil depletion makes modern farming methods economically unviable. Various academics have calculated that our numbers would then far exceed the carrying capacity of the earth. For example: they believe our situation is comparable to bacteria in a Petri Dish, with cheap oil as the human Growth medium. As the “cheap oil growth medium” is consumed and runs out, the “bacteria” dies off.
Doomers also hold a wide range of theories about the collapse of complex societies and systems. The influences of Thomas Malthus and the Club of Rome are present in the doomer movement, as are some of the more recent works by Joseph Tainter who wrote The Collapse of Complex Societies in 1988, and Richard C. Duncan who presented his Phd The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge in 1989 (now known as the Olduvai theory.) The lectures and DVD by Albert Bartlett, Arithmetic, Population and Energy is also highly influential. (See below for online video streaming of the lecture he has been presenting and refining for over 30 years.)
The common concerns are that of overpopulation leading to resource and energy depletion, soil degradation and environmental destruction all culminating in agricultural collapse and famine. Some Doomers estimate that the anarchic collapse will be so catastrophic that population levels may fall below the levels prior to the industrial revolution — possibly below 2 billion
The only solution to peak oil
The typical Doomer response to peak oil and the collapse of the industrial system is to “ignore civilization to death” by setting up a Permaculture village. This Survivalist mindset is what distinguishes the Doomer from the Peaknik. The Peaknik may spend many hours campaigning for peak oil awareness, societal change and changes in government policy, while Doomers would generally see this as a waste of valuable time. The Doomer focus is more on preparing the family and local community for the imminent collapse of civilization.
Peakniks and Doomers on a spectrum
Discussions on peaknik forums such as peakoil.com reveal a spectrum of positions between the "Peaknik" and the "Doomer". Some Peakniks do not believe the Olduvai theory at all, and campaign mainly to alleviate some of the stresses that will emerge in the coming recession / Depression. In the middle of the spectrum might be the Peakniks that fear the potential for a Malthusian catastrophe, but campaign to prevent it. On the other end of the scale are the confirmed Doomers that have already set up their "Lifeboat" survivalist permaculture farms. If this extreme Doomer raises awareness at all, it is to selectively encourage necessary tradespeople to join their eco-village, sharing the knowledge and skills of their essential trade or craft.
This tension between optimism and pessimism is appreciated by Peaknik author Richard Heinberg in his book, Powerdown, who argues that local communities should immediately learn how to provide for their own power, water, and food security, while also campaigning for awareness on a State, Federal, and International level. Richard Heinberg admits that the ideal situation would be for the United Nations and Federal Governments to step in and institute a massive "war-time economy" shifting the industrial world from oil dependency. However he argues that there is the strong possibility that societal awareness is all too little too late to prevent "dieoff". As the future is so uncertain, Heinberg argues that the wisest course of action for the local community is to prepare for the implosion of modern infrastructure while also campaigning to prevent this disaster.
The more convinced Doomer would typically refer to the peaknik movie The End of Suburbia as peak oil lite — for those who cannot handle their peak oil straight. While the last 15 minutes of The End of Suburbia focuses on the local community solutions of New Urbanism, the Doomer would argue that the movie fails to describe the inevitable Malthusian catastrophe, and implies that somehow the majority of modern society will successfully transition into New Urbanism. The convinced Doomer rejects this outright as an ecological and energetic impossibility without the Green Revolution.
External links
A doomer is heavily influenced by the websites
- Dieoff.com
- Life after the oil crash
- Wolf at the door
- postcarbon.org (doomer activist website)
- Community Solution (doomer activist website)
The definitive lecture "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" by Dr Albert Bartlett is now on video streaming at