Super Bowl indicator
The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in the '70s when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).
As of January 2020, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 53 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 75%. However, since a particular football league winning a Super Bowl and the US Stock market have no apparent connection this is almost certainly a coincidence. Therefore, there is no reason to expect it will work as a predictor of future bull or bear markets.
- Benjamin Snyder. "Super Bowl Stock Predictor Has a Streak Going". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2017. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- Mikkelson, Barbara & David P. "The Super Bowl Indicator" at Snopes.com: Urban Legends Reference Pages.
- Don Peppers. "Big Data. Super Bowl. Small Minds". Retrieved December 31, 2015. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)