Super Bowl indicator

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The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in the '70s when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

Data[edit]

Year Team League Conference Market Correct
2000 Rams NFL NFC Decrease No
2001 Ravens exp AFC Decrease Yes
2002 Patriots AFL AFC Decrease Yes
2003 Buccaneers exp NFC Increase Yes
2004 Patriots AFL AFC Increase No
2005 Patriots AFL AFC Decrease Yes
2006 Steelers NFL AFC Increase Yes
2007 Colts NFL AFC Increase Yes
2008 Giants NFL NFC Decrease No
2009 Steelers NFL AFC Increase Yes
2010 Saints NFL NFC Increase Yes
2011 Packers NFL NFC Increase Yes
2012 Giants NFL NFC Increase Yes
2013 Ravens exp AFC Increase No
2014 Seahawks exp NFC Increase Yes
2015 Patriots AFL AFC Decrease Yes
2016 Broncos AFL AFC Increase No

Accuracy[edit]

As of January 2017, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 50 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 80%.[1][2] However, since a particular football league winning a Super Bowl and the US Stock market have no real connection this is just a coincidence. Therefore, there is no reason to expect it will work as a predictor of future bull markets.[3]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Benjamin Snyder. "Super Bowl Stock Predictor Has a Streak Going". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2017. 
  2. ^ Mikkelson, Barbara & David P. "The Super Bowl Indicator" at Snopes.com: Urban Legends Reference Pages.
  3. ^ Don Peppers. "Big Data. Super Bowl. Small Minds.". Retrieved December 31, 2015.