Talk:Polymarket
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Request edits for March 2024
[edit]![]() | This edit request by an editor with a conflict of interest has now been answered. |
Hi editors. This article is very short and lacks a lot of information about the company. I have several ideas for adding sources and content to improve the page. I work for Polymarket and understand that I can’t do this myself. I’d appreciate anyone who has the time to look these over.
1. Please add an Infobox to the page:
![]() | |
Original author(s) | |
---|---|
Developer(s) | Shayne Coplan |
Platform | Ethereum |
Available in | English |
Type | Prediction Market Platform |
License | Free software (GPL) |
Website | polymarket |
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:22, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
2. Please add a sentence to become the new third sentence in the Lead paragraph:
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain.[1]
Reason for the change:
The current Lead paragraph is missing fundamental information about how the company operates. The suggested addition is based on reporting in a high quality source.
Done
3. Please add a new section called “History”directly after the first paragraph:
“History”
Founded by Shayne Coplan,[2] Polymarket launched in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[3] The company was founded on the idea that by providing real time forecasts on events as they unfolded, Polymarket could function as an alternative to traditional news sources.[1]
Reason for the change:
“History” is a standard feature in Wikipedia articles and the suggested first paragraph uses reliable reporting to provide important details about the company’s founding and purpose.
Not done WP:PROMO Encoded Talk 💬 07:23, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
- @Encoded:Thanks for your help with these updates. Here’s a revised suggestion for the first sentence of the first paragraph of the History section. Based on your feedback, I stripped the language down to key information about the company that is currently missing from the section.
- Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan[4] in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[3]
- Thanks for looking this over.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC)
4. Please add a paragraph to become the second paragraph of the newly created History section:
Coplan designed Polymarket on the Ethereum blockchain network.[1]
Reason for the change:
The suggested paragraph uses reporting from a reliable media source to describe a fundamental aspect of the company’s founding.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
5. Please move what should now be the fourth paragraph of the newly created History section to become the second paragraph of the History section:
In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including not registering as a Swap Execution Facility.[5][6]
Reason for the change:
The event described happens earlier in the company History than the event described in the current third paragraph. Moving it brings the section into chronological order.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
6. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section proposed in item 3:
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.[7]
Reason for the change:
The suggested paragraph describes developments in the company’s history that were covered in a prominent news source.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
7. Please replace what should now be the fifth paragraph of the newly created History section:
Events on which bets have been placed included the outcome of the Titan submersible investigation and the likelihood of Russia utilising nuclear weapons.[8]
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
Please replace with:
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company reported that interest around the company increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral;[9] the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date[9] rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers.[3] Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.[3]
Reason for the change:
The existing paragraph is missing important chronological detail and is written in the present tense. The suggested replacement uses reporting in highly reputable news sources to place the events in chronological order and expands details around the event.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
Thanks very much for reviewing these suggestions. Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC)
Updates for June 2024
[edit]![]() | This edit request by an editor with a conflict of interest has now been answered. |
Hi editors. This page is missing basic biographical details like the name of founder and date of founding. I have some suggestions for adding that information as well as other updates. I work for Polymarket and won’t make these edits myself. I appreciate any editor who has time to take a look. Thanks.
@Encoded: Thanks for your help with the last round of updates. Wondering if you’d like to look these over as well?
1. In the History section, please add a sentence to become the second sentence of the first paragraph:
According to the CTFC, Polymarket offered “substantial cooperation” throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.[4]
Reason for the change:
The sentence adds context around the company’s involvement in the investigation which was noteworthy enough to be reported in a leading media source.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
2. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section: In May 2024, it was announced that Polymarket had raised $70 million across two rounds of funding.[10] The rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Theil.[4]
Reason for the change:
The paragraph adds information about the company’s history as reported in two high profile media sources that covered the development.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
3. Please add a paragraph to become the new fifth paragraph of the History section: In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform[11] with over $125 million wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.[4]
Reason for the change:
Reporting on previous wagers is already included in the article. Adding information is an update to the section based on reporting in high quality media sources.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
4. Please remove the warning template from the top of the article. Reason for the change:
With the addition of the new sources included in these edit requests, Polymarket has been the subject of in-depth feature coverage in NBC News, Bloomberg Forbes, and an article in Mother Jones. (I have included extended quotations from the paywalled Bloomberg article to give editors a sense of the coverage) As such, the article meets the notability guidelines for companies.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) 16:41, 5 July 2024 (UTC)
- @Jbening: Thanks so much for addressing the notability issue. Would you mind taking a look at the other three edits I suggested? Mathlover111 (talk) 19:34, 8 July 2024 (UTC)
Thank you for taking the time to look over these updates.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC)
Already done by jbening, closing the request. Rusalkii (talk) 23:01, 12 July 2024 (UTC)
accuracy
[edit]From a quick search on Bing lead me to find this source and it may be useful to help expand this article
the question is is it reliable? if so we can draft up a section about polymarkets accuracy.
thanks
Daisytheduck quack quack 10:17, 3 September 2024 (UTC)
Manipulation attempt
[edit]rajivsethi.substack.com/p/a-failed-attempt-at-prediction-market is pretty interesting (you'll have to paste the url since I don't seem to be able to post actual links). Apparently there are derivative contracts indexed to who is leading on the Polymarket presidential election market for the majority of a specific 3-hour period. So just before that time (last Friday, Sept 6), Kamala Harris was a little bit behind Donald Trump, so some traders dumped a pile of money (millions) into Polymarket to temporarily nudge Harris into the lead at just the right moment. That in turn was supposed to make the derivative contracts go from near-worthless to highly valuable. The attempt didn't quite work because they didn't hold the edge for quite long enough, or something like that. But it shows that the markets can be moved around, and since their predictions can be self-fulfilling, it is a form of election manipulation as well. I think the incident should be mentioned in the Polymarket article. I think it is ok to cite Sethi's substack post for this (he is an economics professor who works in the area of information and beliefs (economics.barnard.edu/profiles/rajiv-sethi). There may be some other sources by now too (I haven't looked). 2601:644:8581:75B0:0:0:0:8C8A (talk) 09:37, 10 September 2024 (UTC)
- ^ a b c Jakobson, Leo (20 October 2020). "With $4M round, Polymarket predicts success". Modern Consensus. Retrieved 1 March 2024.
- ^ Pickering, Andy (5 October 2020). "The Information Market – Polymarket lets traders bet on real-world events". Brave New Coin. Retrieved 4 March 2024.
- ^ a b c d "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. 2023-07-10. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- ^ a b c d Folk, Zachary (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear". Forbes. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
- ^ "CFTC Fines Polymarket and Issues a Cease and Desist". Yahoo Finance. 2022-01-04. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- ^ "Event-Betting Platform Polymarket to Pay $1.4 Million U.S. Fine". Bloomberg.com. 2022-01-03. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- ^ Natarajan, Sridhar (19 May 2022). "Crypto Betting Service Polymarket Taps Ex-CFTC Head as Chair After Agency Probe". Bloomberg. Retrieved 1 March 2024.
- ^ "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. 2023-07-10. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- ^ a b Breland, Ali (23 June 2023). "Meet the Internet Gamblers Who Won Big Betting on the Submarine's Fate". Mother Jones. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
- ^ Natarajan, Sridhar; Pan, David (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment". Bloomberg. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
Polymarket has raised $70 million across two rounds, with the most recent raise led by Founders Fund...
- ^ Natarajan, Sridhar; Pan, David (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment". Bloomberg. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
Election betting has driven the biggest surge in activity on Polymarket, with more than $170 million wagered on events tied to the US elections...