Target ridings in the Canadian federal election, 2006

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The 39th Canadian federal election was held on January 23, 2006.

The target ridings are the ridings that were won by a narrow margin in the preceding election, making them promising campaign targets in the election in question.[1] Below is the list target ridings for the 2006 federal election that were narrowly lost by each major party in the 2004 election, with indications whether they were won or lost by the incumbent in the 2006 election.

Up to 30 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%. For example, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning in 2004 but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious in 2004 (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, between the winning candidate and the runner-up. Finally, the 2006 election winners are listed in italics. Bold ridings indicate successful gains.

To clarify further; this is a list of 2004 federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin of victory as a percentage of the vote.

* Indicates incumbent did not seek re-election.

Liberal Party Conservative Party
  1. Simcoe—Grey, ON (Cons) 0.18% → Cons
  2. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre, SK (Cons) 0.39% → Cons
  3. Cambridge, ON (Cons) 0.43% → Cons
  4. Kildonan—St. Paul, MB (Cons) 0.77% → Cons
  5. Burnaby—New Westminster, BC (NDP) 0.79% → NDP
  6. Saskatoon—Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.23% → Cons
  7. Newton—North Delta, BC (Cons) 1.26%* → Lib
  8. Niagara West—Glanbrook, ON (Cons) 1.28% → Cons
  9. Newmarket—Aurora, ON (Lib) 1.34% (Cons. MP Belinda Stronach later joined the Libs.) → Lib
  10. Essex, ON (Cons) 1.61% → Cons
  11. Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia, MB (Cons) 1.74% → Cons
  12. Sault Ste. Marie, ON (NDP) 1.75% → NDP
  13. Timmins—James Bay, ON (NDP) 1.80% → NDP
  14. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC (BQ) 1.89% → BQ
  15. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, QC (BQ) 2.057% → BQ
  16. Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.060% → NDP
  17. Niagara Falls, ON (Cons) 2.21% → Cons
  18. Halifax, NS (NDP) 2.43% → NDP
  19. Durham, ON (Cons) 2.48% → Cons
  20. Oshawa, ON (Cons) 2.74% → Cons
  21. West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC (Cons) 2.78%* → Lib
  22. Haldimand—Norfolk, ON (Cons) 3.30% → Cons
  23. Dufferin—Caledon, ON (Cons) 3.80% → Cons
  24. St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL (Cons) 4.31% → Cons
  25. Wellington—Halton Hills, ON (Cons) 4.59% → Cons
  26. St. John's East, NL (Cons) 4.75% → Cons
  27. Prince Edward—Hastings, ON (Cons) 4.79% → Cons
  28. Toronto—Danforth, ON (NDP) 5.00% → NDP
  29. Churchill (NDP/Ind.) 5.08% → Lib
  30. Vaudreuil—Soulanges, QC (BQ) 5.50% → BQ
  1. Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, AB (Lib/Ind.) 0.3%* → Cons
  2. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, ON (Lib) 0.3%* → Cons
  3. Northumberland—Quinte West, ON (Lib) 0.6% → Cons
  4. Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON (Lib) 0.9%* → Cons
  5. Edmonton Centre, AB (Lib) 1.4% → Cons
  6. Ottawa West—Nepean, ON (Lib) 2.4%* → Cons
  7. Barrie, ON (Lib) 2.6% → Cons
  8. North Vancouver, BC (Lib) 3.6% → Lib
  9. Ottawa—Orléans, ON (Lib) 4.7% → Cons
  10. Brant, ON (Lib) 5.0% → Lib
  11. Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON (Lib) 5.1% → Cons
  12. Nipissing—Timiskaming, ON (Lib) 5.2% → Lib
  13. Brampton West, ON (Lib) 5.3% → Lib
  14. Burnaby—New Westminster, BC (NDP) 5.4% → NDP
  15. Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 5.5%* → NDP
  16. Simcoe North, ON (Lib) 5.7%* → Cons
  17. St. Catharines, ON (Lib) 5.7% → Cons
  18. Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, NL (Lib) 6.6% → Lib
  19. Burlington, ON (Lib) 6.7% → Cons
  20. Kitchener—Conestoga, ON (Lib) 6.9% → Cons
  21. Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC (BQ) 7.3% → Cons
  22. Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON (Lib) 7.5% → Cons
  23. Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Lib) 8.6% → Cons
  24. Whitby—Oshawa, ON (Lib) 9.0% → Cons
  25. Ottawa South, ON (Lib) 9.0% → Lib
  26. Richmond, BC (Lib) 9.2% → Lib
  27. West Nova, NS (Lib) 9.6% → Lib
  28. Saint John, NB (Lib) 9.7% → Lib
  29. Halton, ON (Lib) 10.0% → Cons
  30. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON (Lib) 10.4%* → Cons
Bloc Québécois New Democratic Party
  1. Jeanne-Le Ber, QC (Lib) 0.2% → BQ
  2. Papineau, QC (Lib) 1.1% → BQ
  3. Gatineau, QC (Lib) 1.8% → BQ
  4. Brome—Missisquoi, QC (Lib) 2.4% → BQ
  5. Ahuntsic, QC (Lib) 2.5% → BQ
  6. Brossard—La Prairie, QC (Lib) 4.9% → BQ
  7. Beauce, QC (Lib) 5.1%* → Cons
  8. Honoré-Mercier, QC (Lib) 5.7% → Lib
  9. Outremont, QC (Lib) 7.7% → Lib
  10. Pontiac, QC (Lib) 9.2% → Cons
  11. Hull—Aylmer, QC (Lib) 9.4% → Lib
  12. Laval—Les Îles, QC (Lib) 10.8% → Lib
  13. Bourassa, QC (Lib) 12.2% → Lib
  1. Western Arctic, NT (Lib) 0.3% → NDP
  2. New Westminster—Coquitlam, BC (Cons) 0.3% → NDP
  3. Palliser, SK (Cons) 0.4% → Cons
  4. Vancouver Island North, BC (Cons) 0.9% → NDP
  5. Oshawa, ON (Cons) 1.0% → Cons
  6. Saskatoon—Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.1% → Cons
  7. British Columbia Southern Interior, BC (Cons) 1.5%* → NDP
  8. Trinity—Spadina, ON (Lib) 1.6% → NDP
  9. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON (Lib) 1.9% → NDP
  10. Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 1.9% → NDP
  11. Vancouver Kingsway, BC (Lib) 3.1% → Lib
  12. Regina—Qu'Appelle, SK (Cons) 3.1% → Cons
  13. Newton—North Delta, BC (Cons) 3.6%* → Lib
  14. Victoria, BC (Lib) 3.9%* → NDP
  15. Kenora, ON (Lib) 4.1% → Lib
  16. Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.7% → Lib
  17. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission, BC (Cons) 5.8% → Cons
  18. Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre, SK (Cons) 6.4% → Cons
  19. Nanaimo—Alberni, BC (Cons) 6.8% → Cons
  20. Parkdale—High Park, ON (Lib) 7.6% → NDP
  21. London—Fanshawe, ON (Lib) 7.7%* → NDP
  22. Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Cons) 7.8% → Cons
  23. Nickel Belt, ON (Lib) 7.9% → Lib
  24. Vancouver Centre, BC (Lib) 8.0% → Lib
  25. Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Cons) 8.6% → Cons
  26. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, ON (Lib) 9.2% → Lib
  27. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (Lib) 9.6% → Lib
  28. Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON (Lib) 9.7% → Lib
  29. Welland, ON (Lib) 10.1% → Lib
  30. Random—Burin—St. George's, NL (Lib) 13.5% → Lib

Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004[edit]

  1. Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC (defeated in 2006)
  2. Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT (defeated in 2006)
  3. Pierre Pettigrew, Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC (defeated in 2006)
  4. Belinda Stronach, Human Resources and Skills Development: 1.3% over Lib in Newmarket—Aurora, ON; elected as a Conservative, Stronach defected to the Liberals on May 17, 2005. (re-elected in 2006)
  5. Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB (defeated in 2006)
  6. Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON (defeated in 2006)
  7. Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON (defeated in 2006)
  8. David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC (re-elected in 2006)
  9. Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC (defeated in 2006)