User:Cmkahler

This user is a member of WikiProject Meteorology.

Meteorology 5140 Wiki Project Page

Wiki Project Proposal

I am interested in doing an investigation into the development of the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis or RTMA. The RTMA is a surface analysis currently being created by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which is a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The ability to model the atmosphere numerically is very interesting to me. I realize that I have limited knowledge of data assimilation and the physics that go into numerical weather predicition, but I hope with further study, I may be able to gain an insight that would help me to better understand the model output. My intentions with this project is to provide some background about the RTMA, why it was created, and be able to demonstrate some measure of performance. A secondary goal of this project is to possibly provide a forum where people that are involved with the development and evaluation of the RTMA may choose to share ideas to further enhance the analysis. In addition to my previously stated reasons for choosing this topic, I am currently reviewing the perfomance of the RTMA for work, and I feel this project would give me some additional time to focus on my evaluation.

Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) - Rough Draft

Description: The RTMA is an hourly objective analysis of high-resolution gridded surface meteorological parameters. The initial parameters for the RTMA contain temperature, dew point, wind speed and direction, one-hour precipitation estimate, and equivalent cloud amount (ECA). All of the initial parameters are generated by NCEP, except for the ECA, which are produced by The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). The ECA parameter is a GOES-based product. The RTMA is currently being produced for the CONtinental United States (CONUS), with future plans to include the Outside of the CONtinental United States (OCONUS).

Applications and Benefits: The RTMA has several possible applications and benefits. Since the RTMA is near-real time, it can be used as a tool to provide information for short-term forecast updates. The RTMA can also be used as a measure of "truth" for forecast verification. Archived RTMA analyses may also be used for scientific and historical investigations.

Analysis Creation: The RTMA is produced from the 2D-VAR (Two-Dimensional Variational Analysis) version of NCEP’s GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation). A downscaled one-hour RUC (Rapid Update Cycle)-13 numerical model forecast is used for the background for the RTMA. Analysis uncertainty is created each hour for the temperature, dew point, wind direction and wind speed parameters. The units for the uncertainty values are expressed in the same units as the parameter. The analysis uncertainty values depend on observation density and quality, background field quality, and other factors. Precipitation estimates are created from Stage II analysis information, which includes rain-gauge measurements and radar reflectivity data. The ECA analysis is dependent on cloud coverage and opacity, it is derived from radiances of different absorptions of carbon dioxide.

Measure of Performance: When is an analysis good enough? That is one of the first questions that must be answered. Plots an images will be shown that demonstrate measures of performance over the Salt Lake Valley, for both the operational and developmental (parallel) versions of the RTMA, along with the background field (downscaled RUC). Error statistics will be calculated within a box that encompasses the Salt Lake Valley and the immediate surrounding terrain. Statistics will be calculated by day, hour, and elevation.

Article Assessments

Featured Article (FA): An article that has passed a peer review and has demonstrated "accuracy, neutrality, completeness". Readers would describe the article as "Definitive. Outstanding, thorough article; a great source for encyclopedic information".
A-Class Article (A): A well written and illustrated article that could considered to be a featured article. Readers would describe the article as "Very useful to readers. A fairly complete treatment of the subject. A non-expert in the subject matter would typically find nothing wanting. May miss a few relevant points".
Good Article (GA): A thoughtful article without obvious errors. Readers would describe the article as "Very useful to readers. A fairly complete treatment of the subject. A non-expert in the subject matter would typically find nothing wanting. May miss a few relevant points".
B-Class Article (B): An article that may have meaningful information but has significant gaps. Readers would describe the article as "Useful to many, but not all, readers. A casual reader flipping through articles would feel that they generally understood the topic, but a serious student or researcher trying to use the material would have trouble doing so, or would risk error in derivative work".
Start Class Article (Start): An article that may have a substantial amount of information, but still may be weak in many areas. Readers would describe the article as "Useful to some, provides a moderate amount of information, but many readers will need to find additional sources of information. The article clearly needs to be expanded".
Stub Class Article (Stub): A rough collection of ideas about a topic. Readers would describe the article as "Possibly useful to someone who has no idea what the term meant. May be useless to a reader only passingly familiar with the term. At best a brief, informed dictionary definition".

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