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  • working up material on scenario analysis
Scenario analysis

Energy modeling

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Scenario analysis is widely used in energy system modeling.

  • IPCC WG3 AR5 chapter 7 (2014)[1]
  • Cao et al (2016)[2]
  • Scenario method[3]
  • IRGC study on future energy demand[5]
  • Scenarios in the EU Energy Roadmap 2050[6]



  1. ^ Bruckner, Thomas; Bashmakov, Igor Alexeyevic; Mulugetta, Yacob; et al. (2014). "Chapter 7: Energy systems". In IPCC (ed.). Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. pp. 511–597. ISBN 978-1-107-65481-5. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  2. ^ Cao, Karl-Kiên; Cebulla, Felix; Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J; Mousavi, Babak; Prehofer, Sigrid (28 September 2016). "Raising awareness in model-based energy scenario studies — a transparency checklist". Energy, Sustainability and Society. 6 (1): 28–47. doi:10.1186/s13705-016-0090-z. ISSN 2192-0567. Retrieved 2016-10-04.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link) Open access icon
  3. ^ Wright, George; Goodwin, Paul (October 2009). "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method" (PDF). International Journal of Forecasting. 25 (4): 813–825. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019. ISSN 0169-2070. Retrieved 2016-10-05.
  4. ^ Börjeson, Lena; Höjer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Ekvall, Tomas; Finnveden, Göran (September 2006). "Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide". Futures. 38 (7): 723–739. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002. ISSN 0016-3287. The energy system consists of an integrated set of technical and economic activities operating within a complex societal framework.
  5. ^ IRGC (2015). Assessment of future energy demand: a methodological review providing guidance to developers and users of energy models and scenarios (PDF). Lausanne, Switzerland: International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Retrieved 2016-10-05. (registration required)
  6. ^ Description of scenarios in the Energy Roadmap 2050 — SEC(2011) 1565 Part 2/2 (PDF). Brussels, Belgium: European Commission. 2011. Retrieved 2016-10-06. The six models used are listed in table 6, p 111.
  7. ^ acatech; Lepoldina; Akademienunion, eds. (2016). Consulting with energy scenarios: requirements for scientific policy advice (PDF). Berlin, Germany: acatech — National Academy of Science and Engineering. ISBN 978-3-8047-3550-7. Retrieved 2 May 2016.

Junk

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  • evince ~/synk/pdfs/2014-ipcc-wg3-ar5-full.pdf &