User:Runningonbrains/tornado/prediction and detection

Prediction and detection

Probabilistic maps issued by the Storm Prediction Center during the heart of the April 6-8, 2006 Tornado Outbreak. The top map indicates the risk of general severe weather (including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes), while the bottom map specifically shows the percent risk of a tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of any point within the enclosed area. The hashed area on the bottom map indicates a 10% or greater risk of an F2 or stronger tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of a point.

United States

In the United States, severe weather predictions are issued by the Storm Prediction Center, based in Norman, Oklahoma. Issued for the next three days, as well as for the four through eight day period, they will determine the probability of severe weather, including tornadoes. The SPC uses computer models, such as the NAM, GFS, WRF, and RUC to predict severe weather. They issue their outlooks based on data from these models, using such indicies as Lifted Index, CAPE, as well as temperature and dewpoint.

Warnings are issued by the regional National Weather Service offices, while Watches are issued directly from the SPC.

The National Weather Service trains Skywarn spotters, consisting of local sheriff's deputies, state troopers, and ordinary citizens, to spot key features of storms which indicate severe hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. When severe weather is anticipated, local weather service offices request that these spotters be on the lookout for severe weather, and report any possible tornadoes immediately, so the office can issue a timely warning.

United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, predictions are handled by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO).