Zelinsky Model
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The Zelinsky Model of Migration Transition, also known as the Migration Transition Model, claims that the type of migration that occurs within a country depends on how developed it is or what type of society it is. A connection is drawn from migration to the stages of within the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). It was developed by Wilbur Zelinsky (1921-2013), longtime professor of geography at the Pennsylvania State University.
Model Stages
Phase one (“Premodern traditional society”): This is before the onset of the urbanization, and there is very little migration. Natural increase rates are about zero.
Phase two (“Early transitional society”): There is “massive movement from countryside to cities... as a community experiences the process of modernisation”. There is “rapid rate of natural increase”. Internationally, there is a high rate of emigration, though the total population is still rising.
Phase three (“Late transitional society”): This phase corresponds to the “critical rung...of the mobility transition” where urban-to-urban migration surpasses the rural-to-urban migration, where rural-to-urban migration “continues but at waning absolute or relative rates”, and a “complex migrational and circulatory movements within the urban network, from city to city or within a single metropolitan region” increased, non-economic migration and circulation began to emerge. Here, the net-out migration trend shifts to a net-in migration trend as more people immigrate than emigrate.
Phase four (“Advanced society”): The “movement from countryside to city continues but is further reduced in absolute and relative terms, vigorous movement of migrants from city to city and within individual urban agglomerations...especially within a highly elaborated lattice of major and minor metropolises” is observed. Significant urban to suburban migration also occurs. There is “slight to moderate rate of natural increase or none at all”.
Phase five (“Future superadvanced society”): “Nearly all residential migration may be of the interurban and intraurban variety….No plausible predictions of fertility behaviour,...a stable mortality pattern slightly below present levels”.