Higher education bubble in the United States

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Nerd271 (talk | contribs) at 16:11, 21 September 2022 (→‎Recommendations: Does not belong.). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

This article is part of a series on
Education in the
United States
Summary
Issues
Levels of education
icon Education portal
flag United States portal

The higher education bubble in the United States is the concern that excessive investment in higher education could have negative repercussions in the broader economy. Although college tuition payments are rising, the supply of college graduates in many fields of study is exceeding the demand for their skills, which aggravates graduate unemployment and underemployment while increasing the burden of student loan defaults on financial institutions and taxpayers.[1][2][3] The claim has generally been used to justify cuts to public higher education spending, tax cuts, or a shift of government spending towards law enforcement and national security.[4][5][6][7] There is a further concern that having an excess supply of college graduates exacerbates political instability,[8][9][10] historically linked to having a bulge in the number of young degree holders.[11][12][13]

Some economists reject the notion of a higher education bubble, noting that the returns on higher education vastly outweigh the cost,[14][15][16][17] while others believe that the number of institutions of higher education in the United States will fall in the 2020s and beyond, citing reasons of demographic decline, poor outcomes, economic problems, and changing public interests and attitudes.[18][19][20][21] According to the U.S. Department of Education, by the late 2010s, people with technical or vocational trainings are slightly more likely to be employed than those with a bachelor's degree and significantly more likely to be employed in their fields of specialty. The United States currently suffers from a shortage of skilled tradespeople.[22] The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted in 2019 that investment in higher education has reached a point of diminishing marginal returns;[23] undergraduate and graduate enrollments have both been in decline.[24][25] Many faculty members are leaving academia,[26] especially those from the humanities.[27]

Discussion

Tuition cost of college
Tuition cost of college

The "higher education bubble" is a source of controversy among economists. Data shows that the wage premium, the difference between what those with a four-year college degree earn and what those with only a high school education earn, has increased dramatically since the 1970s, but so has the 'debt load' incurred by students due to the tuition inflation.[14][15][16]

Research from the Center for Household Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, presented in 2018, predicts a declining but still positive income premium for completing college but a declining wealth premium, which is almost indistinguishable from zero for the most recent cohort.[28] The data also suggests that, notwithstanding a slight increase in 2008–09, student loan default rates have declined since the mid-1980s and 1990s.[29][30] Those with college degrees are much less likely than those without to be unemployed, even though they are more expensive to employ (they earn higher wages).[31] The management consulting firm McKinsey & Company projects a shortage of college-educated workers and a surplus of workers without college degrees, which would cause the wage premium to increase and cause differences in unemployment rates to become even more dramatic.[32]

In 1971, Time ran the article "Education: Graduates and Jobs: A Grave New World" which stated that the supply of PhD students was 30 to 50 percent larger than the expected future demand in upcoming decades.[33] In 1987, U.S. Secretary of Education William Bennett suggested that the availability of loans may be fueling an increase in tuition prices and an education bubble.[34] This "Bennett hypothesis" claims that readily available loans allow schools to increase tuition without regard to demand elasticity. College rankings are partially driven by spending levels,[35] and higher tuition is also correlated with increased public perceptions of prestige.[36] Over the past thirty years, demand has increased as institutions improved facilities and provided more resources to students.[37]

A variation on the hypothesis suggests that there is no general bubble in higher education (on average, higher education really does boost income and employment by more than enough to make it a good investment) but that degrees in some specific fields may be overvalued because they do little to boost income or improve job prospects, and degrees in other fields may in fact be undervalued because students do not appreciate the extent to which these degrees could benefit their employment prospects and future income. Proponents of the theory have noted that schools charge equal prices for tuition regardless of what students study, but the interest rate on federal student loans is not adjusted according to risk, and there is evidence that undergraduate students in their first three years of college are not very good at predicting future wages by major.[14]

A study from the Labor Department found that a bachelor's degree "represents a significant advantage in the job market."[38] In 2011, The Chronicle of Higher Education ran an article saying that the future is bright for college graduates.[39] Glenn Reynolds argued in his book, The Higher Education Bubble, that higher education as a "product grows more and more elaborate—and more expensive—but the expense is offset by cheap credit provided by sellers who are eager to encourage buyers to buy."[40]

Due to popular demand, the cost of higher education has grown at a rate faster than inflation between the late 20th and early 21st centuries.[41] The 2010s were a turbulent period for higher education in the United States, as small private colleges from across the country face deep financial trouble due to higher tuition discounts in order to attract students at a time of expensive higher education costs, tougher regulation, and the fact that the college-aged population has declined.[42] A 2019 analysis by Moody's Investor Services estimated that about 20% of all small private liberal arts colleges in the United States were in serious financial trouble.[20] Institutions address these challenges by dropping programs with low student interest, including many in the liberal arts and the humanities, like gender studies and critical race theory,[43] and creating majors for emerging fields, such as artificial intelligence, and investing in online learning programs.[42] The arrival of COVID-19 in the United States in 2020 merely accelerated the process.[44] The novel coronavirus not only wrought havoc on the nation but also caused a severe economic downturn. Consequently, families chose to either delay or avoid sending their children to institutions of higher education altogether.[45] Worse still for colleges and universities, they have become dependent on foreign students for revenue because they pay full tuition fees and the international restrictions imposed to alleviate the spread of the pandemic mean that this stream of revenue will shrink substantially.[44] Several permanently closed their doors by the end of the 2019–20 academic year.[46] Numerous institutions, including elite ones, have suspended graduate programs in the humanities and liberal arts due to low student interest and dim employment prospects.[47][48] Various polls indicate that growing numbers of Americans have become skeptical of the value of higher education relative to the cost.[49] Having witnessed the Millennials accumulating large amounts of student debts, members of Generation Z tend to be more skeptical of the value of higher education[50] and more open to alternative educational routes and career options.[51] Some employers are now hiring fresh graduates from high school.[25]

In 2019, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using data from the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances demonstrated that after controlling for race and age cohort, families with heads of household with post-secondary education who were born before 1980 have benefited from wealth and income premiums, while for families with heads of household with post-secondary education but born after 1980 the wealth premium has weakened to point of statistical insignificance (in part because of the rising cost of college). Moreover, although the income premium remains positive, it has declined to historic lows (with more pronounced downward trajectories with heads of household with postgraduate degrees).[23]

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, colleges and universities saw an increase in the number of faculty members leaving academia, citing low pay, stressful work environments, heavy workloads, lack of administrative support, and occupational burnout.[26] Moreover, lecturers and professors in the humanities face a highly precarious job market.[27] Graduates who majored in the humanities and the liberal arts in the 2010s were most likely to regret having done so and had lower expected incomes than their counterparts in STEM.[52]

Between the early 2000s and the late 2010s, the number of students from emerging economies going abroad for higher education increased,[53] and the United States was the most popular destination for international students, many of whom were from mainland China.[54] However, deteriorating Sino-American relations and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of Chinese students enrolling in many U.S. colleges and universities.[53][55]

Controversy

College Degree Returns by Average 2011 Annual Out-of-Pocket Costs, from B. Caplan's The Case Against Education
First-year U.S. college degree returns for select majors, by type of student.
Study comparing college revenue per student by tuition and state funding in 2008 dollars[56]

The view that higher education is a bubble is debated. Some economists do not think that returns to a college education are falling but instead believe that the benefits far outweigh the costs.[14][15][16][57] Yet, the returns for marginal students or students in certain majors, especially at costly private universities, may not justify the investment.[58] It has been suggested that the returns to education should be compared to the returns to other forms of investment such as the stock market, bonds, real estate, and private equity. A higher return would suggest underinvestment in higher education, but lower returns would suggest a bubble.[59] Studies have typically found a causal relationship between growth and education, although the quality and type of education matters, and not just the number of years of schooling.[60][61][62][63]

In a financial bubble, assets like houses are sometimes purchased with a view to reselling at a higher price, and this can produce rapidly escalating prices as people speculate on future prices. An end to the spiral can provoke abrupt selling of the assets, resulting in an abrupt collapse in price – the bursting of the bubble. Because the asset acquired through college attendance – a higher education – cannot be sold but only rented through wages, there is no similar mechanism that would cause an abrupt collapse in the value of existing degrees. For this reason, this analogy could be misleading. However, one rebuttal to the claims that a bubble analogy is misleading is the observation that the 'bursting' of the bubble are the negative effects on students who incur student debt, for example, as the American Association of State Colleges and Universities reports that "Students are deeper in debt today than ever before.... The trend of heavy debt burdens threatens to limit access to higher education, particularly for low-income and first-generation students, who tend to carry the heaviest debt burden. Federal student aid policy has steadily put resources into student loan programs rather than need-based grants, a trend that straps future generations with high debt burdens. Even students who receive federal grant aid are finding it more difficult to pay for college."[64]

However, the data actually show that notwithstanding a slight increase in 2008–2009, student loan default rates have declined since the mid-1980s and 1990s.[29][30] During both periods of growth and recession, those with college degrees are much less likely than those without to be unemployed, even though they earn higher wages.[31]

Ohio University economist Richard Vedder has written in The Wall Street Journal that:

A key measure of the benefits of a degree is the college graduate's earning potential – and on this score, their advantage over high-school graduates is deteriorating. Since 2006, the gap between what the median college graduate earned compared with the median high-school graduate has narrowed by $1,387 for men over 25 working full time, a 5% fall. Women in the same category have fared worse, losing 7% of their income advantage ($1,496). A college degree's declining value is even more pronounced for younger Americans. According to data collected by the College Board, for those in the 25–34 age range, the differential between college graduate and high school graduate earnings fell 11% for men, to $18,303 from $20,623. The decline for women was an extraordinary 19.7%, to $14,868 from $18,525. Meanwhile, the cost of college has increased 16.5% in 2012 dollars since 2006, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' higher education tuition-fee index.[65]

Alternatives to bubble hypothesis

A different explanation for rising tuition is the reduction of state and federal appropriations to colleges, making them more reliant on student tuition. Thus, it is not a bubble but a form of shifting costs away from state and federal funding over to students.[66] This has mostly applied to public universities which in 2011 for the first time have taken in more in tuition than in state funding[66] and had the greatest increases in tuition.[56] Implied from this shift away from public funding to tuition is privatization, although The New York Times reported that such claims are exaggerated.[66]

A second hypothesis claims that as a result of federal law that severely restricts the ability of students to discharge their federally guaranteed student loans in bankruptcy, lenders and colleges know that students are on the hook for any amount that they borrow, including late fees and interest (which can be capitalized and increase the principal loan amount), thus removing the incentive to only provide students loans that the students can be reasonably expected to repay.[67][68] As evidence for this hypothesis, it has been suggested that returning bankruptcy protections (and other standard consumer protections) to student loans would cause lenders to be more cautious, thereby causing a sharp decline in the availability of student loans, which, in turn, would decrease the influx of dollars to colleges and universities, who, in turn, would have to sharply decrease tuition to match the lower availability of funds.[69]

Economic and social commentator Gary North has remarked at LewRockwell.com, "To speak of college as a bubble is silly. A bubble does not pop until months or years after the funding ceases. There is no indication that the funding for college education will cease."[33]

Azar Nafisi, Johns Hopkins University professor and bestselling author of Reading Lolita in Tehran, has stated on the PBS NewsHour that a purely economic analysis of a higher education bubble is incomplete:

Universities become sort of like canaries in the mine for a culture. They become the sort of standard of where culture is going. The dynamism, the originality of these entrepreneurial experiences, the fact that society allows people to be original, to take risks, all of it comes from a passionate love of knowledge. And universities represent all the different areas and fields within a society. And the students and faculty come from all these fields. This is a community that represents the best that a society has to offer. And there was a mention of our universities being the best in the world.[70]

See also

References

  1. ^ Archibald, Robert B.; Feldman, David (David H.) (2006). "State Higher Education Spending and the Tax Revolt" (PDF). The Journal of Higher Education. 77 (4): 618–644. doi:10.1353/jhe.2006.0029. ISSN 1538-4640. S2CID 154906564.
  2. ^ Barshay, Jill (4 August 2014). "Reflections on the underemployment of college graduates". Hechniger Report. Teachers College at Columbia University. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  3. ^ Coates, Ken; Morrison, Bill (2016), Dream Factories: Why Universities Won't Solve the Youth Jobs Crisis, Toronto: Dundurn Press, p. 232, ISBN 978-1459733770
  4. ^ "U.S. Republican budget cuts social spending, boosts military". Reuters. 2015-03-17. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  5. ^ "Should the U.S. cut spending on education (yes) or the military (no)?". www.debate.org. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  6. ^ "Gov. Sam Brownback cuts higher education as Kansas tax receipts fall $53 million short". kansascity. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  7. ^ "Changing Priorities: State Criminal Justice Reforms and Investments in Education | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities". www.cbpp.org. Retrieved 2016-05-09.
  8. ^ Turchin, Peter (December 27, 2016). "Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says". UConn Today. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  9. ^ Smith, Noah (January 4, 2021). "America Is Pumping Out Too Many Ph.D.s". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  10. ^ Packer, George (June 8, 2021). "How America Fractured Into Four Parts". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on 2021-06-08. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  11. ^ Hobsbawn, Eric (1996). "Chapter Ten: Social Revolution 1945-1990". The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century 1914-1991. Abacus. ISBN 9780349106717.
  12. ^ Gaddis, John Lewis (2005). "IV: The Emergence of Autonomy". The Cold War: A New History. Penguin Books. ISBN 978-0143038276.
  13. ^ Suri, Jeremi (February 2009). "The Rise and Fall of an International Counterculture, 1960-1975". American Historical Review. 114 (1): 45–68. doi:10.1086/ahr.114.1.45. JSTOR 30223643.
  14. ^ a b c d Michael Simkovic, Risk-Based Student Loans (2012)
  15. ^ a b c Thomas Lemieux, Postsecondary Education And Increasing Wage Inequality, 96 AM. ECON. REVIEW 195 (2006)
  16. ^ a b c Sandy Baum and Michael McPherson, Job-Skill Trends and the College-Wage Premium, Chronicle of Higher Education, Sept. 21, 2010
  17. ^ Singletary, Michelle (11 January 2020). "Is college still worth it? Read this study". The Washington Post. Retrieved 12 January 2020.
  18. ^ "Expert predicts 25% of colleges will "fail" in the next 20 years". CBS News. August 31, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  19. ^ Belkin, Douglas (September 6, 2021). "A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: 'I Just Feel Lost'". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  20. ^ a b Cohn, Scott (December 3, 2019). "The other college debt crisis: Schools are going broke". Education. CNBC. Retrieved January 29, 2020.
  21. ^ Solman, Paul (March 28, 2019). "Anxious about debt, Generation Z makes college choice a financial one". PBS Newshour. Retrieved May 12, 2019.
  22. ^ Krupnick, Matt (August 29, 2017). "After decades of pushing bachelor's degrees, U.S. needs more tradespeople". PBS Newshour. Retrieved May 17, 2019.
  23. ^ a b Emmons, William R.; Kent, Ana H.; Ricketts, Lowell R. (2019). "Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns" (PDF). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 101 (4). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: 297–329. doi:10.20955/r.101.297-329. S2CID 211431474.
  24. ^ Nadworny, Elissa (May 25, 2018). "Why Is Undergraduate College Enrollment Declining?". Education. NPR. Retrieved November 28, 2019.
  25. ^ a b Moody, Josh (May 26, 2022). "A 5th Straight Semester of Enrollment Declines". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  26. ^ a b Flaherty, Colleen (July 5, 2022). "Calling It Quits". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on July 5, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  27. ^ a b Hamilton-Honey, Emily (August 10, 2022). "The Humanities' Scholarly Infrastructure Isn't in Disarray -- It's Disappearing". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  28. ^ William R. Emmons; Ana H. Kent; Lowell R. Ricketts (January 7, 2019). "Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns" (PDF).
  29. ^ a b Pope, Justin (12 September 2011). "Student loan default rates jump". Phys.org. Science X network.
  30. ^ a b Kirkham, Chris (September 12, 2011). "Led By For-Profit Colleges, Student Loan Defaults At Highest Level In A Decade". Huffington Post.
  31. ^ a b U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Education Pays
  32. ^ McKinsey Global Institute, An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America's Future, June 2011
  33. ^ a b Gary North (May 2, 2011). "College: Why It Is Not a Bubble". LewRockwell.com. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
  34. ^ Bennett, William J. (Feb 18, 1987). "Our Greedy Colleges". The New York Times.
  35. ^ "How U.S. News Calculates the College Rankings". U.S. News & World Report. 2010. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  36. ^ "Estimating the Payoff to Attending a More Selective College: An Application of Selection on Observables and Unobservables" (PDF). Dale, S. B. and Krueger, A. B., NBER. 1999. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-16. Retrieved 2011-05-03. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  37. ^ Ley, Katharina; Keppo, Jussi (2011). "The Credits that Count: How Credit Growth and Financial Aid Affect College Tuition and Fees". Ley, K. and Keppo, J., SSRN. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1766549. S2CID 154146898. SSRN 1766549. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  38. ^ Eichler, Alexander (August 30, 2011). "Hiring Is Up For The Class Of 2011, But Previous Classes Still Struggle". Huffington Post.
  39. ^ Johnson, Lacey (17 November 2011). "Job Outlook for College Graduates Is Slowly Improving". The Chronicle of Higher Education.
  40. ^ Reynolds, Glenn H. (2012). The higher education bubble. New York: Encounter Books. p. 1. ISBN 978-1594036651.
  41. ^ Turchin, Peter (August 16, 2012). "Cliodynamics: can science decode the laws of history?". The Conversation. Retrieved September 22, 2021.
  42. ^ a b "A look at trends in college and university consolidation since 2016". Education Dive. November 1, 2019. Retrieved November 28, 2019.
  43. ^ Dutt-Ballerstadt, Reshmi (March 1, 2019). "Academic Prioritization or Killing the Liberal Arts?". Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  44. ^ a b "Could a fifth of America's colleges really face the chop?". United States. The Economist. May 28, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  45. ^ Dickler, Jessica (March 14, 2021). "Fewer kids are going to college because they say it costs too much". CNBC. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
  46. ^ Aspegren, Elinor (January 28, 2021). "These colleges survived World Wars, the Spanish flu and more. They couldn't withstand COVID-19 pandemic". USA Today. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  47. ^ Korn, Melissa (December 29, 2020). "Pandemic Leads Dozens of Universities to Pause Ph.D. Admissions". Education. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  48. ^ Smith, Noah (January 4, 2021). "America Is Pumping Out Too Many Ph.D.s". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  49. ^ Paterson, James (July 3, 2018). "Yet another report says fewer Americans value 4-year degree". Education Dive. Retrieved August 2, 2019.
  50. ^ Knott, Katherine (August 12, 2022). "Gen Z's Distrust in Higher Ed a 'Red Flag'". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on August 12, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  51. ^ "Can Gen Z Save Manufacturing from the 'Silver Tsunami'?". Industry Week. July 24, 2019. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  52. ^ Van Dam, Andrew (September 2, 2022). "The most-regretted (and lowest-paying) college majors". Department of Data. The Washington Post. Archived from the original on September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 21, 2022.
  53. ^ a b Birrell, Hamish (November 17, 2020). "A golden age for universities will come to an end". The Economist. Retrieved December 31, 2020.
  54. ^ Watanabe, Shin (November 4, 2020). "US visas for Chinese students tumble 99% as tensions rise". Nikkei Asia. Archived from the original on February 6, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2021.
  55. ^ "Covid-19 will be painful for universities, but also bring change". The Economist. August 8, 2020. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  56. ^ a b "Trends in College Spending 1998–2008 Archived 2013-08-08 at the Wayback Machine" (PDF) Delta Cost Project
  57. ^ Claudia Goldin; Lawrence F. Katz (2008). The Race Between Education and Technology. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
  58. ^ Caplan, Bryan (2018). The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0691174655.
  59. ^ Simkovic, Michael (2015). "The Knowledge Tax". University of Chicago Law Review. SSRN 2551567.
  60. ^ Benhabib, Jess; Spiegel, Mark M. (October 1994). "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data". Journal of Monetary Economics. 34 (2): 143–173. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(94)90047-7.
  61. ^ Pritchett, Lant. "Where has all the education gone?" (PDF). Harvard.edu. World Bank & Kennedy School of Government (2000).
  62. ^ Hanushek, Eric A.; Woessmann, Ludger (December 2010). "How Much Do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries?" (PDF). IZA Discussion Paper No. 5401.
  63. ^ Holmes, Craig (May 2013). "Has the Expansion of Higher Education Led to Greater Economic Growth?". National Institute Economic Review. 224 (1): R29–R47. doi:10.1177/002795011322400103. S2CID 154479251.
  64. ^ Hillman, Nick (2006). "Student Debt Burden, Volume 3, Number 8, August 2006" (PDF). American Association of State Colleges and Universities. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2010-12-11. Retrieved 2011-07-13.
  65. ^ Vedder, Richard; Denhart, Christopher (8 January 2014), How the College Bubble Will Pop, American Enterprise Institute, retrieved 12 July 2014
  66. ^ a b c "Public Universities Relying More on Tuition Than State Money", The New York Times 2011/01/24
  67. ^ Quinn, Jane (24 September 2010). "Student Loans: Time to Reform the Law That Treats Debtors Like Crooks". CBS News. Retrieved 6 January 2018.
  68. ^ Weissman, Jordan (16 April 2015). "How the Bush Administration Pointlessly Screwed Over Student Borrowers". Slate. Retrieved 6 January 2018.
  69. ^ "Why College Prices Keep Rising". Forbes.com. 2012.
  70. ^ "Is a College Diploma Worth the Soaring Student Debt?". PBS NewsHour. May 27, 2011. Retrieved November 16, 2011.

Further reading

External link

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Higher_education_bubble_in_the_United_States&oldid=1111555367"