Australian property bubble
The Australian property bubble is speculation that real estate prices in Australia have become overvalued. This may be a real estate bubble. The bubble theory has been proposed since at least 2001, yet Australian house prices have continued to rise. Some commentators, including one Treasury official, claim the Australian property market is a significant bubble. Others suggest it is not a bubble and that house prices have the potential to keep rising in line with income growth.
A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is normally characterized by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and rents, and then decline. Australian house prices relative to incomes and rents have increased consistently over the last decade.
- 1 Australian property market
- 2 Rising house prices
- 3 Surveys and popular commentary
- 4 Effect of inflated housing prices on the greater economy
- 5 Australian specific market factors
- 6 Timeline
- 7 See also
- 8 References
- 9 External links
Australian property market
The Australian property market has shown steady increases of around 3% per annum since the 1970s. Since the 1990s however, prices have risen by around 6% per annum.
In the late 2000s, house prices in Australia, relative to incomes, were at levels similar to many comparable countries, prompting speculation that Australia was experiencing a real estate bubble like many comparable countries. Since then, several comparable countries have experienced property crashes.
Rising house prices
All capital cities, with the exception of Sydney, have exhibited strongly increasing prices since about 1998-9. Sydney house prices increased from $573,000 to $671,500 (+17%) between 2003 and 2010 while other capitals have roughly doubled in price since 2003.
The 'Housing Affordability in Australia - Good house is hard to find' report stated that "the average house price in the capital cities is now equivalent to over seven years of average earnings; up from three in the 1950s to the early 1980s."  Some factors that may have contributed to the increase in prices are;
- Loosening of credit standards (Loan to Value Ratios LVR of 95% still available)
- Low interest rates from 2008 onwards (increasing borrowing capacity)
- Limited government release of new land (reducing supply)
- The average floor area of new houses increasing by up to 53.8% in the 18 years from 1984-85 to 2002-03 
- A tax system that favours investors and existing home owners.
- Limited stock - there appear to be lower levels of existing property sales in 2009/2010 as compared to previous years, reducing supply.
- Government restrictions on the use of land preventing higher density land use.
- High population growth (now about double the world average - see Population growth rates chart).
- 2008 foreign investment rule changes for temporary visa holders
- Unregulated property investment seminars promoting the purchase of investment properties
- Speculative demand for housing due to a public perception of real estate as a sure bet.
- Introduction by local councils of upfront infrastructure levies in the early 2000s.
These factors are stated to have increased property prices in Australia.[by whom?] Any one of these factors in isolation would be unable to provide the framework for the asset inflation now evident.
Influence of tax system
The RBA has noted that there are "a number of areas in which the taxation treatment in Australia is more favourable to investors than is the case in other countries."
Land price inflation, CPI and interest rates
Total household debt as a percentage of disposable income was about 45% in 1990 and 155% in 2009. In the same period, housing debt to disposable income increased from about 35% to 140%.
The increase in debt was related to the easing of lending standards, the absence of capital gains tax on principal residences, Capital Gains Tax discount (50%) on investment properties after 1999, negative gearing availability for second-hand homes, the First Home Buyers Grant and increase in household incomes.
Some of these factors added especially to the borrowing power of investors. Debt growth averaged 15% per annum compounding (1998–2009). During the same period national economic growth was less than 3% with debt stripped out.
Foreign investment in residential property
Information and statistics regarding foreign ownership of Australian property is currently unavailable due to censorship, blanking and redacting by the Federal Government
In December 2008, the federal government introduced legislation relaxing rules for foreign buyers of Australian property. According to FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board) data released in August 2009, foreign investment in Australian real estate had increased by more than 30% year to date. One agent said that "overseas investors buy them to land bank, not to rent them out. The houses just sit vacant because they are after capital growth."
In April 2010, the government announced amendments to policies to "ensure that foreign non-residents can only invest in Australian real estate if that investment adds to the housing stock, and that investments by temporary residents in established properties are only for their use whilst they live in Australia."
Under the rules, temporary residents and foreign students will be:
- Screened by the Foreign Investment Review Board to determine if they will be allowed to buy a property.
- Forced to sell property when they leave Australia.
- Punished if they do not sell by a government-ordered sale plus confiscation of any capital gain.
- Required to build on vacant land within two years of purchase to stop "land banking".
Failure to do this would also lead to a government-ordered sale.
Surveys and popular commentary
Several surveys and popular commentaries have suggested that the Australian housing market is overvalued.
The Economist (21 Oct 2010) found that Australian house prices were overvalued by 63.2%, stating that "Our analysis of 'fair value' in housing, which is based on comparing the current ratio of house prices to rents with its long-run average, suggests that China has less to worry about than the likes of Australia, which is again the most overvalued of the markets we track. That makes it all the more surprising that Australia’s central bank opted not to increase its benchmark interest rate this month." 
An earlier study by The Economist had found that Australian property was "the most overvalued of any of the 20 countries we track."
The Head of Financial Stability at the RBA has said that "If rental yields are very low, investors are buying properties without really thinking about the rental yield" and that "Buying an asset just because you are expecting the price to rise in the future, well that is actually the academic definition of a bubble."
Some surveys that take factors like disposable/discretionary income, credit availability, tax incentives and comparative dwelling size/quality into account place Australian cities as being relatively more affordable than some of the other cities in the world. For example the "Numbeo: House Price to Household Disposable Income Ratio"  shows London at 15× disposable income, Singapore 14×, Tokyo 12×, New York 8× and Sydney 7×.
The GlobalProperty Most Expensive Cities 2009 survey (apartment price per sqm) shows Sydney at #28.
The "Mercer Most Expensive Cities" survey measures cost of living including housing and shows Sydney at #21.
The "CityMayors Expensive Cities" survey shows Sydney at #24.
In 2002, the government initiated a Productivity Commission Inquiry Report titled 'First Home Ownership'. The report observed inter alia that "general taxation arrangements [capital gains tax, negative gearing, capital works deductions and depreciation provisions] have lent impetus to the recent surge in investment in rental housing and consequent house price increases."
The government's response to the report stated that "There is no conclusive evidence that the tax system has had a significant impact on house prices."
In 2008, another study was commissioned – the 2008 Senate Select Committee on Housing Affordability in Australia. The report noted that "On some measures, housing affordability is at a record low." 
'Australia's Future Tax System' (AFTS) review, more commonly known as the 'Henry Tax Review', made a number of recommendations that would have impacted on the housing market, including:
- Introduction of land tax "on all land . . removing disincentives for institutional investment in rental property";
- that "transfer taxes on property should be reduced, and ultimately removed";
- a move to "more neutral personal income tax treatment of private residential rental investment . . through a 40 per cent discount on all net residential rental income and losses, and capital gains."
In regard to recommendations of changes to tax policy that might impact the housing market, the Government advised "that it will not implement the following policies at any stage" (excerpt of list):
- Include the family home in means tests (see Rec 88c)
- Introduce land tax on the family home – this is a state tax and thus an issue for the states (see Rec 52 & 53)
- Reduce the CGT discount, apply a discount to negative gearing deductions, or change grandfathering arrangements for CGT (see Rec 14 & 17c)
Warnings of overvaluation
In 2003, the IMF's 'World Economic Outlook' warned that "housing bubbles in Australia, England, Ireland and the United States" would "burst".
In April 2008, the IMF again stated that Australia's property market was overvalued and close to 25% higher than could be explained by changes in underlying fundamentals. Other analysts argued that the rise in property prices was explained by peculiarities of the tax system.
In April 2010, The Economist house price indicators estimated Australian house prices were the most overpriced in the world, at 56.1% overpriced (against long-run average of price to rents ratio).
According to Edward Chancellor, a US-based investment strategist and financial author, Australia is "in the midst of an unsustainable housing bubble that could burst at any time" and "house prices are more than 50 per cent above their fair value — a once in 40-year event."
A counter view was expressed by a senior economist with the Commonwealth Bank, who stated that Australia did not have the high unemployment levels of the US or UK and that there was "an extremely low" rate of late debt payments. He also noted that Australia's high population growth was likely to lead to "an undersupply of dwellings in the next few years, not an oversupply."
Equally, Investment Bank Goldman Sachs (GS) reported in August 2010 that "Australian housing is not in a speculative bubble but could be up to 35 per cent overvalued," explaining that there is a "very big difference between a speculative bubble and a period of overvaluation."
In November 2010, The Weekend Australian reported that "Treasury officials preparing the so-called Red Book of briefs for the incoming government were as divided as private sector economists about the strength of the property market."
In December 2010, an MLC investments strategist observed that "residential property looks absolutely obscenely overvalued and seems to offer very, very poor investment prospects."
In March 2011, Morgan Stanley global strategist Gerard Minack said that "we've had 20 years where the Australian consumers have been willing to borrow more to buy an asset that they believe always goes up in value. The classic sign of an asset bubble." and that "home prices are 30 to 40 per cent above fair value."
In October 2009, it appeared that the pricing of homes was being inflated by actions taken in October 2008 aimed at addressing the fallout from the global financial crisis. Housing was identified as an asset class worth shoring up against the type of de-leveraging seen in the stock market.
The government increased assistance given to first home buyers as part of its 'Economic Stimulus Strategy',. A substantial reduction of RBA interest rates also played a part in maintaining prices.
Effect of inflated housing prices on the greater economy
Diverting capital away from the rest of the economy
Increased residential housing costs can cause excessive lending to the residential housing sector, at the expense of businesses. This can lead to "a banking system which allocated capital away from the most productive areas of the economy — business — is ultimately bad for growth, bad for competition, bad for jobs, bad for business and in the end, bad for Australia."
Research conducted in overseas markets confirms that "in areas with high housing appreciation, banks increase the amount of mortgage lending and decrease the amount of commercial lending as a fraction of their total assets. This allocation results in firms receiving reduced loan amounts, paying higher interest rates, and reducing investment."
Mortgage and rent stress
Increased housing prices and therefore increased borrowings can lead to difficulty in meeting housing payments. According to Ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P), "Arrears for sub-prime loans backing RMBS [residential mortgage-backed securities] jumped 126 basis points to 11.45 per cent"
Australian specific market factors
The Australian market had several features either singly or together are not typical in other housing markets, being;
- No sizable public housing as found in the UK
- Income Tax relief through negative gearing
- Social security (Centrelink) that offers payment including rent assistance that is calculated on the amount of rent paid
- A Federal, state and local council divide that complicates land release and planning and direct and indirect taxation on land
- Only recourse loans
- one of the most highly urbanized populations
- Large areas of rural and remote Australia can not secure loans from banks against land in those areas.
1985: Australian government quarantines interest expenses, so that interest can only be claimed against rental income, not other income.
1998 to 2008: real net national disposable incomes increase by 2.8% a year on average from about $32,000 to about $42,000 per year. There is a rise in the number of two-income households, relaxation of lending standards, active promotion of real estate as an investment, population growth creating demand that was not matched by supply, planning and land release issues and a tax system that was skewed in favour of property investors.
1999: Capital Gains Tax reduced from 100 to 50 percent (for property held at least one year), while 100 percent of costs remained deductible.
2000: July - The Federal government introduces the First Home Owners Grant of $7,000 for established homes, and $14,000 for newly built homes.
2002: Urban Growth Boundary introduced for Melbourne, severely limiting land supply.
2004: The Productivity Commission Inquiry on 'First Home Ownership' published its findings (No. 28, 31 March 2004). It identified several factors that had contributed to the rapid increase in real estate prices, including overall fairness of the tax system, lending regulations, lower interest rates and planning issues.
2008: A Senate Select Committee on Housing Affordability was established. Its final report 'A good house is hard to find' included dozens of recommendations.
2008: October - The First Home Owners Grant Boost is introduced as an addition to the First Home Owners Grant. This consisted of an extra $14000 available to first home owners buying or building a new home, as well as an extra $7000 made available for established homes. First Home Saver Accounts are also introduced, where the Federal Government will contribute up to $850 per annum towards savings for a deposit to purchase housing.
2008: December - FIRB rules allow temporary visa holders including students, to more easily buy up 'second-hand dwellings'. Changes did not require notification of sales be made to the FIRB and the $300,000 cap on price was removed.
2009: October - First Home Owners Grant Boost is withdrawn. The UNSW City Futures Research Centre director said "the boost has resulted in inflated prices" and had created "a bit of a mini-bubble". A senior economist of Housing Industry Association (HIA) said the boost has not pushed prices up significantly.
2009: November - "capital city house prices . . climbed average 10 per cent" in 2009. Melbourne led the "house price boom, with values up 14.9 per cent in the 10 months . . to an average of $481,247." 
2009: December - Reporting of RE data was questioned by one source: "AVERAGE house prices have been overstated by up to 18 per cent by the real estate industry . . . In September the average house price quoted by the Real Estate Institute of Victoria was $67,000 higher than the official figure, based on preliminary valuer-general data . . "
2010: January - The removal of First Home Owners Grant Boost. Mortgage applications reduce by 21.2%. First-home buyers account for 13.1 per cent of new loan applications in December, whereas nine months previously they were at 28.1 per cent.
The Economist warns that Australian prices had effectively raced ahead of reasonable rental yields stating; "In the American housing market . . homes are priced at around fair value on the basis of rental yields, but they are overvalued by almost . . 50% in Australia, Hong Kong and Spain."  Spain subsequently had a property crash.
2010 March: ABS declares that house prices "soared 20 per cent in the 12 months to March" - a rate that was described as the "fastest ever recorded" in Australian history. The Head of Australian economics at National Australia Bank admits "This is a shocker".
2010: April - Rules allowing foreign investment in real estate that were introduced in 2008 are withdrawn. Temporary residents are required to sell their Australian property when they leave Australia.
The government responds to the AFTS review findings with a report 'Stronger, Fairer, Simpler: A Tax Plan for our Future'.
RBA Cash rate is raised to 4.5%. Rates for major banks now vary between about 7.2% and 7.5%.
2010: November - The RBA raises interest rates 0.25% to 4.75% citing the "economy is now subject to a large expansionary shock from the high terms of trade"
2011: February - New housing loans approved by Australian banks fall 5.6 per cent to a 10-year low in February.
2011: March - Prosper Australia launches a campaign for a "buyer's strike" in an effort to drive down prices.
2011: May - The number of properties for sale in Melbourne double.
2011: September Quarter - House prices fall 1.2% over the quarter.
2011: December Quarter - House prices fall 1.7% over the quarter in non-seasonally adjusted terms and 0.5% in seasonally adjusted terms -according to RP Data. House prices fall 1% over the quarter and 4.8% over the year according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
2012: March Quarter - House prices fall 1.1% over the quarter.
2012: October - The RBA cuts interest rates to 3.25%.
2012: December - The RBA cuts interest rates to 3.00%.
2013: Data released by RP Data, APM, Residex and ABS in January and February 2013 showed that Australian house prices continued to rise throughout 2013. This means the great Australian housing bubble has been expanding for almost two decades, since the mid-nineties, making it the largest and longest lasting bubble (of any type) that has ever existed in known history.
2013: April - Glenn Stevens is re-appointed as RBA Governor for 3 more years.
2013: May - The RBA cuts interest rates to 2.75%.
2013: August - The RBA cuts interest rates to 2.50%.
2013 - November - Statistics released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority revealed that the total amount of residential term loans to households held by all ADIs (authorised deposit taking institutions) was $1.15 trillion. This was an increase of 1.7% on 30 June 2013 and an increase of 7.5 on September 2012. Furthermore, investment loans accounted for 33.1 per cent of the loans. Major banks held $933 billion of these loans.
2014 - January 1st - RP Data reveals that national residential prices increased by 9.8% in 2013, with Sydney increasing by 15.2%. 
2014 - January 13th - Housing Finance statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the value of outstanding home loans financed by the ADIs was $1.25 trillion. $842 billion of that amount was for owner occupied housing and $412 billion was for investment housing loans. For the sake of comparison, the total amount of outstanding residential home loans (owner occupier and investment) was $517 billion in at the end of May 2005. Subtracting this number from the lastest one shows that since May 2005 outstanding home loans financed by authorised deposit taking institutions have increased by 140%. The compounded annual increase shows that this growth equated to 9.5% each year on average from 2005 until end of 2013. Based on this analysis it is evident that credit growth for housing is growing at decent rates every year which may be contributing to inflated house values as growth in credit can lead to asset price speculation. 
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