Roy Spencer (scientist)

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Roy W. Spencer is a principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

He is principally known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society's Special Award. Based on the satellite evidence, Spencer suggests that climate sensitivity is lower than is currently believed, and that natural, chaotic variations in low cloud cover may account for most global warming.[1][2] The current scientific opinion on climate change is that human activity is primarily responsible for global warming.

Spencer is a proponent of intelligent design, and rejects evolution as the mechanism for the origin of species.[3]

Contents

[edit] Education and work

Spencer earned a B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Michigan in 1978 and his M.S. and Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1980 and 1982.[4] Spencer designed an algorithm to detect tropical cyclones and estimate their maximum sustained wind speed using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.[5] The AMSU is a microwave radiometer that can be used to detect temperature at different levels of the atmosphere. Based on gradients in temperature measurements in a given area, it is possible to estimate maximal sustained radial wind speed. [6]

He publicly promotes his ideas on intelligent design[7] and the weather, including four appearances on Coast to Coast AM.[8]

[edit] Climate change research

In August, 2007, Spencer and others published an article in Geophysical Research Letters regarding cloud feedback in the tropics. [9] Current understanding of the climate system predicts that an increase in high-level, heat trapping clouds will accelerate global warming. Spencer's observations in the tropics found a negative feedback (though this was on a different time scale than climate models), and a lower climate sensitivity than the current consensus. Spencer and colleagues state that the negative feedback possibly supports Richard Lindzen's Infrared Iris hypothesis of compensating meteorological processes that tend to stabilize climate change.[10]

In a subsequent press release, Spencer said, "To give an idea of how strong this enhanced cooling mechanism is, if it was operating on global warming, it would reduce estimates of future warming by over 75 percent... The big question that no one can answer right now is whether this enhanced cooling mechanism applies to global warming." [11]

In 2008, Spencer and a colleague published a paper in the Journal of Climate which stated that conventional diagnoses of positive cloud feedback are artificially biased positive, because they ignore natural cloud variability. [12] Climate model analyses treat decreasing cloud cover as an evidence of positive feedback of atmosphere to initial CO2 induced warming, while it easily could be the other way around: the real cause of warming could be small naturally caused variations in cloud cover with rising temperatures as a result. Spencer postulates strong negative cloud feedback, contrary to what the current IPCC climate models use. He points out that the IPCC concedes that low clouds are the most uncertain element in climate models, and that a 1% change in low cloud cover could have radiative forcing equal to doubling of CO2. In a new analysis, Spencer asserts that small cloud variations connected with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain 75% of global warming in the twentieth century. [13]

[edit] Views on global warming

Roy Spencer describes himself as a global warming optimist working to quantify Nature's thermostat.[14] In several articles Spencer has espoused opinions that are skeptical of the scientific opinion on climate change.

In 2006 Spencer criticized Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth saying, "For instance, Mr. Gore claims that the Earth is now warmer than it has been in thousands of years. Yet the latest National Academies of Science (NAS) report on the subject has now admitted that all we really know is that we are warmer now than we were during the last 400 years, which is mostly made up of the 'Little Ice Age.'" [15] The NAS report summary (p. 3) [16] states:

"It can be said with a high level of confidence that global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries. This statement is justified by the consistency of the evidence from a wide variety of geographically diverse proxies.
"Less confidence can be placed in large-scale surface temperature reconstructions for the period from A.D. 900 to 1600. Presently available proxy evidence indicates that temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period of comparable length since A.D. 900. The uncertainties associated with reconstructing hemispheric mean or global mean temperatures from these data increase substantially backward in time through this period and are not yet fully quantified."

In a New York Post opinion column on February 26, 2007, Spencer wrote:

Contrary to popular accounts, very few scientists in the world - possibly none - have a sufficiently thorough, "big picture" understanding of the climate system to be relied upon for a prediction of the magnitude of global warming. To the public, we all might seem like experts, but the vast majority of us work on only a small portion of the problem. [17]

In an interview with conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh on February 28, 2007, Spencer stated that he doesn't believe "catastrophic manmade global warming" is occurring. He also criticized climate models, saying "The people that have built the climate models that predict global warming believe they have sufficient physics in those models to predict the future. I believe they don't. I believe the climate system, the weather as it is today in the real world shows a stability that they do not yet have in those climate models."[18] Roy Spencer is also included in a film that argues against the theory of man-made global warming called The Great Global Warming Swindle.

He testified before the Waxman committee's examination of political interference with climate science on March 19, 2007.[19][20]

In 2008, Spencer published a book on climate change: Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor.[21]

Spencer is listed as a member of the Heartland Institute and a contributor to the George C. Marshall Institute.

[edit] Views on creationism and intelligent design

On the subject of Intelligent design, Spencer wrote in 2005, "Twenty years ago, as a PhD scientist, I intensely studied the evolution versus intelligent design controversy for about two years. And finally, despite my previous acceptance of evolutionary theory as 'fact,' I came to the realization that intelligent design, as a theory of origins, is no more religious, and no less scientific, than evolutionism. . . . In the scientific community, I am not alone. There are many fine books out there on the subject. Curiously, most of the books are written by scientists who lost faith in evolution as adults, after they learned how to apply the analytical tools they were taught in college."[3] He further states "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world... Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer."[22]

[edit] See also

[edit] Awards

[edit] Publications & Selected Papers

  • Spencer, R.W. (2008). Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor. Encounter Books. ISBN 1594032106. 

[edit] Articles by Spencer available online

[edit] References

  1. ^ Global Warming: Natural or Manmade? by Roy Spencer
  2. ^ The 2007-2008 Global Cooling Event: Evidence for Clouds as the Cause by Roy Spencer
  3. ^ a b Faith-Based Evolution, Roy Spencer, TCS Daily, 08 August 2005
  4. ^ "Aqua Project Science". NASA. 2008. http://aqua.nasa.gov/about/team_spencer.php. Retrieved 2008-10-10. 
  5. ^ Spencer, R.W., and W.D. Braswell, "Atlantic tropical cyclone monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of maximum sustained wind speeds." Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1518-1532, 2001
  6. ^ Detecting Tropical Cyclones Using AMSU
  7. ^ "Roy Spencer on Intelligent Design". 2005-08-08. http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/roy-spencer-on-intelligent-design/. Retrieved 2009-09-17. 
  8. ^ "Dr. Roy Spencer". Coast to Coast AM. 2008. http://www.coasttocoastam.com/guests/1162.html. Retrieved 2008-10-10. 
  9. ^ R. Spencer et al. Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 34, L15707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029698, 2007
  10. ^ Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou (2001). "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?". http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/adinfriris.pdf. 
  11. ^ Cirrus disappearance: Warming might thin heat-trapping clouds, UA Huntsville press release, 8/9/2007
  12. ^ "Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration", by Roy W. Spencer & William D. Braswell, Journal of Climate, 2008
  13. ^ Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) by Roy Spencer
  14. ^ Roy W. Spencer, PhD. ""Global Warming and Nature's Thermostat"". WeatherQuestions.com. http://www.weatherquestions.com/Roy-Spencer-on-global-warming.htm. Retrieved 2008-05-12. 
  15. ^ Star Search by Roy Spencer, TCS Daily, 30 Jun 2006
  16. ^ Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
  17. ^ Spencer, Roy W. (2007-02-26). "NOT THAT SIMPLE / GLOBAL WARMING: WHAT WE DON'T KNOW". New York Post. http://www.nypost.com/seven/02262007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/not_that_simple_opedcolumnists_roy_w__spencer.htm?page=0. Retrieved 2007-04-07. 
  18. ^ Global Warming Update: Facts, Science Smash the Global Warming Myth
  19. ^ a b c d e Spencer, Roy W. (2007-03-19). "STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES" (PDF). House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. http://oversight.house.gov/Documents/20070320152338-19776.pdf. Retrieved 2007-03-07. 
  20. ^ "Committee Examines Political Interference with Climate Science". House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. 2007-03-19. http://oversight.house.gov/story.asp?ID=1214. 
  21. ^ Climate Confusion
  22. ^ The Evolution Crisis: Testing Truth with an Open Mind, by Roy Spencer
  23. ^ a b c "Aqua Team Member Profile - Roy Spencer". 12/01/2008. http://aqua.nasa.gov/about/team_spencer.php. Retrieved 04/07/2009. 
  24. ^ Earth Systems Science, NASA

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