User:Ixfd64/predictions: Difference between revisions
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=== December 14, 2012 === |
=== December 14, 2012 === |
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==== Order-27 optimal [[ |
==== Order-27 optimal [[Golcmb ruler]] found ==== |
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[[distributed.net]] finds an order-27 optimal Golomb ruler through its OGR-27 [[distributed computing]] project. The project was originally predicted to be finished in 2017, but with [[Moore's law]] on its side, it takes less than half the time. |
[[distributed.net]] finds an order-27 optimal Golomb ruler through its OGR-27 [[distributed computing]] project. The project was originally predicted to be finished in 2017, but with [[Moore's law]] on its side, it takes less than half the time. |
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After more than two decades of construction, the VLHC is completed. It can accelerate protons to 200 TeV. The [[Higgs boson]] is discovered. |
After more than two decades of construction, the VLHC is completed. It can accelerate protons to 200 TeV. The [[Higgs boson]] is discovered. |
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=== c. 2039 === |
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==== [[Universal translator]]s become widespread ==== |
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Technological devices are now able to translate almost anything between the 6,000 languages in existence.<ref>http://futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2030-2039.htm#universaltranslators</ref> Wikipedians are now working on universal translation bots. |
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=== c. 2041 === |
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==== Bot edits now make up 50% of all edits across the Wikimedia projects ==== |
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Due to the advent of universal translators, most of the human work is now being done on the English projects, with universal translation bots adding content to foreign-language projects. |
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=== c. 2056 === |
=== c. 2056 === |
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==== Bots can now detect 99% of vandalism ==== |
==== Bots can now detect 99% of vandalism ==== |
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Moore's law still holds true, and AI has almost reached the level of human intelligence.<ref>http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2050-2059.htm#2052</ref> Human [[Wikipedia:Recent changes patrol|RC patrolling]] is rarely needed now, and even [[Wikipedia:Huggle|Huggle]] has a "bot mode" that can run without human intervention. However, it will still be many decades before AI fully reaches human sentience. |
Moore's law still holds true, and AI has almost reached the level of human intelligence.<ref>http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2050-2059.htm#2052</ref> Human [[Wikipedia:Recent changes patrol|RC patrolling]] is rarely needed now, and even [[Wikipedia:Huggle|Huggle]] now has a "bot mode" that can run without human intervention. However, it will still be many decades before AI fully reaches human sentience. |
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=== c. 2062 === |
=== c. 2062 === |
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==== Mars population reaches 100 ==== |
==== Mars population reaches 100 ==== |
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Due to the ease and lower costs of space travel, many facilities are being built on Mars. [[Space tourism|Space tourists]] also arrive on Mars for the first time.<ref>http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2050-2059.htm#mars-population-2050s</ref> |
Due to the ease and lower costs of space travel, many facilities are being built on Mars. [[Space tourism|Space tourists]] also arrive on Mars for the first time.<ref>http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2050-2059.htm#mars-population-2050s</ref> Wikipedians propose [[Wikipedia:Notability|notability guidelines]] for space travelers. |
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=== May 17, 2065 === |
=== May 17, 2065 === |
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Revision as of 18:44, 23 November 2009
This is a speculative timeline of the future. These semi-serious predictions are based on current trends, and a large number of such predictions are related to Wikipedia, dealing with things like community issues, policies, milestones and software advances.
January 7, 2010
The German Wikipedia reaches one million articles
The German Wikipedia reaches its millionth article, which will be about a musical group. It is the first non-English Wikipedia to reach one million articles.
February 8, 2010
The 48th Mersenne prime is discovered
The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search discovers the 48th Mersenne prime, which will be around 15 million digits long.
April 17, 2011
The English Wikipedia reaches five million articles
The English Wikipedia will reach its five millionth article, which will be about a species of fish.
December 14, 2012
Order-27 optimal Golcmb ruler found
distributed.net finds an order-27 optimal Golomb ruler through its OGR-27 distributed computing project. The project was originally predicted to be finished in 2017, but with Moore's law on its side, it takes less than half the time.
January 29, 2014
The English Wikipedia reaches ten million articles
The English Wikipedia reaches its ten millionth article, which will be about a chemical compound produced by a certain type of insect. The Wikimedia Foundation hosts a commemorative social event, complete with a dinner and dance. The majority of proceeds from the ticket sales go towards improving the Wikimedia projects, with the remainder going to a charity chosen by the Wikimedia community.
April 12, 2015
New Horizons reaches Pluto
NASA's New Horizons probe reaches the dwarf planet Pluto. NASA releases about 1,500 images of Pluto, making Wikimedia Commons users really happy.
c. 2017
Bots can now detect 25% of vandalism
Due to advancing AI, more open source AI engines become available. Wikipedia bots can now detect about 25% of all vandalism. Due to the low amount of false positives, ClueBot (talk · contribs) is given admin rights.
February 13, 2018
Eta Carinae goes supernova
Eta Carinae has already gone supernova. The light from the supernova reaches Earth on this day, and the event will be called SN 2018cf. This causes widespread panic that lasts for a few days. The Wikipedia article for this event instantly becomes one of the most popular.
June 10, 2019
Astronauts return to the Moon
As part of the Constellation program, the United States sends astronauts on the first manned mission to the Moon since the Apollo program over 50 years ago. Due to the ease of accessing information nowadays, the Wikipedia article for this mission is much longer than that of any Apollo mission.
August 26, 2019
The English Wikipedia reaches 20 million articles
The English Wikipedia reach its 20 millionth article, which will be about a video game character.
c. 2025
Bot edits now make up 10% of all edits on the English Wikipedia
AI advances now allow computer programs to do many tasks that would previously have required a human. About 10% of all edits on the English Wikipedia are now made by bots. Many editors retire from Wikipedia, thinking that their work is no longer needed.
c. 2030
Bots can now detect 50% of vandalism
Due to the large amount AI research over the last two decades, robots can now perform a large number of human tasks. As for Wikipedia, bots can now detect around 50% of all vandalism.
February 14, 2035
First manned mission to Mars
After decades of planning, the first manned mission to Mars is underway. The mission is originally planned for 2031, but is delayed to lack of funding. Due to the enormous costs involved, the mission is a joint international effort headed by NASA and the ESA. The mission is officially called Aurora I, but due to the launch date, it is informally called the Valentine's Day Mission and Cupid's Flight.
Despite the hype about life on Mars, no extraterrestrial organisms have been discovered. NASA releases about 200,000 photographs from the mission, about 50,000 of which are uploaded to Wikimedia Commons. The astronauts return to Earth on November 22, 2037.
c. 2038
Very Large Hadron Collider (VLHC) completed
After more than two decades of construction, the VLHC is completed. It can accelerate protons to 200 TeV. The Higgs boson is discovered.
c. 2039
Universal translators become widespread
Technological devices are now able to translate almost anything between the 6,000 languages in existence.[1] Wikipedians are now working on universal translation bots.
c. 2041
Bot edits now make up 50% of all edits across the Wikimedia projects
Due to the advent of universal translators, most of the human work is now being done on the English projects, with universal translation bots adding content to foreign-language projects.
c. 2056
Bots can now detect 99% of vandalism
Moore's law still holds true, and AI has almost reached the level of human intelligence.[2] Human RC patrolling is rarely needed now, and even Huggle now has a "bot mode" that can run without human intervention. However, it will still be many decades before AI fully reaches human sentience.
c. 2062
Mars population reaches 100
Due to the ease and lower costs of space travel, many facilities are being built on Mars. Space tourists also arrive on Mars for the first time.[3] Wikipedians propose notability guidelines for space travelers.
May 17, 2065
Wikipedia establishes notability guidelines for space travelers
After three years of debate and a few incivility-related blocks, notability guidelines for space travelers have been established. Comments like "Delete - non-notable space tourist" begin to appear on deletion discussions.