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I've changed the "Focus" section, which put a lot of emphasis on GDP distortions and the like, which was of relatively limited relevance to the bodies actual focus.
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==Focus==
==Focus==


The Fiscal Council looks at major areas that could affect the stability and confidence levels of Irish macroeconomic forecasts, and/or, create the potential for economic shocks.
The Fiscal Council focuses on macro-fiscal issues. That is, issues that relate to the whole economy as well as to the public finances in Ireland. The Council's output typically covers the recent and future macroeconomic outlook, both from a short-term (demand-side) and medium- to long-term (supply-side) perspective. It puts more weight on the longer-term prospects of the domestic economy in terms of its assessments of how appropriate the Government's budgetary stance is. It also focuses on the cyclical position of the economy to assess whether recent developments might be of a sustainable nature or whether the economy might be expected to outperform or underperform in future. It also puts a lot of emphasis on analysing various imbalances and risks to the economy and public finances.


===Distortion of Irish GDP and GNP===
In terms of key areas, the Council has brought a lot of attention to issues such as:
{{see also|Corporate haven#Distorted GDP/GNP|Corporate haven#GDP-per-capita tax haven proxy}}
* the risks associated with the Government's reliance on corporation tax receipts to fund public services as well as the concentration, volatility, and unpredicatable nature of corporation tax receipts.
{{see also|Modified gross national income}}
* improving analysis of the more tax-rich Domestic economy (ignoring distortions present in GDP) and its cyclical performance

* measuring uncertainty around macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts
Ireland is a leading [[corporate tax haven]] (see [[Corporate haven#Corporate tax haven lists|Corporate tax haven lists]]).<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401|title=Ireland is the world’s biggest corporate ‘tax haven’, say academics|quote=Study claims State shelters more multinational profits than the entire Caribbean|publisher=Irish Times|date=13 June 2018}}</ref> Extreme distortions of national economic data is a well-known feature of [[corporate tax haven]]s.<ref name="qqtz">{{cite web|url=https://qz.com/1300880/tax-havens-mean-40-of-foreign-direct-investments-are-artificial/|title=How tax havens turn economic statistics into nonsense|publisher=Quartz|date=11 June 2018}}</ref><ref name="imfx">{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/inside-the-world-of-global-tax-havens-and-offshore-banking/damgaard.htm|title=Piercing the Veil, FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT, JUNE 2018, VOL. 55, NO. 2 |publisher=IMF Finance & Development|date=June 2018}}</ref> The top 15 GDP-per-capita countries are heavily represented by traditional and corporate tax havens (see [[Corporate haven#GDP-per-capita tax haven proxy|GDP-per-capita and tax havens]]). The artificial nature of the distortion makes the haven prone to more severe credit cycles as international capital markets misprice the cost of credit to the tax haven in benign times, only to reverse it sharply in times of global stress (see [[Corporate haven#Distorted GDP/GNP|tax haven cycles]]).
* ways to improve Ireland's budgetary framework (including through assessments of how the Rainy Day Fund could be redeveloped, how medium-term spending by Government could be better anchored, and how the Government's debt targets could be better devised).

{{quote|A stunning $12 trillion—almost 40 percent of all foreign direct investment positions globally—is completely artificial: it consists of financial investment passing through empty corporate shells with no real activity. These investments in empty corporate shells almost always pass through well-known tax havens. The eight major pass-through economies—the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Hong Kong SAR, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Ireland, and Singapore—host more than 85 percent of the world’s investment in special purpose entities, which are often set up for tax reasons. |author="Piercing the Veil", [[International Monetary Fund]], June 2018<ref name="imfx"/>}}

The Fiscal Council was one of the members of the economic steering group (the Economic Statistics Review Group, or "ESRG"), that [[Philip R. Lane]], the Governor of the [[Central Bank of Ireland]], convened to create a new economic statistic to replace Irish GDP.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/documents/reportoftheeconomicstatisticsreviewgroup/ESRG_Presentation_-_Press_Briefing.pdf|title=ESRG Presentation and CSO Response|publisher=Central Statistics Office|date=4 February 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0204/850115-leprechaun-economics/|title=Leprechaun-proofing economic data|publisher=RTE News|date=4 February 2017}}</ref> The metric, also called GNI*, is circa 30% below Irish GDP.<ref name="gni1">{{cite web|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cso-paints-a-very-different-picture-of-irish-economy-with-new-measure-1.3155462|title=CSO paints a very different picture of Irish economy with new measure|publisher=Irish Times|date=15 July 2017}}</ref><ref name="gni2">{{cite web|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/new-economic-leprechaun-on-loose-as-rate-of-growth-plunges-35932663.html|title=New economic Leprechaun on loose as rate of growth plunges|publisher=Irish Independent|date=15 July 2017}}</ref>

{{Quote|Ireland has, more or less, stopped using GDP to measure its own economy. And on current trends [because Irish GDP is distorting EU-28 aggregate data], the eurozone taken as a whole may need to consider something similar.|author=[[Brad Setser]], [[Council on Foreign Relations]], "Ireland exports its Leprechaun", 25 April 2018<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/ireland-exports-its-leprechaun|title=Ireland Exports its Leprechaun|publisher=Council on Foreign Relations|date=11 May 2018}}</ref>}}

===Irish Public Debt===
{{see also|Leprechaun economics|Modified gross national income}}

Ireland's economic data is distorted by the tax planning schemes of US multinationals based in Ireland (i.e. "[[double Irish]]").<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-points-finger-at-ireland-over-tax-avoidance-1.3417948|title=Europe points finger at Ireland over tax avoidance|publisher=Irish Times|date=7 March 2018}}</ref> While traditionally this distortion manifested itself in divergences between Ireland's GDP and GNI,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/gdp-and-international-comparisons.html|title=International GNI to GDP Comparisons|publisher=Seamus Coffey, University College Cork|date=29 April 2013}}</ref> as the schemes have become more developed (i.e. "[[double Irish|capital allowances for intangibles]]"), Irish GNI and GNP have also become materially distorted. This was most evident in the "[[leprechaun economics]]" affair when Apple restructured its controversial Irish operations (the subject of the EU Commission's €13bn fine) in January 2015 and Irish GDP rose 26.3% while Irish GNP rose 18.7%.

The problem of assessing Ireland's public indebtedness post "[[leprechaun economics]]" and "[[Modified gross national income|modified GNI]]", is captured on page 34 of the OECD 2018 Ireland Survey:<ref name="oecd">{{cite web|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/OECD-survey.pdf|title=OECD Ireland Survey 2018|publisher=OECD|date=March 2018}}</ref>

* On a Gross Public Debt-to-GDP basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at 78.8% is not of concern.
* On a Gross Public Debt-to-GNI* basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at 116.5% is more serious, but not alarming.
* On a Gross Public Debt Per Capita basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at over $62,686 per capita, exceeds every other OECD country, except Japan.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/national-debt-now-44000-per-head-35904197.html|title=National debt now €44000 per head|publisher=Irish Independent|date=7 July 2017}}</ref>

The Fiscal Council introduced a new measure of benchmarking Irish public debt by comparing to Tax Revenues (similar to the Debt-to-EBITDA ratio used in capital markets). On this basis, Ireland's 2016 Gross Public Debt-to-Tax Revenues is 282.9%, which is the 4th highest of the EU-28 (after Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Fiscal-Assessment-Report-June-2017-Presentation.pdf|title=Debt levels remain high following the crisis June FAR Slide 7 | publisher=Irish Fiscal Advisory Council | date=June 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Fiscal-Assessment-Report-June-2017-Final.pdf|title=Section 1.2.2 Recent Fiscal Context June FAR Page 14 | publisher=Irish Fiscal Advisory Council | date=June 2017}}</ref> It shows how difficult making Ireland's EU Debt Rule commitments will be.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Website-AN5.pdf | title=Future Implications of the Debt Rule | publisher=Irish Fiscal Advisory Council | date=June 2014}}</ref>

From this, the Fiscal Council advised the Irish Government against using funds, or proceeds from State asset sales, to stimulate the fast-growing Irish economy, and instead use for debt repayment.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0607/880813-national-debt-it-hasnt-gone-away-you-know/|title=National Debt - it hasn't gone away, you know | publisher=RTE News | date=June 2017}}</ref>

===U.S. Multinationals===
{{see also|Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland#Low tax economy}}
[[File:EUROSTAT Ireland Gross Operating Surplus by Controlling Country, €million 2015.png|thumb|300px|'''Dominance of U.S. Multinationals''': Irish corporate gross operating surplus by the controlling country of the company (note: a material part of the Irish figure is for U.S. tax inversions who are really also U.S.-controlled companies). Eurostat (2015)]]
Corporation tax was 15.1% of Irish tax revenues in 2016 with 80% coming from foreign-owned multinationals.<ref name="rev1">{{cite web|url=https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/research/corporation-tax-returns-2016.pdf|title=An Analysis of 2015 Corporation Tax Returns and 2016 Payments|publisher=Revenue Commissioners|date=April 2017}}</ref> Irish corporate tax revenue jumped 49% in 2015 alone (from €4.61bn to €6.87bn),<ref name="rev1"/> the year of Apple's Irish restructuring. This is in an environment where foreign-owned multinationals, attracted to Ireland's corporate tax system, contributed €28.3bn in payments to the Irish economy in 2016 (corporate taxes, wages, and capital spending).<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.idaireland.com/newsroom/publications/ireland-s-economic-and-competitiveness-update-q1|title=IDA Ireland Competitiveness|publisher=IDA Ireland|date=March 2018}}</ref> It is also in an environment where the 2017 US [[Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017|TCJA]] legislation, and the EU "digital tax" (and [[Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base|CCCTB]]), are threats to the Irish corporate tax system.

The Fiscal Council has reported on the volatility and concentration of Ireland corporation tax payments, with the top 20 payers now making up almost 40% of all corporation tax payments.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/AN-10-Challenges-Forecasting-Irish-Corporation-Tax-Final-Web.pdf|title=Analytical Note 10 Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax |publisher=Irish Fiscal Advisory Council|date=September 2016}}</ref>

The Chairperson of the Fiscal Council, Seamus Coffey, was separately commissioned by the Irish Government to review Ireland's Corporate Tax Code.<ref name="coffey1">{{cite web|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/updates/minister-donohoe-publishes-review-of-irelands-corporation-tax-code/|title=Minister Donohoe publishes Review of Ireland’s Corporation Tax Code|publisher=Department of Finance|date=21 December 2017}}</ref><ref name="coffey2">{{cite web|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/170912-Review-of-Irelands-Corporation-Tax-Code.pdf|title=REVIEW OF IRELAND’S CORPORATION TAX CODE, PRESENTED TO THE MINISTER FOR FINANCE AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM BY MR. SEAMUS COFFEY|publisher=Department of Finance|date=30 January 2017}}</ref> While corporate tax recipts were found to be sustainable for the near future (to 2020),<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/strong-corporate-tax-receipts-sustainable-until-2020-1.3218290?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fstrong-corporate-tax-receipts-sustainable-until-2020-1.3218290|title=Strong corporate tax receipts ‘sustainable’ until 2020| publisher=Irish Times|date=12 September 2017}}</ref> it was recommended that some multinational tax allowances be scaled back (i.e. capital allowances capped at 80%) to improve tax revenue sustainability.

The Fiscal Council noted Ireland's exposure to U.S. multinationals in the June 2018 report and the impact of a single multinational leaving.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/losing-just-one-big-multinational-would-leave-ireland-nursing-a-276m-tax-shortfall-36981003.html|title=Losing just one big multinational would leave Ireland nursing a €276m tax shortfall|publisher=Irish Independent|date=6 June 2018}}</ref> The high exposure of Ireland's economy to U.S. multinationals (14 of Ireland's top 20 firms, a quarter of the Irish labourforce), is discussed in more detail [[Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland#Low tax economy|here]]. The former IMF mission chief to Ireland, [[Ashoka Mody]], has emphasised how the changes to international tax regimes (i.e. [[Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017]]), could make this event likely, and on a bigger and synchronised scale (discussed [[Double Irish arrangement#Effect of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act|here]]):

{{quote|He said the Irish economy won't cope with radical changes to international tax rules [TCJA], which will dent our attractiveness to multinationals. The dire warning of a massive threat to our economy is contained in a hard hitting new book from the former head of the IMF's mission to Ireland. "Without its low-tax regime, Ireland will find it hard to sustain economic momentum," he said.|author=Interview with [[Ashoka Mody]], IMF Chief for Ireland, 9 June 2018.<ref name="ashoka">{{cite web|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/warning-that-ireland-faces-huge-economic-threat-over-corporate-tax-reliance-troika-chief-36992083.html|title=Warning that Ireland faces huge economic threat over corporate tax reliance - Troika chief Mody says country won't be able to cope with changes to tax regime|publisher=Irish Independent|date=9 June 2018}}</ref>}}


==Council==
==Council==

Revision as of 08:10, 25 October 2019

Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
Company typeIndependent Statutory Body
GenreIndependent Fiscal Watchdog
FoundedJuly 2011 (interim)
12 December 2012 (Statutory Basis)
Headquarters
Whitaker Square (ESRI Building),Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin D02 K138
,
Ireland
Area served
Ireland
Key people
Seamus Coffey (Chairperson)
Mr Sebastian Barnes
Dr Íde Kearney
Mr Michael G. Tutty
Dr Martina Lawless
Prof Michael McMahon
ProductsStatutory Body that conducts independent budgetary oversight of Ireland's Government finances, the appropriateness of the overall fiscal stance, compliance with fiscal rules, assessments of Government's forecasts and an endorsement function (endorsing the Government's macroeconomic forecasts)
WebsiteFiscal Council's website

Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Fiscal Council; Template:Lang-ga) is a non-department statutory body providing independent assessments and analysis of the Irish Government's fiscal stance, its economic and budgetary forecasts, and its compliance with fiscal rules. The Fiscal Council was created as part of a wider agenda of budgetary reform after the financial crisis.

The establishment of a fiscal council had been proposed domestically in the National Recovery Plan 2011-2014 and by the Joint Committee on Finance and the Public Service in November 2010. It also became a requirement of the EU/IMF Programme of Financial Support for Ireland (December 2010). Its establishment follows moves to establish independent watchdogs internationally as a means of avoiding repeats of fiscal crises and to promote more transparency around the public finances.[1][2]

Purpose

The Fiscal Council was formed as part of a program of reform of Ireland's "budgetary architecture" post the Irish economic crisis. It was established on an interim basis in July 2011, and legally constituted under the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2012[3] which was part of the EU-IMF Programme of Financial Support for Ireland (and whose terms required the creation of a "budgetary advisory council to provide an independent assessment of Government forecasts").[4][5]

The formation of the Fiscal Council was a response to the perceived failure of established Irish economic and Irish regulatory institutions to anticipate and warn over the consequences of the Irish credit bubble (i.e. the so-called "green jersey agenda"), and/or engage in the concerns that were being raised by various international monitors at the time (IMF and OECD) regarding Ireland's economic situation.[6][7][8]

The Fiscal Council performs a similar role to the "Office for Budget Responsibility" in the United Kingdom (also formed after the financial crisis), and other equivalent members of the "Network of European Union Independent Fiscal Institutions" (which the Fiscal Council joined in September 2015).[9][10]

The Fiscal Council is structured as a Council of five members (one Chairperson) and a supporting analytical team of about seven[6][11]

The formal mandate of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (per the Fiscal Council website) is to:

  • Assess and endorse the Irish Government's official macroeconomic forecasts.
  • Assess the Irish Government's budgetary forecasts.
  • Assess the broader fiscal stance of the Irish Government.
  • Monitor compliance with legislated fiscal rules by the Irish Government.

The Fiscal Council has been well received by Irish financial commentators and its publications are widely covered in the Irish media.[12][13][14][15][16]

Publications

The key mandated publications of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council are:

  • Bi-annual Fiscal Assessment Report (FAR) (produced after the Irish autumn Budget, and the spring Stability Update).[17]
  • Bi-annual Endorsement Letters of macroeconomic forecasts (produced in advance of the Irish autumn Budget, and the spring Stability Update).[18]
  • Annual Pre-Budget Statement (produced before the Irish autumn Budget).[19]
  • Annual Ex-Post Assessment of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule.[20]

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council commenced an annual conference titled “Path for the Public Finances” in March 2017. The goal is to bring attention to long-term Irish State finance issues relevant for Ireland. International speakers attend. Each annual event is intended to focus on a particular theme, which has been:

  • March 2017 Path for the Public Finances: Fiscal Risks.[21]
  • March 2018 Path for the Public Finances: Too Hot, Too Cold! The Irish Cycle.[22]
  • March 2019 Path for the Public Finances: Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability[23]

The Fiscal Council also publishes Analytical Notes and Working Papers in areas of concern to Irish financial stability (including House Prices, Tax Receipts, Public Debt, and EU Rules/Guidelines).[24]

Focus

The Fiscal Council looks at major areas that could affect the stability and confidence levels of Irish macroeconomic forecasts, and/or, create the potential for economic shocks.

Distortion of Irish GDP and GNP

See also: Corporate haven § Distorted GDP/GNP, and Corporate haven § GDP-per-capita tax haven proxy
See also: Modified gross national income

Ireland is a leading corporate tax haven (see Corporate tax haven lists).[25] Extreme distortions of national economic data is a well-known feature of corporate tax havens.[26][27] The top 15 GDP-per-capita countries are heavily represented by traditional and corporate tax havens (see GDP-per-capita and tax havens). The artificial nature of the distortion makes the haven prone to more severe credit cycles as international capital markets misprice the cost of credit to the tax haven in benign times, only to reverse it sharply in times of global stress (see tax haven cycles).

A stunning $12 trillion—almost 40 percent of all foreign direct investment positions globally—is completely artificial: it consists of financial investment passing through empty corporate shells with no real activity. These investments in empty corporate shells almost always pass through well-known tax havens. The eight major pass-through economies—the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Hong Kong SAR, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Ireland, and Singapore—host more than 85 percent of the world’s investment in special purpose entities, which are often set up for tax reasons.

— "Piercing the Veil", International Monetary Fund, June 2018[27]

The Fiscal Council was one of the members of the economic steering group (the Economic Statistics Review Group, or "ESRG"), that Philip R. Lane, the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, convened to create a new economic statistic to replace Irish GDP.[28][29] The metric, also called GNI*, is circa 30% below Irish GDP.[30][31]

Ireland has, more or less, stopped using GDP to measure its own economy. And on current trends [because Irish GDP is distorting EU-28 aggregate data], the eurozone taken as a whole may need to consider something similar.

— Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, "Ireland exports its Leprechaun", 25 April 2018[32]

Irish Public Debt

See also: Leprechaun economics and Modified gross national income

Ireland's economic data is distorted by the tax planning schemes of US multinationals based in Ireland (i.e. "double Irish").[33] While traditionally this distortion manifested itself in divergences between Ireland's GDP and GNI,[34] as the schemes have become more developed (i.e. "capital allowances for intangibles"), Irish GNI and GNP have also become materially distorted. This was most evident in the "leprechaun economics" affair when Apple restructured its controversial Irish operations (the subject of the EU Commission's €13bn fine) in January 2015 and Irish GDP rose 26.3% while Irish GNP rose 18.7%.

The problem of assessing Ireland's public indebtedness post "leprechaun economics" and "modified GNI", is captured on page 34 of the OECD 2018 Ireland Survey:[35]

  • On a Gross Public Debt-to-GDP basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at 78.8% is not of concern.
  • On a Gross Public Debt-to-GNI* basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at 116.5% is more serious, but not alarming.
  • On a Gross Public Debt Per Capita basis, Ireland's 2015 figure at over $62,686 per capita, exceeds every other OECD country, except Japan.[36]

The Fiscal Council introduced a new measure of benchmarking Irish public debt by comparing to Tax Revenues (similar to the Debt-to-EBITDA ratio used in capital markets). On this basis, Ireland's 2016 Gross Public Debt-to-Tax Revenues is 282.9%, which is the 4th highest of the EU-28 (after Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus).[37][38] It shows how difficult making Ireland's EU Debt Rule commitments will be.[39]

From this, the Fiscal Council advised the Irish Government against using funds, or proceeds from State asset sales, to stimulate the fast-growing Irish economy, and instead use for debt repayment.[40]

U.S. Multinationals

See also: Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland § Low tax economy
Dominance of U.S. Multinationals: Irish corporate gross operating surplus by the controlling country of the company (note: a material part of the Irish figure is for U.S. tax inversions who are really also U.S.-controlled companies). Eurostat (2015)

Corporation tax was 15.1% of Irish tax revenues in 2016 with 80% coming from foreign-owned multinationals.[41] Irish corporate tax revenue jumped 49% in 2015 alone (from €4.61bn to €6.87bn),[41] the year of Apple's Irish restructuring. This is in an environment where foreign-owned multinationals, attracted to Ireland's corporate tax system, contributed €28.3bn in payments to the Irish economy in 2016 (corporate taxes, wages, and capital spending).[42] It is also in an environment where the 2017 US TCJA legislation, and the EU "digital tax" (and CCCTB), are threats to the Irish corporate tax system.

The Fiscal Council has reported on the volatility and concentration of Ireland corporation tax payments, with the top 20 payers now making up almost 40% of all corporation tax payments.[43]

The Chairperson of the Fiscal Council, Seamus Coffey, was separately commissioned by the Irish Government to review Ireland's Corporate Tax Code.[44][45] While corporate tax recipts were found to be sustainable for the near future (to 2020),[46] it was recommended that some multinational tax allowances be scaled back (i.e. capital allowances capped at 80%) to improve tax revenue sustainability.

The Fiscal Council noted Ireland's exposure to U.S. multinationals in the June 2018 report and the impact of a single multinational leaving.[47] The high exposure of Ireland's economy to U.S. multinationals (14 of Ireland's top 20 firms, a quarter of the Irish labourforce), is discussed in more detail here. The former IMF mission chief to Ireland, Ashoka Mody, has emphasised how the changes to international tax regimes (i.e. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), could make this event likely, and on a bigger and synchronised scale (discussed here):

He said the Irish economy won't cope with radical changes to international tax rules [TCJA], which will dent our attractiveness to multinationals. The dire warning of a massive threat to our economy is contained in a hard hitting new book from the former head of the IMF's mission to Ireland. "Without its low-tax regime, Ireland will find it hard to sustain economic momentum," he said.

— Interview with Ashoka Mody, IMF Chief for Ireland, 9 June 2018.[48]

Council

Chairperson

Council members

  • Mr. Sebastian Barnes
  • Mr. Michael G. Tutty
  • Dr. Martina Lawless
  • Prof. Michael McMahon
  • (past) Dr. Ide Kearney
  • (past) Professor Alan Barrett
  • (past) Professor Donal Donovan
  • (past) Dr. Róisín O’Sullivan
  • (past) Professor John McHale

See also

References

  1. ^ "Independent fiscal institutions". European Commission - European Commission. Retrieved 2019-10-14.
  2. ^ Beetsma, Roel; Debrun, Xavier (2018-01-29). "Independent Fiscal Councils: Watchdogs or lapdogs?". VoxEU.org. Retrieved 2019-10-14.
  3. ^ "Fiscal Responsibility Act 2012" (PDF). Department of Finance. 2012.
  4. ^ "Ireland bailout: full Irish government statement". The Guardian. 28 November 2010.
  5. ^ "Memorandum of Understanding between the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Department of Finance relating to the "Endorsement Function" of the Council under the Fiscal Responsibility Acts 2012 and 2013" (PDF). IFAC Department of Finance. January 2018.
  6. ^ a b "Irish Fiscal Advisory Council" (PDF). OECD Journal on Budgeting. 2015.
  7. ^ "Failure to heed warnings was cause of crash: Trichet". Irish Independent. 30 January 2015.
  8. ^ "FitzGerald: My regrets over crash are with me until I die". Irish Independent. 12 February 2015.
  9. ^ "What is the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council for?". Irish Independent. 14 June 2015.
  10. ^ "John McHale The man whose job it is to say 'No Minister'". Irish Independent. 13 March 2014.
  11. ^ "Irish Fiscal Advisory Council" (PDF). C&AG Report 2015. 2015.
  12. ^ "Fiscal Advisory Council's timely warning". Irish Times. 7 September 2017.
  13. ^ "Fiscal Council says Ireland is still vulnerable and warns against extra Budget spending". thejournal.ie. 5 September 2017.
  14. ^ "Chairman, Fiscal Advisory Council: 'There's been a very strong recovery - we are now living within our means'". thejournal.ie. 18 January 2018.
  15. ^ "Even if the government refuses listen, having this kind of analysis in the public domain is vital". Sunday Business Post. 30 November 2016.
  16. ^ "Ireland needs continued austerity says watchdog". Financial Times. June 2014.
  17. ^ "Fiscal Assessment Reports". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  18. ^ "Endorsement Letters". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  19. ^ "Pre-Budget Statements". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  20. ^ "Assessments of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  21. ^ "Path for the Public Finances 2017 Fiscal Risks". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2017.
  22. ^ "Path for the Public Finances 2018 Too Hot Too Cold The Irish Cycle". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  23. ^ "Path for the Public Finances, 2019: Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability: Winter is Coming! | Irish Fiscal Advisory Council". Retrieved 2019-10-14.
  24. ^ "IFAC Analytical Notes Series". Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. 2018.
  25. ^ "Ireland is the world's biggest corporate 'tax haven', say academics". Irish Times. 13 June 2018. Study claims State shelters more multinational profits than the entire Caribbean
  26. ^ "How tax havens turn economic statistics into nonsense". Quartz. 11 June 2018.
  27. ^ a b "Piercing the Veil, FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT, JUNE 2018, VOL. 55, NO. 2". IMF Finance & Development. June 2018.
  28. ^ "ESRG Presentation and CSO Response" (PDF). Central Statistics Office. 4 February 2017.
  29. ^ "Leprechaun-proofing economic data". RTE News. 4 February 2017.
  30. ^ "CSO paints a very different picture of Irish economy with new measure". Irish Times. 15 July 2017.
  31. ^ "New economic Leprechaun on loose as rate of growth plunges". Irish Independent. 15 July 2017.
  32. ^ "Ireland Exports its Leprechaun". Council on Foreign Relations. 11 May 2018.
  33. ^ "Europe points finger at Ireland over tax avoidance". Irish Times. 7 March 2018.
  34. ^ "International GNI to GDP Comparisons". Seamus Coffey, University College Cork. 29 April 2013.
  35. ^ "OECD Ireland Survey 2018" (PDF). OECD. March 2018.
  36. ^ "National debt now €44000 per head". Irish Independent. 7 July 2017.
  37. ^ "Debt levels remain high following the crisis June FAR Slide 7" (PDF). Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. June 2017.
  38. ^ "Section 1.2.2 Recent Fiscal Context June FAR Page 14" (PDF). Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. June 2017.
  39. ^ "Future Implications of the Debt Rule" (PDF). Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. June 2014.
  40. ^ "National Debt - it hasn't gone away, you know". RTE News. June 2017.
  41. ^ a b "An Analysis of 2015 Corporation Tax Returns and 2016 Payments" (PDF). Revenue Commissioners. April 2017.
  42. ^ "IDA Ireland Competitiveness". IDA Ireland. March 2018.
  43. ^ "Analytical Note 10 Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax" (PDF). Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. September 2016.
  44. ^ "Minister Donohoe publishes Review of Ireland's Corporation Tax Code". Department of Finance. 21 December 2017.
  45. ^ "REVIEW OF IRELAND'S CORPORATION TAX CODE, PRESENTED TO THE MINISTER FOR FINANCE AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM BY MR. SEAMUS COFFEY" (PDF). Department of Finance. 30 January 2017.
  46. ^ "Strong corporate tax receipts 'sustainable' until 2020". Irish Times. 12 September 2017.
  47. ^ "Losing just one big multinational would leave Ireland nursing a €276m tax shortfall". Irish Independent. 6 June 2018.
  48. ^ "Warning that Ireland faces huge economic threat over corporate tax reliance - Troika chief Mody says country won't be able to cope with changes to tax regime". Irish Independent. 9 June 2018.
  49. ^ "John McHale to step down as fiscal council chief". Irish Time. 25 October 2016.
  50. ^ "Michael Noonan appoints Seamus Coffey as Chairperson of Fiscal Advisory Council". 21 December 2016.
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