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On March 15th, 1968, Gene McCarthy came 7 % points shy of defeating the President in New Hampshire.
On March 15th, 1968, Gene McCarthy came 7 % points shy of defeating the President in New Hampshire.


==Future==
==2008==
{{Future election candidate}}
{{Future election candidate}}
[[Image:2008_GOP_New_Hampshire.jpg|450px]]<ref>[[Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire]]</ref>[[Image:2008_Demo_New_Hampshire.jpg|450px]]<ref>[[Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire]]</ref><br>
[[Image:2008_GOP_New_Hampshire.jpg|450px]]<ref>[[Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire]]</ref>[[Image:2008_Demo_New_Hampshire.jpg|450px]]<ref>[[Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire]]</ref><br>

Revision as of 08:31, 22 October 2007

The New Hampshire primary is the first of a number of statewide political party primary elections held in the United States every four years, as part of the process of the Democratic and Republican parties choosing their candidate for the presidential elections on the subsequent November. Held in the small New England state of New Hampshire, it traditionally marks the opening of the quadrennial U.S. presidential election, although that status is threatened in 2007, as both the Republican and Democratic National Committees are moving to give more populous states a bigger influence in the presidential race. [1] Individual states are also seeking a bigger role in the selection of party nominees on their own. [1]

Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly usually drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who do well suddenly become contenders, gaining huge amounts of media attention and money. The media gives New Hampshire - and Iowa, the first state to hold a party caucus, usually a week before the New Hampshire primary - about half of all the attention paid to all states in the primary process, magnifying the state's decision power.[2] This has spurred repeated efforts by out-of-state Democrats to change the rules and by other states to try to attain the status of being the first primary in the nation.[3]

It is not a closed primary, meaning that independents - people not registered with a particular political party - can vote in either party primary. However, people registered as Republican or as Democrat on voting day cannot vote in the primary of the other party, as is the case in a common definition of open primary.

Significance

Since 1977, New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation. As a result, the state has had to move its primary, originally in March, earlier in the year to remain the first. The primary was held on February 20 in 1996, on February 1 in 2000, and on January 27 in 2004 to compete with earlier primaries in other states. The date has not yet been set for 2008.

Before the less-binding Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s, the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive the party nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.

Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a caucus, the primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The fact that the primary is based on the popular vote means that it gives less well known candidates a chance to pull ahead. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits independents, not just registered party members, to vote in a party's primary.

New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because liberals consider the state not diverse and thus not representative of the country's voters. 2000 Census data show that the state is 96% white, versus 75% nationally. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors. For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.

Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped drive him to victory in later primaries.

New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is highlighted in the documentary film Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.

History

New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a third term.

The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who, as a write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race. [2] Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996.


1968

The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was easily one of the most important and turbulent events in the politics of the crucial year. Senator Eugene McCarthy began his campaign with a famous poem that he wrote, in imitation of the poet Robert Lowell, "Are you running with me Jesus.":

I'm not matching my stride
With Billy Graham's by the Clyde
I'm not going for distance
With the Senator's persistence
I'm not trying to win a race
even at George Romney's pace.
I'm an existential runner,
Indifferent to space
I'm running here in place ...
Are you with me Jesus ? [4]

A principal architect of the McCarthy candidacy was Allard Kenneth Lowenstein who approached the Senator after speaking with several prospective candidates including Robert F. Kennedy.

Lowenstein drew on college campuses across the country as a source of manpower and strength. At first funding was sparse; however, after the Tet Offensive, money flowed into the campaign. Senator Kennedy's entry into the race also brought a great number of dollars into the campaign to "stop Kennedy."

In Nov. of 1967 Gene McCarthy declared, that "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" to gage the country's response and conduct a candidacy for the presidency of the United States by entering the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

Senator Eugene McCarthy won the primary by forcing Johnson out of the race and reducing his margin of victory, whose campaign staff poor mouthed furiously in the closing weeks, declaring that their candidate, President Johnson, was the underdog.

The shift in Democratic primary voters was understood to have occurred because of the Tet Offensive, demonstrating the inability to achieve progress on the part of the Johnson Administration in the war in Vietnam.

Richard Goodwin famously made the remark to Seymour Hersch "with these two typewriters we are going to overthrow the American government." [5]

Paul Newman was a fixture on the campaign trail alongside the Senator, keeping him refreshed and working with him in calling people forth to stand for peace.

President Johnson would subsequently withdraw from the election following the 1968 New Hampshire Primary in a statement that soon followed, "I shall not seek and will not accept the nomination of my party for another term in office."

On March 15th, 1968, Gene McCarthy came 7 % points shy of defeating the President in New Hampshire.

2008

Template:Future election candidate File:2008 GOP New Hampshire.jpg[6][7]
Following the 2004 presidential election, some elements in the Democratic Party proposed new primary calendars that would end the New Hampshire primary's first in the nation status. The Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling issued a report at the end of 2005, recommending adding several caucuses ahead of New Hampshire's primary. The recommendations have been approved by the full Democratic National Committee. However, New Hampshire state law requires the primary to take place seven days before any other "similar contest," which state officials have always interpreted to mean any contest other than Iowa's caucus. The Republican Party, meanwhile, has maintained its support of the current primary calendar. New Hampshire officials indicate they will force candidates who want to campaign in the state to follow New Hampshire rules and skip any primary that is "too close" in time. It is unlikely that a serious candidate could risk skipping New Hampshire with its vast media attention. Furthermore the penalty for breaking DNC rules is trivial: the National Convention can strip away the delegates won in New Hampshire--but those are few. Of course, the Presidential nominee controls the convention and is unlikely to strip away his or her own delegates.

References

  • Brereton, Charles (1987). First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary. Portsmouth, N.H.: Peter E. Randall. ISBN 0-914339-20-6.
  • Casey, Susan Berry (1986). Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey... and Beyond. Concord, N.H.: NHI Press. ISBN 0-9617115-0-7.
  • Cash, Kevin (1975). Who the Hell Is William Loeb?. Manchester, N.H.: Amoskeag Press.
  • Palmer, Niall A. (1997). The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process. Westport, Conn.: Praeger. ISBN 0-275-95569-9. online version
  • Scala, Dante J. (2003). Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-312-29622-3.

Winners and runners-up

Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.

Democrats

Republicans

2004 Democratic results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
John Kerry 84,377 38.4 13
Howard Dean 57,761 26.3 9
Wesley Clark 27,314 12.4 0
John Edwards 26,487 12.1 0
Joseph Lieberman 18,911 8.6 0
Dennis Kucinich 3,114 1.4 0
Richard Gephardt 419 0.2 0
Al Sharpton 347 0.2 0
George W. Bush 257 0.1 0
Other 1,000 0.5 0
Total 219,787 100 22 (of 27)

Sources: Union-Leader (Manchester, NH), CNN, New Hampshire Department of State

2004 Republican results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
George W. Bush 53,962 79.55 29
All Others 13,907 20.45
John Kerry 3,009 4.44
Howard Dean 1,888 2.78
Wesley Clark 1,467 2.16
Joseph Lieberman 941 1.39
John Edwards 916 1.35
Richard Boza 841 1.24
John Buchanan 836 1.23
John Rigazio 803 1.18
Robert Haines 579 0.85
Michael Callis 388 0.57
Blake Ashby 264 0.39
Millie Howard 239 0.35
Tom Laughlin 154 0.23
Bill Wyatt 153 0.23
Scatter 1393 2.05
Total 67,833 100 29

Sources: Concord Monitor, New Hampshire Department of State, [3], [4], [5]

2000 Democratic results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
Al Gore 76,681 52 13
Bill Bradley 69,933 48 9
Other 1,184 0 0
Total 147,798 100 22 (of 27)

Source: CNN

2000 Republican results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
John McCain 115,490 49 9
George W. Bush 72,262 30 6
Steve Forbes 30,197 13 2
Alan Keyes 15,196 6 0
Gary Bauer 1,656 1 0
Other 2,001 1 0
Total 236,802 100 17

Source: CNN

Vice-Presidential results

A much-overlooked Vice-Presidential ballot is also held at the New Hampshire Primary. The following candidates received the greatest number of votes at each election.

Year Republican Democratic Libertarian
2004 Dick Cheney* John Edwards*
2000 William Bryk Wladislav D. Kubiak
1996 Colin Powell* Al Gore* Irwin Schiff*
1992 Herb Clark Jr. Endicott Peabody Nancy Lord*
1988 Wayne Green David Duke
1984 George Bush* Gerald Willis
1980 Jesse A. Helms Walter Mondale*
1976 Wallace Johnson Auburn Lee Packwood
1972 Spiro Agnew* unknown
1968 Austin Burton Hubert Humphrey*
1964 Richard Nixon* Robert Kennedy*
1960 Wesley Powell* Wesley Powell*
1956 Richard Nixon* Adlai Stevenson*
1952 Styles Bridges* Estes Kefauver*

* - write-in candidate

Sources: New Hampshire Department of State, New Hampshire Political Library

See also

Resources

  1. ^ Scala 2003
  2. ^ In 2004 48% of the TV spending by candidates went to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
  3. ^ Scala 2003
  4. ^ Society on the Run: A European View of Life Werner Peters page xi contribution by Senator Eugene McCarthy
  5. ^ 1968 in America: Music, Politics, Chaos, Counterculture, and the Shaping of a Generation Charles Kaiser Chapter: The Truth Comes Home P 113
  6. ^ Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#New_Hampshire
  7. ^ Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#New_Hampshire
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