Talk:Swing state

I deleted "more Presidents have come from Ohio than from any other state" since it listed 5. There have been 7 or 8 from Virginia. RickK | Talk 04:10, 19 Mar 2004 (UTC)

Wow, I should have realized that. I thought for sure I'd heard that there were more Ohioans than any other; my fault for not thinking of Virginia. Dur. Meelar 06:39, 19 Mar 2004 (UTC)

Part of it depends whether you're talking about where the person was from at the time of the election, or where he was born (for example, George W. Bush was born in Connecticut, but in the public cognizance he's "from" Texas). Ohio and Virginia are tied as far as birthplace goes; Ohio includes Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Harrison, McKinley, Taft, and Harding. I guess after the corruption of the Harding administration we just gave up. --Birdhombre 17:59, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

First time commenting here, hope I don't blow it up. But Ohio went for Nixon in 1960, one of the very few times (I believe FDR in 1944 was the only other in the 20th c.) that it didn't break for the winner. I've never been able to find a source to back this up, but allegedly Kennedy said that Ohio "broke his heart." - DavidNYC, author of the Swing State Project http://www.swingstateproject.com

---

Whoever listed Delaware, what was the source? Doubts have been raised. Yours, Meelar 23:24, 13 Apr 2004 (UTC)

Meelar, thanks for stopping by my blog. I think the confusion about Delaware is that while it's been a *bellwether* for a very long time (since 1952, in fact) - in other words, it's gone with the winner every time (except in 2000) - it isn't very likely to swing back to the GOP anymore. I'm not sure why that is precisely, but it favored Gore by a large margin in 2000 and is likely to go Dem again by a big margin this year. Basically, almost no one I know of thinks DE is in play this time around, and I'd be very surprised if either candidate spends any time or money there. - DavidNYC

One other bit of color, in case you are interested: Ohio actually went with the winner in every election from 1900 to 2000 except in 1944 (when it went for Dewey by less than 0.5%) and 1960 (when it went for Nixon by about 6.5%). - DavidNYC

No consistent distinction between swing and battleground states

68.167.249.223 02:38, 6 Jun 2004 (UTC): Based on a random review of reputable news and .edu websites, the distinction made here and in battleground state between the two terms does not reflect reality:

News

• http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/politics/campaign2004/03%20battleground.pdf PDF
• http://www.cnn.com/interactive/allpolitics/0010/battleground.states/battlegroundstates.html
• http://www.economist.com/World/na/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2651806
• http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html
• http://slate.msn.com/id/2101779/
• http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-02-26-ohio-battleground_x.htm

Universities

• http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/battleground04.html
• http://www.usfca.edu/fromm/lubalin.html
• http://www.ithaca.edu/library/htmls/elect.html
• http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/csp/elections/
• http://www.nyu.edu/ofp/news.html

The two terms are used interchangeably; if these sites don't convince, do your own search on the two terms. I proposed eliminating the distinction and redirecting references into a common article.

I found these to be very convincing. Nice work, and thank you! Have you considered creating an account? These articles could use you. Anyway, I agree with your suggestion--I think battleground state should, in light of this, redirect to swing state (I'm not just being arbitrary--"swing state" gets 38,000 google hits, while "battleground state" gets half as many). Jengod, any objections? Best wishes, Meelar 05:09, 6 Jun 2004 (UTC)

67.100.125.66 04:38, 8 Jun 2004 (UTC): Updated to reflect this...

All swing states are, by definition, battleground states. (Ohio, for example.) But not all battleground states are swing states. (North Carolina, for example.) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.86.92.126 (talk) 04:09, 24 September 2008 (UTC)

2004 swing states

Having three different lists of swing states in this section seems a bit unnecessary to me; it also makes the article harder to read. How about purging the third one and change the preceding paragraph into something like "A survey conducted by a firm for the Bush campaign also gave a figure of 19 states, but with one change: It cited Colorado instead of Delaware."

Also, the criteria for inclusion on the first list in the paragraph (the bullet list of "close outcomes") are unclear. Especially North Carolina's merits can be doubted. The percentage margin was smaller in California (11.8%) as well as in Vermont (9.9%). The difference in number of votes was smaller in several states, including, obviously, several rock-solid Republican states with populations hardly reaching the NC victory margin, such as Montana and Wyoming. I assume NC is listed here due to the possibility of an Edwards factor, but in my opinion it would then make more sense mentioning the state later in the paragraph instead. Or, even better, merging the lists into one, preferrably sorted by victory margin. Alarm 18:29, 1 Sep 2004 (UTC)

• I think this section should break out to become its out article ✏ Sverdrup 11:42, 29 Sep 2004 (UTC)

• Speaking of swing states, New Jersey could be considered a swing state, as the 2006 elections for Senate was closer than it was in the pat. Also, the elections have been getting closer, and NJ may go 'red' in 2008. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Eisen8388 (talk • contribs).

And THAT... was largely because of the 9/11 factor. NJ is a heavily suburban state, and Bush fared better in NYC's suburbs in 2004 than 2000, because of 9/11. The 2006 race for Senate was close, because Mendenez's approval ratings weren't all that high. And did you know that many people actually thought Kean would beat Mendenez? Also, Cardin won over Steele in what was considered to be a close race in Maryland, but I doubt anybody's going to consider THAT a swing state anytime soon.

If you want a good look at how NJ and NY go without the 9/11 boost, look at 2000. If you never noticed, Gore scored 56% in Jersey, and broke 60% in New York.

And to clear some things up... -Hawaii. Sure, it was closer in 2004. But it has a heavy pro-incumbent bias. Just look at the results from 1988-1992-1996. You'd see a huge swing towards the incumbent party every time. -Margins: You can't just look at the margins. If you look at the margins of victory from 2000-2004, you could come under the impression (almost) the whole nation became more Republican. That really isn't the case.

Post-November

This page could use some contemporary additions.

California

Didn't they go for republican as recently as 1988, surely they are a swing state? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Ajuk (talk • contribs) 22:48, 29 April 2007 (UTC).

California was a red state from the 50s till 1992, then it flipped to a Democratic state. It supports Democrats by significant margins.

No, no, no! California is no swing state. See, how you can figure out if a state is swing or not is if it has voted for a candidate by less than 10 points consistently, or if the winning candidate fails to break 54%. California meets neither criteria.

It is true that California went Democratic in the latest four elections, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004. However, in the ten elections before that (1952-1988), it voted Republican nine times out of ten! (The only exception being 1964). (See this link: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/). So, would it not be more correct to consider California a swing state? Paul kuiper NL (talk) 20:56, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

No it wouldn't, because a swing state is a state that's up for grabs in any individual election, not a state that's been one by either party. Given the national realignment in the 70's and 80's, by your logic most states would be swing states. California's probably one of the most reliably democratic states that there is (after Hawaii, Massachusetts, and New York). 59.38.32.9 (talk) 12:25, 15 November 2008 (UTC)

question

If Arkansas votes for Hillary Clinton in 2008, as it is expected to, is it now a swing state, or a safe state that had a democratic burp? 72.230.61.217 09:36, 23 May 2007 (UTC)

Well, since both US Senators, 3 out of 4 US Congressional Representatives, and the Governor are all Democrats (and they voted for Clinton both times and Bush both times) I would say Arkansas is sufficiently purple. They probably deserve to be considered a "swing state". (Cardsplayer4life 22:57, 20 June 2007 (UTC))

Also, they are already listed in the List of 2000 swing states, and the List of 2004 swing states. I am going to go ahead and add them. (Cardsplayer4life 02:10, 22 June 2007 (UTC))

But the thing is, Arkansas's Democratic party hasn't gone through the death stage that those of Texas and Georgia have went through. Same with WV. They're solidly Democratic on the state level, but does that really mean they're solid blue on the presidential level?

Choice of Polls Used

The polls cited in every case use Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and alternate the Republican nominee between Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. While it may be a bit of a stretch to ask for polls that use John McCain as the Republican nominee, it forms an incredibly incomplete picture to not cite polls that show Barack Obama and John Edwards as nominees on the Democratic side.

I also think it's important to note why this will give a better picture: John Edwards outperforms Hillary Clinton against every Democratic candidate according to Rasmussen polls (the most oft-cited pollster in this article) and Barack Obama has a very different performance state-by-state vs. both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. 67.168.213.168 21:51, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

The problem is that Rasmussen is just polling Clinton vs. the Republicans (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, McCain) in their state polls. I saw Obama and Edwards included in their recent Massachusetts poll, but Massachusetts is hardly a swing-state. They also included Obama in their Illinois poll, also not a swing state. I´d prefer Clinton vs. Giuliani polls though until we know the party nominees, as both Clinton and Giuliani already experience about a 100% name recognition, making the definition of a swing state more accurate, rather than pitting a less-known Obama against a less-known Romney. --The Pollster 11:39, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Definition, Origin and Inclusion or Exclusion of Swing States

I'm working on revamping this entire article since there is a slant towards what is "defined" as a swing state in terms of the 2000 and 2004 elections. Historically, swing states have been fluid, particularly so after a two-term presidency and arguably more so when generations redefine the major issues of the day (World War, depression, civil rights, energy, economy, Iraq War, health care, etc.). The snipets currently offered in this article do not accurately represent the historic nature of swing states. To segue into the current definition, not enough attention or examples are given to how polling, media reports, public perception, and other factors weigh in on determining swing states in addition to hard data such as voter registration and previous election returns (and perhaps most importantly, how candidates use all the above information in determining the worthiness of campaigning in any particular state).

While the elections of 2000 and 2004 were similar (most "blue" and "red" states remained the same), that has not been the case in past elections (Johnson, Reagan and H.W. Bush almost won every state, Carter won the south, Clinton won western and southern states). Another minor addition that I believe is necessary is the "favorite son or daughter" factor in determining certain swing states.

That said, I wish to gauge opinion as to whether the following states should be included in the current crop of 2008 battleground states:

CONNECTICUT: Clinton leads Giuliani by 6-7 points in various polls. I don't have information about the remaining candidates. CT has shifted between both parties in previous elections. CT media and local Democratic groups have stated Giuliani makes the state competitive in 2008. In 2006, a Republican governor was elected by a comfortable majority and Joe Lieberman was reelected Senator as an independent after leaving the Democratic party. Voter registration data from 2004 and 2006 does not indicate an advantage for either party.

KENTUCKY: Similar to CT, Kentucky media is reporting the state as a potential battleground in 2008. Clinton leads in one poll (as does Edwards and Obama), yet another has Giuliani in the lead against Clinton (no information is available about the other candidates). Bill Clinton has been campaigning in Kentucky recently and local news outlets report that Hillary could "recapture" the state "her husband won in 1992 and 1996." I'm evaluating the voter registration data but nothing stands out to benefit either party.

NEW JERSEY: Clinton and Giuliani are in a statistical tie in NJ according to polls (1-3 points depending on the source). No information is available about the other candidates except Edwards, who would also be competitive against Giuliani. Like CT, Giuliani may be a factor in NJ due to his reported popularity in the region. Voter registration is inconclusive.

TENNESSEE: Other than Thompson, Clinton is ahead in most polls in TN. Local news reports the "potential" of TN as a battleground in 2008. Democratic organizations also report an increase in field efforts in the state, possibly to increase voter registration which may prove significant since Republican registration has been stagnant since 2004. On the other hand, Harold Ford lost his bid for the Senate in 2006 after it was reported he was a "shoe-in" based on "growing opposition in TN to the Iraq War."

TEXAS: This is a wild card but I thought it interesting to note that the Dallas Morning News conducted a survey, concluding: "if the election were held today, 36 percent of Texans would vote for Mr. McCain, 35 percent for Mrs. Clinton and 29 percent undecided." The same survey indicates that Clinton has a 3-1 advantage over Giuliani. Since no other candidates were included in the survey, voter registration benefits Republicans, and election data makes TX a "strong" Republican state (regardless of any nominee on either side), I am not certain Texas is a strong case for inclusion at this time. -JPmaverick 04:27, 6 October 2007 (UTC)

• These are interesting maps: Image:2004CampaignAttention.png. I think if 2008 brings us a moderately liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican, the 2008 maps will be similar (with exceptions for native sons/daughter). If Giuliani actually succeeds in getting the nomination, I strongly suspect that we'll see a conservative third party challenger. If that happens, some of the reddest states will turn blue, with a three-way split, and recent swing states will turn red (Giuliani attracting moderates). So the swing state map would look totally different with Giuliani in the race. For that reason, I think the more encyclopedic track would be to talk about swing states in relation to 2000 and 2004, at least until the nominees are more certain. Otherwise, you could take the five leading Democrats against the five leading Republicans and come up with 25 (OK, realistically 6-8) different maps depending on the specific candidates. I believe Clinton/Obama/Edwards wouldn't change the map much, but Thompson/Giuliani/Romney cause huge shifts.--Appraiser 06:41, 6 October 2007 (UTC)

My opinion on the "swing states" you mentioned: If Giuliani IS the GOP nominee, he would have some serious appeal in the Tri-state-area, as well as PA and OH. But when additionally asuming that Clinton will be the DEM nominee it´s all becoming murkier. Hillary Clinton is a force in New England. Various polls have shown her trouncing Giuliani in NY state. The latest Rasmussen CT poll has Clinton ahead of Giuliani by 6 points, while she has massive leads against Thompson and Romney in that state. In New Jersey, Clinton has closed a 10-point deficit with Giuliani since the beginning of 2007 and both are now even according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. She even pulled ahead in a recent Rutgers poll. Additionally, no other (more socially conservative Republican - Thompson, Romney, McCain - stands a chance against her in the Garden state). With respect to Kentucky, Tennessee and Texas, the situation is reversed. Social-Liberal Giuliani would probably struggle more than Thompson, Romney against Clinton, but there are not enough polls out yet for this assumption. --The Pollster 06:46, 6 October 2007 (UTC)

This is getting ridiculous. Before you know it, every state's gonna be considered a swing state. Just cause some pre-preliminary primary poll says something doesn't really mean squat. Swing states are determined largely by precedent, and it is very rare that a state will swing more than 10 percentage points from one side in 2000 or 2004 to the other side in 2008. I think it's safe to say that if the state went to Bush by over 55% in either 2000 or 2004, or to Gore/Kerry by over 55% in 2000 or 2004, it's not a swing state. Unless we get a major third party candidate (like Perot), which doesn't appear likely at this time. But I'm sorry...Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas...these places are not going to go Democrat in 2008. Abog 04:35, 4 December 2007 (UTC)

Current map

The current map shows Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia as Swing States, however the article fails to mention those four. The minimum requirement for being on the map should be a paragraph rationalizing their characterization as swing states.--Appraiser (talk) 15:30, 11 February 2008 (UTC)

Agreed. Note also that Indiana's page says "Indiana has long been considered to be a Republican stronghold. It has only supported a Democrat for president four times since 1900 -- in 1912, 1932, 1936 and 1964." So... sorry, but Indiana's not a swing state, and the map is definitely inaccurate in that regard. I'm considering removing it, and hopefully someone will make a more accurate map (which I don't know how to do). Thoughts? Kier07 (talk) 04:24, 17 February 2008 (UTC)

Yes, the argument can be made for pretty much every state on the current map except Indiana. Subsurd (talk) 05:06, 20 February 2008 (UTC)

Here is a source for the possibility of Indiana switching, Washington Post. HoosierState^Talk 00:26, 11 March 2008 (UTC)

Well, that's a source. It could be the basis for a paragraph about Indiana being added as a swing state. I STILL think that the map should only show states for which there is a section explaining why it's a swing state. (Kentucky, Tennessee, & West Virginia are still missing.) My opinion is that that old (11/07) clipping is totally bogus. If Obama or Clinton wins Indiana, the election will be a total blowout. If McCain wins at least 10 states, Indiana will be one of them - just my opinion.--Appraiser (talk) 13:15, 11 March 2008 (UTC)

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is clearly a swing state if there ever was one - see here for instance. -Nichlemn (talk) 04:10, 27 March 2008 (UTC)

I agree; more info at 270towin.com[Link] Closer split in 2004 than many of the other swing states, and a closer split according to polls now, coupled with not nearly as solid a voting history as (for example) Minnesota... What was the reasoning behind not having it be a swing state? Alpha dk (talk) 02:52, 1 April 2008 (UTC)

I second both arguments. Wisconsin met the criteria for swing state in 2000 and 2004 based on previous election results and voter registration, as noted in the links provided by Nichlemn and Alpha dk. The most recent poll from Rasmussen also confirms that Wisconsin (to date) is, by definition, a swing state in 2008. JPmaverick (talk) 05:39, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

EDITS

Minnesota and Michigan are strong Democratic States, please fix the problem. Dwilso 05:38, 13 April 2008 (UTC)

The way to fix this is by adding reliable sources. -- Rick Block (talk) 06:13, 13 April 2008 (UTC)

Minnesota

Minnesota has been democratic since 1970, and Wisconsin has been Democrat since 1980. Just because a state has voted Republican once or twice doesn't mean it's a swing state. Thank You! 69.108.139.173 (talk) 11:23, 17 April 2008 (UTC)

The purple and green in these maps Image:2004CampaignAttention.png indicate which states were "in play" in 2004, which means that the campaigns thought the states could "swing" in or out of their favor. PA, MI, MN and WI are all in that category.--Appraiser (talk) 13:01, 17 April 2008 (UTC)

New Image (Swing State map)

"A swing state (also, battleground state or purple state)"

As the opening line of this article states, purple best identifies which states are potentially up for grabs in 2008 when looking at the image. Previous images have used shades of blue and red, which may indicate bias. Similarly, green, yellow, and orange are not apt to use either because various Electoral College maps (readily available online) use these colors to identify third party victories and anomalies in past elections.

Current Swing States

Now that the Democratic field has narrowed and the Republican party has a presumptive nominee, opinion polls (coupled with 2004 election results, voter registration, etc.) are increasingly important to note as we include CURRENT swing states. That said, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin have been readded as swing states because they meet all the criteria - by definition - for a swing state. I will clean up the language and add citations, as well as provide links to reliable sources if any of these states are the subject of dispute.

Possible States to Delete from Map

While these states may have, historically, been swing states, they have not been the case in 2000 and 2004:

ARKANSAS Arkansas was in play in 2000 [1], yet Bush won that year and again in 2004. Hillary Clinton was polling 20-30 points ahead of all GOP contenders (except Huckabee) in a Rasmussen poll in December 2007 (link deactivated). The most recent poll from Rasmussen [2] indicates McCain is leading Clinton by 7 points and Obama by 29 points. Given the obvious disparity in polling numbers, I'm inclined to keep Arkansas as a potential swing state should Clinton capture the Democratic nomination, but not if Obama becomes the nominee.

CONNECTICUT Unlike Arkansas, Clinton becomes a factor if she is the Democratic nominee in terms of making Connecticut (a "blue state" since 1988) up for grabs. Quinnipiac [3] and Rasmussen [4] shows Obama ahead of McCain by 17 and 12 points, respectively; Clinton is ahead of McCain by 3 in both polls. Obama has clear advantage in a state that is traditionally blue whereas Clinton does not. I'm not sure this state should be included unless Clinton wins the Democratic nomination since opinion polls aren't enough to determine a true swing state and CT has not been "in play" for a decade.

KENTUCKY Polling data from Survey USA [5] indicates a 2 point lead for McCain against Clinton, yet Obama trails by double-digits. I have yet to research voting trends/registration so perhaps that will determine if Kentucky is worthy of inclusion. I'm reluctant since this appears to be another Clinton anomaly (as with Arkansas). —Preceding unsigned comment added by JPmaverick (talk • contribs) 08:26, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

MASSACHUSETTS Similar to Arkansas, Clinton is not a factor if she becomes the Democratic nominee. Both Rasmussen [6] and Survey USA [7] show Clinton with a comfortable lead over McCain, yet Obama leads by 2 and 7 points, respectively. As with Arkansas and Connecticut, I don't think MA should be included unless Obama is the Democratic nominee and all other criteria for a swing state is met. Reagan was the last presidential contender - in 1986 - to win this state (well over a decade ago).

NEW JERSEY Unlike the states mentioned above, New Jersey is a possible flip for McCain since polling data indicates an uncertainty. Quinnipiac [8] and Rasmussen [9] show both Democratic contenders in different positions against McCain. NJ last voted Republican in 1988. NJ may be a true swing state in 2008 but until I can research the voting trends/registration, state elections, etc., I'm not sure if this should be included.

Swing states

This article should represent "Presidential" elections only. Because if we include mayor, senatorial elections, everybody would be a swing state. Dwilso 17:44, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

I don't understand why you deleted states such as MN, WI, and MI. In 2004, they were clearly "in-play" as can be seen from the "visits and money" map. Determining which states are "swing states" in 2008 is difficult to determine before the party tickets are established. For example, CT may be a "swing state" if Lieberman is on the R ticket, and AR will be a "swing state" only if Clinton is on the D ticket. At this point, I think the best data we have is based on the time and money spent by the 2004 candidates. The current version of the article is way out of touch with that data.--Appraiser (talk) 18:35, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

Is Minnesota a swinger, the Dem's have won that state by 4% margin since the late 1970's. I am shocked why people think it's a swing state. Dwilso 19:27, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

I am only basing my opinion on the money and time spent in MN in 2004. If Bush didn't think he had a chance and Kerry didn't think he could lose it, they wouldn't have been there. Also, why is VA in the discussion? VA Republican margins:

• 2004,8%
• 2000,8%
• 1996,2%
• 1992,4%
• 1988,20%
• 1984,25%
• 1980,13%
• 1976,1%
• 1972,37%

And in 2004, neither candidate visited Virginia or spent any money there in the five weeks before the election. Virginia doesn't look like a swing state from the data. On the other hand, it will be if Jim Webb is a VP candidate.--Appraiser (talk) 23:10, 18 April 2008 (UTC)

It's 2008, Bush and the GOP are very unpopular, Virginia has a Democratic governor and a popular Democratic Senator (though he barely won in 2006) and the current GOP Senator is losing by double digits in the polls. I still bet it goes for McCain, but it's worth calling a swing state. Swing state doesn't have to mean "50-50"; in this article it can include states that could reasonably go either way.

Also, make sure to use PNG images when you make new maps. You can save images in the PNG format in Paint, as well as many other programs, like Gimp. PNG images aren't grainy like the JPEGs people have been uploading. SteveSims (talk) 21:20, 22 April 2008 (UTC)

Texas

A SurveyUSA poll released last month has both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama within one percentage point of John McCain in the state of Texas [10].

Texas's ethnic diversity, particularly with regard to its Hispanic population, is part of what is propelling this, but in any case there is a realistic chance that the Democratic candidate for president could carry the state's thirty-four electoral votes in November.

For these reasons, I feel that Texas should be listed as a swing state (one of even greater significance than electoral powerhouse Florida), which it now blatantly is.

SwedishConqueror (talk) 02:50, 23 April 2008 (UTC)SwedishConqueror

I don't think so, Texas is a republican stronghold and always has been, although It 'almost' voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, texas has gone back to it's republican roots. Dwilso 03:04, 23 April 2008 (UTC)

The polls paint a very different picture, and individual opinions really don't matter. If 49% of Texans support Obama, then 49% of Texans support Obama, case closed.

SwedishConqueror (talk) 02:46, 24 April 2008 (UTC)SwedishConqueror

'Texas' does not appear to be in the column, because it has voted Republican the past couple decades, It is not even close to being a swing state. 67.99.103.78 (talk) 03:29, 24 April 2008 (UTC)

What this article is about

I think this article is essentially a mess because we haven't figured out the purpose and scope of the article. In the U.S. we have safe Republican states, safe Democratic states, and "swing states", those in which "any of the major candidates have a reasonable chance of winning the state's electoral college votes." Each election year is going to vary somewhat depending on the individual candidates. In 2004, "swing states" can easily be recognized by looking at this list [11] and the maps Image:2004CampaignAttention.png, both of which clearly include Pennsylvania and Minnesota. In 2008 Texas, Arkansas, Virginia, and even Connecticut could be swing states depending on the candidates (and VP candidates). So we need to decide what definition we're going to use as we work on this article. Is it going to be constantly evolving based on the most current polling, changing slowly based on the most recent election, or based on 20- 30- or 40-year trends. The article and main map will be very different depending on how we view the encyclopedia. In order to cut down on all the reverting, I suggest that we first figure out what bases we're going to use to define "swing state" and we need to realize that whatever definitions we use, the decision will conflict with the other possible definitions and certain states may be in or out, to the consternation of editors who haven't bought into the consensus.--Appraiser (talk) 04:24, 24 April 2008 (UTC)

Current Swing States in an Obama-McCain Matchup

[12] —Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.174.73.27 (talk) 22:40, 12 May 2008 (UTC)

Map of swing states is missing several obvious states

PA, MI and MN should definitely be on the swing state map. Also if Colorado is listed OR and WA should be as well. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 158.143.134.123 (talk) 17:19, 18 May 2008 (UTC)

I'd agree. This is how it probably breaks down, as of now, in an Obama-McCain matchup (not accounting for VPs)

Main swing states: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Secondary or Long-Shot Obama targets: Montana, North Dakota, 1 of Nebraska's EVs, Alaska, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississipi, Georgia, Texas

Secondary or Long-Shot McCain targets: Oregon, Washington, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine

Obama states: Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont

McCain states: Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia

It's a little hard to classify, and a lot of those are debatable, but that's roughly how I would describe it based on current polls/candidate strengths etc

EJB341 (talk) 12:40, 24 May 2008 (UTC)

Arkansas and West-Virginia

With Clinton dropping out, Obama his poll numbers seem to be improving in Arkansas (nine points behind McCain) and West-Virginia (eight points behind McCain) but they're still not good enough to warrant inclusion as swing states. Everybody agree?--Peephole (talk) 14:16, 17 June 2008 (UTC)

Depends on if you are just considering this election or if a state is a swing state generally or not. If this was a "Swing State for the '08 election" article or something then I would definitely agree with you, but since it is just on swing states in general, and Arkansas is very Democratic (Democrat governor, both US senators, and 3 out of 4 US congressmen (as well as a majority of the state legislature, etc.) while voting Republican in the last 2 presidential elections seems to warrant inclusion. Not sure about WV, as I am not as familiar with that state. Cardsplayer4life (talk) 02:55, 1 July 2008 (UTC)

WV is also quite Democratic at the state level. But like with Arkansas, WV state Dems are more moderate and therefore may well vote GOP for president.

They should probably be left for now. Obama is targeting Virginia, Georgia and Carolinas, due to relatively strong numbers there and hope about black/youth turnout. If his red state campaign efforts go well, he may try and expand into Mississipi and Louisiana as well. And if he does well in southern states I just listed, he's probably going to bounce in WV and Arkansas too.

He's also targeting North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Alaska and Montana (in Montana he just pulled ahead in the polls for the first time), by the way, again due to strong numbers/new voter hopes. All the states I just addded may be worth considering adding to the list here. Also, McCain's hoping to target California, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Maine, Connecticut and New Jersey. The polling is less on his side right now on that (except possibly for Minnesota), but it's what their hoping.

EJB341 (talk) 14:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

I think North Dakota, Montana and Alaska all deserve to be on here more than West Virginia and Arkansas. No recent polling even shows Obama semi competitive in those two states.66.229.89.202 (talk) 02:33, 25 July 2008 (UTC)

Again, it is a general article on swing states, not specific to the 2008 race. Cardsplayer4life (talk) 04:37, 25 July 2008 (UTC)

Indiana

Indiana is a swing state? It seems pretty safe Republican to me, in fact I think its one of the most safe Republican states in the country. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Crd721 (talk • contribs) 10:46, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

• I would have to agree it has been republican although it appears to possibly be a swing state in this upcoming election. I have seen mixed reports. If wisconsin is a listed as a democratic state then Indiana has to be listed as Republican Frank Anchor ^{Talk to me} 03:37, 5 October 2008 (UTC)

Canidates or parties?

The lead here says that a swing state is where no one candidate has an overwhelming advantage. Shouldn't it be no one party? That is, California is a Blue state because it consistantly votes Democrat, not because they love Obama. They were a blue state before the nominee was ever picked. Hence the practice of choosing a running mate from a swing stateto get an advantage there (the Candidate then has an advantage that the party alone doe not). Or am I totally misundertanding the concept? Stevecudmore (talk) 15:44, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Map

I believe there are maps with yellow (swing), light blue (favor dems), dark blue (strongly favor dems), light red (favor repubs), dark red (strongly favor repubs) ... shouldn't there be a map like this? ElmerBront (talk) 05:04, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Revise

I don't believe North Carolina to be a swing state, somebody needs to fix the map??Nissanaltima (talk) 07:41, 24 September 2008 (UTC)

North Carolina is a swing state. Traditionally Republican, most recent polls put things tied or Obama marginally ahead. Map should probably be fixed though to include Wisconsin and Iowa, which are also swing states.Nwe (talk) 14:35, 28 September 2008 (UTC)

This really gets at the distinction between a battleground state and a swing state so blithely dismissed in the merger discussion that appears to have taken place a few years ago. While there is substantial overlap and a tendency to use both terms loosely, they are different. A swing state is one that has swung from party to party in a series of elections. A battleground state is one that at least one of the candidates believes can be plucked from the other party's win column in the previous election. Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Ohio are examples. North Carolina has been a reliable Republican state since Southern conservative Democrats became Southern Republicans. All the same, North Carolina is currently tied (and Obama might even be ahead). That is because Obama saw it as a state more likely to go for him than it was to go for Kerry and, with effort and luck, has made it competitive. -Rrius (talk) 03:09, 9 October 2008 (UTC)