2006 Victorian state election

2006 Victorian state election major party leaders
Liberal		Labor
File:Robert Doyle.jpg		File:Steve Bracks.jpg
Robert Doyle Opposition Leader		Steve Bracks Premier of Victoria
Age	52	Age	51
Parliament	14 years	Parliament	12 years
Leader since	2002	Leader since	1999
District	Malvern	District	Williamstown
Profession	Teacher	Profession	Teacher
Spouse	Separated	Spouse	Terry Bracks

The state election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria is scheduled for 25 November 2006. Just under 3 million Victorians will elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly will form the new government of Victoria.

The Australian Labor Party government of Premier Steve Bracks, first elected in 1999, is seeking a third consecutive term. It is pitted against the Liberal Party of Australia opposition of Robert Doyle and its traditional coalition partner, the National Party of Australia.

Minor parties are expected to make major showings at this election. According to some analysts, the Victorian Greens party could win the balance of power in the Legislative Council if it repeats its 2002 state election polling.^[1]

Key dates

Terms are now fixed at four years. Key dates for the election are:

• 7 Nov 2006 Close of rolls
• 10 Nov 2006 Close of nominations
• 25 Nov 2006 Election day

Electoral Districts and Regions

File:Vic inner regions.jpg

This map shows the lower house districts covering metropolitan Melbourne. The districts are grouped to form five upper house regions.

This map shows the lower house districts covering regional Victoria. The districts are each grouped to form three upper house regions.

Parliament of Victoria

Legislative Assembly

The Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is the chamber of government in the Parliament of Victoria. It consists of 88 members directly elected under a preferential voting system. The state is divided into 88 electorates called districts for voting purposes. Each district consists of approximately 38,000 eligible voters. After the 2002 state election, the ALP held 62 seats, the Liberals 17 and the Nationals 7. Two seats are held by independent members.

The table belows lists all 88 districts alphabetically, including the sitting members, their party affiliation and the swing required for members to lose their seats. Also included are the corresponding Legislative Council regions and former provinces.

Composition of the Legislative Assembly of the 55th Parliament of Victoria						2006 result	Legislative Council equivalent
District		Sitting Member	Political Party	Margin	Status	Retain/Gain	Old province	New region
	Albert Park	John Thwaites	Australian Labor Party	4.80%	Fairly Safe	-	Monash	Southern Metropolitan
	Altona	Lynne Kosky	Australian Labor Party	24.70%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne West	Western Metropolitan
	Ballarat East	Geoff Howard	Australian Labor Party	7.62%	Safe	-	Ballarat	Western Victoria
	Ballarat West	Karen Overington	Australian Labor Party	9.01%	Safe	-	Ballarat	Western Victoria
	Bass	Ken Smith	Liberal Party of Australia	0.65%	Marginal	-	Western Port	Eastern Victoria
	Bayswater	Peter Lockwood	Australian Labor Party	2.75%	Marginal	-	Silvan	Eastern Metropolitan
	Bellarine	Lisa Neville	Australian Labor Party	8.26%	Safe	-	Geelong	Western Victoria
	Benalla	Bill Sykes	National Party of Australia	1.98%	Marginal	-	Central Highlands	Northern Victoria
	Benambra	Tony Plowman	Liberal Party of Australia	4.04%	Fairly Safe	-	North Eastern	Northern Victoria
	Bendigo East	Jacinta Allan	Australian Labor Party	12.97%	Safe	-	North Western	Northern Victoria
	Bendigo West	Bob Cameron	Australian Labor Party	15.95%	Safe	-	North Western	Northern Victoria
	Bentleigh	Rob Hudson	Australian Labor Party	4.75%	Fairly Safe	-	Higinbotham	Eastern Metropolitan
	Box Hill	Robert Clark	Liberal Party of Australia	1.10%	Marginal	-	East Yarra	Eastern Metropolitan
	Brighton	Louise Asher	Liberal Party of Australia	7.42%	Safe	-	Higinbotham	Southern Metropolitan
	Broadmeadows	John Brumby	Australian Labor Party	30.79%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne North	Northern Metropolitan
	Brunswick	Carlo Carli	Australian Labor Party	9.30%	Safe	-	Melbourne	Northern Metropolitan
	Bulleen	Nicholas Kotsiras	Liberal Party of Australia	2.65%	Marginal	-	Templestowe	Eastern Metropolitan
	Bundoora	Sheryl Garbutt	Australian Labor Party	17.58%	Safe	-	Jika Jika	Northern Metropolitan
	Burwood	Bob Stensholt	Australian Labor Party	5.10%	Fairly Safe	-	East Yarra	Southern Metropolitan
	Carrum	Jenny Lindell	Australian Labor Party	12.17%	Safe	-	Chelsea	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Caulfield	Helen Shardey	Liberal Party of Australia	2.26%	Marginal	-	Monash	Southern Metropolitan
	Clayton	Hong Lim	Australian Labor Party	23.85%	Very Safe	-	Waverly	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Cranbourne	Jude Perera	Australian Labor Party	10.80%	Safe	-	Chelsea	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Dandenong	John Pandazopoulos	Australian Labor Party	20.32%	Very Safe	-	Eumemmerring	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Derrimut	Telmo Languiller	Australian Labor Party	27.31%	Very Safe	-	Doutta Galla	Western Metropolitan
	Doncaster	Victor Perton	Liberal Party of Australia	0.78%	Marginal	-	Templestowe	Eastern Metropolitan
	Eltham	Steve Herbert	Australian Labor Party	4.80%	Fairly Safe	-	Templestowe	Eastern Metropolitan
	Evelyn	Heather McTaggart	Australian Labor Party	0.34%	Very Marginal	-	Central Highlands	Eastern Victoria
	Ferntree Gully	Anne Eckstein	Australian Labor Party	2.29%	Marginal	-	Koonung	Eastern Metropolitan
	Footscray	Bruce Mildenhall	Australian Labor Party	24.91%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne West	Western Metropolitan
	Forest Hill	Kirstie Marshall	Australian Labor Party	5.79%	Fairly Safe	-	Koonung	Eastern Metropolitan
	Frankston	Alistair Harkness	Australian Labor Party	5.78%	Fairly Safe	-	Chelsea	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Geelong	Ian Trezise	Australian Labor Party	8.11%	Safe	-	Geelong	Western Victoria
	Gembrook	Tammy Lobato	Australian Labor Party	1.59%	Marginal	-	Eumemmerring	Eastern Victoria
	Gippsland East	Craig Ingram	Independent	11.75%	Safe	-	Gippsland	Eastern Victoria
	Gippsland South	Peter Ryan	National Party of Australia	10.86%	Safe	-	Gippsland	Eastern Victoria
	Hastings	Rosy Buchanan	Australian Labor Party	0.86%	Marginal	-	Western Port	Eastern Victoria
	Hawthorn	Ted Baillieu	Liberal Party of Australia	5.89%	Fairly Safe	-	East Yarra	Southern Metropolitan
	Ivanhoe	Craig Langdon	Australian Labor Party	12.50%	Safe	-	Templestowe	Northern Metropolitan
	Keilor	George Seitz	Australian Labor Party	18.05%	Safe	-	Doutta Galla	Western Metropolitan
	Kew	Andrew McIntosh	Liberal Party of Australia	5.99%	Fairly Safe	-	East Yarra	Southern Metropolitan
	Kilsyth	Dympna Beard	Australian Labor Party	2.10%	Marginal	-	Silvan	Eastern Metropolitan
	Kororoit	André Haermeyer	Australian Labor Party	27.06%	Very Safe	-	Doutta Galla	Western Metropolitan
	Lara	Peter Loney	Australian Labor Party	22.35%	Very Safe	-	Geelong	Western Victoria
	Lowan	Hugh Delahunty	National Party of Australia	17.09%	Safe	-	Western	Western Victoria
	Lyndhurst	Tim Holding	Australian Labor Party	25.09%	Very Safe	-	Chelsea	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Macedon	Joanne Duncan	Australian Labor Party	9.26%	Safe	-	Ballarat	Northern Victoria
	Malvern	Robert Doyle	Liberal Party of Australia	10.19%	Safe	-	Monash	Southern Metropolitan
	Melbourne	Bronwyn Pike	Australian Labor Party	1.93%	Marginal	-	Melbourne	Northern Metropolitan
	Melton	Don Nardella	Australian Labor Party	15.33%	Safe	-	Ballarat	Western Victoria
	Mildura	Russell Savage	Independent	18.46%	Safe	-	North Western	Northern Victoria
	Mill Park	Lily D'Ambrosio	Australian Labor Party	26.79%	Safe	-	Jika Jika	Northern Metropolitan
	Mitcham	Tony Robinson	Australian Labor Party	7.69%	Fairly Safe	-	Koonung	Eastern Metropolitan
	Monbulk	James Merlino	Australian Labor Party	8.27%	Safe	-	Silvan	Eastern Victoria
	Mordialloc	Janice Munt	Australian Labor Party	4.54%	Fairly Safe	-	Higinbotham	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Mornington	Robin Cooper	Liberal Party of Australia	1.83%	Marginal	-	Western Port	Eastern Victoria
	Morwell	Brendan Jenkins	Australian Labor Party	4.87%	Fairly Safe		Gippsland	Eastern Victoria
	Mount Waverley	Maxine Morand	Australian Labor Party	2.30%	Marginal	-	Waverley	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Mulgrave	Daniel Andrews	Australian Labor Party	16.23%	Safe	-	Waverley	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Murray Valley	Ken Jasper	National Party of Australia	13.90%	Safe	-	North Eastern	Northern Victoria
	Narracan	Ian Maxfield	Australian Labor Party	6.83%	Fairly Safe	-	Gippsland	Eastern Victoria
	Narre Warren North	Luke Donnellan	Australian Labor Party	9.71%	Safe	-	Eumemmerring	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Narre Warren South	Dale Wilson	Australian Labor Party	12.61%	Safe	-	Eumemmerring	South Eastern Metropolitan
	Nepean	Martin Dixon	Liberal Party of Australia	0.18%	Very Marginal	-	Western Port	Eastern Victoria
	Niddrie	Rob Hulls	Australian Labor Party	16.61%	Safe	-	Doutta Galla	Western Metropolitan
	Northcote	Mary Delahunty	Australian Labor Party	28.33%	Very Safe	-	Jika Jika	Northern Metropolitan
	Oakleigh	Ann Barker	Australian Labor Party	15.22%	Safe	-	Waverley	Southern Metropolitan
	Pascoe Vale	Christine Campbell	Australian Labor Party	24.21%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne North	Western Metropolitan
	Polwarth	Terry Mulder	Liberal Party of Australia	9.54%	Safe	-	Western	Western Victoria
	Prahan	Tony Lupton	Australian Labor Party	4.43%	Fairly Safe	-	Monash	Southern Metropolitan
	Preston	Michael Leighton	Australian Labor Party	25.76%	Very Safe	-	Jika Jika	Northern Metropolitan
	Richmond	Richard Wynne	Australian Labor Party	3.10%	Marginal	-	Melbourne	Northern Metropolitan
	Ripon	Joe Helper	Australian Labor Party	7.44%	Safe	-	Western	Western Victoria
	Rodney	Noel Maughan	National Party of Australia	9.96%	Safe	-	North Eastern	Northern Victoria
	Sandringham	Murray Thompson	Liberal Party of Australia	3.04%	Marginal	-	Higinbotham	Southern Metropolitan
	Scoresby	Kim Wells	Liberal Party of Australia	3.33%	Marginal	-	Koonung	Eastern Metropolitan
	Seymour	Ben Hardman	Australian Labor Party	9.50%	Safe	-	Central Highlands	Northern Metropolitan
	Shepparton	Elizabeth Powell	National Party of Australia	4.28%	Marginal	-	North Eastern	Northern Victoria
	South Barwon	Michael Crutchfield	Australian Labor Party	5.02%	Fairly Safe	-	Geelong	Western Victoria
	South-West Coast	Denis Napthine	Liberal Party of Australia	0.75%	Very Marginal	-	Western	Western Victoria
	Swan Hill	Peter Walsh	National Party of Australia	14.16%	Safe	-	North Western	Northern Victoria
	Tarneit	Mary Gillett	Australian Labor Party	17.41%	Safe	-	Melbourne West	Western Metropolitan
	Thomastown	Peter Batchelor	Australian Labor Party	31.75%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne North	Northern Metropolitan
	Warrandyte	Phil Honeywood	Liberal Party of Australia	6.36%	Fairly Safe	-	Silvan	Eastern Metropolitan
	Williamstown	Steve Bracks	Australian Labor Party	25.72%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne West	Western Metropolitan
	Yan Yean	Danielle Green	Australian Labor Party	9.54%	Safe	-	Central Highlands	Northern Metropolitan
	Yuroke	Liz Beattie	Australian Labor Party	22.89%	Very Safe	-	Melbourne North	Western Metropolitan
Source: Victorian Electoral Commission[2]

Key Seats

Seats requiring less than 4% swing can be regarded as marginal. These seats, in ascending order, are:

• Nepean (0.17)
• Evelyn (0.33)
• Bass (0.64)
• South-West Coast (0.74)
• Doncaster (0.77). Victor Perton, the current Liberal member is retiring.
• Hastings (0.85)
• Box Hill (1.09)
• Gembrook (1.58)
• Mornington (1.82)
• Melbourne (1.92)
• Benalla (1.97)
• Kilsyth (2.09)
• Caulfield (2.25)
• Ferntree Gully (2.28)
• Mount Waverley (2.29)
• Bulleen (2.64)
• Bayswater (2.74)
• Sandringham (3.03)
• Richmond (3.09)
• Scoresby (3.32)

The seats for Scoresby, Ferntree Gully, Bayswater and Kilsyth are close to the Eastlink Tollway which is currently under construction. The Bracks government introduced tolls to this new road, breaking a previous election promise. After initially stating that a Coalition government would remove these tolls, Robert Doyle has subsequently proposed a package of half-tolls for the first five years of the tollway's operation^[3].

Opinion Polls

A Morgan Poll on 4 March 2006 found that ALP support rose 1.5% from January to 60.5%. This translated to a significant lead of 21% over the L-NP (39.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. With primary support for the Liberal Party was declining, if a Victorian State Election had been held in February, the ALP would have won easily. Primary support for the Greens was 7.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), National Party 2.5% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5% (up 1%)^[4].

Parties

Australian Labor Party - Victorian Branch

Tim Pallas will enter Parliament in November. Pallas, Premier Steve Bracks' chief of staff, defeated Labor parliamentary secretary Mary Gillett for Labor preselection for the safe seat of Tarneit.

Liberal-National Coalition

Liberal leader Robert Doyle stated he would be willing to have coalition talks with the Nationals after the election. The two conservative parties have acknowledged they would try to form a coalition if that was necessary to defeat Labor.

But tensions have emerged between the coalition partners over issues such as the Liberal policy of halving tolls on the EastLink freeway. Nationals leader Peter Ryan has stated that his party did not back the policy, because it would mean public money was spent on motorists in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, at the expense of services for country Victorians^[5].

Liberal Party of Australia - Victorian Branch

During March 2006, Phil Honeywood, the Deputy Opposition Leader, then Victor Perton both announced they would not contest the next election. This contributed to ongoing speculation about Robert Doyle's leadership, during which Ted Baillieu emerged as a possible challenger. Tensions between the Liberal factions were largely resolved with the appointment of Louise Asher as deputy opposition leader^[6], with Doyle retaining the leadership unchallenged.

The Australian Greens - Victoria

Greg Barber, former City of Yarra mayor, won Greens preselection to contest contest a seat in the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, where the Greens are considered most to likely win their first seat in the Victorian Parliament.

Sue Pennicuik, a co-covener of the state party, was preselected for the Southern Metropolitan region.

Bill Pemberton and Marcus Ward were preselected for the Eastern and Western Metropolitan regions respectively^[7].

Based on the Greens' vote at the 2002 election the party would have picked up a seat in both the Northern and Southern Metropolitan regions. Political experts believe that the Greens may hold the balance of power after the next state election.

Other Parties and Groups

Other parties registered in Victoria that may field candidates include:

• Citizens Electoral Council (Victorian Division)
• Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
• Socialist Alliance (Victoria)
• Country Alliance

People Power, a group formed in 2000 by Vern Hughes and Stephen Mayne, has announced an intention to field a team of candidates for both lower and upper house seats^[8]. This group is not currently registered as a political party but has announced intentions to run candidates for both the upper and lower houses.

Family First announced Cameron Eastman as their lead candidate and spokesperson for the election. Eastman works in a civilian capacity for the Victoria Police and will contest the upper house region of Eastern Victoria. Eastman stated that the party had no hidden agendas, despite being labelled an arm of the Christian Right movement. "There's no formal structural approach to churches in any way," he said^[9]. He also stated that Family First's Victorian campaign would include a strong anti-gambling stance and would raise concerns about hospital waiting lists and the sale of public assets.

The Campaign

By April 2006, Labor still has not formally launched their campaign to retain office. However, the Bracks government has been criticised for spending about $9 million on a taxpayer-funded pre-election television advertising blitz promoting its record in the politically sensitive areas of hospitals, police, schools, major projects, the rural economy and programs such as "Our Water Our Future". Robert Doyle stated that "this is using our money to promote Steve Bracks and the Labor Party. If the ALP want to promote themselves, let them spend their own money — not yours and mine". Premier Steve Bracks defended the advertisements, stating "the Government has regularly run ads to highlight the work of and recruit new teachers, police and nurses as well as encourage business investment in Victoria"^[10].

The Nationals then the Liberals launch their campaigns seperately

The state leader of the Nationals, Peter Ryan, used his opening address to the Nationals' annual conference held on 7 April 2006 at the All Seasons "quality resort" in Bendigo to "officially" launch his party's campaign.^[11] Prior to the launch, Ryan stated that the National party will support the introduction of minimum prison sentences for serious crimes to ensure that sentences more accurately reflect community expectations^[12]. At the launch, Ryan stressed the importance of the family unit and traditional values, and criticised Melbourne Labor for its lack of vision and the decision to pre-select city-based candidates to contest Upper House seats in country areas^[13].

Opposition Leader Robert Doyle launched the Liberals' campaign on Sunday 9 April at the Hawthorn campus of Melbourne University Private. Doyle unveiled a policy to reintroduce a 10 per cent speed zone tolerance, replacing the 3 km/h tolerance enforced by Labor, to make speed cameras more visible and to abolish bonus payments to speed camera operators who book large numbers of drivers. Acting premier John Thwaites said the policy was dangerous, stating that "We all know that speeding causes deaths, and yet the Opposition is now giving a green light for people to speed".^[14]

People Power pop up

Peter Allan, a People Power candidate for the upper house, stated on 18 April 2006 that they will be running an anti-poker machine platform under the umbrella of their party^[15]. They are apparently hoping to emulate the success of "no-pokies" candidates Nick Xenophon and Anne Bressington at the recent South Australian election.

The Government announces water saving strategies, but its environmental credentials are criticised

Victorian Environment Minister John Thwaites unveiled the Government's draft water strategy on 20 April 2006. The strategy aims to take some pressure off over-stressed rivers through tougher water-saving targets and fines for individuals. With demand in Melbourne and elsewhere expected to outstrip supply within 15 years, water is emerging prominant environmental issue of the campaign. Opposition spokesman David Davis said the Government's promise to flush an extra 20 billion litres into the Yarra was "a very small drop in the river", and called for more action to clean up the polluted river^[16].

The Wilderness Society and the Australian Conservation Foundation have also criticised the Bracks Government's continued support for logging of water catchments as a contributing factor to the looming water shortage^[17]. Clearfell logging and woodchipping of Victorian forests has also been linked to the destruction of critical habitat for threatened species such as Leadbeater's possum, Victoria’s endangered faunal emblem^[18].

The Bracks Government raised the ire of environment groups in September 2005 with its decision to to expand Hazelwood power station's operations to at least 2031. This decision was labelled "as an environmental tragedy that will be fought through legal action" due to Hazelwood being Australia’s worst climate change polluting power station. Marcus Godhino from Environment Victoria stated “this is a gutless, tragic decision by Steve Bracks. Hazelwood was the Premier’s number one environmental test. He has now failed.” Greenpeace and the Australian Conservation Foundation also strongly criticised the decision^[19].

Some directions for Labor's campaign are revealed

The Victorian ALP's draft policy platform "Rising to the Challenges" partly revealed the direction a third-term re-elected Bracks Labor Government would take. The platform includes as priorities encouraging the greater use of public transport, replacing hundreds of old school buildings and legalising abortion. Labor would also promise public interest statements on all future public-private partnerships and include a value-for-money comparison with full public funding. The door is left open to public-private partnerships to rebuild old schools. It would consider payroll tax exemptions as an incentive to employers to offer 14 weeks paid maternity leave and push for two weeks paternity leave. Nuclear energy would be banned, and Labor would accelerate the development of renewable energy technologies. The platform also allows room for more new toll roads but rules out tolls on existing roads. The platform commits Labor to maintaining a minimum budget surplus of $100 million and to closely manage "recurrent expenditure".

In an apparent shift of focus from building new freeways and tollways, the Government's long-awaited transport and liveability statement concentrating on outer suburbs is referenced and "the [pressing] need for a quantum leap in funding for public transport" is mentioned. Under health, the platform commits the Labor Party to reducing waiting times for emergency treatment, elective surgery and dental care. The draft platform will be debated by the party's state conference in May, after which the Government would then "develop the specific election commitments it will put to Victorian voters at the historic first fixed-term election" on November 25, 2006, Mr Bracks wrote^[20].

References

1. ^ "Analysis: The Draft Victorian Legislative Council Boundaries, Antony Green, ABC Elections Victoria, 2006
2. ^ "State Election 2002 Results, VEC
3. ^ "Australia's modern political dilemma", The Age, 18 September 2005
4. ^ "L-NP Continues To Lose Ground To ALP In Victoria", Roy Morgan Research, 4 March 2006
5. ^ "Liberals, Nationals to consider coalition", The Age, 10 April 2006
6. ^ "A rival-turned-ally rescues Doyle's leadership", The Age, 31 March 2006
7. ^ "Ex-Yarra mayor in Greens poll bid", The Age, 26 December 2005
8. ^ "People Power - Victorian State Election
9. ^ "Ex-naval officer hopes for Family First victory, The Age, 18 April 2006
10. ^ "Bracks attacked over $9m ad campaign, The Age, 22 November 2005
11. ^ "It's only 33 weeks for Doyle, The Age, 7 April 2006
12. ^ "Nationals to support minimum sentencing, National Victoria Media Release, 6 April 2006
13. ^ "Traditional values feature at campaign launch, National Victoria Media Release, 7 April 2006
14. ^ "Doyle slams speed cam 'slug'", The Age, 10 April 2006
15. ^ "Anti-pokies candidates set sights on November poll, The Age, 19 April 2006
16. ^ "Water plan won't save rivers from over-use, The Age, 21 April 2006
17. ^ "Central Highlands Information, Water Catchments in the Central Highlands, The Wilderness Society
18. ^ "Premier Bracks allows destruction of old growth trees and endangered wildlife on Melbourne’s fringe, The Wilderness Society and Australian Conservation Foundation Media Release, 6 February 2006
19. ^ "Steve Bracks condemns Victoria to climate change, Environment Victoria, Media Release, 6 September 2005
20. ^ "ALP spells out plans for third term, The Age, 23 April 2006