Talk:Earthquake prediction

/Archive 1 contains discussions pertinent to the old version (last revised 20 June 2012) prior to restructuring.

Re 195.134.89.153's VAN edits

I have Reverted your Bold edits (see WP:BRD) in the VAN section because of problems of neutrality, WP:weight, and possibly a conflict of interest. I note that these edits follow your recent editing VAN method (to which some of the following comments are also applicable).

Your recent edit of 17 May removed significant qualifications of the VAN claims. E.g., you changed "they claimed that by measuring geoelectric voltages ..." to "measure[d] geoelectric voltages" - which is not same thing: you have changed a statement on which all can agree ("they claimed to have measured") to a statement of fact ("they actually measured"), which is disputed by reliable and authoritative sources.

You have also removed the information that their claim of being "able to predict earthquakes greater than magnitudue 5 ..." is not the original claim, that the original claim was modified ex post facto.

You also removed the text that "the VAN group generated intense public criticism in the 1980s by issuing telegram warnings, a large number of which were false alarms.}" This is supported by a reliable source, and indeed, that VAN generated intense criticism - professional as well as public - is likely their most notable aspect. Leaving that out is a serious omission. Likewise for your removal of "None of the earthquakes which VAN claimed were preceded by SES generated SES themselves ...."

The material you have added (e.g.: "This analysis however was shown by VAN group to be invalid..."; "This criticism was rebutted by the VAN group..."; "All these points have been also rebutted by the VAN group") amounts to an apologetics of VAN, and advocacy on their behalf.

In the predictions section you have replaced critical comments with what amounts to attempted refutations of such criticism. E.g., replacing ""VAN’s ‘predictions’ never specify the windows..." with "These claims have been rebutted by VAN group point by point...." And again, you weakened the text attributed to Geller, then replaced the specific criticism of Jackson, Rhoades & Evison, Kagan & Jackson, Geller, and Mulargia & Gasperini with: "Other independent evaluations led to the conclusion that the results "decisively rule out the necessity of any statistical discussion in evaluating the validity of the precursory nature of SES"...." (Any necessity for statistical discussion is ruled out by ... Uyeda??? Was that a joke?)

Your edits have consistently removed or muted criticism of the VAN method and results, promoted their point of view, and downplayed the controversy regarding them. This was not done on the basis of independent reliable sources; it is the view of Varotsos and Lazaridou themselves. Your edits don't just violate Wikipedia's fundamental WP:NPOV policy of that "All encyclopedic content on Wikipedia must be written from a neutral point of view...." (emphasis in the original), they are blatant partisanship. This is not permitted.

So I am not surprised to see that your IP address (see http://whatismyipaddress.com/ip/195.134.89.153) is assigned to the University of Athens. It seems there is a strong possibility that you are connected with VAN, and therefore in violation of the Wikipedia guidelines regarding conflict of interest and self-promotion. This is not acceptable. Please desist. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 06:17, 18 May 2016 (UTC)

IP user 77.69.86.91 – from Athens, and likely the same as 195.134.89.153, above – has added 'citation needed' tags to the "Electromagnetic variations" on material pertaining to VAN. Fair enough. Sometime this weekend I'll see about digging out those sources and supplying more detailed citation.

The same user has also disputed the neutrality of the "1987–1995: Greece (VAN)" predictions section, on the basis of "published answers were removed". This user has not followed up with an explanatory statement here, but presumably this refers to his/her recent edit, which I removed, for the reasons described above. Sir or madam, please note: mere publication does not justify inclusion of material. Wikipedia has certain principles and guidelines for inclusion (or exclusion) of material, and how material is presented. Your edit was reverted for cause. Specifically, for violation of neutrality, balance, and apparent self-promotion/conflict of interest. I will note again that your edit did not simply add material, it also removed material (which I restored). Note also that Wikipedia is not a forum or debate: you do not get "equal time" to make point-by-point answers.

And note that per Template:POV#When_to_remove this tag can be removed if "[it] is not clear what the neutrality issue is, and no satisfactory explanation has been given", or "[i]n the absence of any discussion, or if the discussion has become dormant." ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:33, 20 May 2016 (UTC)

This hype abt VAN is just BS. No independent researcher managed to reproduce VAN. It seems that one must have a connection with the former VAN group and use their magic talisman in order to predict EQs using electrical signals. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 141.237.136.227 (talk) 02:07, 23 May 2016 (UTC)

I am inclined to agree with your comments re VAN generally (based on study of the literature), but please note that the particular issue here is whether these edits are non-neutral (e.g., biased) and give more weight to certain views than warranted. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:11, 23 May 2016 (UTC)

Let's keep our opinion out of this and just follow scientific publications.--77.69.86.91 (talk) 23:48, 23 May 2016 (UTC)