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Meteorological history of Cyclone Freddy

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Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy
Very intense tropical cyclone (SWIO scale)
Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Track of Cyclone Freddy, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale
Formed4 February 2023
DissipatedCurrently active
Duration5 weeks and 3 days
Highest winds10-minute sustained: 220 km/h (140 mph)
1-minute sustained: 270 km/h (165 mph)
Lowest pressure931 hPa (mbar); 27.49 inHg
Areas affected
Part of the 2022–23 Australian region and South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons

Cyclone Freddy is the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, beating the previous record of Hurricane John in 1994.[1] It also has the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any tropical cyclone on record worldwide, surpassing Hurricane Ioke in 2006.[1] Additionally, Freddy is the only known tropical cyclone to achieve seven separate rapid intensification cycles.[2] While in the Australian region cyclone basin, the storm quickly intensified and became a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone, before it moved into the South-West Indian Ocean basin. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Freddy's peak strength, equivalent to Category 5 strength on the Saffir–Simpson scale. During 19 February, Météo-France (MFR) upgraded it to a very intense tropical cyclone. Freddy made its first landfall near Mananjary, Madagascar.

Freddy rapidly weakened overland but re-strengthened in the Mozambique Channel. Soon afterward, Freddy made its second landfall just south of Vilankulos, Mozambique. On 2 March, the remnant low of Freddy began to acquire tropical characteristics after re-emerging into the channel. Soon after, Freddy intensified, becoming a tropical cyclone. Then, Freddy made its third landfall in Quelimane, Zambezia Province, Mozambique.

Origins

Cyclone Freddy starting to intensify off the coast of Western Australia on 7 February

During 30 January, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) began monitoring a developing weak tropical low embedded within a monsoon trough in Timor Sea.[3] The disturbance was assigned the official identifier code 13U.[4] Environmental conditions were assessed as being marginally conducive for tropical cyclogenesis.[5] By 4 February, the BoM reported that the disturbance had developed approximately 770 km (480 mi) north-northwest of Broome in Western Australia.[6][7] During 6 February, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on the system.[8] By 09:00 UTC, the JTWC initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 11S.[9] The BoM reported that the tropical low had developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and named it Freddy.[10][11]

Later that next day, feeder bands were covering its very broad and central dense overcast (CDO), prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone.[12] The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded Freddy into a Category 2 tropical cyclone.[13] Freddy attained Category 3 cyclone.[14] Freddy began showing an eye feature seen in microwave imaging, with Freddy later becoming a Category 2-equivalent cyclone.[15] Freddy weakened slightly due to CDO and a persistent area of cold cloud tops.[16] Weakening occurred as the JTWC assessed that Freddy's winds bottomed out at 150 km/h (90 mph).[17] Freddy weakened back into a tropical storm, and the BoM estimated winds of 100 km/h (65 mph), the weakening resulting from easterly wind shear.[18][19]

Crossover, rapid deepening, and first landfall

Cyclone Freddy as seen from the International Space Station on 20 February

Continuing to rapidly intensify, Freddy intensified, becoming a Category 3-equivalent cyclone around 15:00 UTC on 11 February.[20] Freddy had further intensified to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone due to the presence of a well-defined eye surrounded by deep convection.[21] Freddy intensified into a Category 4-equivalent cyclone with a symmetric CDO.[22] According to the JTWC, Freddy gradually became disorganized, with its eye no longer well-defined, and Freddy fell to 185 km/h (115 mph) winds.[23] The BoM also reported that Freddy's winds weakened to 155 km/h (100 mph) of winds.[24] Despite easterly vertical wind shear, Freddy maintained a symmetric convective core.[25] The cyclone's ragged and cloud filled eye appeared on satellite imagery.[26] At 12:00 UTC on 14 February, Freddy crossed 90° E into the South-West Indian Ocean basin, and was immediately classified as a tropical cyclone by Météo-France (MFR)[27][28] The MFR upgraded the system to an intense tropical cyclone.[29]

Freddy exhibited highly symmetrical and annular characteristics around 03:00 UTC on 15 February.[30] Later the next day, the JTWC also assessed Freddy as having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 270 km/h (165 mph), making the storm a Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone,[31][32] as the cyclone sustained a symmetric ring around deep convection.[33] During 18 February, Freddy began to rapidly deteriorate as a sudden spike in mid-level shear began impacting the storm.[34] As a result, the cyclone briefly weakened to 1-minute sustained winds of 205 km/h (125 mph) before restrengthening once again.[35] Later that next day, Freddy was upgraded to a very intense tropical cyclone.[36] Shortly afterward, Freddy's cloud pattern slightly deteriorated, causing the cyclone to weaken to an intense tropical cyclone by 00:00 UTC on 20 February.[37] Freddy passed north of Mauritius, Réunion[38] and weakened to a tropical cyclone on 21 February.[39] At about 7 p.m. local time that day, the cyclone made its first landfall near Mananjary, Madagascar.[40] After landfall, Freddy was re-classified as an overland depression, with sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph).[41] The JTWC also reported that Freddy substantially weakened as it traversed the mountainous terrain of Madagascar, and was downgraded to 130 km/h (80 mph).[42]

Re-strengthening, second landfall, and weakening

Severe Tropical Storm Freddy nearing Mozambique on 24 February

During 22 February, Freddy significantly improved in organization as it moved southwestward across the Mozambique Channel.[43] Later that day, Freddy re-strengthened into a zone of disturbed weather.[43][44] Freddy had re-developed under the deep convection in the northern semicircle of the circulation.[45] Freddy re-strengthened into a moderate tropical storm after the convection began to rapidly increase.[46] The system passed to the north of Europa Island.[47] Freddy re-strengthened further, marking its intensification into a severe tropical storm.[48] Freddy continued to organize with convective bands wrapping into the center.[49]

Six hours later, cloud pattern deteriorated, as it approaching the coast of Mozambique.[50] By 12:00 UTC on 24 February, the MFR reported that Freddy had made second landfall in Mozambique (and first landfall overall) south of Vilankulos, Mozambique with 10-sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph).[51] Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings on the system.[52] Freddy rapidly weakened as it moved westward and further inland, weakening to an overland depression by 18:00 UTC that day.[53] The MFR determined that Freddy convective activity was located in the southeast semicircle.[54] Even though the MFR stopped issuing advisories on 25 February, they were still monitoring and predicted that the remnant low would likely re-develop into a tropical system.[55][56]

Re-development and third landfall

Cyclone Freddy off the coast of Madagascar on 7 March

During 1 March, Freddy re-emerged into the Mozambique Channel, the JTWC resumed monitoring and stated the system had the potential to re-develop.[57] Environmental conditions were assessed as being marginally conducive for tropical cyclogenesis, with low vertical wind shear and moderate equatorial outflow.[57] During 2 March, Freddy observed an increase in deep convection in the eastern semicircle, prompting MFR to classify the storm as a tropical disturbance again.[58] Microwave imagery revealed that Freddy convection was gradually wrapping around the southern periphery of the circulation.[59] Later that next day, Freddy was downgraded to zone of disturbed weather status by the MFR.[60] Multispectral animated satellite imagery partially revealed an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection persisting along the eastern periphery of the LLCC.[61] As a result, the JTWC re-issued a TCFA by 21:00 UTC that day.[61] Freddy showed signs of intensification as it approached the system's estimated center, the MFR upgraded the system to a tropical depression.[62] Freddy strengthened into a moderate tropical storm as the ASCAT-C pass featured below gale-force winds on its southern quadrant.[63] Six hours later, Freddy gained tropical storm strength yet again with under the influence of a persistent area of convection.[64] The convection continued to decrease, and Freddy was better organized through the LLCC.[65] Freddy gradually improved its convection with improvements in further consolidation.[66]

Cyclone Freddy nearly stationary while off the coast of Mozambique on 11 March.

By 18:00 UTC on 5 March, Freddy strengthened to severe tropical storm as it accelerated eastward toward the coast of Madagascar.[67] The convection wrapped around the system's LLCC and the system gradually consolidated.[68] Freddy began to show an ill-defined eye that was visible on satellite imagery.[69] During 7 March, Freddy had become a tropical cyclone status with sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph), while the JTWC estimated that its 1-minute sustained winds reached 155 km/h (100 mph).[70][71] Six hours later, Freddy continued to interact with a mid-troposphere shear.[72] Freddy fell to severe tropical storm status later that next day.[73] The cyclone then rapidly weakened as a result of the presence of higher wind shear as well as dry air intrusion.[74] Later, the storm weakened to 110 km/h (70 mph).[74] Despite the shear, convection intensified near the center as banding features improved.[75][76] The Dvorak analysis indicated that Freddy strengthened into 120 km/h (75 mph).[77] The cyclone had a well-defined eye within the storm's compact and symmetrical CDO.[78][79] During 11 March, Freddy made its third landfall (and second landfall overall) on Quelimane, Zambezia Province, Mozambique with sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph).[80][81]

The JTWC subsequently issued a final warning on the system three hours later.[82] As the cyclone's eye disappeared from satellite imagery, Freddy's weakened into a severe tropical storm.[83] Six hours later, Freddy's cloud pattern deteriorated, with the storm weakening back into a moderate tropical storm.[84] Freddy weakened to an overland depression with sustained winds of around 55 km/h (35 mph).[85] At 12:00 UTC on 13 March, the MFR issued its last advisory on the storm.[86]

Records

Cyclone Freddy holds the record for the longest-lasting tropical cyclone worldwide in recorded history.[2][1] Freddy also holds the record for the all-time highest accumulated cyclone energy of a tropical cyclone worldwide, with an ACE of 87.01, breaking the former record of 85.26, set by Hurricane Ioke in 2006.[1] Additionally, Freddy was the first tropical cyclone to undergo seven separate rounds of rapid intensification.[1] Prior to Freddy, no storm in the Southern hemisphere had rapidly intensified more than three times.[2][87]

In the Northern Hemisphere, only three storms appear to have experienced four bouts of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Norman in 2018, Hurricane Emily in 2005, and Hurricane John in 1994.[2][88] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will conduct a formal investigation to determine whether Freddy tied or surpassed John's record.[89][90] Freddy was one of only four systems—the others being cyclones Litanne in 1994 and Leon–Eline and Hudah in 2000—to travel the entirety of the southern Indian Ocean.[91]

See also

References

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  2. ^ a b c d Cappucci, Matthew (7 March 2023). "Deadly cyclone Freddy has become Earth's longest-lived tropical storm". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 7 March 2023. Retrieved 7 March 2023.
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