2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

The 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus marks the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election, even though it is not the first primary held. It is a process in which members of the Democratic political party will gather to make policy decisions and choose their candidates for the presidential election. Campaigning began as early as two years before the event, when various candidates began to make personal appearances. The caucuses will begin on the evening of Thursday, January 3, 2008.

Process

The caucuses will follow the regular procedures of the Democratic Party process. Any voter who is a registered Democrat and a resident of Iowa may participate in the event. It is estimated that 60% of the caucus goers will be attending the caucuses for the first time. All of the caucus goers will meet in a public building or school in their precinct and divide themselves into groups; each group will represent a candidate. If a candidate receives less than 15% of the caucus goers' votes, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate have 30 minutes to join a viable candidate's group, join another non-viable candidate's group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter. The results of these caucuses will provide a good measurement of Iowa's national delegation to the Democratic convention.

Polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 § Iowa

The Des Moines Register reported that during a poll of 800 likely Democratic caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007, the candidates had the following results:

• Joe Biden - 4%
• Hillary Clinton - 25%
• Christopher Dodd - 2%
• John Edwards - 24%
• Mike Gravel - 0%
• Dennis Kucinich - 1%
• Barack Obama - 32%
• Bill Richardson - 6%
• Not sure/Uncommitted - 6%

The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5%.

Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls has risen from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November of 2007. This was in part as result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents." Hillary Clinton remained at a constant 25%, while John Edwards was almost unchanged when his ratings increased to 24% from 23% in November. Approximately one-third of likely caucus goers, however, said that they could be persuaded to choose a different candidate before the caucus.

The December results of the Des Moines Register's poll also showed a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead—Clinton, Edwards, and Obama—and the rest of the Democratic candidates. No other Democrat received more than 6% support of caucus goers.

30% of the sample population from the Des Moines Register's poll said that a candidate's ability to bring about change in the United States is the most important. 27% of the population said that a candidate who would be most successful in unifying the country would take priority in their votes. Most caucus goers said that Obama was strong in both of these areas, which is an indication of his appeal in Iowa. Having the experience and competence to lead was considered the most important aspect of a candidate by 18% of the sample population. Hillary Clinton was rated best on this trait. Only 6% of the sample population said that being best able to win the general election was the top priority. Hillary Clinton, again, was rated best on this trait.

External links

• Better World Links on the Iowa Caucus
• Polling results from Real Clear Politics
• Polling data from Pollster.com