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2014–15 Australian region cyclone season

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2014–15 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed3 December 2014
Last system dissipatedSeason currently active
Strongest storm
NameKate
 • Maximum winds165 km/h (105 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure952 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Tropical lows8
Tropical cyclones2
Severe tropical cyclones1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Australian region tropical cyclone seasons
2012–13, 2013–14, 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17

The 2014–15 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially runs from November 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that are operated in this region. Three of the five centres are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France also monitored the basin during the season.

Seasonal forecasts

Tropical cyclone predictions
Region Chance of
above average 		Average
number 		Actual
activity
Whole 34% 11 2
Western 43% 7 2
North-Western 38% 5 0
Northern 46% 3 0
Eastern 42% 4 0
Southern Pacific 48% 15 0
Western South Pacific 56% 8 0
Eastern South Pacific 47% 11 0
Source: BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[1][2]

Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014.[3] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.[3] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.[3]

In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2014, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.[1] Each forecast issued took into account the near El Niño conditions that had developed over the region and the El Niño episode that was expected to develop during the season.[1] For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 34% chance, that the season would be near its average of around 11 tropical cyclones.[1] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to the average of 7, with a 43% chance of an above average cyclone season.[1] TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelhood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[4]

For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 38% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.[1] The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 46% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia.[1][5] The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season.[1][6] The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.[2] They predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average.[2] The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.[2]

Seasonal summary

Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

Storms

Tropical Cyclone Bakung

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
Duration10 December – 13 December
Peak intensity95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min);
991 hPa (mbar)

During 10 December TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed, about 535 km (330 mi)* to the north-east of the Cocos Islands.[7] The system had developed within a favourable environment for further development, with low to moderate vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow which was being enhanced by a trough of low pressure.[8] Over the next day the system gradually intensified/developed further, with atmospheric convection deepening near the systems centre.[9] TCWC Jakarta subsequently named the low Bakung during 11 December, as it was thought that the system had become a category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian Scale.[10][11] At the same time TCWC Jakarta reported that Bakung had peaked with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 95 km/h (60 mph), before the JTWC initiated advisories on the system later that day and designated it Tropical Cyclone 03S with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 75 km/h (45 mph).[10][12]

During 12 December TCWC Jakarta reported that the system had weakened into a category 1 tropical cyclone, while the JTWC reported that the system had intensified slightly and reached its peak intensity with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h (40 mph).[13][14] Early the next day as Tropical Cyclone Bakung continued to move westwards, it moved out of the Australian region and into the South-West Indian Ocean.[15][16] However, during that day the system's low level circulation centre became exposed and displaced about 280 km (175 mi)* from the deep convection.[15][17] As a result TCWC Jakarta and the JTWC issued their final warnings on the system, while RSMC La Reunion declared it to be a remnant low in their one and only warning on the system.[16][17][18]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate

Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 3 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
Duration21 December – 30 December (Exited basin)
Peak intensity165 km/h (105 mph) (10-min);
952 hPa (mbar)

On 21 December TCWC Perth reported that Tropical Low 04U had developed within the monsoon trough to the southeast of Sumatra, Indonesia.[19][20] Over the next few days the system gradually developed further as it moved south-eastwards, before it started to move towards the south-west and the Cocos/Keeling Islands during 23 December.[19] Early the next day, it intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, as BOM named the system Kate. The next day, Kate continued to intensified as an eye developed and reached peak intensity as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone as. On 27 December, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. On 30 December, TCWC Perth reported that Kate had moved out of the Australian region and into the South-west Indian Ocean basin.

Tropical Low 05U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration2 January – 10 January
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On 2 January TCWC Perth and Darwin started to monitor Tropical Low 05U, that had developed within the monsoon trough near Wyndham in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.[21][22][23] Over the next few days the low moved slowly westwards and was forecast to possibly move over open water and develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low 06U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration10 January – 13 January
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On 10 January, TCWC Brisbane reported that Tropical Low 06U had developed within the monsoon trough, within an unfavorable environment for further development to the northeast of Queensland.[24][25]

Tropical Low 07U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration10 January – 13 January
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
998 hPa (mbar)

On 10 January, the BoM started to monitor a tropical low south of the Solomon Islands

Tropical Low

Tropical low (Australian scale)
 
Duration16 January – 20 January
Peak intensity30 km/h (15 mph) (10-min);
1003 hPa (mbar)

Other systems

On 3 December TCWC Perth reported that Tropical Low 01U had developed over open water to the south-west of Cocos/Keeling Islands, after various applications of the Dvorak technique had produced results between T2.0 and T3.0.[26] They also reported that the low could develop into a tropical cyclone during the following six to twelve hours, however, TCWC Perth issued its final advisory on the system during the next day as the system was not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone and had started weakening.[27][28] On 13 December TCWC Perth reported that a tropical low had developed, to the south of the Indonesian island of Java.[29] Conditions surrounding the system were unfavourable for further development over the next few days, however TCWC Perth thought that there was a small chance that conditions could improve.[29][30] Over the next few days the system moved south-westwards, before it was last noted on 15 December, as it was not expected to develop further.[30][31]

Storm names

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitor Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[32] This was the first time that a tropical cyclone was named by TCWC Jakarta since 2010.

Bakung Cempaka (unused) Dahlia (unused) Flamboyan (unused) Kenanga (unused)
Lili (unused) Mawar (unused) Seroja (unused) Teratai (unused) Anggrek (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[33] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.

Alu (unused) Buri (unused) Dodo (unused) Emau (unused) Fere (unused) Hibu (unused) Ila (unused) Kama (unused) Lobu (unused) Maila (unused)

Bureau of Meteorology

Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from.[32] However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including when tropical cyclones exist in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility.

Kate Lam (unused) Marcia (unused) Nathan (unused) Olwyn (unused) Quang (unused) Raquel (unused)
Stan (unused) Tatjana (unused) Uriah (unused) Yvette (unused) Alfred (unused) Blanche (unused) Caleb (unused)

Season effects

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damages
(AU$) 		Damages
(US$) 		Deaths
Category Wind speed
(km/h (mph)) 		Pressure
(hPa)
01U 3 – 4 December Tropical low 55 km/h (35 mph) 1000 hPa (29.53 inHg) None None None None
Bakung 10 – 13 December Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph) 991 hPa (29.26 inHg) None None None None
Tropical Low 13 – 15 December Tropical low Not specified Not Specified None None None None
Kate 21 – 30 December Category 4 severe tropical cyclone 165 km/h (105 mph) 952 hPa (28.11 inHg) Cocos (Keeling) Islands Minor Minor None [19]
05U 2 – 10 January Tropical low Not specified Not Specified Kimberley Minor Minor None [23]
06U 10 – 13 January Tropical low Not specified Not Specified Queensland None None None
07U 10 – 13 January Tropical low 55 km/h (35 mph) 998 hPa (29.47 inHg) Solomon Islands None None None
Tropical Low 16 – 20 January Tropical low 30 km/h (15 mph) 1003 hPa (29.62 inHg) Kimberley, Pilbara None None None
Season aggregates
8 systems 3 December – Currently active 165 km/h (105 mph) 952 hPa (28.11 inHg) Minor None


See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h National Climate Centre (13 October 2014). "2014–2015 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 13 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  2. ^ a b c d National Climate Centre (15 October 2014). "2014–2015 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 15 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  3. ^ a b c d "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Near average tropical cyclone numbers for the region is likely, with increased activity from February onward". The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 15 October 2014. Retrieved 22 October 2014.
  4. ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (13 October 2014). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 13 October 2014. Retrieved 13 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  5. ^ Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (14 October 2013). "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 16 January 2014. {{cite web}}: Check |archiveurl= value (help); Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  6. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for The Coral Sea". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 13 October 2014. Archived from the original on 13 October 2014. Retrieved 13 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  7. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 10 December 2014". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 10 December 2014. Archived from the original on 19 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  8. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center. "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 11 December 2014 02:30z". United States Navy, United States Airforce. Archived from the original on 19 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  9. ^ RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center (11 December 2014). Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean 11 December 2014 12:06 UTC 2015 (Report). Météo-France. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 January. Retrieved 1 January 2015. {{cite report}}: Check date values in: |archivedate= (help)
  10. ^ a b Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (11 December 2014). "Ocean Gale and Storm Warning 11 December 2014 14:46 UTC". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  11. ^ RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center (12 December 2014). Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean 12 December 2014 12:06 UTC (Report). Météo-France. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  12. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (11 December 2014). "Tropical Cyclone 03S (Bakung) Warning 11 December 2014 21:00z". United States Navy, United States Airforce. Archived from the original on 19 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  13. ^ Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (12 December 2014). "Ocean Gale and Storm Warning 12 December 2014 01:29 UTC". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  14. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (12 December 2014). "Tropical Cyclone 03S (Bakung) Warning 12 December 2014 09:00z". United States Navy, United States Airforce. Archived from the original on 19 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  15. ^ a b RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center (13 December 2014). Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean 13 December 2014 12:06 UTC (Report). Météo-France. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 January. Retrieved 1 January 2015. {{cite report}}: Check date values in: |archivedate= (help)
  16. ^ a b Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (13 December 2014). "Ocean Gale and Storm Warning 13 December 2014 02:02 UTC". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  17. ^ a b RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Center (13 December 2014). Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning 13 December 2014 05:59 UTC (Report). Météo-France. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  18. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (13 December 2014). "Tropical Cyclone 03S (Bakung) Warning 13 December 2014 09:00z". United States Navy, United States Airforce. Archived from the original on 19 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  19. ^ a b c Western Australian Regional Office (1 January 2015). Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015. {{cite report}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  20. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 22 December 2014". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 22 December 2014. Archived from the original on 22 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  21. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 2 January 2015". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2 January 2015. Archived from the original on 2 January 2015. Retrieved 2 January 2015.
  22. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region 2 January 2015". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2 January 2015. Archived from the original on 2 January 2015. Retrieved 2 January 2015.
  23. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region 2 January 2015". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2 January 2015. Archived from the original on 2 January 2015. Retrieved 2 January 2015.
  24. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Coral Sea 10 January 2015". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 10 January 2015. Archived from the original on 10 January 2015. Retrieved 24 January 2015.
  25. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Coral Sea 13 January 2015". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 13 January 2015. Archived from the original on 13 January 2015. Retrieved 24 January 2015.
  26. ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (3 December 2014). "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia: Western Region: 3 December 2014: 19:00 UTC". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 4 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  27. ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (3 December 2014). "High Seas Weather Warning for Metarea 10: 3 December 2014: 18:58 UTC". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 4 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  28. ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (4 December 2014). "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia: Western Region: 4 December 2014: 07:10 UTC". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 4 December 2014. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  29. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 13 December 2014". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 13 December 2014. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  30. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 14 December 2014". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 14 December 2014. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  31. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region 15 December 2014". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 15 December 2014. Archived from the original on 1 January 2015. Retrieved 1 January 2015.
  32. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast indian Ocean, 2012 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 4 July 2013.
  33. ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 1 July 2013.

External links

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