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2018 Pacific hurricane season

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2018 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 10, 2018
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameHector
 • Maximum winds155 mph (250 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure936 mbar (hPa; 27.64 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions12
Total storms10
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
3
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Pacific hurricane seasons
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

The 2018 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific, and on June 1 in the central Pacific; they will both end on November 30.[1] These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin, as illustrated when the first tropical depression formed on May 10. The first named storm of the season, Hurricane Aletta, formed on June 6. Hurricane Bud formed three days later and made landfall in Baja California early on June 15.

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Average (1981-2010): 15.4 7.6 3.2 [2]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [3]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [3]
Date Source Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
May 24, 2018 NOAA 14–20 7–12 3–7 [4]
May 25, 2018 SMN 18 6 4 [5]
Area Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 10 5 3
Actual activity: CPAC 0 0 0
Actual activity: 10 5 3

On May 24, 2018, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast, predicting a 80% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 14–20 named storms, 7–12 hurricanes, and 3–7 major hurricanes.[4] On May 25, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first forecast for the season, predicting a total of 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes to develop.[5]

Seasonal summary

Hurricane Hector (2018)Tropical Storm Carlotta (2018)Hurricane Bud (2018)Saffir–Simpson scale

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, as of 15:00 UTC August 6, is accumulated 59.895 units (56.8925 units for the Eastern Pacific and 3.0025 units for the Central Pacific) [nb 1]

The 2018 season began with the formation of Tropical Depression One-E on May 10, five days prior to the official start. June was an extraordinarily active month in the basin, breaking the record for number of tropical cyclones (six), as well as tying the records for number of named storms (five) and major hurricanes (two).[6] Fabio's intensification into a tropical storm on July 1 marked the earliest date of a season's sixth named storm, beating the previous record of July 3 set in both 1984 and 1985.[7] Activity slowed abruptly thereafter, with only three tropical cyclones forming during the peak month of July,[8] one of which continued on to intensify into Hurricane Hector in August, which became the third major hurricane of the season. In August, activity increased drastically, with Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Storm John forming just a day apart on August 4 and August 5, respectively.

Systems

Tropical Depression One-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 10 – May 11
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1007 mbar (hPa)

In early May, a westward-tracking trough or tropical wave embedded in the monsoon trough interacted with a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave. This interaction led to a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity well southwest of Mexico,[9] which the National Hurricane Center began monitoring for tropical cyclone formation on May 7.[10] The disturbance organized over the next 48 hours but lacked a well-defined center needed for classification;[11] by late on May 9, environmental conditions were becoming less favorable for development.[12] In spite of this, an increase in convection and formation of a well-defined circulation led to the designation of the season's first tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on May 10.[13] The system failed to intensify after formation and, owing to strong westerly wind shear, ultimately degenerated into a remnant low by 18:00 UTC on May 11.[14]

Hurricane Aletta

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 6 – June 11
Peak intensity140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min);
943 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave departed western Africa on May 22, moving inconspicuously across the Atlantic and failing to develop convection until it was south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on June 3. Following the formation of a well-defined center, the system was upgraded to a tropical depression around 00:00 UTC on June 6. It intensified into Tropical Storm Aletta six hours later. Subtropical ridging over the United States directed the system west-northwest, while ideal environmental conditions allowed Aletta to reach hurricane strength around 18:00 UTC on June 7. A period of rapid deepening ensued shortly thereafter, with maximum winds increasing from 75 mph (120 km/h) to 140 mph (220 km/h) within an 18-hour period.[15] At peak, the hurricane was characterized by a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -70°C (-94°F).[16] A track into cooler waters and a more stable air mass caused Aletta to weaken as quickly as it intensified, falling from Category 4 strength to a tropical storm within 30 hours. After losing its associated deep convection, the system degenerated to a remnant low around 12:00 UTC on June 11. The low meandered for several days, before dissipating early on June 16.[15]

Hurricane Bud

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 9 – June 15
Peak intensity130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min);
948 mbar (hPa)

A broad area of disturbed weather formed west of Costa Rica on June 5 in association with a westward-moving tropical wave.[17] Gradual organization occurred as the wave tracked generally westward across the eastern Pacific Ocean. On June 9, the disturbance developed a well-defined surface circulation, leading to the classification of a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC.[18] Six hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Bud.[19] A mid-level ridge to the storm's north directed it on a northwest heading for several days,[20] while favorable environmental conditions led to rapid intensification. Bud attained hurricane strength by 21:00 UTC on June 10,[21] and continued intensification up to its peak as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) around 06:00 UTC on June 12.[22] The effects of cold water upwelling prompted a rapid weakening trend shortly after peak, with Bud falling to a tropical storm by 12:00 UTC on June 13.[23] It made landfall near Cabo San Lucas with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) shortly after 00:00 UTC on June 15 before progressing into the Gulf of California,[24] where it ultimately degenerated to a remnant low around 21:00 UTC that day.[25]

Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 14 – June 19
Peak intensity65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min);
997 mbar (hPa)

A broad area of low pressure formed south of Mexico on June 12,[26] organizing into the season's fourth tropical depression by 21:00 UTC on June 14 and further into Tropical Storm Carlotta around 18:00 UTC on June 15.[27][28] Initial forecasts showed the storm only slightly intensifying before moving ashore the coastline of Mexico;[29] instead, Carlotta stalled just offshore and strengthened to attain peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) as it established an inner core and eye.[30] Interaction between the system's eyewall and land prompted a swift weakening trend as it paralleled the Mexican shoreline, and Carlotta fell to tropical depression intensity by 18:00 UTC on June 17, before degenerating to a remnant low around 03:00 UTC on June 19.[31][32]

Tropical Storm Daniel

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 24 – June 26
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1003 mbar (hPa)

Late on June 21, the NHC began monitoring a surface trough and its associated disorganized convection several hundred miles southwest of Baja California. Environmental conditions were expected to be marginally conducive for development as it moved north-northwest.[33] Convection began to show signs of organization early on June 23,[34] and this process led to the formation of a tropical depression by 03:00 UTC on the next morning, as spiral bands wrapped into the storm's well-defined center.[35] At 15:00 UTC on June 24, the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm and was assigned the name Daniel.[36]At 18:00 UTC on June 24, Tropical Storm Daniel reached peak intensity with sustained winds of 45 mph.[37] At 15:00 UTC on June 25, Daniel began to weaken as it moved over seas cooler than 25° C (77° F).[38] The system weakened to a tropical depression at 18:00 UTC that day.[39] At 15:00 UTC on June 26, Daniel degenerated into a remnant low, as it lost all convection and was reduced to a swirl of low-level clouds.[40]

Tropical Storm Emilia

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 27 – July 2
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
997 mbar (hPa)

On June 23, the NHC noted the potential for tropical cyclogenesis from a tropical wave crossing over Costa Rica. Environmental conditions were expected to be conducive for development as it moved westward.[41] The system then steadily organized over warm waters and formed into Tropical Depression Six-E at 21:00 UTC June 27, about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.[42] It gradually strengthened into Tropical Storm Emilia at 09:00 UTC on June 28.[43] Near 21:00 UTC on June 29, Emilia reached its peak intensity, with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h); however, it was subject to strong wind shear.[44] The shear took its toll on Emilia, and by 15:00 UTC the next day, it weakened into a tropical depression.[45] Finally, at 03:00 UTC on July 2, Emilia degenerated into a remnant low, as it lost its convection and was reduced to a swirl of clouds.[46]

Hurricane Fabio

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 30 – July 6
Peak intensity110 mph (175 km/h) (1-min);
964 mbar (hPa)

The NHC first noted the potential for tropical cyclogenesis from a tropical wave crossing over Honduras and Nicaragua at 18:00 UTC on June 24.[47] Subsequent development was expected of the system as it moved westward. It steadily organized over warm waters and transitioned into Tropical Depression Seven-E at 21:00 UTC June 30, 490 miles (790 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.[48] The system gradually strengthened into Tropical Storm Fabio at 09:00 UTC on July 1.[49] With SSTs of 30° C (86° F) and almost no wind shear, Fabio began to intensify, quickly strengthening into a hurricane by 15:00 UTC on July 2.[50] Initially, forecasters at the NHC predicted that Fabio would intensify further and become a major hurricane, although it failed to do so and peaked with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h), just shy of major hurricane status.[51] Afterward, Fabio began to rapidly weaken as it moved over cooler waters. At 15:00 UTC on July 6, Fabio degenerated into a remnant low as it lost its convection while located 1,285 miles (2,065 km) off the coast of the Baja Peninsula.[52]

Tropical Storm Gilma

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 26 – July 29
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

On July 18, the NHC forecast the development of an area of low pressure over the east Pacific Ocean within the next few days.[53] A weak area of low pressure developed several hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on July 22. Little development occurred over the next few days as the low moved northwestward across the Pacific Ocean. However, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low began to quickly organize on July 26, leading to the classification of a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on July 26.[54] At 09:00 UTC the following day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Gilma.[55] However, northwesterly wind shear soon exposed the center of circulation, causing Gilma to weaken to a tropical depression just twelve hours later.[56] At 21:00 UTC on July 29, the system degenerated into a remnant low as it had lacked organized deep convection for 12 hours.[57]

Tropical Depression Nine-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 26 – July 27
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1008 mbar (hPa)

The NHC began monitoring a disorganized area of low pressure in the deep tropical Pacific Ocean on July 24 for tropical cyclone development.[58] Gradual organization ensued as the low moved westward, and by July 26 it had organized sufficiently to be classified as a tropical depression.[59] The depression failed to organize, however, and the center soon became difficult to locate on satellite imagery.[60] After having lasted less than a day as a tropical cyclone, the depression opened up into a trough as it became embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone at 12:00 UTC on July 27.[61]

Hurricane Hector

Hurricane Hector
Current storm status
Category 4 hurricane (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:05.00 a.m. HST (15:00 UTC August 6)
Location:15°00′N 141°54′W / 15.0°N 141.9°W / 15.0; -141.9 (Hurricane Hector) ± 15 nm
About 930 mi (1,495 km) ESE of Hilo, Hawaii
Sustained winds:125 kt (145 mph; 230 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 150 kt (175 mph; 280 km/h)
Pressure:941 mbar (hPa; 27.79inHg)
Movement:W at 13 kt (15 mph; 24 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Late on July 26, the NHC noted the development of an area of low pressure that was forecast to form a couple hundred miles west-southwest of Mexico.[62] A broad area of low pressure formed several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico at 12:00 UTC on July 28.[63] The system gradually developed into a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on July 31.[64] The depression quickly organized, developing a more defined center and spiral banding, and at 03:00 UTC on August 1, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Hector.[65] Hector further strengthened and became a hurricane at 14:00 UTC on August 2.[66] Afterward, the small hurricane rapidly strengthened, becoming a strong Category 2 hurricane just six hours later.[67] However, the eye became clouded and ill-defined shortly afterward, and Hector's intensification halted momentarily, as northeasterly shear and dry air impinged on the system, weakening the system back to a Category 1 hurricane.[68] However, the hurricane quickly intensified yet again, and restrengthened back into a Category 2 hurricane, and later to a Category 3 hurricane, making it the third major hurricane of the season. A strong convective band soon wrapped into Hector's central dense overcast (CDO), strengthening it to Category 4 major hurricane.[69] The next morning, a shrinking CDO weakened Hector back into a Category 3 storm.[70]

Current storm information

As of 05:00 a.m. (15:00 UTC August 6), Hurricane Hector is located within 15 nautical miles of 15°00′N 141°54′W / 15.0°N 141.9°W / 15.0; -141.9 (Hector), about 930 miles (1,495 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are 125 knots (145 mph; 230 km/h), with gusts to 150 knots (175 mph; 280 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 941 mbar (hPa; 27.79 inHg), and the system is moving west at 13 knots (15 mph; 24 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hector, while hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles (45 km) from the center.

For latest official information, see:

Tropical Storm Ileana

Tropical Storm Ileana
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:4.00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) August 6
Location:17°00′N 103°18′W / 17.0°N 103.3°W / 17.0; -103.3 (Tropical Storm Ileana) ± 30 nm
About 155 mi (245 km) SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico
Sustained winds:55 kt (65 mph; 100 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 65 kt (75 mph; 120 km/h)
Pressure:998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg)
Movement:NW at 15 kt (17 mph; 28 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A tropical wave entered the eastern Pacific Ocean on August 3, where the NHC began to monitor the system for tropical development.[71] Although the system was initially disorganized, it rapidly organized over the next two days, and on August 4 it developed into a tropical depression while located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.[72] The depression continued to organize that night through the next day, and at 21:00 UTC on August 5, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Ileana.[73]

Current storm information

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) August 6, Tropical Storm Ileana is located within 30 nautical miles of 17°00′N 103°18′W / 17.0°N 103.3°W / 17.0; -103.3 (Ileana), about 155 miles (245 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 55 knots (65 mph; 100 km/h), with gusts to 65 knots (75 mph; 120 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg), and the system is moving northwest at 15 knots (17 mph; 28 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ileana.

For latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Hurricane John

Hurricane John
Current storm status
Category 1 hurricane (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) August 6
Location:16°00′N 108°00′W / 16.0°N 108.0°W / 16.0; -108.0 (Hurricane John) ± 30 nm
About 320 mi (515 km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico
Sustained winds:65 kt (75 mph; 120 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 80 kt (90 mph; 150 km/h)
Pressure:990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 7 kt (8 mph; 13 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Current storm information

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) August 6, Hurricane John is located within 15 nautical miles of 16°00′N 108°00′W / 16.0°N 108.0°W / 16.0; -108.0 (John), about 320 miles (541 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 65 knots (75 mph; 120 km/h), with gusts to 80 knots (90 mph; 150 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 7 knots (8 mph; 13 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of John.

For latest official information, see:

Storm names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season.[74] This is the same list used in the 2012 season.

  • Ileana (active)
  • John (active)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists.[75] The next four names that will be slated for use in 2018 are shown below.

  • Walaka (unused)
  • Akoni (unused)
  • Ema (unused)
  • Hone (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2018 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity
Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Ref(s)
One-E May 10 – 11 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1007 None None None
Aletta June 6 – 11 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 943 None None None
Bud June 9 – 16 Category 4 hurricane 130 (215) 948 Western Mexico, Baja California Sur, Southwestern United States Unknown None
Carlotta June 14 – 19 Tropical storm 65 (100) 997 Southwestern Mexico Unknown None
Daniel June 24 – 26 Tropical storm 45 (75) 1003 None None None
Emilia June 27 – July 2 Tropical storm 60 (95) 997 None None None
Fabio June 30 – July 6 Category 2 hurricane 110 (175) 964 None None None
Gilma July 26 – 29 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1006 None None None
Nine-E July 26 – 27 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1008 None None None
Hector July 31 – Present Category 4 hurricane 155 (250) 936 None None None
Ileana August 4 – Present Tropical storm 65 (100) 998 None None None
John August 5 – Present Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 990 None None None
Season aggregates
12 systems May 10 – Season ongoing   155 (250) 936 Unknown None  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2018 Pacific hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

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