2012–13 Australian region cyclone season: Difference between revisions
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| '''Mitchell''' || 26 December – 30 December || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{Sort|1|Category 1 tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{Sort|075|75 km/h (45 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{sort|0990|990 hPa (29.23 inHg)}} || None || None || None || None || |
| '''Mitchell''' || 26 December – 30 December || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{Sort|1|Category 1 tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{Sort|075|75 km/h (45 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TS}}|{{sort|0990|990 hPa (29.23 inHg)}} || None || None || None || None || |
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| '''Freda''' || 29 December – 29 December || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|2|Category 2 tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|100|100 km/h (65 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|0980|980 hPa (28.94 inHg)}} || Solomon Islands || Moderate || Moderate || None || |
| '''Freda''' || 29 December – 29 December || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|2|Category 2 tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|100|100 km/h (65 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A2}}|{{Sort|0980|980 hPa (28.94 inHg)}} || [[Solomon Islands]] || Moderate || Moderate || None || |
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| '''Narelle''' || 5 January – Currently active || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|5|Category 5 severe tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|205|205 km/h (125 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|0925|925 hPa (27.32 inHg)}} || |
| '''Narelle''' || 5 January – Currently active || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|5|Category 5 severe tropical cyclone}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|205|205 km/h (125 mph)}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|A5}}|{{Sort|0925|925 hPa (27.32 inHg)}} || [[Western Australia]] || None || None || None || |
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| '''Tropical Low''' || 12 January – Currently active || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|0|Tropical low}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|000|Not Specified}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|1004|1004 hPa (29.65 inHg)}} || None || None || None || None || |
| '''Tropical Low''' || 12 January – Currently active || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|0|Tropical low}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|000|Not Specified}} || bgcolor=#{{storm color|TD}}|{{Sort|1004|1004 hPa (29.65 inHg)}} || None || None || None || None || |
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Revision as of 02:20, 14 January 2013
| 2012–13 Australian region cyclone season | |
|---|---|
 Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | 26 December 2012 |
| Last system dissipated | Season currently active |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Narelle |
| • Maximum winds | 205 km/h (125 mph) (10-minute sustained) |
| • Lowest pressure | 925 hPa (mbar) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Tropical lows | 4 |
| Tropical cyclones | 3 |
| Severe tropical cyclones | 1 |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2012–13 Australian region cyclone season is an event in the ongoing cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on 1 November 2012, and will end on 30 April 2013. The regional tropical cyclone operational plan defines a "tropical cyclone year" separately from a "tropical cyclone season"; the "tropical cyclone year" began on 1 July 2012 and will end on 30 June 2013.[1]
The scope of the Australian region is limited to all areas south of the equator, east of 90°E and west of 160°E. This area includes Australia, Papua New Guinea, western parts of the Solomon Islands, East Timor and southern parts of Indonesia.[1]
Tropical cyclones in this area are monitored by five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs): the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane; TCWC Jakarta in Indonesia; and TCWC Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea.[1] The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues unofficial warnings for the region, designating tropical depressions with the "S" suffix when they form west of 145°E, and the "P" suffix when they form east of 145°E.
Seasonal forecasts
| Region | Chance of above average |
Average number |
Actual activity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole | 37% | 11 | 3 | |
| Western | 43% | 7 | 2 | |
| North-Western | 42% | 5 | 2 | |
| Northern | 48% | 3 | 0 | |
| Eastern | 43% | 3 | 1 | |
| Southern Pacific | 53% | 15 | 2 | |
| Western South Pacific | 35% | 8 | 1 | |
| Eastern South Pacific | 55% | 11 | 1 | |
| Source:BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[2][3] | ||||
| Region | Normal number |
Prediction | Actual activity | |
| GCACIC Whole | 12 - 15 | 12 | 3 | |
| GCACIC Western | 9 - 10 | 9 | 2 | |
| GCACIC Eastern | 5 - 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| NIWA | 10 | 9 - 10 | 2 | |
| Sources:[4][5] | ||||
During each tropical cyclone year, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre (BoM), the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and partners issue seasonal forecasts for the Australian region and its various subregions. Since a tropical cyclone can move through a region, the actual number of tropical cyclones in a region include any that form in or move into a region from another.
Bureau of Meteorology
In October 2012, ahead of the tropical cyclone season starting on November 1, the BoM issued seasonal forecasts for the whole Australian region, one for each of the subregions Western, North-Western, Northern and Eastern Australia with each one covering the whole tropical cyclone year.[2] For each forecast they took into account, the current neutral ENSO conditions and the near El Nino conditions that had been observed during that summer.[2] For the whole region they predicted that the season would be below average, with a 63% chance that it would be below average and a 37% chance that it would be above average.[2] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to or slightly below the average, with a 43% chance of a below average cyclone activity.[2] For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that there was a 58% chance of below average tropical cyclone activity, while TCWC Perth noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[6] There was no tendency towards an above or below average tropical cyclone season for the Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E, while the Eastern region had a 57% chance of having a below average tropical cyclone season.[2]
The BoM also issued seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.[3] They noted that the current neutral ENSO conditions would historically suggest the South Pacific region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season.[3] However, because of the warmer than average sea surface temperatures that were experienced in the central equatorial Pacific during July, August and September 2012, the western Southern Pacific had a 65% chance for average to below average tropical cyclone activity.[3] For the Eastern part of the region the BoM predicted that it had a 55% chance of above average tropical cyclones, while for the overall region, they predicted that the region would experience a near average amount of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones.[3]
Others
During October 2012, the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and its partners issued a tropical cyclone outlook, for the South Pacific region between 135°E and 120°W.[4] The outlook predicted that the region would see a near average or slightly above average amount of tropical cyclones with between 9 and 12 systems predicted to develop or move into the region.[4] NIWA also predicted that countries west of the International Date Line, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Fiji were likely to experience an average to slightly above normal risk of a tropical cyclone.[4]
During December 2012, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), issued a seasonal forecast for the whole basin and one each for the regions to the east and west of 135°E.[5] This season the GCACIC predicted that tropical cyclone activity in the entire Australian region and the western Australian region was likely to be near-normal and predicted 12 and 9 tropical cyclone respectively.[5] For the eastern Australian region, the GCAIC predicted that tropical cyclone activity would be below average and only predicted 4 tropical cyclones to develop.[5]
Seasonal summary
Storms
Tropical Cyclone Freda
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 29 December (Entered basin) – 29 December (Exited basin) |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 100 km/h (65 mph) (10-min); 980 hPa (mbar) |
On 28 December, TCWC Brisbane assigned the designation 03U to Tropical Cyclone Freda, as it came within a degree of moving across 160°E and into the Australian region.[7] On 29 December, the system moved out of the basin, moving back into the South Pacific basin.
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 26 December – 30 December |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min); 990 hPa (mbar) |
During 26 December, TCWC Perth started to monitor a weak tropical low that had developed about 1,265 km (785 mi)* to the southeast of Jakarta, Indonesia.[8] Over the next couple of days the low moved towards the south-southwest and gradually developed further before the JTWC declared it Tropical Cyclone 06S on 28 December. The system reached Category 1 Tropical Cyclone status on the morning of 29 December, and was named Mitchell.[9] On 30 December, TCWC Perth downgraded the system to a tropical low.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
| Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 5 January – Currently active |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 205 km/h (125 mph) (10-min); 925 hPa (mbar) |
![[icon]](/wiki/File:Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg){kind=small} | This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (January 2013) |
On 5 January, TCWC Darwin reported that a weak tropical low had formed within the Timor Sea about 160 km (100 mi)* to the southeast of Dili in Timor-leste.[10] Two days later TCWC Perth commenced regular bulletins under the designation 05U.[11] The system reached category one tropical cyclone status on 8 January and subsequently was named Narelle.[12] As of 12 January, Narelle was a category 5 severe cyclone, with a cyclone warning between Roebourne and Coral Bay, and a cyclone watch between Coral Bay and Carnarvon. On 12 January, people living in Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay were told to prepare for the storm.[13]
Tropical Low
| Tropical low (Australian scale) | |
 | |
| Duration | 12 January – Currently active |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | Winds not specified; 1004 hPa (mbar) |
On 12 January, TCWC Darwin reported that an tropical low had formed within the Timor Sea.
Storm names
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitor Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 135E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[1] The next name that will be used is Bakung.
| Bakung (unused) | Cempaka (unused) | Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) |
| Lili (unused) | Mawar (unused) | Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones developing in it since 2007.[14] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
| Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) | Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from.[1] However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, issuing special advisories when a cyclone forms in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next name that will be used is Oswald.
| Mitchell | Narelle (active) | Oswald (unused) | Peta (unused) | Rusty (unused) | Sandra (unused) | Tim (unused) |
| Victoria (unused) | Zane (unused) | Alessia (unused) | Bruce (unused) | Christine (unused) | Dylan (unused) | Edna (unused) |
Season effects
| Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damages (AU$) |
Damages (US$) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | |||||||
| Mitchell | 26 December – 30 December | Category 1 tropical cyclone | 75 km/h (45 mph) | 990 hPa (29.23 inHg) | None | None | None | None | |
| Freda | 29 December – 29 December | Category 2 tropical cyclone | 100 km/h (65 mph) | 980 hPa (28.94 inHg) | Solomon Islands | Moderate | Moderate | None | |
| Narelle | 5 January – Currently active | Category 5 severe tropical cyclone | 205 km/h (125 mph) | 925 hPa (27.32 inHg) | Western Australia | None | None | None | |
| Tropical Low | 12 January – Currently active | Tropical low | Not Specified | 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) | None | None | None | None | |
| Season aggregates | |||||||||
| 4 systems | 26 December – Currently active | 205 km/h (125 mph) | 925 hPa (27.32 inHg) | None | None | ||||
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2012, 2013
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2012, 2013
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2012, 2013
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2012, 2013
- 2012–13 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ a b c d e "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast indian Ocean, 2010 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 7 June 2012.
{{cite web}}: no-break space character in|title=at position 87 (help) - ^ a b c d e f National Climate Centre (15 October, 2012). "2012–2013 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 7 January 2013. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help); Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b c d e National Climate Centre (15 October 2012). "2012–2013 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b c d "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Near average or slightly above average numbers for many islands likely, and increased activity in the late season near Tonga and Niue". National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research. 18 October 2012. Archived from the original on 8 January 2013. Retrieved 8 January 2013.
- ^ a b c d Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (3 December 2012). "2012–13 Predictions of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Australian region" (PDF). City University of Hong Kong. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
- ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (15 October, 2012). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 7 January 2013. Retrieved 7 January 2013.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help); Unknown parameter|deadurl=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (28 December 2012). "Satellite Analysis Bulletin 28 December, 2012 05z". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 28 December, 2012. Retrieved 28 December, 2012.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=and|archivedate=(help) - ^ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (26 December, 2012). "Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region 26 December, 2012". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 26 December, 2012. Retrieved 28 December, 2012.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=,|date=, and|archivedate=(help) - ^ http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt
- ^ Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (5 January 2013). "Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, 5 January 2013". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 5 January 2013. Retrieved 5 January 2013.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin - Western Region". TCWC Perth. Archived from the original on January 07, 2013. Retrieved January 07, 2013.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|accessdate=and|archivedate=(help) - ^ http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt
- ^ "Narelle moves closer to WA north coast". World News Australia. Retrieved 12 January 2013.
- ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 1 July 2012.
External links
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC's Perth, Darwin & Brisbane).
- Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta.
- World Meteorological Organization
Tropical cyclones of the 2012–13 Australian region cyclone season | ||
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