Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 92.40.212.157 (talk) at 15:43, 14 December 2023 (CARETAKER, as stated by local media outlets (Dawn, Pakistan), as cited on Reference note 3).). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

National Assembly Voting intention

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[a] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b][1][2]
2 December 2023 Gohar Ali Khan, Imran Khan's lawer nominee, is elected, unopposed[3], the chairman of the PTI, on a 'caretaker basis'.

basis".[4]

21 October 2023 Nawaz Sharif returns, under protective judicial bail, from 4 years of self-imposed exile in London.[5]
10 August 2023 The National Assembly is dissolved by President Arif Alvi on advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.[6]
5 August 2023 Imran Khan is again arrested, found guilty of "corrupt practices" by an Islamabad trial court, and disqualified from holding public office.[7]
30 June 2023 Gallup Pakistan PDF 48% 23% 14% 2% 5% 8% 25% ±2.5% 3,500 13%
9–12 May 2023 Imran Khan is arrested from the Islamabad High Court, triggering nationwide protests, and then released.[8][9]
5 April 2023 Iris Communications PDF 45% 22% 13% 2% 6% 13% 23% N/A 3,000 12%
3 November 2022 Imran Khan is injured in an assassination attempt in Wazirabad during the 2022 Azadi March II.[10]
16 October 2022 2022 By-Elections 49.6% 13.1% 12.4% 7.0% 3.8% 5.5% 36.5% N/A 1,179,656 13,440
17 July 2022 PTI wins the July 2022 Punjab provincial by-election[11]
3 June 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 - 3% 2,003 25%
11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz's brother, is elected Prime Minister[12]
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion[13]
21 March 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,509 16%
31 January 2022 Gallup Pakistan PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 - 5% 5,688 33%
9 January 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,769 11%
11 November 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
13 August 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
30 June 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[c]
19 November 2019 Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, while under restrictive judicial bail, flew to London on medical grounds[14]
24 June 2019 Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 - 5% ~1,400 N/A[c]
22 November 2018 IPOR (IRI) PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
17 August 2018 Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister of Pakistan[15][16]
25 July 2018 2018 Elections ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A
Directly elected seats on National Assembly 116 64 43 12 -- 22 13 2 (postponed) 272 women,minorities:70 {Total 342}

Punjab

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link PTI PML(N) TLP PPP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Republic Policy Lahore District November 2023 [17] 61% 22% 17% 39% 6,850+ 274 Union Councils N/A
Rawalpindi District [18] 57% 25% 18% 32% 1,150+
Jhelum Distr. [19] 56% 28% 16% 28% 1,100+
Murree Distr.  [20] 58% 28% 14% 30% 375+
Attock Distr [21] 61% 26% 13% 35% 1,775+
Chakwal Distr. [22] 55% 29% 16% 26% 1,775+
Talagang Distr. [23] 60% 29% 11% 31% 575+
Mandi Bahawddin Dist [24] 48% 37% 15% 11% 2,000+
Gujranwala Distr. [25] 51% 38% 11% 13% 2,325+
Gujrat Distr. [26] 51% 28% 21% 23% 2,925+
Sialkot Distr. [27] 54% 31% 15% 21% 3,550+
Wazir Abad Distr. [28] 49% 39% 12% 10% 900+
Bakkar Distr. [29] 54% 22% 24 32% 1,600+
Khushab Distr. [30] 52% 32% 16% 20% 1,200+
Narowal District [31] 48% 40% 12% 8% 975+
Republic Policy Hafizabad Distr 1 NA .
20-22 November 2023 [32] 1 seat 0 1 4,725+
Republic Policy Faisalabad Dist 10 NA 15-20 November 2023 [33] 5+ seats 5 (competitive) 5 8,650+(25+ for each UC)
Republic Policy Lahore District (14 NA seats) 1-15 October 2023 [34][35] 61% 22% 8% 9% 39% 6,850+(274 UC / NA 117 to NA130)
7seats 2 5 (competitive) 5
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 49% 33% 7% 5% 6% 16% N/A 16%
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 51% 35% 6% 6% 3% 16% N/A 11%
Republic Policy Punjab overall : 10 DIVISIONS 41 Districts 1 -25 March 2023 [36] 68% 18% 6% 3% 5% 50% 86,359+ 3,454 Union Councils N/A[c]
PA 14 January 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and the scheduled snap election called by ECP is postponed by Central Government to coincide with General Elections on 8 Feb 2024
Oct 2022 By-elections 16 October 2022 49.0% 42.5% 7.0% 1.5% 6.3% 351,267 6,483
Jul 2022 By-elections 17 July 2022 [37] 46.8% 39.5% 5.54% 7.85% 7.3% 2,240,465 1.59
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 34% 42% 2% 6% 16% 8% ~1,900 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 35% 43% 3% 7% 9% 3% 8% ~3,100 31%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 31% 46% 3% 5% 15% 15% 2,035 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 26% 39% 2% 5% 27% 1% 13% 1,089 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 33.6% 31.7% 5.7% 5.4% 4.8% 18.8% 1.9% 33,218,101 N/A
Directly elected NA seats from Punjab: 141 68 63 O 6 4 (PMLQ) 0 5 141 42 (33 women+9 minorities)Tot: 183

Sindh

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
PA 11 August 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Kamran Tessori on the advice of Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah.[38]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 43.4% 42.2% 2.4% 1.2% 10.8% 1.2% N/A 17%
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 29.5% 34.1% 10.2% 26.1% 4.6% 3,000 12%
Sindh By-elections 16 October 2022 50.0% 25.6% 12.5% 0.15 11.8% 24.4% 146,470 1,493
NA-245 By-election 21 August 2022 [39] 48.85% 21.87% 23.51 5.77 26.98% 60,760 0.70%
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 17% 44% 5% 34% 27% ~810 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 30% 34% 3% 3% 28% 2% 4% ~1,300 39%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 13% 44% 7% 36% 31% 867 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 13% 22% 1% 3% 61% 9% 467 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 14.5% 38.4% 7.7% 6.1% 25.9% 7.4% 23.6% 10,025,437 N/A
Directly elected NA seats from Sindh: 61 15 36 6 2(GDA) 0 2 21 61 22 (13 women + 9 minorities) Tot.:83

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link PTI MMA ANP PML(N) PPP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 81.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1% 2.4% 0.0% 67.1% N/A 15%
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 58.4% 9.0% 10.1% 10.1% 12.4% 48.3% 3,000 11%
PA 18 January 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called.
KPK By-elections 16 October 2022 53.3% 41.9% 4.8% 11.4% 445,604 6,994
PK-7 By-election 26 June 2022 [40] 52% 44% 2% 8% 33,573 2%
NA-33 By Election 17 April 2022 48.8% 42.8% 8.4% 6% 43,148 537
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 38% 23% 8% 13% 8% 10% 15% ~600 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 44% 13% 6% 21% 8% 7% 1% 23% ~970 28%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 17% 11% 11% 7% 10% 27% 641 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 34% 8% 3% 12% 4% 26% 21% 331 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 39.3% 18.9% 9.3% 10.7% 7.5% 3.5% 10.8% 20.4% 6,611,287 N/A
Directly elected NA seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 51 37 7 2 3 0 2 30 51 12 (8 women + 4 minorities)Tot.: 63

Balochistan

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link BNP PTI NP BAP MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
PA 12 August 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Abdul Wali Kakar on the advice of Chief Minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo.[41]
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 21.0% 16.0% 16.0% 11.1% 35.8% 5% 3,000 19%
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 9.04% 6.05% 4.91% 24.44% 15.28 23.33% 16.95% 9.16% 1,899,565 82,178
Directly elected NA seats from Balochistan: 17 3 2 0 4 5 1(JWP) 1 1 17 7 (3 minorities+4 women) Total: 24

Islamabad Capital Territory

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link PTI PML(N) PPP TLP MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
Republic Policy. Islamabad District ( 3 NA seats) 1-15 October 2023 URL[42] 67.0% 17.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 50% 1,250+ (50 Union Councils) N/A
3 seats 0 3
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 48.24% 24.88% 12.58% 4.66% 3.72% 1.28% 4.64% 23.36% 445,827 N/A
Directly elected NA seats from Islamabad 3 0 3

Government approval rating

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister's overall performance since 18 August 2018.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link Approve Neutral Disapprove DK/NA Strongly
approve 		Approve Neutral Disapprove Strongly
disapprove 		DK/NA Net Margin of error Sample
size
Gallup Pakistan 21 February 2023 [1] 32% N/A 65% 3% 11% 21% N/A 27% 38% 3% -33% ±3 - 5% 1,760
NA 11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
Gallup Pakistan 4 April 2022 PDF 46% N/A 54% N/A N/A -8% ±3 - 5% ~800
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 36% 14% 48% 3% 15% 21% 14% 18% 30% 3% -12% ±3 - 5% 5,688
Gallup Pakistan 4 September 2021 PDF 48% N/A 45% 7% N/A +3% ±3 - 5% ~1,200
Gallup Pakistan 19 August 2020 PDF 38% 30% 31% 2% 22% 16% 30% 13% 18% 2% +7% ±3 - 5% 1,662
IPOR (IRI) 13 August 2020 PDF 38% N/A 54% 7% 16% 22% N/A 17% 37% 7% -16% ±2.18% 2,024
Gallup Pakistan 15 February 2020 PDF 32% N/A 66% 1% 8% 24% N/A 19% 47% 1% -34% ±3 - 5% 1,208
Gallup Pakistan 30 September 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 15% 32% N/A 16% 37% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% 1,237
Gallup Pakistan 24 June 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 21% 24% N/A 32% 21% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% ~1,400
Gallup Pakistan 29 December 2018 PDF 51% N/A 46% 3% 13% 38% N/A 26% 20% 3% +5% ±2 - 3% ~1,141
IPOR (IRI) 1 December 2018 PDF 47% N/A 27% 26% 17% 30% N/A 18% 9% 26% +20% ±2.17% 2,041
Pulse Consultant 28 November 2018 HTML 51% N/A 30% 19% N/A +21% ±2.07% 2,019
IPOR (IRI) 22 November 2018 PDF 56% N/A 40% 5% 16% 40% N/A 28% 12% 5% +16% ±2.05% 3,991

Notes

  1. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  2. ^ a b c d e f This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References

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