Zapad 2017: Difference between revisions
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'''Zapad 2017''' is a joint strategic exercise of the national defense forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus which is projected for 14th-20th September 2017. According to official data<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-4743276/Pence-Estonia-ease-Russia-fears-Baltic-region.html|title=Pence in Estonia to ease Russia fears in Baltic region|work=Mail Online|access-date=2017-08-06}}</ref>, 13,000 personnel will take part in the exercise at most. |
'''Zapad 2017''' is a joint strategic exercise of the national defense forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus which is projected for 14th-20th September 2017. According to official data<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-4743276/Pence-Estonia-ease-Russia-fears-Baltic-region.html|title=Pence in Estonia to ease Russia fears in Baltic region|work=Mail Online|access-date=2017-08-06}}</ref>, 13,000 personnel will take part in the exercise at most. In contrast to the official data, representatives of some NATO members, such as Estonia, believe that Russia intends to involve some 100,000 soldiers and officers in the exercise <ref>http://www.dw.com/en/what-are-russias-zapad-war-games/a-39702331</ref>. Belarusian independent media cited preparations that Russia’s Defense Ministry will use 4,162 railcars to transport soldiers and military equipment to Belarus during the exercises <ref>http://belarusdigest.com/story/will-russia-occupy-belarus-2017-28101</ref> |
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== General information == |
== General information == |
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Practical deeds within a framework of Zapad 2017 will take place at 6 Belarus training ranges: Lepelsky, Borisovsky, Losvido, Osipovichsky, Ruzhanksy, Dumanovsky and at a terrain near Dretun' settlement<ref name=":2" />. |
Practical deeds within a framework of Zapad 2017 will take place at 6 Belarus training ranges: Lepelsky, Borisovsky, Losvido, Osipovichsky, Ruzhanksy, Dumanovsky and at a terrain near Dretun' settlement<ref name=":2" />. |
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== Opinions and speculations == |
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Due to an increasing number of unannounced military exercises <ref>http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-air-raid-drill-russia-45000-troops-150-aircraft-planes-helicopters-a7570811.html</ref>, the "lack of transparency" <ref>http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-ukraine-idUSKCN10N2AO</ref> in Russian military exercises there is a number of theories regarding the true goals and potential outcomes of Zapad-2017": |
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* Attack on Ukraine <ref>http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-russia-getting-ready-to-invade-ukraine-again</ref> |
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* Capture of Suwalki gap, Polish and Lithuanian territories <ref>http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm</ref> |
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* Occupation of Belarus <ref>http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/290720,Russia-may-pose-threat-to-Poland-with-war-games-in-Belarus-expert</ref> |
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The theories are fueled by an aggressive nature of previous Russia Military exercises and exercise gap comparing to NATO: |
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* Simulation of nuclear attack on Sweden <ref>http://www.theweek.co.uk/69308/russia-simulated-nuclear-attack-on-sweden-says-nato</ref> |
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* Simulation of nuclear attack on Poland <ref>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/6480227/Russia-simulates-nuclear-attack-on-Poland.html</ref> |
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* NATO vs. Russia military exercise chart: <ref>http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/the-nato-russia-exercise-gap</ref> |
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== Reaction of the international community == |
== Reaction of the international community == |
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Revision as of 21:17, 7 August 2017
Zapad 2017 is a joint strategic exercise of the national defense forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus which is projected for 14th-20th September 2017. According to official data[1], 13,000 personnel will take part in the exercise at most. In contrast to the official data, representatives of some NATO members, such as Estonia, believe that Russia intends to involve some 100,000 soldiers and officers in the exercise [2]. Belarusian independent media cited preparations that Russia’s Defense Ministry will use 4,162 railcars to transport soldiers and military equipment to Belarus during the exercises [3]
General information
The military exercise aims to check Russia’s and Belarus’s capabilities of providing security of the Union State, its preparedness for repulsing acts of aggression and to advance command and control organizations’ actions compatibility and units’ training standards.CSTO, EEU, CIS and NATO[4] representatives have been invited as observers to Zapad 2017. Also, the Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko invites the U.S. delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe[5].
On July 13 at the meeting of the Russia-NATO Council representatives of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation introduced the information of the exercise Zapad 2017. its objectives, military ranges in use, forces and facilities, number of perssonel and weapon systems. The similar briefing will take place at the OSCE venue. There will be a detailed briefing in Moscow befor the exercise starts[6].
On July 12 in Austria within the framework of the OSCE forum for security cooperation Pavel Muraveiko, Deputy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, gave a briefing on the exercise.
Information about the exercise is being constantly provided in order to prevent possible speculations and allegations concerning the exercise[6].
Grouping and particularities of organization
The exercise has two phases in the territory of the Russian Federation and Belarus. Around 3,000 personnel will come to Belarus[7].
A part of military equipment and personnel of the Western Military District will be used in Zapad 2017. More than 25 aircraft of Russian Aerospace Forces, Air Force and Air Defense of the Republic of Belarus will provide support to ground forces. 680 units of equipment will be involved into the exercise in general.
Practical deeds within a framework of Zapad 2017 will take place at 6 Belarus training ranges: Lepelsky, Borisovsky, Losvido, Osipovichsky, Ruzhanksy, Dumanovsky and at a terrain near Dretun' settlement[7].
Opinions and speculations
Due to an increasing number of unannounced military exercises [8], the "lack of transparency" [9] in Russian military exercises there is a number of theories regarding the true goals and potential outcomes of Zapad-2017":
- Attack on Ukraine [10]
- Capture of Suwalki gap, Polish and Lithuanian territories [11]
- Occupation of Belarus [12]
The theories are fueled by an aggressive nature of previous Russia Military exercises and exercise gap comparing to NATO:
- Simulation of nuclear attack on Sweden [13]
- Simulation of nuclear attack on Poland [14]
- NATO vs. Russia military exercise chart: [15]
Reaction of the international community
Months prior to Zapad 2017, NATO member countries’ officials sounded their concern.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged to make the upcoming exercise as transparent as possible in accordance with provisions of Vienna Document.
President of the Republic of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaite announced that the oncoming exercise is an act of provocation and evidences the intention of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus to initiate a conflict with NATO[16].
''We see that risks are increasing, and we are worried about the upcoming Zapad 2017 exercise, which will deploy a very large and aggressive force on our borders that will very demonstrably be preparing for a war with the West.''
National Security and Defense of Ukraine Secretary Alexander Turchinov , National Defense minister of Poland Antoni Macierewicz[17] and National Defense minister of Lithuania Raimundas Karoblis accused Russia and Belarus of having an intention of occupying a part of Polish and Lithuanian territories in the Suwalki gap region.
The speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andrey Paruby announced that the forces involved into the exercise may invade the territory of Ukraine for sabotage.
The government of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus consider the announcements of the Western world’s authorities to be irrelevant. According to the announcement of Sergey Shoigu, Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation[18]:
''Zapad 2017 exercise is a scheduled defensive event''
Dmitry Mironchik, press secretary of Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed the absence of offensive objectives of Zapad 2017.
''The OSCE states were given the official information about conception and scenario of the exercise, its main objectives, venues, equipment and personnel involved. During the OSCE meeting we highlighted once again that the exercise "Zapad 2017" is entirely of defensive character''
Also there were a number of statements about transparency of the oncoming maneuvers for international observers. The corresponding commentaries were given by the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko:
"We are not hiding and should not hide anything. If NATO representatives want to be present at our drills, you are welcome".
Sergey Shoigu, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation[18]:
"According to the timetable set in international agreements our partners will get more detailed information about this exercise both via diplmatic channels and mass media".
Vladimir Makei, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus:
"I'd like to reiterate that they [drills] will be transparent and open for observers".
The readiness to invite international observers to the exercise Zapad 2017 was confirmed by Alexander Fomin, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. "We will provide the information soon», – commented the Deputy Minister of Defense while answering the question of the information agency "Interfax" about possible time of when the invitations to international observers including those from NATO states will be send.
See also
References
- ^ "Pence in Estonia to ease Russia fears in Baltic region". Mail Online. Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ http://www.dw.com/en/what-are-russias-zapad-war-games/a-39702331
- ^ http://belarusdigest.com/story/will-russia-occupy-belarus-2017-28101
- ^ ERR (2017-07-28). "Belarus invites Estonia to observe Zapad military exercise". ERR. Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ "Лукашенко пригласил американскую делегацию ОБСЕ на учения «Запад-2017»". Белновости (in Russian). 2017-07-10. Retrieved 2017-08-06.
{{cite news}}: zero width joiner character in|title=at position 71 (help) - ^ a b "Грушко: Россия будет пресекать спекуляции НАТО по поводу учений «Запад-2017»" (in Russian). Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ a b "Глава Минобороны Белоруссии: учение "Запад-2017" не направлено против третьих стран". ТАСС (in Russian). Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-air-raid-drill-russia-45000-troops-150-aircraft-planes-helicopters-a7570811.html
- ^ http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-ukraine-idUSKCN10N2AO
- ^ http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-russia-getting-ready-to-invade-ukraine-again
- ^ http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm
- ^ http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/290720,Russia-may-pose-threat-to-Poland-with-war-games-in-Belarus-expert
- ^ http://www.theweek.co.uk/69308/russia-simulated-nuclear-attack-on-sweden-says-nato
- ^ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/6480227/Russia-simulates-nuclear-attack-on-Poland.html
- ^ http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/the-nato-russia-exercise-gap
- ^ Oliphant, Vickiie (2017-02-12). "'Preparing for WAR with the West' Lithuania fears Putin planning to invade Baltic states". Express.co.uk. Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ "Antoni Macierewicz: Ze strony Rosji "napięcie jest nieustanne" - Służby mundurowe - rp.pl". Retrieved 2017-08-06.
- ^ a b "Глава военного ведомства России генерал армии Сергей Шойгу провел в Калининграде выездное заседание Коллегии Министерства обороны : Министерство обороны Российской Федерации". function.mil.ru. Retrieved 2017-08-06.