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2023 Winnipeg South Centre federal by-election

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2023 Winnipeg South Centre federal by-election

← 2021 June 19, 2023 (2023-06-19) 45th →

Riding of Winnipeg South Centre
Turnout36.82%
  First party Second party Third party
 
LPC
CPC
NDP
Candidate Ben Carr Damir Stipanovic Julia Riddell
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Popular vote 14,278 6,100 3,778
Percentage 55.49% 23.70% 14.68%
Swing Increase 9.94% Decrease 4.11% Decrease 5.95%

MP before election

Jim Carr
Liberal

Elected MP

Ben Carr
Liberal

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Winnipeg South Centre in Manitoba on June 19, 2023, following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr.[1]

The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Oxford and Portage—Lisgar.[2]

Background

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Constituency

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The district is an urban constituency based in the city of Winnipeg.

Representation

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Winnipeg South Centre has been a reliable Liberal seat since 1988, apart from 2011 to 2015 when it was held by Conservative Joyce Bateman.[3]

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre was vacated on December 12, 2022 following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr.[4] Carr had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Joyce Bateman, and had been battling multiple myeloma and kidney failure since 2019. Carr also defeated Bateman in rematches in 2019 and 2021.

Campaign

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Candidates

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Jim Carr's son Ben Carr, an educator and former staffer to Mélanie Joly, won the Liberal nomination for the by-election.[5][6][7] Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins briefly ran for the nomination before withdrawing and throwing her support behind Carr.[8][9]

The Conservatives nominated Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller and member of the Royal Canadian Air Force Reserve.[7]

After previously running in the same riding in the 2021 federal election, NDP candidate Julia Riddell, a clinical psychologist, and Green candidate Doug Hemmerling, a local educator, won their respective parties' nominations for the by-election.[7]

The People's Party of Canada chose former DJ Tylor Baer to be their candidate. He contested Brandon—Souris for the party in 2021.[10]

The Rhinoceros Party chose party leader Sébastien CoRhino to be their candidate.[11]

The Longest Ballot Committee chose Winnipeg South Centre as its target for this group of by-elections; the group protests first-past-the-post voting by registering large numbers of independent candidates in one riding in an election or group of by-elections.[12] Forty-two people, including the above-mentioned Sébastien CoRhino, ran under its auspices, while Tait Palsson, who was not involved with the group, also ran an independent campaign. The forty-eight candidates in this by-election are the most ever to contest a federal election in Canada.[13]

Polling

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link LPC CPC NDP PPC GPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research June 14, 2023 HTML 47 28 16 2 2 1 4 ±4.7 pp 430 IVR
49 29 16 2 2 1

Results

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Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Winnipeg South Centre
Death of Jim Carr
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Ben Carr 14,278 55.49 +9.94
Conservative Damir Stipanovic 6,100 23.70 -4.11
New Democratic Julia Riddell 3,778 14.68 -5.95
Green Doug Hemmerling 698 2.71 -0.04
People's Tylor Baer 324 1.26 -1.51
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 55 0.21
Independent Tait Palsson 52 0.20
Independent Jevin David Carroll 36 0.14
Independent John Dale 29 0.11
Independent Glen MacDonald 27 0.10
Independent Connie Lukawski 24 0.09
Independent Paul Stewart 22 0.09
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski 19 0.07
Independent Mark Dejewski 18 0.07
Independent Stella Galas 16 0.06
Independent Demetrios Karavas 16 0.06
Independent Myriam Beaulieu 14 0.05
Independent Christopher Clacio 14 0.05
Independent Alain Bourgault 13 0.05
Independent Martin "Acetaria Caesar" Jubinville 13 0.05
Independent Krzysztof Krzywinski 13 0.05
Independent Alain Lamontagne 11 0.04
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel 11 0.04
Independent Jordan Wong 11 0.04
Independent Line Bélanger 10 0.04
Independent Andrew Kozakewich 10 0.04
Independent Eliana Rosenblum 10 0.04
Independent Gerrit Dogger 9 0.03
Independent Julie St-Amand 9 0.03
Independent Alexandra Engering 8 0.03
Independent Anthony Hamel 8 0.03
Independent Darcy Justin Vanderwater 8 0.03
Independent Roger Sherwood 7 0.03
Independent Pascal St-Amand 7 0.03
Independent Dji-Pé Frazer 6 0.02
Independent Daniel Gagnon 6 0.02
Independent Spencer Rocchi 6 0.02
Independent Mário Stocco 6 0.02
Independent Manon Marie Lili Desbiens 5 0.02
Independent Ysack Émile Dupont 5 0.02
Independent Yusuf Nasihi 5 0.02
Independent Jaël Champagne Gareau 4 0.02
Independent Donovan Eckstrom 3 0.01
Independent Ryan Huard 2 0.01
Independent Lorant Polya 2 0.01
Independent Benjamin Teichman 2 0.01
Independent Gavin Vanderwater 2 0.01
Independent Saleh Waziruddin 1 0.00
Total valid votes 25,733 99.52
Total rejected ballots 125 0.48 -0.26
Turnout 25,858 36.82 -32.79
Eligible voters 70,230
Liberal hold Swing +7.02
Source: Elections Canada[14]

2021 result

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2021 Canadian federal election: Winnipeg South Centre
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Jim Carr 22,214 45.55 +0.54 $84,273.45
Conservative Joyce Bateman 13,566 27.82 −1.89 $83,919.18
New Democratic Julia Riddell 10,064 20.64 +2.94 $12,522.59
People's Chase Wells 1,352 2.77 +1.65 $1,885.74
Green Douglas Hemmerling 1,341 2.75 −3.51 $21,799.84
Communist Cam Scott 234 0.48 N/A N/A
Total valid votes/expense limit 48,771 99.26   $106,382.19
Total rejected ballots 364 0.74 +0.22
Turnout 49,135 69.60 -1.37
Eligible voters 70,592
Liberal hold Swing +1.22
Source: Elections Canada[15][16]

References

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  1. ^ "Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, resigning from Parliament". CTVNews. February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  2. ^ "4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  3. ^ Kives, Bartley (January 2, 2023). "Ben Carr, son of late Liberal MP, mulls following in father's footsteps in Winnipeg South Centre". CBC News.
  4. ^ Aiello, Rachel (December 12, 2022). "Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr dies". CTV News. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  5. ^ Kives, Bartley (January 2, 2023). "Ben Carr, son of late Liberal MP, mulls following in father's footsteps in Winnipeg South Centre". CBC News. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  6. ^ "Son of late MP Jim Carr to seek Liberal party nomination to run in Winnipeg riding". CTV News. February 2, 2023. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  7. ^ a b c Kives, Bartley (April 28, 2023). "Candidate field almost set for Winnipeg South Centre byelection". CBC News. Retrieved May 2, 2023.
  8. ^ Froese, Ian (January 11, 2023). "Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins seeks federal Liberal nomination in byelection". CBC News. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  9. ^ "Sherri Rollins bows out of bid for Liberal nomination to replace late Winnipeg MP". Global News. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
  10. ^ Modified, Colin Slark Posted: Last (August 23, 2021). "Aug 2021: Former DJ, 22, running for People's Party to fight for personal freedoms". Brandon Sun. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  11. ^ Kives, Bartley (September 3, 2021). "Rhino Party charges at broken Liberal promise by signing up independents to run in Manitoba riding". CBC News.
  12. ^ Unger, Danton (May 25, 2023). "Group of political activists plan to flood by-election ballot in Winnipeg". CTV News Winnipeg. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  13. ^ Froese, Ian (June 14, 2023). "Voters will choose from record-setting 48 names in Winnipeg South Centre federal byelection ballot". CBC News. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
  14. ^ "June 19, 2023, by-elections—Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  15. ^ "forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 23, 2022.
  16. ^ "Candidate Campaign Returns". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 13, 2022.