2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

No later than August–November 2021
All 71 seats in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (plus overhang and leveling seats) 36+ seats needed for a majority
Leader Manuela Schwesig Leif-Erik Holm Party SPD AfD Leader's seat – – Last election 26 seats, 30.6% 18 seats, 20.8%   Leader Michael Sack Simone Oldenburg Party CDU Left Leader's seat – List Last election 16 seats, 19.0% 11 seats, 13.2%
Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig SPD

The 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election will be held no later than August–November 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The current government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.

Election date

The Landtag is elected for a period of five years in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. An election may be held between 58 and 61 months after the first sitting of the previous Landtag. As the 7th Landtag first sat on 4 October 2016, the election must be held between 4 August to 4 November 2021. It must take place on a Sunday.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 36 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 35 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 71 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Landtag.

Background

Main article: 2016 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election

In the previous election held on 4 September 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 30.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.0 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing second with 20.8%. The CDU won 19.0%, a loss of 4.0 points, while The Left won 13.2%, a loss of 5.2 points.

The SPD–CDU coalition which had governed since 2006 retained its majority and was renewed for a third term.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Name			Ideology	Lead candidate	Leader(s)	2016 result
						Votes (%)	Seats
bgcolor=Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color |	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy		Manuela Schwesig	30.6%	26 / 71
bgcolor=Template:Alternative for Germany/meta/color |	AfD	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland	German nationalism Right-wing populism		Leif-Erik Holm	20.8%	18 / 71
bgcolor=Template:Christian Democratic Union of Germany/meta/color |	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Michael Sack	Michael Sack	18.0%	16 / 71
bgcolor=Template:The Left (Germany)/meta/color |	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Simone Oldenburg	Torsten Koplin Wenke Brüdgam	13.2%	11 / 71

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 7 August 2020, the state CDU elected Michael Sack, district administrator of Vorpommern-Greifswald, as its new leader. He was also selected as the party's lead candidate for the 2021 state election.

On 28 January 2021, parliamentary group leader Simone Oldenburg was nominated as lead candidate for The Left.

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	AfD	CDU	Linke	Grüne	FDP	Others	Lead
			style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Alternative for Germany/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union of Germany/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:The Left (Germany)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Free Democratic Party (Germany)/meta/color;"|
Forsa	12–15 Jan 2021	1,002	26	14	24	16	10	3	7	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Infratest dimap	18–21 Nov 2020	1,000	27	15	27	12	10	3	6	Tie
Infratest dimap	3–6 Jun 2020	1,004	24	15	29	13	10	4	5	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Forsa	2–10 Jan 2020	1,002	19	19	20	14	13	5	10	style="background:Template:Christian Democratic Union of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Forsa	18–23 Sep 2019	1,002	22	20	21	12	12	5	8	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Forsa	4–11 Jan 2019	1,007	22	18	22	16	10	4	8	Tie
Forsa	24 May–28 Jun 2018	1,002	25	22	18	16	8	4	7	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Forsa	2–11 Jan 2018	1,001	28	19	20	15	5	5	8	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
INSA	30 Jun–14 Jul 2017	1,608	31.5	20.5	22.0	13.5	4.5	3.5	4.5	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9.5
Forsa	9–16 Jan 2017	1,002	32	18	21	13	4	4	8	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11
2016 state election	4 Sep 2016	–	30.6	20.8	18.0	13.2	4.8	3.0	5.6	style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9.8