Opinion polling for the 2019 Finnish parliamentary election

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In the run up to the 2019 parliamentary elections in Finland, various organizations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Finland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 19 April 2015, to the present day.

Graphical summary[edit]

By party[edit]

5 poll average of finnish opinion polls from April 2015 to the election 2019. Each line corresponds to a political party.

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The table uses the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if that date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

The Sipilä Cabinet is composed of the top three parties from the previous election: Centre (Kesk), National Coalition (Kok) and Finns (PS) parties. But after the split of the Finns Party, Blue Reform (Sin) took the party's place in the Sipilä Cabinet.

Date Polling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KD SIN Others Lead Govt-Opposition
18 Feb–15 Mar Kantar TNS 14.3 18.1 11.1 21.0 14.0 8.9 4.4 4.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 (33.6 – 63.6)
8 Mar The Sipilä Cabinet announces its resignation due to failed health care reform
6 Feb–5 Mar Taloustutkimus 14.1 16.2 13.3 21.3 13.7 8.9 4.7 3.5 1.8 2.5 5.1 32.1 – 65.4
18 Feb–3 Mar Tietoykkönen 14.1 18.1 11.2 21.3 13.2 9.0 4.1 4.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 34.5 – 62.9
14 Jan–14 Feb Kantar TNS 14.7 18.6 11.4 20.8 13.6 8.7 4.3 4.0 1.0 2.9 2.2 34.3 – 62.8
14 Jan–5 Feb Taloustutkimus 15.6 17.3 12.0 20.1 14.6 8.6 4.0 3.6 1.4 2.7 2.8 34.3 – 62.9
14–28 Jan Tietoykkönen 14.4 19.7 9.9 21.0 13.0 8.9 4.2 4.3 2.1 2.5 1.3 36.2 – 61.3
13 Dec–11 Jan Kantar TNS 15.6 19.5 9.7 20.9 12.9 9.4 4.3 4.0 1.1 2.6 1.4 36.2 – 61.2
10 Dec–8 Jan Taloustutkimus 16.1 19.6 10.2 21.2 13.6 9.5 2.5 4.2 1.0 2.1 1.6 36.7 – 61.2
2018
5–18 Dec Tietoykkönen 15.5 19.6 9.7 20.7 12.9 9.1 4.1 3.9 1.8 2.7 1.1 36.9 – 60.4
13 Nov–12 Dec Kantar TNS 15.6 19.4 8.6 21.4 13.4 9.6 4.4 4.1 1.2 2.3 2.0 36.2 – 61.5
12 Nov–4 Dec Taloustutkimus 17.0 19.1 8.1 21.5 13.9 8.5 4.0 4.1 1.5 2.3 2.4 37.6 – 60.1
14–23 Nov Tietoykkönen 15.1 19.8 8.4 21.4 13.6 9.3 4.5 3.7 2.2 2.0 1.6 37.1 – 60.9
15 Oct–12 Nov Kantar TNS 15.4 19.7 8.7 22.4 12.5 9.7 4.4 4.0 1.2 2.0 2.7 36.3 – 61.7
3 Oct–6 Nov Taloustutkimus 16.5 20.2 9.8 22.7 11.3 9.2 4.3 3.5 1.1 1.4 2.5 37.8 – 60.8
3 Nov Pekka Haavisto is elected as the interim leader of the Green League
12–30 Oct Tietoykkönen 15.2 19.9 7.7 22.0 12.9 9.5 4.2 3.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 37.4 – 60.1
24 Oct Touko Aalto announces his resignation from the Green League's leadership
17 Sep–11 Oct Kantar TNS 15.7 19.6 9.1 22.0 12.0 9.8 4.4 3.8 1.4 2.2 2.4 36.7 – 61.1
10 Sep–2 Oct Taloustutkimus 17.6 18.9 9.3 22.6 11.6 9.8 3.7 4.1 1.1 1.3 3.7 37.6 – 61.1
14–27 Sep Tietoykkönen 15.1 19.9 7.9 22.2 12.3 9.5 4.3 3.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 37.5 – 60.1
20 Aug–14 Sep Kantar TNS 15.5 19.7 8.7 21.4 12.9 9.6 4.5 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.7 36.8 – 61.0
13 Aug–4 Sep Taloustutkimus 17.8 19.0 9.4 20.3 12.6 9.1 4.3 3.5 1.6 2.4 1.3 38.4 – 59.2
13–25 Aug Tietoykkönen 15.5 19.8 8.0 21.9 13.1 9.1 4.2 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 37.4 – 60.0
16 Jul–16 Aug Kantar TNS 15.5 20.2 7.9 21.7 13.7 9.6 4.3 4.1 1.2 2.0 1.5 36.9 – 61.3
9 Jul–7 Aug Taloustutkimus 17.8 19.8 8.7 21.2 13.6 7.7 4.3 3.8 0.8 2.3 1.4 38.4 – 59.3
11 Jun–12 Jul Kantar TNS 15.3 20.2 7.8 22.1 13.2 9.6 4.3 4.2 1.3 2.0 1.9 36.8 – 61.2
6 Jun–3 Jul Taloustutkimus 16.6 19.7 10.3 20.3 13.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 1.1 2.6 0.6 37.4 – 60.0
6–26 Jun Tietoykkönen 15.9 19.7 7.8 20.2 13.9 9.4 4.6 3.9 2.6 2.0 0.5 38.2 – 59.8
14 May–10 Jun Kantar TNS 15.8 19.7 8.0 21.6 13.5 9.2 4.5 3.9 1.7 2.1 1.9 37.3 – 60.7
2 May–5 Jun Taloustutkimus 17.6 19.3 8.3 20.0 14.4 8.9 3.9 3.4 1.7 2.5 0.7 38.6 – 58.9
18–31 May Tietoykkönen 15.1 19.5 7.9 21.2 13.1 9.0 4.8 4.3 2.5 2.6 1.7 37.1 – 60.3
16 Apr–11 May Kantar TNS 15.7 20.5 7.7 21.2 14.2 8.7 4.4 3.8 1.7 2.1 0.7 37.9 – 60.0
19 Apr–2 May Tietoykkönen 15.9 19.5 8.0 21.8 13.2 8.7 4.6 4.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 37.5 – 60.3
3–26 Apr Taloustutkimus 17.0 20.2 8.5 20.0 14.9 9.1 3.7 3.3 1.5 1.8 0.2 38.7 – 59.5
19 Mar–12 Apr Kantar TNS 15.7 20.6 8.1 21.4 14.0 8.9 4.2 3.5 1.6 2.0 0.8 37.9 – 60.1
1–27 Mar Taloustutkimus 16.3 21.5 9.2 20.2 14.2 9.0 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 39.3 – 59.4
16–26 Mar Tietoykkönen 16.1 19.9 8.2 21.0 13.3 8.7 4.4 3.9 2.0 2.5 1.1 38.0 – 59.5
19 Feb–15 Mar Kantar TNS 15.9 21.1 8.5 20.8 14.5 8.5 4.1 3.2 1.4 2.0 0.3 38.4 – 59.6
7–28 Feb Taloustutkimus 17.0 20.0 8.5 21.0 14.5 8.9 2.9 3.3 1.6 2.3 1.0 38.6 – 59.1
14–26 Feb Tietoykkönen 15.5 20.5 8.7 19.6 13.6 8.8 4.8 3.9 2.3 2.3 0.9 38.3 – 59.4
22 Jan–15 Feb Kantar TNS 16.3 21.7 8.6 19.0 14.4 9.1 4.2 3.4 1.3 2.0 2.7 39.3 – 58.7
28 Dec–6 Feb Taloustutkimus 17.4 20.8 9.6 18.7 14.0 8.1 4.6 3.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 39.8 – 58.2
19–29 Jan Tietoykkönen 15.4 20.9 8.2 19.2 14.5 8.6 4.6 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.7 39.0 – 59.0
28 Jan Sauli Niinistö wins the presidential election
12 Dec–18 Jan Kantar TNS 15.6 21.9 8.1 19.0 15.5 8.8 4.4 3.4 1.5 1.8 2.9 39.0 – 59.2
2017
29 Nov–27 Dec Taloustutkimus 17.8 19.8 8.6 17.8 14.0 8.8 4.6 4.0 2.3 2.3 2.0 39.9 – 57.8
8–18 Dec Tietoykkönen 16.2 20.8 7.8 20.1 13.7 9.0 4.8 4.1 1.8 1.7 0.7 38.7 – 59.5
14 Nov–10 Dec Kantar TNS 14.8 22.2 8.0 19.0 15.4 9.3 4.4 3.3 1.6 2.0 3.2 38.6 – 59.4
1–28 Nov Taloustutkimus 17.4 22.3 8.4 19.7 14.2 8.0 3.5 3.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 40.8 – 57.4
16 Oct–13 Nov Kantar TNS 15.1 21.4 8.7 19.0 15.7 8.8 4.4 3.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 38.1 – 59.9
4–31 Oct Taloustutkimus 17.4 22.8 6.9 18.4 14.0 9.0 4.9 3.4 1.3 1.9 4.4 41.5 – 56.6
18 Sep–14 Oct Kantar TNS 15.4 21.9 9.3 18.1 16.1 8.2 4.4 3.3 1.3 2.0 3.8 38.6 – 59.4
11 Sep–3 Oct Taloustutkimus 15.8 21.7 9.9 17.3 16.6 8.3 3.5 3.9 1.5 1.5 4.4 39.0 – 59.5
21 Aug–19 Sep Kantar TNS 16.1 21.1 9.2 17.8 16.7 7.9 4.5 3.2 1.3 2.2 3.3 38.5 – 59.3
21 Aug–5 Sep Taloustutkimus 16.2 20.8 10.3 15.6 17.8 8.2 4.5 3.3 1.4 1.9 3.0 38.4 – 59.7
17 Jul–18 Aug Kantar TNS 17.3 20.7 7.0 17.3 17.5 8.4 4.5 3.5 1.7 2.1 3.2 39.7 – 58.2
24 Jul–15 Aug Taloustutkimus 17.3 20.8 8.8 15.9 17.6 7.7 4.8 3.7 1.6 1.8 3.2 39.7 – 58.5
26 Jun–18 Jul Taloustutkimus 16.7 20.4 8.1 18.5 16.0 9.2 4.7 3.9 0.7 1.8 1.9 37.8 – 60.4
19 Jun–14 Jul Kantar TNS 16.4 21.0 6.3 19.6 15.5 8.9 4.4 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.4 39.9 – 58.0
13–20 Jun Taloustutkimus 17.0 21.3 9.7 17.1 15.1 8.0 4.0 3.7 2.3 1.8 4.2 40.6 – 57.6
17 Jun Touko Aalto wins the leadership of the Green League
22 May–16 Jun Kantar TNS 16.8 21.2 6.1 19.0 14.9 8.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 1.9 2.2 41.9 – 56.2
Date Polling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KD Others Lead Govt-Opposition
13 Jun The Finns Party splits and Blue Reform continues working in the Sipilä Cabinet
12 Jun–13 Jun Tietoykkönen 17.0 20.2 10.4 17.8 14.1 9.1 5.5 4.2 1.7 2.4 47.6 – 50.7
10 Jun Jussi Halla-aho wins the leadership of the Finns Party
10 May–6 Jun Taloustutkimus 18.4 20.5 9.0 17.7 15.1 8.8 4.8 3.7 2.0 2.1 47.9 – 50.1
24 Apr–19 May Kantar TNS 17.7 20.6 9.4 18.7 14.3 8.6 4.6 3.7 2.4 1.9 47.7 – 49.9
10 Apr–9 May Taloustutkimus 18.4 21.1 9.6 18.6 14.6 7.7 4.5 3.6 1.9 2.5 49.1 – 49.0
9 Apr Finnish municipal elections were held
16 Jan–11 Feb TNS Gallup 19.8 18.4 9.1 21.6 11.1 9.1 4.8 3.5 2.6 1.8 47.3 – 50.1
19 Dec–11 Jan TNS Gallup 19.9 18.7 8.6 21.7 12.1 8.5 4.4 3.6 2.5 1.8 47.2 – 50.3
2016
14 Nov–08 Dec TNS Gallup 20.8 18.4 9.9 20.8 11.2 8.2 4.6 3.5 2.6 0 49.1 – 48.3
2–29 Nov Taloustutkimus 20.4 18.9 8.5 21.1 12.6 8.6 4.0 3.6 2.3 0.7 47.8 – 49.9
17 Oct–11 Nov TNS Gallup 20.9 18.6 10.1 20.4 11.6 7.9 4.6 3.5 2.4 0.5 49.6 – 48.0
5 Oct–1 Nov Taloustutkimus 19.6 18.8 8.5 21.2 13.6 8.7 4.0 3.4 2.2 1.6 47.1 – 50.9
19 Sep–14 Oct TNS Gallup 20.9 17.7 9.7 21.3 11.8 7.9 4.7 3.5 2.4 0.4 48.3 – 49.2
12 Sep–04 Oct Taloustutkimus 20.5 17.1 9.2 20.5 14.0 8.8 4.3 3.8 1.8 0 46.8 – 51.4
22 Aug–15 Sep TNS Gallup 20.9 17.9 9.6 20.2 12.6 8.6 4.6 3.3 2.3 0.7 48.4 – 49.3
15 Aug–06 Sep Taloustutkimus 20.7 17.7 8.4 20.0 13.6 9.3 4.7 3.6 2.0 0.7 46.8 – 51.2
18 Jul–18 Aug TNS Gallup 20.6 17.3 9.5 19.1 12.9 9.6 4.8 3.7 2.5 1.5 47.4 – 50.1
11 Jul–09 Aug Taloustutkimus 21.8 17.6 7.6 18.9 13.7 9.8 4.3 4.3 2.0 2.9 47.0 – 50.8
20 Jun–15 Jul TNS Gallup 21.1 17.8 9.5 18.7 13.3 9.0 4.9 3.4 2.3 2.4 48.4 – 49.3
08 Jun–05 Jul Taloustutkimus 21.1 18.6 8.6 18.2 14.1 9.2 4.3 3.6 2.3 2.5 48.3 – 49.4
16 May–16 Jun TNS Gallup 20.9 17.0 9.1 20.6 13.6 8.2 4.7 3.7 2.2 0.3 47.0 – 50.8
12 Jun Anna-Maja Henriksson wins the leadership of the Swedish People's Party
11 Jun Petteri Orpo wins the leadership of the National Coalition Party
9 May–7 Jun Taloustutkimus 20.2 17.7 9.0 20.1 14.8 8.3 4.2 3.5 2.2 0.1 46.9 – 50.9
6 Jun Li Andersson wins the leadership of the Left Alliance
12–14 May TNS Gallup 20.7 17.7 9.3 22.0 11.4 9.0 4.3 3.4 2.2 1.3 47.7 – 50.1
4 Apr–3 May Taloustutkimus 20.4 17.0 8.5 21.5 13.5 8.5 4.5 3.6 2.5 1.1 45.9 – 51.6
14 Mar–11 Apr TNS Gallup 20.6 17.1 9.7 21.7 11.7 8.7 4.4 3.7 2.4 1.1 47.4 – 50.2
7–30 Mar Taloustutkimus 21.7 17.1 9.5 20.3 12.5 8.3 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.4 48.3 – 49.4
15 Feb–11 Mar TNS Gallup 21.5 17.4 10.2 21.4 10.9 8.3 4.5 3.5 2.3 0.1 49.1 – 48.6
3 Feb–1 Mar Taloustutkimus 20.7 16.9 9.0 22.9 10.7 8.9 4.5 3.9 2.5 2.2 46.6 – 50.9
18 Jan–14 Feb TNS Gallup 21.4 18.0 9.9 21.2 10.8 8.5 4.3 3.7 2.2 0.2 49.3 – 48.5
11 Jan–2 Feb Taloustutkimus 20.9 17.3 9.8 21.5 12.3 8.6 4.1 3.4 2.1 0.6 48.0 – 49.9
14 Dec–14 Jan TNS Gallup 19.7 17.9 9.6 22.8 11.1 7.9 4.5 4.2 2.3 3.1 47.2 – 50.5
2015
7–29 Dec Taloustutkimus 21.4 18.7 8.9 22.7 11.7 7.3 3.9 3.4 2.0 1.3 49.0 – 49.0
16 Nov–10 Dec TNS Gallup 20.9 17.7 10.8 21.1 11.3 8.4 4.3 3.5 2.0 0.2 49.4 – 48.6
9 Nov–1 Dec Taloustutkimus 21.6 18.3 8.9 21.0 12.6 8.1 4.6 3.5 1.4 0.6 48.8 – 49.8
19 Oct–12 Nov TNS Gallup 21.6 18.4 11.0 19.6 11.6 8.0 4.3 3.5 2.0 2.0 51.0 – 47.0
12 Oct–3 Nov Taloustutkimus 21.7 18.3 9.8 20.7 12.2 7.4 4.4 3.4 2.1 1.0 49.8 – 48.1
14 Sep–16 Oct TNS Gallup 22.2 17.7 11.4 18.3 11.5 8.6 4.4 3.9 2.0 3.9 51.3 – 46.7
7 Sep–6 Oct Taloustutkimus 21.7 18.0 10.7 18.3 12.7 8.3 4.8 4.0 1.5 3.7 50.4 – 48.1
10 Aug–10 Sep TNS Gallup 22.3 18.0 15.6 15.0 11.1 7.8 4.8 3.5 1.9 4.3 55.9 – 42.2
10 Aug–1 Sep Taloustutkimus 23.0 18.9 15.0 14.4 12.4 7.6 4.2 2.9 1.6 4.1 56.9 – 41.5
28 Aug Sari Essayah wins the leadership of the Christian Democrats
13 Jul–7 Aug TNS Gallup 23.2 17.6 16.7 14.2 11.4 7.2 4.7 3.1 1.9 5.6 57.5 – 40.6
7 Jul–4 Aug Taloustutkimus 23.1 18.2 15.6 14.5 12.7 7.8 3.9 2.7 1.5 4.9 56.9 – 41.6
15 Jun–9 Jul TNS Gallup 21.9 18.2 17.6 14.7 9.8 7.9 4.5 3.3 2.1 3.7 57.7 – 40.2
3 Jun–1 Jul Taloustutkimus 22.7 17.3 15.6 14.6 11.5 8.4 4.5 3.4 2.0 5.4 55.6 – 42.4
18 May–11 Jun TNS Gallup 21.0 18.5 18.0 14.8 10.0 7.8 4.5 3.2 2.2 2.5 57.5 – 40.4
4 May–2 Jun Taloustutkimus 23.1 16.7 17.5 15.0 10.5 7.5 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.6 57.3 – 40.6
20 Apr–15 May TNS Gallup 21.1 18.0 19.2 15.1 9.3 6.8 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.9 58.3 – 39.2
19 Apr 2015 Election Results 21.1 18.2 17.7 16.5 8.5 7.1 4.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 57.0 – 40.5

Seats[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 101 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Finnish Parliament.

101 seats needed for majority
Date Polling Firm KESK KOK PS SDP VIHR VAS SFP KD SIN Others
5 Mar 2019 Taloustutkimus[note 1] 36 41 21 49 26 15 7 4
5 Feb 2019 Taloustutkimus[note 2] 38 39 20 49 26 16 7 3 1
10 Jan 2019 Taloustutkimus[note 3] 42 43 15 47 25 15 7 5
2015 Election - 49 37 38 34 15 12 9 5 0 1

Preferred Prime Minister polling[edit]

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister.

Date Polling Firm Juha Sipilä Petteri Orpo Antti Rinne Pekka Haavisto Touko Aalto Ville Niinistö Jussi Halla-aho Timo Soini Li Andersson Paavo Väyrynen Anna-Maja Henriksson Sampo Terho Sari Essayah
17 Feb 2019 Kantar TNS 10 15 12 18 9 8 1
5 Jan 2019 Taloustutkimus 13 16 12 22 5 5 1 1 4
12-17 Jan 2018 Kantar TNS 12 17 8 3 9 13 2
7 Nov 2017 Taloustutkimus 15 25 8 8 7 12
28–29 Jun 2017 Taloustutkimus 21 19 11 4 13 6 1 3
19–28 Jun 2017 Taloustutkimus 26.4 30.6 15.3 8.3 8.3 6.9
19–31 Dec 2016 Taloustutkimus 25.4 19.7 15.5 22.5 7.0 7.0 2.8

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.
  2. ^ Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.
  3. ^ Counted based on six most recent polls. Åland's single MP is not included.