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Post-election pendulum for the 2015 Queensland state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015.[1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 0.82
Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson ALP 1.62
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 1.65
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 1.73
Pumicestone Rick Williams ALP 2.08
Mount Coot-tha Steven Miles ALP 2.59
Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 2.76
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.12
Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP 3.25
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 4.25
Greenslopes Joseph Kelly ALP 4.25
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 4.80
Mirani Jim Pearce ALP 4.82
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP 4.98
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 5.54
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 5.69
Fairly safe
Kallangur Shane King ALP 6.13
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 6.14
Cook Billy Gordon ALP 6.77
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 6.99
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 7.06
Sunnybank Peter Russo ALP 7.19
Murrumba Chris Whiting ALP 7.35
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 7.58
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 7.68
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 7.71
Cairns Rob Pyne ALP 8.45
Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP 9.59
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 9.80
Safe
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 10.10
Logan Linus Power ALP 10.82
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 11.25
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP v IND 11.89
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 11.91
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 12.39
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.76
Yeerongpilly Mark Bailey ALP 13.30
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 13.33
South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 13.79
Rockhampton William Byrne ALP 13.87
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 15.90
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.43
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 25.12
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 25.95
LIBERAL NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP v ONP 0.22
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith LNP 0.23
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 0.38
Mansfield Ian Walker LNP 0.55
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.41
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 1.61
Albert Mark Boothman LNP 1.67
Everton Tim Mander LNP 1.77
Redlands Matt McEachan LNP 2.23
Gaven Sid Cramp LNP 2.24
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 2.62
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 2.88
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 3.24
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 3.82
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 5.17
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 5.23
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 5.45
Fairly safe
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 6.16
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.62
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP v PUP 6.67
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 6.73
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 6.80
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 7.06
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 7.10
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP 7.19
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 7.21
Beaudesert Jon Krause LNP 7.53
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 8.21
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 8.53
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP v GRN 8.62
Toowoomba South John McVeigh LNP 8.89
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.27
Safe
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 10.09
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.97
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 11.07
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 12.16
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 12.93
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 13.16
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 15.43
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 16.28
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 19.20
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 19.21
CROSSBENCH SEATS
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND v LNP 14.89
Dalrymple Shane Knuth KAP v LNP 15.10
Mount Isa Rob Katter KAP v LNP 15.19

References

  1. ^ Green, Antony. "Final Queensland Election Results, Preferences and a New Pendulum". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
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