Roy Amara

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Roy Amara
Born Roy Charles Amara
(1925-04-07)7 April 1925
Died 31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was a researcher, scientist and past president of the Institute for the Future. He also worked at the Stanford Research Institute. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering.[3]

Amara's law[edit]

He is possibly best known for a statement, paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely, which has become known as Amara's law:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[4]

Selected bibliography[edit]




  1. ^ "Amara, Roy". Library of Congress. Retrieved 18 February 2015. data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25) 
  2. ^ Pescovitz, David (3 January 2008). "Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP". BoingBoing. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  3. ^ "Roy Amara (biography)". University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  4. ^ "Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law". PC Magazine. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  5. ^ Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography