Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/February

February[edit]

Week 1[edit]

11P.NONAME [09F][edit]

96P.INVEST[edit]

NRL: 9.2ºS 176.6ºE 15kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 22:15, 1 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance 09F[edit]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1004 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10S 177W AT 312100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IN THE AREA AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

– Chacor 08:46, 31 January 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 09F[edit]

Marine Bulletin at 800am marks 09F as a Tropical Depression with 1002 hPa - グリフオーザー 08:57, 2 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued by JTWC, first tropical disturbance advisory issued by Nadi - グリフオーザー 05:45, 3 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

11P.NONAME[edit]

35 knots 997 mb - グリフオーザー 01:40, 4 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

97S.INVEST[edit]

6.0ºS 96.0ºE - 15 knots 1006 hPa (NRL)

TCWC Perth Tropical Low[edit]

Tropical Low [1006hpa] near 7S 97E, 580 km north of Cocos Islands

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Sunday : low Monday : low Tuesday : moderate - グリフオーザー 19:00, 3 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

New forecast:
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Monday : low Tuesday : moderate Wednesday : high REMARKS - The low is experiencing unfavourable upper winds that are likely to be maintained for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, and hence it is not likely to develop in that period. The most likely movement of the low is towards the south, and the potential for this system to impact upon the Cocos Islands will be closely monitored. RaNdOm26 06:27, 4 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2[edit]

13S.ENOK [08R][edit]

98S.INVEST[edit]

19.2S 50.6E - 15 kts 1006 hPa -- グリフオーザー 15:50, 5 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: TCFA - グリフオーザー 02:02, 7 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]
An area of convection near 215 nm east of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Deep convection has been persistent over a well-defined low level circulation center. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots with a center pressure of 1000 mb, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to good.

TCFA issued by JTWC. [1] --Irfan Faiz 05:23, 7 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Disturbance 08R[edit]

10 min sustained winds of 25 kts [1001 hPa] - グリフオーザー 22:21, 8 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Dépression Tropicale 08R[edit]

TD now, 30 kt. Forecast peak is 60 kt. – Chacor 14:37, 9 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Odd Metro France named it Enok while being at depression status. - グリフオーザー 15:29, 9 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression Enok[edit]

VOFFA, Madagascar names cyclones west of 55°E, Réunion only have warning responsibility. – Chacor 16:05, 9 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Storm Enok[edit]

18pm UTC: Enok has sustained winds of 50 knots. - グリフオーザー 22:32, 9 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

99P.INVEST/90P[edit]

16.8S 147.2E - 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 15:50, 5 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCWC Brisbane Tropical Low[edit]

Tropical Low [1000 hPa] is centered about 90 km east of Cairns and 85 km northeast of Innisfail and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days while moving away from the coast.
- 09:15, 5 February 2007 (UTC)

Brisbane notes that the low has dissipated. - グリフオーザー 02:00, 7 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

90P.INVEST[edit]

new low develops east of Cairns - グリフオーザー 07:02, 7 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

14S.FAVIO [09R][edit]

91S.INVEST[edit]

7.9S 72.3E 15kts 1006 mb - グリフオーザー 03:19, 10 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 6pm UTC - グリフオーザー 23:53, 11 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]
An area of persistent convection near 9.7ºS 70.4ºE or 190 nm southwest of Diego Garcia. Imagery shows convection flaring near the center of a developing low level circulation center. The disturbance is within low vertical wind shear and favorable upper level diffluence.

Sustained winds near the center was 20 to 25 knots with an estimated center pressure of 1004 mb.

Potential of disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

Zone Perturbée 09-20062007[edit]

Zone of disturbed weather 20kts 1004hpa - グリフオーザー 03:28, 12 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Perturbation Tropicale 09R[edit]

tropical disturbance 25 kts 1002hph - グリフオーザー 17:25, 12 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSIST- ENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 121327Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING AND MARGINAL ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED DUE TO A TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
- SpLo T // 10:43, 13 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

14S.NONAME[edit]

JTWC issues warnings on the system. - グリフオーザー 15:51, 14 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Metro France: Dépression Tropicale 30 knots. forecast peak 70 knots. - グリフオーザー 20:45, 14 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Favio[edit]

35 knots 995 hPa - グリフオーザー 07:42, 15 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Forte Tempete Tropicale Favio[edit]

50 knots 985 hPa - Teddy 06:54, 18 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Favio[edit]

currently 80 kts 955 hPa - グリフオーザー 03:49, 20 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Intense Tropical Cyclone Favio[edit]

Metro France now reports an Intense Tropical Cyclone Favio sustained winds of 90 knots and gusts up to 130 knots. The systems center pressure is 945 hPa.- グリフオーザー 07:21, 20 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Scraping the southern coast of Madagascar on the way to Mozambique. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 09:48, 20 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

The storm is really small if you view from a 2 km zoom in NRL. --Irfan Faiz 11:06, 20 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

125 kt from NRL and

  210300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.7E.
  TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FAVIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
  NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
  10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
  GREATER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CURRENTLY
  HAS A SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED 12-NM ROUND EYE. TC 14S CONTINUES TO
  TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL

--Irfan Faiz 03:41, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Fortunately, it looks like it's weakened a bit. Either way, this thing is a monster. Hopefully it doesn't maintain this intensity into Mozambique. bob rulz 07:13, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Apparently, it will. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 13:16, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Here's a link that could be useful. Particularly, I think the fact that severe flooding persisted prior to the arrival of Favio in Mozambique, and that preparations are being enacted to prevent further losses. Hurricanehink (talk) 16:32, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Landfall, dissipated. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 14:00, 23 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

92P.INVEST[edit]

Just appeared, 16.7S 177.0E. 15 kt, no pressure. --Core desat 20:34, 10 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. --Core desat 04:05, 12 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

93S.INVEST[edit]

17.3S 55.9E, north of Réunion. 15 kt, 1006 mb. - SpLo T // 09:53, 11 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 6pm UTC: -- グリフオーザー 23:55, 11 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Area of convection has developed near 17.3ºS 55.9ºE or 225 nm north of Reunion. imagery shows a developing low level circulation center with weak convective banding evident on the circulation periphery.

Maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots with an estimated center pressure of 1003 mb.

The potential of the disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone remains poor.

gone -- グリフオーザー 00:04, 18 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

94S.INVEST[edit]

94S was at 19S 37E on 12th Feb. The NRL stopped monitoring it on 15th Feb. - グリフオーザー 00:04, 18 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3[edit]

95S.INVEST[edit]

Not sure where 94S went, but 20.3S 41.3E. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 16:50, 17 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 6pm UTC: - グリフオーザー 19:31, 18 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]
An area of convection near 18.8ºS 39.7ºE or 405 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Imagery shows that most of the convection is located to the west of the low level circulation center. The disturbance is within a region of good divergence aloft but moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds are 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1006 mb.

The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

no longer suspected for development and is gone from NRL - グリフオーザー 19:20, 19 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

96S.INVEST[edit]

14.0S, 67.5E. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 16:50, 17 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Global Models: Link - VOFFA

15S.GAMEDE [10R][edit]

97S.INVEST[edit]

NRL: 11.0S 85.1E

TCWC Perth - Tropical Low[edit]

(Central Indian Ocean)
tropical low near 15S 85E is expected to remain west of 90E -- グリフオーザー 06:23, 18 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 6pm UTC: グリフオーザー 19:23, 19 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]
An area of persistent convection near 15.4ºS 78.4ºE or 610 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. Imagery depicts flaring convection over the low level circulation center. Analysis indicates that the area is under subtropical ridge with weak vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds are 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1005 mb.

The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

Tropical Disturbance 10R[edit]

Perturbation tropicale 10R now from MF. – Chacor 14:53, 20 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA. --Core desat 00:59, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Gamede[edit]

10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The center pressure is 993 Hpa. - グリフオーザー 06:59, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 70.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. TC 15S IS EX- PECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSI- FY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD EQUTORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES AN AREA OF IMPROVED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY EAST OF MADAGASCAR. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 13:15, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Gamede[edit]

65 knots with wind gusts up to 90 knots. Center pressure is 967 hPa.
Mauritius issues Cyclone Warning Class II. - グリフオーザー 01:26, 23 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Cyclone Warning Class 3 from Mauritius, Vigilance Cyclone Alert issued by Reunion. - グリフオーザー 19:00, 23 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Red Alert is enforced for Reunion as of 6pm UTC - グリフオーザー 21:24, 24 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

105 knots from NRL and convection has improved near at it's center. --Irfan Faiz 05:22, 26 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

16S.HUMBA [11R][edit]

98S.INVEST[edit]

Tropical Low - TCWC Perth[edit]

10.0ºS 95.0ºE - 1006 hPa
315 km northwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Potential Tuesday = Low Wednesday= High Thursday = High
- グリフオーザー 04:26, 19 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Next advisory to be issued by RSMC Réunion at 1200 UTC. – Chacor 07:18, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued at 0930 UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.4S 89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A 210428Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CREATING VERY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS FARTHER SOUTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING LOW LEVEL ORGAN- IZATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 13:17, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Perturbation Tropicale 11R[edit]

25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, 1001 hPa - グリフオーザー 15:08, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

16S.NONAME[edit]

Warnings begin at 1500 UTC.
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN OPTIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING POLE- WARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 16:11, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Humba[edit]

Forecast to move south and intensify to tropical cyclone. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 14:03, 23 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Forte Tempête Tropicale Humba[edit]

50 knots with wind gusts up to 70 knots - グリフオーザー 18:59, 23 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

99S.INVEST[edit]

18.7ºS-58.8ºE 15 knots 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 07:02, 21 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

gone - グリフオーザー 17:58, 22 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4[edit]

90S.INVEST[edit]

22.0ºS.49.0ºE 15 knots 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 17:58, 22 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

gone RaNdOm26 08:14, 25 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

91P.INVEST[edit]

Finally, a SPac system. 13.4S 162.9E. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 13:46, 24 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Fiji Meteorological Service/Brisbane TCWC

LOW 1003 hPa 11S 162E moving slowly. - グリフオーザー 21:17, 24 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

From 3 day outlook from queensland:

The potential for tropical cyclone development is LOW up to and including Monday, becoming MODERATE on Tuesday and HIGH by Wednesday. RaNdOm26 08:14, 25 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 26/2 0600 UTC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15S 158E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 252312Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMA- TED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 11:02, 26 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Low[edit]

SITUATION At 270000UTC, a tropical low central pressure 998 hPa was centred within 60 nautical miles of 14.5S 153.0E, moving west-southwest at about 5 knots. Position Poor. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours. – Chacor 02:13, 27 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

very good chance for a cyclone forming by the end of today. 134.7.248.129 03:30, 28 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

17S.GEORGE[edit]

92P.INVEST (92S)[edit]

12.0S 135.1E, 15 kt 1006 mbar. - SpLo T {新年快乐!} // 11:00, 26 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

This has appeared on NRL as 92S. It's either an error, or it's moving into the Indian Ocean (or waters considered part of it), though it seems to be over land right now. --Core desat 01:58, 27 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

It's forecast to move into Gulf of Carpentaria, high chance of development into a cyclone by Friday. 134.7.248.129 03:30, 28 February 2007 (UTC)[reply]

It already looks impressive in NRL images, even over land! --Irfan Faiz 05:58, 2 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Low[edit]

Cyclone watch from Daly River Mouth, NT to Mitchell Plateau, WA. Expected Cat 1 cyclone on Sunday as it moves west. – Chacor 13:58, 2 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued at 022300. - SpLo T // 07:08, 3 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KATHERINE, AUSTRALIA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER LAND BUT IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TIMOR SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT MODERATE AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUS- TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

TCFA cancelled, down to POOR. - SpLo T // 03:29, 4 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

17S.NONAME[edit]

Now listed as 17S.NONAME on NRL. --Core desat 14:23, 3 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone George[edit]

Named George, still moving west. - SpLo T // 03:28, 4 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Cyclone George[edit]

Now a severe tropical cyclone, further strengthening forecast as it moves WSW. --Core desat 07:39, 7 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

It has now turned southwards, quite unexpected, and now cyclone warnings have spread for a large part of the Pilbara. It has also grown much bigger. RaNdOm26 02:33, 8 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

910 hPa center pressure with wind gusts up to 150 knots. - グリフオーザー 10:33, 8 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

93P.ODETTE[edit]

Tropical Low[edit]

Same monsoon trough as 91P, only this system survived it, and 91P didn't. Tropical Low now, with cyclone watch declared for parts of Queensland. – Chacor 13:58, 2 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Odette[edit]

Now Odette. The NRL are slow to update their site. RaNdOm26 02:37, 3 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued 030300. - SpLo T // 07:08, 3 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION, COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED IN A 021958Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

This was downgraded back to a tropical low a while ago, and is about to enter Nadi's AOR. --Core desat 01:33, 7 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]