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COLA requires application of interesting mathematics. The covariance matrix associated with a satellite's orbit state is used to construct a three-dimensional error ellipsoid. The extent to which their ellipsoids intersect or overlap gives a conceptual indication of the probability that two orbiting objects will collide (but that's not the whole story -- even if a large ellipsoid completely envelops a smaller one, there's not necessarily a 100% probability of collision). The article really needs to delve into this stuff! 188.8.131.52 (talk) 14:05, 27 August 2013 (UTC)