Talk:Oklahoma Democratic primary, 2012

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Delegate Allocation[edit]

Per this link, I'd like to discuss how to handle the delegate allocation here: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/OK-D

The Green Papers (a site that has been handling this sort of stuff since about 2000) notes that Oklahoma allocates a lot of delegates on a district basis (it's 6 for all CDs but #3, which gets 5). As near as I can tell per the Oklahoma election board's results, the rough rundown is that Obama got about 75% in CD-1 and CD-5 (Oklahoma City and Tulsa...he got 81.6% in Oklahoma County and 76.2% in Tulsa County) but did far, far worse in CD-2 and CD-3 (there are a huge number of counties that he won with 40-50% of the vote in, with Terry and Rogers taking about 20-25% apiece); CD-4 comes right up the middle (suburban Oklahoma City probably put Obama around 60% there, but there's an odd county split that makes it harder to tell).

The Green Papers gives Terry 6 delegates. I'm guessing that this is about right based on the delegate selection plan...he thresholded on a statewide basis as well as in most of the CDs. However, there's no discussion on the point of Rogers hitting the 15% threshold on a district level in spite of failing to make it at the statewide level (an example of this happening would be Al Sharpton in 2004 winning a couple of delegates from Harlem and Detroit in spite of falling well short of 15% statewide in NY and MI per uselectionatlas.org's delegate totals).

As such, I would suggest that nominally allocating 6 delegates to Terry and noting that the delegates are likely to be revoked (the Democrats have declared him "not a Democrat" and there's a letter to this effect on Terry's website that can be accessed via the Green Papers link I included). With Rogers, I would suggest simply keeping an eye peeled unless and until a formal breakdown by CD is announced. Formally speculating on the page would probably be original research at this time, but something seems bound to come up on this point.Tyrenon (talk) 17:30, 7 March 2012 (UTC)[reply]