View source for Thomas J. Watson

{{short description|American businessman (1874–1956)}}
{{For|his son|Thomas J. Watson Jr.}}
{{other people|Thomas Watson}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=August 2019}}
{{Infobox person
| name               = Thomas J. Watson
| image              = Thomas_J_Watson_Sr_(cropped).jpg
| caption            = Watson in 1920s
| birth_name         = Thomas John Watson
| birth_date         = {{Birth date|1874|2|17|mf=y}}
| birth_place        = [[Campbell, New York]], U.S.
| death_date         = {{Death date and age|1956|6|19|1874|2|17|mf=y}}
| death_place        = [[Manhattan]], New York City, U.S.
| occupation         = Chairman and CEO of [[IBM]] 1914–1956
| spouse             = {{marriage|Jeanette M. Kittredge|1913}}
| children           = 4, including [[Thomas Watson Jr.]] and [[Arthur K. Watson]]
| signature          = Thomas J Watson Signature.svg
| signature_alt      = Thomas J Watson
}}

'''Thomas John Watson Sr.''' (February 17, 1874 – June 19, 1956) was an American businessman who was the chairman and CEO of [[IBM]].<ref name=obit/><ref>[https://archive.today/20130629114814/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/interactive/index.html#/EarlyAmbitions "Early Ambitions"]. IBM. Retrieved January 28, 2012.</ref> He oversaw the company's growth into an international force from 1914 to 1956. Watson developed IBM's management style and corporate culture from [[John Henry Patterson (NCR owner)|John Henry Patterson's]] training at [[NCR Corporation|NCR]].<ref>Belden (1962) pp.&nbsp;105–106</ref> He turned the company into a highly effective selling organization, based largely on [[punched card]] [[tabulating machine]]s.

Watson authorized providing Hitler's [[Third Reich]] with data processing solutions and involved IBM in cooperation with Nazi Germany throughout the 1930s and until the end of [[World War II]], profiting from both the German and American war efforts.<ref name="friedman">{{cite news |url=https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/hitlers-willing-executioners/ |title=Hitler's Willing Executives |first=John S. |last=Friedman |date=May 21, 2001 |magazine=[[The Nation]] |accessdate=February 16, 2024}}</ref> A leading self-made industrialist,<ref name="observatory">{{cite web |url=http://futureobservatory.dyndns.org/9081.htm |title=Founding IBM |access-date=1 July 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061003095007/http://futureobservatory.dyndns.org/9081.htm |archive-date=October 3, 2006 }}</ref> he was one of the richest men of his time when he died in 1956.

==Early life and career==
Thomas J. Watson was born in [[Campbell, New York]], in the state's [[Southern Tier]] region, the fifth child and only son of Thomas and Jane Fulton White Watson.<ref>Rodgers, William (1969) THINK, Stein and Day, p.&nbsp;18</ref> His four older siblings were Jennie, Effie, Loua, and Emma. His father farmed and owned a modest [[lumber]] business located near [[Painted Post, New York|Painted Post]], a few miles west of [[Corning, New York|Corning]].<ref name="Maney 2003">{{cite book|first= Kevin|last = Maney|title = The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson, Sr. and the Making of IBM|url= https://archive.org/details/maverickhismachi00mane|url-access= registration|publisher = John Wiley and Sons|year= 2003|isbn = 9780471414636}}</ref> Thomas worked on the family farm in East Campbell and attended the [[District School Number Five]] in the late 1870s.<ref name="nrhpinv_ny">{{cite web|url=http://www.oprhp.state.ny.us/hpimaging/hp_view.asp?GroupView=8581|title=National Register of Historic Places Registration: District School Number Five|date=November 2000|access-date=June 14, 2009|author=William E. Krattinger|publisher=[[New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation]]|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120918144825/http://www.oprhp.state.ny.us/hpimaging/hp_view.asp?GroupView=8581|archive-date=September 18, 2012}}</ref> As Watson entered his teen years he attended Addison Academy in nearby [[Addison (village), New York|Addison]].<ref name="Maney 2003"/>

Having given up his first job—teaching—after just one day, Watson took a year's course in accounting and business at the Miller School of Commerce in [[Elmira, New York]]. He left the school in 1891, taking a job at $6 a week as [[bookkeeper]] for Clarence Risley's Market in Painted Post. One year later he joined a traveling salesman, George Cornwell, peddling organs and pianos around the farms for William Bronson's local hardware store. When Cornwell left, Watson continued alone, earning $10 per week. After two years of this life, he realized he would be earning $70 per week if he were on a commission. His indignation on making this discovery was such that he quit and moved from his familiar surroundings to the relative metropolis of [[Buffalo, New York|Buffalo]].<ref name="Maney 2003"/>

Watson then spent a very brief period selling sewing machines for Wheeler and Wilson. According to son [[Thomas J. Watson Jr.]]'s, autobiography: <blockquote>One day my dad went into a roadside saloon to celebrate a sale and had too much to drink. When the bar closed, he found that his entire rig—horse, buggy, and samples—had been stolen. Wheeler and Wilson fired him and [[debt|dunned]] him for the lost property. Word got around, of course, and it took Dad more than a year to find another steady job.<ref name=MyLife /></blockquote> Watson would later enforce strict rules at IBM against alcohol consumption, even off the job. According to Tom Jr.: <blockquote>This anecdote never made it into IBM lore, which is too bad, because it would have helped explain Father to the tens of thousands of people who had to follow his rules.<ref name=MyLife /></blockquote>

Watson's next job was peddling shares of the Buffalo Building and Loan Company for a [[huckster]] named C. B. Barron, a showman renowned for his disreputable conduct, which Watson deplored. Barron absconded with the commission and the loan funds. Next Watson opened a [[butcher shop]] in Buffalo, which soon failed, leaving Watson with no money, no investment, and no job.<ref name="observatory"/>

==NCR==
Watson had a newly acquired [[NCR Corporation|NCR]] cash register in his butcher shop, for which he had to arrange transfer of its installment payments to the shop's new owner. On visiting NCR he met its Buffalo branch manager, John J. Range, and asked him for a job. Determined to join the company, he repeatedly called on Range until, after a number of abortive attempts, he finally was hired in November 1896, as sales apprentice to Range.<ref name="Maney 2003"/>

Led by [[John Henry Patterson (NCR owner)|John Patterson]], NCR was then one of the leading selling organizations, and Range became almost a father figure for Watson and was a model for his sales and management style. Under Range's guidance Watson became the most successful salesman in the East, earning $100 per week. In a 1952 interview Watson claimed he learned more from Range than anyone else. 

Four years later, NCR assigned Watson to run the struggling NCR agency in [[Rochester, New York]]. As an agent, he got 35% commission and reported directly to Hugh Chalmers, the second-in-command at NCR. In four years Watson made Rochester effectively an NCR monopoly by using the technique of knocking the main competitor, Hallwood, out of business, sometimes resorting to sabotage of the competitor's machines.<ref name="Maney 2003"/> As a reward, he was called to the NCR head office in [[Dayton, Ohio]].<ref name="observatory" />

In 1912, the company was found guilty of violating the [[Sherman Antitrust Act]]. Patterson, Watson, and 26 other NCR executives and managers were convicted for illegal anti-competitive sales practices and were sentenced to one year of imprisonment. Their convictions were unpopular with the public because of the efforts of Patterson and Watson to help those affected by the [[Great Dayton Flood]] of 1913, but efforts to have them pardoned by President [[Woodrow Wilson]] were unsuccessful. However, their convictions were overturned on appeal in 1915 on the grounds that important defense evidence should have been admitted.

==Head of IBM==
[[File:Thomasjwatson1917.png|thumb|Watson in 1917]]

[[Charles Ranlett Flint]], who had engineered the [[Consolidation (business)|amalgamation]] (via stock acquisition) forming the [[Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company]] (CTR) found it difficult to manage the five companies. He hired Watson as general manager on May 1, 1914, when the five companies had about 1,300 employees. Eleven months later Watson was made President when court cases relating to his time at NCR were resolved.<ref>[[NCR Corporation#Expansion]]</ref> Within four years revenues had been doubled to $9&nbsp;million.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/decade_1910.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20041216105243/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/decade_1910.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=December 16, 2004 |title=IBM Archives: 1910s |date=January 23, 2003 |publisher=IBM |access-date=January 5, 2013}}</ref> In 1924, he renamed CTR to International Business Machines. Watson built IBM into such a dominant company that the federal government filed a civil [[antitrust]] suit against it in 1952. IBM owned and leased to its customers more than 90 percent of all tabulating machines in the United States at the time. When Watson died in 1956, IBM's revenues were $897&nbsp;million, and the company had 72,500 employees.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/year_1956.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050117192449/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/year_1956.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=January 17, 2005 |title=IBM Archives: 1956 |date=January 23, 2003 |publisher=IBM| access-date=September 8, 2009}}</ref>

Throughout his life, Watson maintained a deep interest in international relations, from both a diplomatic and a business perspective. He was known as US President [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]]'s unofficial ambassador in New York and often entertained foreign statesmen. In 1937, he was elected president of the [[International Chamber of Commerce]] (ICC) and at that year's biennial congress in Berlin stated that the conference keynote would be "World Peace Through World Trade."<ref>{{cite book|first = George L.|last= Ridgeway|title = Merchants of Peace: Twenty Years of Business Diplomacy Through the International Chamber of Commerce 1919–1938|publisher = Columbia University Press|year = 1938}}</ref> That phrase became the slogan of both the ICC and IBM.<ref>{{cite book|first= Thomas|last = Belden|author2=Belden, Marva |title = The Lengthening Shadow: The Life of Thomas J. Watson|url= https://archive.org/details/lengtheningshado00beld|url-access= registration|publisher = Little, Brown and Company|year= 1962}}</ref>

===Dealings with Nazi Germany===
In 1937, as President of the International Chamber of Commerce, Watson met [[Adolf Hitler]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://hbr.org/podcast/2019/11/lessons-from-ibm-in-nazi-germany|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200219005653/https://hbr.org/podcast/2019/11/lessons-from-ibm-in-nazi-germany|url-status=dead|archive-date=2020-02-19|title=Lessons from IBM in Nazi Germany|date=2020-02-19|access-date=2020-02-19}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/punched-cards/2/15/109|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200219005634/https://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/punched-cards/2/15/109|url-status=dead|archive-date=2020-02-19|title=Tom Watson, Sr. meets with Adolf Hitler – CHM Revolution|date=2020-02-19|access-date=2020-02-19}}</ref> During the 1930s, IBM's German subsidiary was its most profitable foreign operation, and a 2001 book by Edwin Black, ''[[IBM and the Holocaust]]'', claims that Watson's pursuit of profit led him to personally approve and spearhead IBM's strategic technological relationship with [[Nazi Germany]]. It describes how IBM provided the tabulating equipment Hitler used to round up the Jews. His Hollerith punch-card machines are in the Holocaust Museum today. The book describes IBM's punch cards as "a card with standardized holes", each representing a different trait of the individual. The card was fed into a "reader" and sorted. Punch cards identified Jews by name. Each one served as "a twentieth-century bar code for human beings".<ref name="Black 2001">{{cite book | last = Black| first = Edwin|title = IBM and the Holocaust| publisher = Crown Publishers|year = 2001|url=http://www.ibmandtheholocaust.com/}}</ref> In particular, critics point to the [[Order of the German Eagle]] medal that Watson received at the Berlin ICC meeting in 1937, as evidence that he was being honored for the help that IBM's German subsidiary [[Dehomag]] (Deutsche Hollerith-Maschinen Gesellschaft mbH) and its punch card machines provided the [[Nazi]] regime, particularly in the tabulation of census data (which included the location of Jews). Another study argues that Watson believed, perhaps naively, that the medal was in recognition of his years of labor on behalf of global commerce and international peace.<ref name="Maney 2003" /><sup>[please add a precise citation page]</sup>

Because of his strong feelings about the issue, Watson wanted to return his German citation shortly after receiving it. When [[Cordell Hull|Secretary of State Hull]] advised him against that course of action, he gave up the idea until the spring of 1940. Then Hull refused advice, and Watson sent the medal back in June 1940.<ref>{{Cite book|title=The Lengthening Shadow: The Life of Thomas J. Watson|last=Belden|first=Thomas and Marva|publisher=Little, Brown and Company, Inc.|year=1962|edition=1st|location=United States of America and Canada|pages=207|lccn=61-8065}}</ref> Dehomag's management disapproved of Watson's action and considered separating from IBM. This occurred when Germany declared war on the United States in December 1941, and the German shareholders took custody of the Dehomag operation.<ref name="Maney 2003" /> However, during [[World War II]], IBM subsidiaries in occupied Europe never stopped delivery of punch cards to Dehomag, and documents uncovered show that senior executives at IBM world headquarters in New York took great pains to maintain legal authority over Dehomag's operations and assets through the personal intervention of IBM managers in neutral [[Switzerland]], directed via personal communications and private letters, which confirms the close ties between the company’s headquarters and its subsidiaries throughout the war.<ref name="Black 2001" />

===Dealings with the United States===
During this same period, IBM became more deeply involved in the war effort for the U.S., focusing on producing large quantities of data processing equipment for the military and experimenting with [[analog computer]]s. Watson Sr. also developed the "1% doctrine" for war profits which mandated that IBM receive no more than 1% profit from the sales of military equipment to U.S. Government.<ref name="onepercentdoctrine">{{cite web|url=http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/decade_1940.html|archive-url=https://archive.today/20120717213504/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/history/decade_1940.html|url-status=dead|archive-date=July 17, 2012|title=IBM Archives: 1940s|date=January 23, 2003|publisher=IBM|access-date=July 30, 2007}}</ref> Watson was one of the few CEOs to develop such a policy.

In 1941, Watson received the third highest salary and compensation package in the U.S., $517,221, on which he paid 69% in tax.<ref>{{Cite news
| title = Compensation and the I.R.S.: It's not the 'Good' Old Days
| newspaper = [[The New York Times]]| location = Business Day
| access-date = 21 January 2014| date = December 1, 2010
| url = https://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/12/01/business/01retrographic.html?ref=economy
}}</ref>

Watson had a personal interest in the progress of the war. His eldest son, Thomas J. Watson Jr., joined the [[United States Army Air Corps]] and became a bomber pilot. He was soon hand-picked to become the assistant and personal pilot for General Follet Bradley, who was in charge of all [[Lend-Lease]] equipment supplied to the Soviet Union from the United States. Watson Sr.'s youngest son, [[Arthur K. Watson]], also joined the military during the conflict.

===Post-World War II===
[[File:Thomas J. Watson - National Portrait Gallery.jpg|thumb|Watson in 1950]]

Watson worked with local leaders to create a college in the [[Binghamton, New York|Binghamton]] area, where IBM was founded and had major plants. In 1946, IBM provided land and funding for Triple Cities College, an extension of [[Syracuse University]]. Later it became known as Harpur College, and eventually evolved into [[Binghamton University]]. 

After World War II, Watson began work to further the extent of IBM's influence abroad and in 1949, he created the IBM World Trade Corporation in order to oversee IBM's foreign business.<ref>[http://www.ibm.com/ibm100/us/en/icons/ibmworldtrade/ "The Creation of the World Trade Corporation"]. IBM. Retrieved January 28, 2012.</ref>

Watson retired in 1956 and his oldest son, [[Thomas J. Watson Jr.]], became IBM's CEO.<ref>{{cite news |title=Watson Yields I.B.M. Helm at 82. Son, 42, Is Elected Chief Executive of Company |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1956/05/09/archives/watson-yields-ibm-helm-at-82-son-42-is-elected-chief-executive-of.html |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=May 9, 1956 }}</ref> Watson Sr. died on June 19, 1956, in [[Manhattan, New York City]]<ref name=obit>{{cite news |title=Thomas J. Watson Sr. Is Dead. I.B.M. Board Chairman Was 82 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1956/06/20/archives/thomas-j-watson-sr-is-dead-ibm-board-chairman-was-82-worlds.html |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=June 20, 1956 }}</ref> and was buried in [[Sleepy Hollow Cemetery]] in [[Sleepy Hollow, New York]].

==Personal life==
Watson married Jeanette Kittredge, from a prominent [[Dayton, Ohio]], railroad family, on April 17, 1913. They had two sons and two daughters.

# [[Thomas Watson Jr.]] succeeded his father as IBM chairman and later served as ambassador to the [[Soviet Union]] under [[Jimmy Carter]]
# Jeanette Watson Irwin married businessman [[John N. Irwin II]], later ambassador to France
# [[Helen Watson Buckner]] became an important philanthropist in New York City
# [[Arthur K. Watson]] served as president of IBM World Trade Corporation and later, as ambassador to France

As a Democrat (after his criminal indictment by the [[William Howard Taft|Taft]] Administration), Watson was an ardent supporter of Roosevelt. He was one of the most prominent businessmen in the Democratic Party. He was considered Roosevelt's strongest supporter in the business community.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=STEBENNE |first=DAVID L. |date=2005 |title=Thomas J. Watson and the Business-Government Relationship, 1933—1956 |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/23700215 |journal=Enterprise & Society |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=45–75 |doi=10.1093/es/khi002 |jstor=23700215 |issn=1467-2227}}</ref>[[File:Thomas J. Watson, Sr. Gravesite.JPG|thumb|The gravesite of Thomas J. Watson Sr.]]

Watson served as a powerful trustee of [[Columbia University]] from June 6, 1933, until his death. He engineered the selection of [[Dwight D. Eisenhower]] as its president and played the central role in convincing Eisenhower to become president of the university. Additionally, he served as a trustee of [[Lafayette College]] and is the namesake of [[Watson Hall]], a campus residence hall.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.mcall.com/1986/04/05/lafayette-honors-foremost-benefactors/|title=Lafayette Honors Foremost Benefactors|access-date=4 October 2016}}</ref><ref name="skillman">{{cite book|last1=Skillman|first1=David Bishop|title=The Biography of a College: Being the History of the First Century of the Life of Lafayette College|date=1932|publisher=Lafayette College|location=Easton, Pennsylvania}}</ref>

In 1936 the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a lower court decision that IBM, together with Remington Rand, should cease its practice of requiring its customers to buy their punch cards from it alone. The ruling made little difference because IBM was the only effective supplier to the market, and profits continued undiminished.<ref name="observatory" />

In 1937, Watson was awarded the [[Order of the German Eagle]] by [[Adolf Hitler]]. Watson was also president of the [[International Chamber of Commerce]] in 1937; the medal was awarded while the ICC was meeting in Germany that year.<ref>Geoffrey G. Jones, Adrian Brown, "Thomas J. Watson, IBM and Nazi Germany", [[Harvard Business School]] Case 9-807-133, October 2008</ref>

In 1939, he received an honorary degree in Doctor of Commercial Science from [[Oglethorpe University]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Honorary Degrees Awarded by Oglethorpe University|publisher=Oglethorpe University|url=http://www.oglethorpe.edu/about_us/history/honorary_degrees.asp|access-date=22 March 2015|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150319104000/http://www.oglethorpe.edu/about_us/history/honorary_degrees.asp|archive-date=March 19, 2015}}</ref>

In the 1940s, Watson was on the national executive board of the [[Boy Scouts of America]] and served for a time as an international Scout commissioner. [[E. Urner Goodman]] recounts that the elderly Watson attended an international Scout commissioners' meeting in [[Switzerland]], where the IBM founder asked not to be put on a pedestal. Before the conference was over, Goodman relates, Watson "...&nbsp;sat by that campfire, in Scout uniform, 'chewing the fat' like the rest of the boys".<ref>{{cite book|last=Goodman|first=E. Urner|title=The Building of a Life|publisher=Standard Printing|location=St. Augustine, FL|year=1965}}</ref> He received the [[Silver Buffalo Award]] in 1944. His son, Thomas Jr., later served as [[national president of the Boy Scouts of America|national president]] of the Boy Scouts from 1964 to 1968. He was also inducted into the [[Steuben County, New York]] Hall of Fame. Throughout his life Watson continued to own and enjoy the family farm on which he was born. In 1955 he and his wife gave it, along with one million dollars, to the Methodist Church for use as a retreat and conference center, to be named Watson Homestead in memory of his parents.  Watson Homestead became independent of the church in 1995, and continues as a conference and retreat center. The one-room school that Watson attended as a child is still on the grounds.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.watsonhomestead.com/our-history|title=History}}</ref>

Watson was chairman of the [[Elmira College]] centennial committee in 1955 and donated Watson Hall, primarily a music and mathematics academic building.

Watson was a member of both the [[American Academy of Arts and Sciences]] (1960) and the [[American Philosophical Society]] (1984).<ref>{{Cite web |title=Thomas John Watson |url=https://www.amacad.org/person/thomas-john-watson |access-date=2022-05-23 |website=American Academy of Arts & Sciences |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=APS Member History |url=https://search.amphilsoc.org/memhist/search?creator=Thomas+J.+Watson&title=&subject=&subdiv=&mem=&year=&year-max=&dead=&keyword=&smode=advanced |access-date=2022-05-23 |website=search.amphilsoc.org}}</ref>

He was posthumously inducted into the [[Junior Achievement]] [[U.S. Business Hall of Fame]] in 1990.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ja.org/hof/year.asp|title=Laureates Inducted in 1990|work=[[U.S. Business Hall of Fame]]|publisher=[[Junior Achievement|Junior Achievement USA]]|access-date=January 28, 2012|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120125093521/http://www.ja.org/hof/year.asp|archive-date=January 25, 2012}}</ref>

==Famous attribution==
Although Watson is well known for his alleged 1943 statement, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," there is scant evidence he said it. Author Kevin Maney tried to find the origin of the quote, but has been unable to locate any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this, nor are the words present in any contemporary articles about IBM.

One of the first attributions is in the German magazine ''[[Der Spiegel]]'' of May 22, 1965, stating that IBM boss Thomas Watson had not been interested in the new machines initially, and when the first commercial calculation behemoths appeared in the early 1950s, filling whole floors with thousands of heat generating vacuum tubes, he estimated the demand by the US economy at a maximum of five.<ref>{{Cite news |date=1965-05-25 |title=Sieg der Mikrosekunde |url=https://www.spiegel.de/politik/sieg-der-mikrosekunde-a-3ccc2c00-0002-0001-0000-000046272769?context=issue |access-date=2024-08-15 |work=Der Spiegel |language=de |issn=2195-1349}}</ref>

Later attributions may be found in ''The Experts Speak'', a book written by [[Christopher Cerf (musician and television producer)|Christopher Cerf]] and [[Victor S. Navasky]] in 1984, however Cerf and Navasky just quote from a book written by Morgan and Langford, ''Facts and Fallacies''. Another early article source (May 15, 1985) is a column by Neil Morgan, a ''San Diego Evening Tribune'' writer who wrote: "Forrest Shumway, chairman of The Signal Cos., doesn't make predictions. His role model is Tom Watson, then IBM chairman, who said in 1958: 'I think there is a world market for about five computers.{{'"}} The earliest known citation on the Internet is from 1986 on [[Usenet]] in the signature of a poster from Convex Computer Corporation as {{" '}}I think there is a world market for about five computers' —Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson (Chairman of the Board of International Business Machines), 1943". All these early quotes are questioned by Eric Weiss, an editor of the ''Annals of the History of Computing'' in ACS letters in 1985.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Weiss |first1=Eric A. |title=Information Sought on 'Only a Few Computers are Needed' Statement |journal=Communications of the ACM |date=1985 |volume=28 |issue=1 |page=2 |doi=10.1145/2465.314899 |doi-access=free}}</ref>

There are documented versions of similar quotes by other people in the early history of the computer. In 1946 [[Charles Galton Darwin|Sir Charles Darwin]] (grandson of the famous naturalist), head of Britain's NPL (National Physical Laboratory), where research into computers was taking place, wrote: <blockquote> it is very possible that ... one machine would suffice to solve all the problems that are demanded of it from the whole country.<ref>[[Jack Copeland|Copeland, Jack]] (2006). ''Colossus: The Secrets of Bletchley Park's Codebreaking Computers''. Oxford University Press. p.&nbsp;109</ref></blockquote>

In 1985 the story was discussed on Usenet (in net.misc), without Watson's name being attached. The original discussion has not survived, but an explanation has; it attributes a very similar quote to the [[University of Cambridge|Cambridge]] mathematician Professor [[Douglas Hartree]], around 1951:
<blockquote>I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analyzers in England and had more experience in using these very specialized computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built—one in Cambridge, one in [[National Physical Laboratory, UK|Teddington]], and one in Manchester. No one else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.<ref>Brader, Mark (July 10, 1985). [http://groups-beta.google.com/group/net.misc/msg/00c91c2cc0896b77 "Only 3 computers will be needed..."] (Forum post). net.misc. Citing [[B.V. Bowden|Lord Bowden]] (1970). ''American Scientist''. '''58''': 43–53)</ref><ref>[http://www.chilton-computing.org.uk/acl/literature/reports/p014.htm The Language of Computers] a transcript of a talk given by Lord Bowden of Chesterfield, at Brighton College of Technology. the first Richard Goodman Memorial Lecture</ref></blockquote>

[[Howard H. Aiken]] made a similar statement in 1952:
<blockquote>Originally one thought that if there were a half dozen large computers in this country, hidden away in research laboratories, this would take care of all requirements we had throughout the country.<ref>[[I. Bernard Cohen|Cohen, I. Bernard]] (1999). ''Howard Aiken: Portrait of a Computer Pioneer''. MIT Press. p.&nbsp;292</ref><ref>[[I. Bernard Cohen|Cohen, I. Bernard]] (1998). ''IEEE Annals of the History of Computing'' 20.3 pp.&nbsp;27–33</ref></blockquote>

The story already had been described as a myth in 1973; the ''Economist'' quoted a Mr. Maney as "revealing that Watson never made his oft-quoted prediction that there was 'a world market for maybe five computers.{{'"}}<ref>''The Economist'', '''367''' (8322–8326): 201</ref>

Since the attribution typically is used to demonstrate the fallacy of predictions, if Watson had made such a prediction in 1943, then, as [[Gordon Bell]] pointed out in his ACM 50 years celebration keynote, it would have held true for some ten years.<ref>{{Cite book|title=The Folly of Prediction|url=https://archive.org/details/talkingbacktomac0000denn/page/4|isbn=978-0-387-98413-1|first=Gordon|last=Bell|author-link=Gordon Bell|year=1999|work=Talking Back to the Machine|publisher=Copernicus|location=New York|page=[https://archive.org/details/talkingbacktomac0000denn/page/4 4]|editor-first=Peter J.|editor-last=Denning|editor-link=Peter J. Denning|access-date=June 17, 2013|url-access=registration}}</ref>

The IBM archives of Frequently Asked Questions<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20050514230534/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/documents/pdf/faq.pdf "IBM Frequently Asked Questions"]. p.&nbsp;26</ref> notes an inquiry about whether he said in the 1950s that he foresaw a market potential for only five electronic computers. The document says no, but quotes his son and then IBM President Thomas J. Watson Jr. at the annual IBM stockholders meeting, April 28, 1953, as speaking about the [[IBM 701]] Electronic Data Processing Machine, which it identifies as "the company's first production computer designed for scientific calculations". He said that "IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18." Watson Jr. later gave a slightly different version of the story in his autobiography, where he said the initial market sampling indicated 11 firm takers and 10 more prospective orders.<ref name=MyLife>{{cite book|first1= Thomas J.|last1 = Watson Jr.|last2= Petre|first2=Peter|title = Father, Son & Co.: My Life at IBM and Beyond|publisher = Bantam Books|year= 1990}}</ref>

==Famous motto==
"[[Think (IBM)|THINK]]" – Watson began using "THINK" to motivate, or inspire, staff while at [[NCR Voyix|NCR]] and continued to use it at CTR. International Business Machines's first U.S. trademark was for the name "THINK" filed as a U.S. trademark on June 6, 1935, with the description "periodical publications". This trademark was filed fourteen years before the company filed for a U.S. trademark on the name IBM. A biographical article in 1940 noted that "This word is on the most conspicuous wall of every room in every IBM building. Each employee carries a THINK notebook in which to record inspirations. The company stationery, matches, scratch pads all bear the inscription, THINK. A monthly magazine called 'Think' is distributed to the employees."<ref>Current Biography 1940, p.&nbsp;846</ref> THINK remains a part of IBM's corporate culture; it was the inspiration behind naming IBM's successful line of [[notebook computer]]s, [[ThinkPad|IBM ThinkPad]].<ref>Dell, Deborah; Purdy, J. Gerry. "ThinkPad: A Different Shade of Blue". Sams {{ISBN|978-0672317569}}</ref> In 2007, IBM Mid America Employees Federal Credit Union changed its name to [[Think Mutual Bank]].

==See also==
* [[IBM and the Holocaust]]
* [[IBM and World War II]]
* [[Jeannette K. Watson Fellowship]]
* [[Thomas J. Watson Fellowship]]
* [[Thomas J. Watson Research Center]]
* [[Binghamton University#Colleges and schools|Thomas J. Watson College of Engineering and Applied Science]]
* [[IBM Watson|Watson (computer)]], named in honor of Thomas J. Watson

==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}

==Further reading==
* Belden, Thomas Graham; Belden, Marva Robins (1962). ''The Lengthening Shadow: The Life of Thomas J. Watson''. Boston: Little, Brown and Co. 332 pp. {{OCLC|237220}}
* Greulich, Peter E. (2011) ''The World's Greatest Salesman: An IBM Caretaker's Perspective: Looking Back''. Austin, TX: MBI Concepts. {{ISBN|978-0-9833734-0-7}}. The bulk of the book consists of abridged texts from Watson's ''Men—Minutes—Money''.
* Greulich, Peter E. (2012) ''Tom Watson Sr. Essays on Leadership: Volume 1, Democracy in Business''. Austin, TX: MBI Concepts. {{ISBN|978-0-9833734-3-8}} (electronic version only)
* Greulich, Peter E. (2012) ''Tom Watson Sr. Essays on Leadership: Volume 2, We Are All Assistants''. Austin, TX: MBI Concepts. {{ISBN|978-0-9833734-4-5}} (electronic version only)
* Greulich, Peter E. (2012) ''Tom Watson Sr. Essays on Leadership: Volume 3, We Forgive Thoughtful Mistakes''. Austin, TX: MBI Concepts. {{ISBN|978-0-9833734-5-2}} (electronic version only)
* Maney, Kevin (2003). ''The Maverick and His Machine: Thomas Watson, Sr. and the Making of IBM''. John Wiley & Sons. {{ISBN|978-0-471-41463-6}}
* Ridgeway, George L. (1938) ''Merchants of Peace: Twenty Years of Business Diplomacy Through the International Chamber of Commerce 1919–1938'', Columbia University Press, 419pp. There is a 1959 revised edition.
* Rodgers, William H. (1969) ''THINK: A Biography of the Watsons and IBM''. New York: Stein and Day. {{ISBN|978-0-8128-1226-8}}
* [[Robert Sobel|Sobel, Robert]] (2000). ''Thomas Watson, Sr.: IBM and the Computer Revolution''. Washington: BeardBooks. {{ISBN|978-1-893122-82-6}}
* [[Richard S. Tedlow|Tedlow, Richard S.]] (2003). ''The Watson Dynasty: The Fiery Reign and Troubled Legacy of IBM's Founding Father and Son''. New York: HarperBusiness. {{ISBN|978-0-06-001405-6}}
* {{cite book |last= Watson |first= Thomas J.
|title=Men—Minutes—Money: A Collection of Excerpts from Talks and Messages Delivered and Written at Various Times|publisher = IBM |year=1934|orig-year=1930|oclc=391485}}
* {{cite book |last= Watson |first= Thomas J.
|title= World Peace through the United Nations |publisher=Newcomen Society |year= 1948 |page= 24}}
* {{cite book |last= Watson |first= Thomas J.
|title= Human Relations |publisher= IBM |year=1949 |page=654}}
* {{cite book |last= Watson |first= Thomas J.
|title = "As a Man Thinks ...": Thomas J. Watson, the Man and His Philosophy of Life as Expressed in His Editorials
|publisher = IBM |year=1954|oclc=2478365}}
* {{cite book |last1= Watson |first1= Thomas J. Jr. |first2=Peter|last2=Petre|year=2000|orig-year=1990|title=Father, Son & Co.: My Life at IBM and Beyond|publisher=Bantam Books|isbn=978-0-553-38083-5}}
* [[J. S. Wilson|Wilson, John S.]] (1959). ''Scouting Round the World''. Blandford Press. pp.&nbsp;186–272. {{OCLC|58863729}}

==External links==
{{Wikiquote}}
{{Commons category|Thomas J. Watson}}
* [http://purl.umn.edu/107119 Oral history interview with Thomas J. Watson Jr.], April 25, 1985, Armonk, New York, [[Charles Babbage Institute]], University of Minnesota.
* [http://libmma.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/search/field/creato/searchterm/Watson,%20Thomas%20John,%201874-1956/mode/exact Audio recordings of Thomas J. Watson speaking at The Metropolitan Museum of Art]
* [https://www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/bday/0217.html "Thomas J. Watson Sr. Is Dead; I.B.M. Board Chairman Was 82"]. ''The New York Times''. June 20, 1956.
* [http://www.users.cloud9.net/~bradmcc/ibmsongbook.html ''The IBM Songbook''] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141016063243/http://www.users.cloud9.net/~bradmcc/ibmsongbook.html |date=October 16, 2014 }}.
* [http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=34000003%40convex&output=gplain First Usenet Posting of the misquote]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20050411215731/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/exhibits/chairmen/chairmen_3.html IBM biography of Watson]
* {{PM20|FID=pe/018194}}

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