User:LarryJeff/Sandbox

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Scenarios for matches on 2-4 September in the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations qualification where teams could (1) clinch being no worse than 1 of the 2 best 2nd place teams or (2) be unable to qualify even if they can still finish 2nd, based on results of matches being played in other groups the same days. If a team is listed as "possibly affected" under a category but have no conditions listed, it means that there is no scenario in which they would not fit the category. For example, in Group F the worst possible finish for Burkina Faso is 2nd place with 9 points; therefor, in all the "Teams with X points will advance" categories, Burkina Faso are listed with no conditions because no matter what happens in their group they have already clinched that. If a listed scenario is struck through it means that team would already have been eliminated by the same conditions at a lower point level.

Teams with max 5 pts ARE eliminated[edit]

  • Group B; Madagascar, Ethiopia
  • Group C; Mozambique
  • Group E Congo DR, Cameroon
  • Group F; Namibia
  • Group G Egypt
  • Group H Benin, Rwanda
  • Group J; Guinea-Bissau

Additional teams would would finish 2nd with 5 points or less:

  • Group A; Zimbabwe if they draw with Cape Verde
  • Group B; Nigeria if they don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
  • Group D (additional possible scenarios for all 4 teams if Tanzania and Algeria both win)
    • Central African Republic if
      • they lose to Algeria and Tanzania don't defeat Morocco
      • both matches draw
    • Morocco if they lose to Tanzania and Algeria don't defeat the Central African Republic
  • Group F; Gambia if they don't defeat Burkina Faso
  • Group G; South Africa and Sierra Leone if they draw
  • Group H; Burundi if they don't defeat Ivory Coast or Rwanda don't defeat Benin
  • Group J; Uganda if
    • they lose to Kenya and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
    • they draw and Angola win

Teams with max 6 pts will be eliminated if any ONE of[edit]

  • Group A, either
    • Cape Verde defeat Zimbabwe and Liberia don't defeat Mali
    • Mali win and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
  • Group B, either
    • Nigeria defeat Guinea
    • Nigeria and Guinea draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
  • Group C, Libya don't defeat Zambia
  • Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
  • Group G, Niger defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
  • Group J, Kenya defeat Uganda and Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams affected:

  • Group A, Mali if
    • they lose to Liberia and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
    • they draw and Zimbabwe win
  • Group B, Nigeria if they lose to Guinea
  • Group C, Zambia if they lose to Libya
  • Group D
    • Algeria and Tanzania
    • Morrocco if
      • they lose to Tanzania or Central African Republic defeat Algeria
  • Group F, Gambia
  • Group G, Niger if they don't defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
  • Group H, Burundi
  • Group J, Angola if they don't defeat Guinea-Bissau or Uganda defeat Kenya

Teams with max 7 pts will be eliminated if any TWO of[edit]

  • Group B, either
    • Nigeria defeat Guinea 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
    • Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar win
  • Group C, Zambia and Libya draw
  • Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
  • Group I, Sudan and Ghana draw

Teams affected:

  • Group A
    • Cape Verde, if Liberia don't defeat Mali
    • Zimbabwe if Mali defeat Liberia
  • Group B
    • Nigeria if
      • they defeat Guinea by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
      • they don't win
    • Guinea if they lose to Nigeria 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
  • Group C, Libya if they lose to Zambia
  • Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone if they don't draw and Niger defeat Egypt
  • Group I, the loser between Sudan and Ghana
  • Group J, Kenya if Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams with 9 pts ADVANCE[edit]

  • Group B
    • Guinea if Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia

Teams with 8 pts will advance if any TWO of:[edit]

  • Group B, either
    • Nigeria don't defeat Guinea
    • Nigeria win 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
    • Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't win
  • Group C, Zambia and Libya don't draw
  • Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
  • Group I, Sudan and Ghana don't draw

Teams affected:

  • Group C, Libya if they draw with Zambia
  • Group D, Morocco or Central African Republic if they both win
  • Group I, Sudan if they draw with Ghana

Teams with 7 pts will advance if any FIVE of:[edit]

  • Group A, either
    • Liberia defeat Mali
    • Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
    • Liberia and Mali draw and Zimbabwe win
  • Group B, either
    • Guinea defeat Nigeria
    • Guinea and Nigeria draw and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
  • Group C, Libya defeat Zambia
  • Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
  • Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw or Niger don't defeat Egypt
  • Group J, Kenya don't defeat Uganda or Angola don't defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams affected:

  • Group A, the winner between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe
  • Group B
    • Guinea
    • Nigeria if
      • they defeat Guinea
      • they draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
  • Group C, Libya
  • Group G, the winner between South Africa and Sierra Leone
  • Group I, Ghana and Sudan
  • Group J, Kenya if they defeat Uganda

Teams with 6 pts will advance if ALL SEVEN of:[edit]

  • Group A, Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
  • Group B, Nigeria don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
  • Group D, any of the following (also depends on tiebreakers to determine 2nd and last place teams)
    • Algeria defeat Central African Republic
    • Tanzania defeat Morocco
    • both matches draw
  • Group F, Gambia don't defeat Burkina Faso
  • Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw
  • Group H, Rwanda don't defeat Benin or Burundi don't defeat Ivory Coast
  • Group J, either
    • Kenya defeat Uganda and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
    • Kenya and Uganda draw and Angola win

Because Groups C and I already have clinched (as a group) a minimum of 6 and 7 points respectively, this scenario applies only to Zambia in Group C