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2004 Andalusian regional election

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2004 Andalusian regional election
← 2000 14 March 2004 2008 →
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered6,052,012 Green arrow up2.3%
Turnout4,518,545 (74.7%)
Green arrow up6.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Manuel Chaves Teófila Martínez Diego Valderas
Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA
Leader since 19 April 1990 20 February 1999 10 October 2000
Leader's seat Cádiz Cádiz Huelva
Last election 52 seats, 44.3% 46 seats, 38.0% 6 seats, 8.1%
Seats won 61 37 6
Seat change Green arrow up9 Red arrow down9 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 2,260,545 1,426,774 337,030
Percentage 50.4% 31.8% 7.5%
Swing Green arrow up6.1 pp Red arrow down6.2 pp Red arrow down0.6 pp
  Fourth party
 
Leader Antonio Ortega
Party PA
Leader since 19 October 1996
Leader's seat Seville
Last election 5 seats, 7.4%
Seats won 5
Seat change Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 276,674
Percentage 6.2%
Swing Red arrow down1.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

Elected President

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

The 2004 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2004 Spanish general election.

As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Overview

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Electoral system

[edit]

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[1][2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
18 Seville
16 Málaga
15 Cádiz
13 Córdoba, Granada
12 Jaén
11 Almería, Huelva

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[3]

Election date

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The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 11 May 2004.[1][2][4][5][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1][4][5][6]

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE–A
List
 Manuel Chaves Social democracy 44.32% 52 checkY
PP
List
 Teófila Martínez Conservatism
Christian democracy 		38.02% 46 ☒N
IULV–CA
List
 Diego Valderas Socialism
Communism 		8.11% 6 ☒N
PA
List
 Antonio Ortega Andalusian nationalism
Social democracy 		7.43% 5 checkY

Campaign

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Election debates

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2004 Andalusian regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[a]  
PSOE–A PP IULV–CA PA Audience Ref.
4 March Canal Sur Manuel Campo Vidal P
Chaves 		P
Martínez 		P
Valderas 		P
Ortega 		17.9%
(552,000) 		[8]
[9]

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

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Local regression trend line of poll results from 12 March 2000 to 14 March 2004, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

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The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

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The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Results

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Overall

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← Summary of the 14 March 2004 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) 2,260,545 50.36 +6.04 61 +9
People's Party (PP) 1,426,774 31.78 –6.24 37 –9
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) 337,030 7.51 –0.60 6 ±0
Andalusian Party (PA) 276,674 6.16 –1.27 5 ±0
Andalusian Forum (FA) 53,288 1.19 New 0 ±0
Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA) 42,219 0.94 New 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 5,670 0.13 +0.02 0 ±0
New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA) 5,065 0.11 New 0 ±0
Andalusia Assembly (A) 4,544 0.10 –0.01 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)1 4,437 0.10 +0.07 0 ±0
Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE) 3,321 0.07 New 0 ±0
Republican Left (IR) 3,130 0.07 New 0 ±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) 1,642 0.04 New 0 ±0
Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ) 1,334 0.03 New 0 ±0
Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP) 525 0.01 New 0 ±0
National Union (UN) 523 0.01 ±0.00 0 ±0
Blank ballots 62,451 1.39 +0.10
Total 4,489,172 109 ±0
Valid votes 4,489,172 99.35 +0.01
Invalid votes 28,658 0.65 –0.01
Votes cast / turnout 4,518,545 74.66 +5.95
Abstentions 1,533,467 25.34 –5.95
Registered voters 6,052,012
Sources[10][11][12]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE–A
 
 50.36%
PP
 
 31.78%
IULV–CA
 
 7.51%
PA
 
 6.16%
FA
 
 1.19%
Others
 
 1.61%
Blank ballots
 
 1.39%
Seats
PSOE–A
 
 55.96%
PP
 
 33.94%
IULV–CA
 
 5.50%
PA
 
 4.59%

Distribution by constituency

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Constituency PSOE–A PP IULV–CA PA
% S % S % S % S
Almería 46.1 6 42.0 5 3.8 − 4.4 −
Cádiz 47.8 8 32.0 5 6.6 1 7.3 1
Córdoba 45.9 7 30.8 4 11.2 1 6.4 1
Granada 49.0 7 35.4 5 7.1 1 4.3 −
Huelva 52.9 7 28.8 3 7.3 − 8.0 1
Jaén 53.1 7 32.4 4 6.7 1 5.7 −
Málaga 47.5 8 34.6 6 7.6 1 6.7 1
Seville 55.9 11 26.2 5 7.9 1 6.1 1
Total 50.4 61 31.8 37 7.5 6 6.2 5
Sources[10][11][12]

Aftermath

[edit]
Investiture
Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 21 April 2004
Required majority → 55 out of 109 checkY
Yes
61 / 109
No
  • • PP (36)
36 / 109
Abstentions
11 / 109
Absentees
  • • PP (1)
1 / 109
Sources[10]

Notes

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  1. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP puede perder de tres a seis diputados". estupidafregona.net (in Spanish). 14 March 2004.
  2. ^ "Elecciones Generales y de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Sondeo de Ipsos-EcoConsulting para RTVE - Domingo 14 de Marzo". RTVE (in Spanish). 14 March 2004. Archived from the original on 26 March 2004.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  3. ^ "Rojas Marcos llama a "tirarse a la calle" si el PSOE logra la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 7 March 2004.
  4. ^ a b "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 29 February 2004.
  5. ^ "El PSOE recuperará en el Parlamento andaluz la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004.
  6. ^ a b c d "Elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía. Intención de voto. Marzo de 2004" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 8 March 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015.
  7. ^ "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y podría gobernar con el apoyo del PA o IU". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
  8. ^ "El PSOE sería el partido más votado en todas las provincias, excepto en Almería". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2004.
  9. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones generales y autonómicas de Andalucía, 2004 (Estudio nº 2555. Enero-Febrero 2004)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 4 March 2004.
  10. ^ "La mayoría absoluta pende de un hilo". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 March 2004.
  11. ^ "Un sondeo del PP lo sitúa a 2,2 puntos del PSOE en las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
  12. ^ "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 14 February 2004.
  13. ^ "Una encuesta del PP prevé un empate a escaños con los socialistas en Andalucía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
  14. ^ "Una encuesta encargada por los empresarios sitúa al PSOE a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 20 February 2004.
  15. ^ "Chaves roza de nuevo la mayoría absoluta que perdió en 1994". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
  16. ^ "Chaves ganaría las elecciones andaluzas con más de 7 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 9 February 2004.
  17. ^ a b "El PSOE mantiene su ventaja de ocho puntos sobre el PP para las elecciones autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
  18. ^ "El PSOE aventaja al PP en más de ocho puntos, según el Estudio de Opinión Pública de Andalucía". ABC Córdoba (in Spanish). 31 January 2004.
  19. ^ "Dos sondeos dan al PSOE el mejor resultado en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 24 November 2003.
  20. ^ a b "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2003 (Enero, 2004)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 19 January 2004.
  21. ^ "Una encuesta da una ventaja de 9,5 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2004.
  22. ^ "Un sondeo del PP le otorga los mismos escaños que al PSOE en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
  23. ^ "Un sondeo encargado por el PP da una ventaja de 3,3 puntos al PSOE en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 31 October 2003.
  24. ^ "El PSOE superaría en 8 puntos al PP si las autonómicas fuesen hoy". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
  25. ^ "El PP recorta en 4 puntos la distancia al PSOE, que seguiría ganando las elecciones". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
  26. ^ "La Encuesta de Opinión de Andalucía sitúa al PSOE 8 puntos sobre el PP en las autonómicas". El País (in Spanish). 30 September 2003.
  27. ^ "Tres sondeos coinciden en la mayoría absoluta del PSOE". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
  28. ^ "Todas las encuestas del 28-F coinciden en dar mayoría absoluta al PSOE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2003.
  29. ^ "El PSOE abre una brecha de 20 puntos con el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
  30. ^ a b c "Encuesta febrero 2003. Andalucía" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
  31. ^ a b "El PSOE ganaría por mayoría absoluta y el PP sufriría un retroceso en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
  32. ^ a b "Una encuesta del PP sitúa a su partido a sólo 3,4 puntos de los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
  33. ^ "El PP admite que su principal déficit para ganar a los socialistas está en Sevilla". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 26 February 2003.
  34. ^ "El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 February 2003.
  35. ^ a b c d "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2002 (Diciembre, 2002)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 21 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 19 March 2015.
  36. ^ "El barométro del IESA da una ventaja de 12,7 puntos al PSOE sobre el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 22 February 2003.
  37. ^ "Un estudio electoral da al PSOE 12,5 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 10 November 2002.
  38. ^ a b "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Andalucía (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
  39. ^ "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
  40. ^ "El PSOE volvería a ganar las autonómicas con 7,8 puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
  41. ^ "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
  42. ^ "El PSOE, satisfecho por su primer puesto en los sondeos y el PP, por acortar distancia". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
  43. ^ "Todas las encuestas dan vencedor al PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2002.
  44. ^ "Un sondeo del PP augura un empate a escaños con el PSOE en Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
  45. ^ "El PSOE aventaja en 12,3 puntos al PP en intención directa de voto en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
  46. ^ a b c "Informe. Intención de voto Andalucía. Febrero 2002" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 28 February 2002. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
  47. ^ "Un sondeo del PSOE andaluz señala una ventaja de 10 puntos sobre el PP en intención de voto". El País (in Spanish). 9 February 2002.
  48. ^ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2001 (Noviembre-Diciembre, 2001)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 22 February 2002.
  49. ^ "Un sondeo del IESA da 11 puntos de ventaja al PSOE sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 23 February 2002.
  50. ^ "Una encuesta de la CEA refleja la pérdida de dos escaños del PSOE en Sevilla y Huelva". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
  51. ^ a b "Un sondeo de la CEA otorga al PSOE una nueva victoria electoral". El País (in Spanish). 21 November 2001.
  52. ^ "El PSOE dice que aventaja al PP en 16,8 puntos, según su encuesta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 July 2001.
  53. ^ "Mayoría absoluta para el PSOE en Andalucía, según un sondeo de Sigma 2 para ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
  54. ^ "El PSOE saca 11 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo del IESA". El País (in Spanish). 25 February 2001.
  55. ^ "El 70,7 por ciento de los andaluces aprueba el trabajo de la Junta, según el Instituto de Estudios de la Sociedad Andaluza". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 February 2003.
  56. ^ "El PSOE baja 11,5 puntos en intención de voto en Andalucía y supera sólo en uno al PP". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2001.
  57. ^ "El PSOE quita importancia al sondeo que le sitúa sólo un punto por encima del PP". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2001.
  58. ^ a b "El 65,1% cree que Chaves ganará las elecciones, frente a un 14,6% que opina que Teófila Martínez". El País (in Spanish). 15 November 2003.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía (Organic Law 2) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  2. ^ a b c Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 1) (in Spanish). 2 January 1986. Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  3. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. ^ a b Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma (Law 6) (in Spanish). 21 July 1983. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  5. ^ a b Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma (Law 1) (in Spanish). 30 January 1990. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley 6/1994, de 18 de mayo, de Modificación de la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma, y la Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 6) (in Spanish). 18 May 1994. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  7. ^ Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  8. ^ "El debate de los candidatos a la Junta andaluza será el 4 de marzo". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 11 February 2004. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  9. ^ "Los medios de comunicación dan a Teófila una ajustada victoria". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 6 March 2004. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  10. ^ a b c "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  11. ^ a b "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2004. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  12. ^ a b "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 14 March 2004" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. 30 March 2004. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
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