Football Outsiders
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This article relies on references to primary sources or sources affiliated with the subject, rather than references from independent authors and third-party publications. Please add citations from reliable sources. (October 2008) |
Football Outsiders (FO) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.
In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports.com to cross-publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports.com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN.com. In 2008 and 2009 the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content.
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[edit] History
Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which was using an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run. Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.
Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac (ISBN 1448648459).
Currently, the site has incorporated the entire 1992-2011 NFL seasons into their statistics.
[edit] Key Metrics
Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different metrics.
[edit] DVOA
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."[1]
There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return." [2]
[edit] DYAR
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play average. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-average level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, an average level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."[3]
[edit] Adjusted Line Yards
Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."[4]
[edit] Drive Stats
Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."[5]
[edit] DVOA Results
Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1992-2011.
| = Team Won Super Bowl | |
| = Team Got First Overall Draft Pick in following year's draft |
[edit] Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac
From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began. It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.
In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:
So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?
For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.[26]
[edit] Management
Editor-in-Chief: Aaron Schatz
Assistant Editors: Rivers McCown, Danny Tuccitto
Senior Writers: Doug Farrar, Mike Tanier
Technical Director: Elias Holman
[edit] Books
- Pro Football Forecast 2004[27] (ISBN 1574886584)
- Pro Football Prospectus 2005 (ISBN 0761140190)
- Pro Football Prospectus 2006 (ISBN 0761142177)
- Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (ISBN 0452288479)
- Pro Football Prospectus 2008 (ISBN 0452289734)
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 (ISBN 1448648459)
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 (ISBN 1453671188)
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (ISBN 1466246133)
[edit] Citations
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA explained
- ^ Football Outsider: Special Teams
- ^ Football Outsiders: DYAR explained
- ^ Football Outsiders: Adjusted Line Yards explained
- ^ Football Outsiders: Drive Stats
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2011
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2010
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2009
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2008
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2007
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2006
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2005
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2004
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2003
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2002
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2001
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2000
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1999
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1998
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1997
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1996
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1994
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1994
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1993
- ^ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1992
- ^ As quoted in "Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Interview With Aaron Schatz," Boston Sports Media Watch (July 29, 2009).
- ^ Much of this volume was written by Football Outsiders (FO) authors, but the book itself is not officially a FO publication. See "Pro Football Prospectus 2004: The Lost Year".
[edit] General references
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This section includes a list of references, related reading or external links, but its sources remain unclear because it lacks inline citations. Please improve this article by introducing more precise citations. (May 2011) |
- Bob Glauber, "Glauber's NFL Hot Reads," Newsday.com (September 1, 2009).
- "Football Outsider: Football Statistics from Outside the Box—An Interview with Aaron Schatz," SportsTechNow.com (January 25, 2008).
- Will Leitch, "A Conversation with Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz," Deadspin, August 26, 2009.
- "Q.&A. with Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders," in The Fifth Down, New York Times N.F.L. Blog, New York Times, September 21, 2009.
