Slovenian parliamentary election, 2014

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Slovenian parliamentary election, 2014
Slovenia
2011 ←
13 July 2014

All 90 seats to the National Assembly
46 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 50.99%
  First party Second party Third party
  StrankaMiraCerarjalogo.png Jansa-rumsfeld2.jpg Karl Erjavec crop.jpg
Leader Miro Cerar Janez Janša Karl Erjavec
Party SMC SDS DeSUS
Last election New 26 seats, 26.19% 6 seats, 6.97%
Seats won 36 21 10
Seat change New Decrease 5 Increase 4
Popular vote 298,342 178,294 88,026
Percentage 34.61% 20.69% 10.21%

Prime Minister before election

Alenka Bratušek
PS

Prime Minister

TBD

A parliamentary election for the 90 deputies to the National Assembly of Slovenia was held on 13 July 2014.[1] The early election, less than three years after the previous one, was called following the resignation of Alenka Bratušek's government in May. Seventeen parties participated, including seven new parties, some of which formed only months before the election took place. Party of Miro Cerar (SMC), a new party led by lawyer and professor Miro Cerar, won the election with over 34% of the vote and 36 seats. Seven political parties won seats in the National Assembly. Three political parties left the Assembly, including Zoran Janković's Positive Slovenia, the winner of the 2011 election. A leftist United Left party entered the Assembly for the first time, winning six seats.

Background[edit]

After the last election in 2011, a right-leaning five-party coalition government was formed, composing of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), Civic List (DL), Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS), Slovenian People's Party (SLS), and New Slovenia (NSi.)[2] Janez Janša, the president of the SDS, became Prime Minister.[2] Janša's government collapsed on 27 February 2013 after he was accused of corruption.[3] Janša was later sentenced to 2 years in prison, and fined €37,000.[4]

A new government was formed by Positive Slovenia (PS), the Social Democrats (SD), DL, and DeSUS.[5] PS leader Alenka Bratušek became Prime Minister.[5] On 25 April 2014, congress of Pozitivna Slovenija was held in Brdo pri Kranju. The main agenda was the election of the next president of the party. Two candidates applied for the post: previous president Zoran Janković and the incumbent Alenka Bratušek. Coalition parties SD, DL and DeSUS have threatened to leave the government if Jankovič were elected. Janković was indeed elected,[6] triggering Bratušek's formal resignation as the PM on 5 May.[7]

On 1 June 2014 president of Slovenia Borut Pahor announced the dissolution of the Assembly on 2 June and that the election would take place on 13 July.[1] Pahor's decision to call the election during a summer month triggered some opposition from civil initiatives,[8] however, the Constitutional Court of Slovenia backed the election date.[9][10]

Several new political parties entered the election, including Party of Miro Cerar (SMC) which was formally established on 2 June,[11] and Alliance of Alenka Bratušek (ZaAB), a splinter party from Positive Slovenia, that was established on 31 May.[12] United Left, Verjamem, and the Pirate Party took place for the first time in the European Parliament election on 25 May and participated in the national election as well.[13][14] Solidarity Party agreed to enter the election together with Social Democrats,[15] which earlier entered into an alliance with DeSUS, albeit with separate candidates lists.[16]

Janez Janša began serving his two-year prison sentence on 20 June,[17] which, according to the media, influenced the campaign of his party.[18]

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm SMC PS SDS SD DL DeSUS SLS NSi ZL ZaAB Others Lead
13 Jul Election Results 34.5 3.0 20.7 6.0 0.6 10.2 4.0 5.6 6.0 4.4 5.8 13.8
13 Jul (19:00) Mediana 36.9 2.8 19.2 5.8 0.6 9.7 3.3 5.4 7.1 4.7 4.5 17.7
Exit polls
9–11 Jul Ninamedia[a] 31.0 3.3 26.1 8.8 11.5 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.9 4.9
5–11 Jul Episcentra 33.4 1.5 21.3 9.3 0.1 10.3 4.2 6.3 4.2 5.9 3.6 12.1
8–10 Jul Ninamedia[a] 30.8 2.4 28.4 8.8 11.2 2.7 4.6 2.7 3.6 4.7 2.4
7–10 Jul Mediana 32.4 4.0 23.7 5.9 0.8 12.2 3.7 5.7 2.9 3.0 6.2 8.7
2–9 Jul Episcentra 33.6 1.2 24.0 8.2 0.2 10.5 4.5 6.1 2.7 5.4 3.3 9.6
6–8 Jul Ninamedia[a] 31.8 2.4 24.9 6.7 0.2 13.4 3.5 4.5 2.9 4.0 5.7 6.9
30 Jun–8 Jul Episcentra 34.5 1.9 25.5 6.9 0.4 9.8 4.3 5.4 2.5 5.0 4.0 9.0
4–6 Jul Ninamedia[a] 34.3 3.4 25.2 5.2 0.2 10.7 3.2 6.7 2.4 3.4 5.4 9.1
30 Jun–5 Jul Episcentra 36.8 2.4 25.0 7.3 0.2 9.1 4.7 5.0 1.3 4.1 4.1 11.8
2–3 Jul RM Plus[a] 33.3 3.1 28.1 5.5 0.2 8.7 2.2 7.1 2.2 3.5 3.0 5.2
26 Jun–2 Jul Episcentra 38.5 3.1 25.1 6.2 0.2 8.7 4.1 5.6 1.2 3.5 3.7 13.4
30 Jun–1 Jul UvNG 37.3 2.3 24.5 9.6 0.6 10.6 2.9 4.4 2.8 2.0 2.8 12.8
25–28 Jun Episcentra 37.9 3.3 25.0 5.9 0.0 9.6 5.2 5.1 1.6 2.7 5.3 12.9
23–26 Jun Mediana 33.9 20.6 10.5 <1.5 8.4 5.1 3.3 2.7 4.8 >9.2 13.3
22–25 Jun Ninamedia 31.2 3.8 29.5 8.7 0.9 7.2 3.0 6.5 2.6 3.6 3.0 1.7
9–14 Jun Episcentra[a] 35.2 2.0 23.6 8.1 0.7 8.4 3.2 6.8 2.8 2.5 6.6 11.6
10–11 Jun Mediana[a] 30.0 3.3 23.4 10.9 1.1 9.2 5.1 5.1 2.2 2.5 7.5 6.6
25 May EP Election 6.6 24.8 8.1 1.1 8.1 16.6 5.5 29.2 8.2
15–17 Apr Ninamedia[a] 12.7 26.7 27.4 3.2 10.4 5.9 7.2 0.7 5.7 0.7
8–16 Apr Episcentra[a] 8.3 24.7 24.2 2.1 5.0 5.8 6.9 4.2[b] 18.9 0.5
18–20 Mar Ninamedia[a] 9.6 29.8 23.8 2.3 10.9 5.4 6.9 4.0 7.3 6.0
14–19 Mar Episcentra[a] 5.7 23.8 24.0 5.5 8.0 4.2 8.4 5.9[b] 14.6 0.2
18–20 Feb Ninamedia[a] 11.1 24.4 23.3 2.6 15.9 7.4 9.4 6.2 1.1
10–14 Feb FUDŠ[a] 12.5 25.7 21.4 2.0 14.2 4.0 4.3 16.1 4.3
24–26 Jan RM Plus[a] 18.9 30.6 20.2 2.3 9.7 3.8 5.1 9.4 10.4
13–22 Jan Episcentra[a] 8.2 16.6 26.6 3.0 9.7 6.9 6.0 22.9 10.0
14–16 Jan Ninamedia[a] 15.0 20.9 26.7 3.4 12.2 6.8 9.0 6.2 5.8
13–16 Jan Slovenian Beat[a] 14.2 19.9 23.3 1.0 7.4 3.4 7.8 22.9 3.4
2014
20–21 Dec RM Plus[a] 12.6 32.0 18.5 3.9 11.5 2.8 7.0 11.8 13.5
9–17 Dec Episcentra[a] 8.5 17.7 28.4 2.3 9.0 4.2 8.9 21.2 10.7
2013
4 Dec 2011 Election Results 28.5 26.2 10.5 8.4 7.0 6.8 4.9 7.7 2.3
Notes
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s This survey shows its poll results without disregarding those who are undecided or said they will abstain from voting (either physically or by voting blank). In order to obtain results comparable to other surveys and the official election results, the result shown in this table will be that obtained, with a simple rule of three, from disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals offered in the survey.
  2. ^ a b As the sum of its constituent parties.

Results[edit]

The Party of Miro Cerar (SMC) won a plurality in the election by a large margin with 36 seats. The only party that managed to win a higher percentage of the votes was Janez Drnovšek's Liberal Democracy of Slovenia at the 2000 election.[19] Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) came second, losing 5 seats in comparison with the 2011 election. The difference between the first two parties turned out to be higher than most of opinion polls predicted. DeSUS placed third with 10 seats, the best result in party's history. United Left won 6 seats, with tracking polls showing gaining the momentum in the last days before the election.[20] The Social Democrats lost 4 seats and obtained their worst election result.[21] New Slovenia won an additional mandate and the Alliance of Alenka Bratušek managed to win 4 seats. The Slovenian People's Party, Positive Slovenia (the winner of the 2011 election), and Civic List all failed to retain seats in the Assembly. All other parties also failed to reach the 4% threshold. Turnout was slightly below 51%, the lowest since Slovenian independence.[22] On the other hand, a record 3.9% of voters voted in the early election.[23]

In accordance with the Constitution of Slovenia, two seats are allocated to the Italian and Hungarian national communities, with one representative given to each community. Members of the Italian community elected Roberto Battelli as their representative, and members of the Hungarian community elected László Göncz. They were the sole candidates.[24]

Following the results, Miro Cerar (the likely new Prime Minister[25]) stated he perceives the large public support as a responsibility. He said he was open to enter coallition talks with all parties, except the SDS, which is "directly undermining the rule of legal institutions".[26] Zvonko Černač of SDS said in his first reaction that the party considers the election result as illegitimate, since the party president was in prison for corruption after what SDS considered a politically motivated process.[27] Karl Erjavec of DeSUS stated that the party is ready to enter the coallition talks and that they will protect the pension funds. United Left, which was positively surprised by their result, stated that they are willing to participate in a government, although they won't compromise on their political programme.[26] Dejan Židan of the Social Democrats was disappointed with the results, saying he had expected SD to score higher. New Slovenia and ZaAB both perceived their results as a success. Franc Bogovič of the Slovenian People's Party was surprised by the fact that the party missed the required 4% of the vote, albeit only barely, and stated that he will not run for the party president at the congress.[26]

International media noted that the winner of the election is a political newcomer and that his success is "punishment by voters for the traditional parties, tarnished by corruption scandals and years of economic turmoil".[28] Cerar was seen as a politician untarnished by the corruption scandals.[29] Media also noted that Cerar opposes selling controlling stakes of strategic infrastructure, such as telecoms provider Telekom Slovenia and the international airport, Aerodrom Ljubljana, and stressed that one of his main tasks will be to reduce the national budget deficit.[28] Croatian media drew parallels between Cerar and Drnovšek, hoping that Cerar will return political culture, tolerance, and mutual respect into Slovenian politics.[28][30] Jutarnji List saw the main reason for the defeat of SDS in the fact that the party has relied too much on the imprisoned party president.[28] The Wall Street Journal stated that the most likely coallition partners would be the Social Democrats and DeSUS[31] while Slovenian journal Finance suggested that the best coallition would be with the Social Democrats, New Slovenia, and ZaAB.[32]


e • d  Summary of the 13 July 2014 National Assembly election results in Slovenia
Party Vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Elect. +/−
Party of Miro Cerar (SMC) 301,563 34.49 New 36 New
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) 181,052 20.71 -5.48 21 −5
Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) 88,968 10.18 +3.21 10 +4
Social Democrats (SD) 52,249 5.98 −4.54 6 −4
United Left (ZL) 52,189 5.97 New 6 New
New Slovenia (NSi) 48,846 5.59 +0.74 5 +1
Alliance of Alenka Bratušek (ZaAB) 38,293 4.38 New 4 New
Slovenian People's Party (SLS) 34,548 3.95 −2.88 0 −6
Positive Slovenia (PS) 25,975 2.97 −25.54 0 −28
Slovenian National Party (SNS) 19,218 2.20 +0.40 0 ±0
Slovenian Pirate Party (PSS) 11,737 1.34 New 0 New
Verjamem (VERJAMEM) 6,800 0.78 New 0 New
Civic List (DL) 5,556 0.64 −7.73 0 −8
Greens of Slovenia (ZS) 4,629 0.53 +0.17 0 ±0
Equal Land - Forward Slovenia (ED-NS) 2,125 0.24 New 0 New
Economically Liberal Party (LGS) 458 0.05 New 0 New
Party of Humane Slovenia (SHS) 85 0.01 −0.02 0 ±0
Hungarian and Italian minorities 2 ±0
Total 885,860 100.00 90 ±0
Valid votes 874,291 98.70 98.69%
Invalid / blank votes 11,569 1.31 −0.41
Votes cast / turnout 885,860 51.73 −13.87
Abstentions 827,207 48.27 +13.87
Registered voters 1,713,067
Source: Ministry of the Interior (100.00% counted.)


Vote share
SMC
  
34.49%
SDS
  
20.71%
DeSUS
  
10.18%
SD
  
5.98%
ZL
  
5.97%
NSi
  
5.59%
ZaAB
  
4.38%
SLS
  
3.95%
PS
  
2.97%
SNS
  
2.20%
PSS
  
1.34%
Others
  
2.25%
Parliamentary seats
SMC
  
40.00%
SDS
  
23.33%
DeSUS
  
11.11%
SD
  
6.67%
ZL
  
6.67%
NSi
  
5.56%
ZaAB
  
4.44%
Minorities
  
2.22%

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "Pahor predčasne volitve razpisal za 13. julij, Solidarnost že napovedala ustavno presojo | Dnevnik". Dnevnik.si. 2014-04-28. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
  2. ^ a b Slovenian Press Agency (7 February 2012). "Enter the Political Year of the Dragon". Slovenia Times. 
  3. ^ Znotraj DZ-ja jasna podpora, zunaj njega odzivi mešani :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija
  4. ^ BBC News – Ex-Slovenian PM Janez Jansa convicted of corruption
  5. ^ a b "Optimizem po prvih pogovorih pri Bratuškovi :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija". Rtvslo.si. 27 February 2013. 
  6. ^ "Slovenia government facing collapse as PM loses party leadership". The Guardian. Associated Press. 26 April 2014. 
  7. ^ "Bratuškova bo danes odstopila". Delo.si. 2014-05-03. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
  8. ^ Avtor Marko Kovačevič, Vanessa Čokl. "Večer: Prva pobuda proti julijskim volitvam: bi lahko bilo sporno Pahorjevo skrajšanje 30 dni?". Nov.vecer.com. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
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  10. ^ "Ustavno sodišče zavrglo in zavrnilo pobude: volitve bodo 13. julija". Delo.si. 2014-05-25. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
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  12. ^ ""Želim, da ob dveh črkah ne vidite le mojega imena, ampak začetnici abecede" :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija". Rtvslo.si. 2014-05-31. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
  13. ^ "Združena levica: Levica je že povezana". Delo.si. Retrieved 2014-07-09. 
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  20. ^ 14.7.2014. "Zadnji »tracking poll« Mladinine predvolilne ankete: zmaga Mira Cerarja in preboj malih strank". Mladina.Si. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  21. ^ "Državnozborske volitve v številkah (infografike) | Dnevnik". Dnevnik.si. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
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  23. ^ "DVK: Rekordna udeležba na predčasnih volitvah – 3,90 odstotka volivcev :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija". Rtvslo.si. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  24. ^ "Republic of Slovenia Early Elections for Deputies to the National Assembly 2014". Volitve.gov.si. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  25. ^ 14.7.2014. "Neuradni rezultati: Cerar najverjetnejši novi premier". Mladina.Si. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
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  28. ^ a b c d Novak, Marja. "Political novice wins power in Slovenia, hints at revisiting economic reform plan". Reuters. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  29. ^ "Exit polls: Cerar wins Slovenia parliamentary elections | News | DW.DE | 13.07.2014". DW.DE. 2012-01-31. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  30. ^ Piše: Hina Objavljeno prije 7 sati (2014-07-09). "Neki ga nazivaju novim Drnovšekom: Tko je Miro Cerar? – Vijesti". Index.hr. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  31. ^ Rousek, Leos. "Recently Formed Center-Left Party Wins Slovenian Parliamentary Election – WSJ". Online.wsj.com. Retrieved 2014-07-14. 
  32. ^ "Tuji mediji o volitvah v Sloveniji: Zmagal je novinec :: Prvi interaktivni multimedijski portal, MMC RTV Slovenija". Rtvslo.si. 2012-09-21. Retrieved 2014-07-14.