Single-bullet theory

The Single Bullet Theory (also known pejoratively as the magic bullet theory by the majority of critics and conspiracy theorists) is thought to be the crucial element of the Warren Commission theory that only one assassin was responsible for the assassination of United States President John F. Kennedy.

The theory, generally credited to Warren Commission staffer Arlen Specter (now a US Senator), posits that a single bullet, known as "Warren Commission Exhibit 399" (also known as "CE399"), caused all of the non-fatal wounds in both President John F. Kennedy and Governor John Connally. The fatal head wound to the President was caused by another bullet. It is an important theory because its plausibility has been a popular point of contention. The 1979 House Select Committee on Assassinations Report agreed with the theory, but differed on the time frame.

Location of back wound

President Kennedy's Death Certificate places the bullet wound to Kennedy's back at the third thoracic vertebra. [1] The death certificate was signed by Dr. Geoffrey Burkley, the President's personal physician. The autopsy report and photos and autopsy X-rays show a bullet hole at the sixth cervical vertebra — much higher in the back (and technically in the neck, since the neck begins with the seventh cervical vertebal bone and this wound is above that level). The bullet hole in the shirt worn by Kennedy [2] and the bullet hole in the suit jacket worn by Kennedy [3] both show bullet holes between 5 and 6 inches below the top of Kennedy's collar [4]. These do not necessarily correspond with bullet wounds, since Kennedy was struck with his arm raised, and multiple photos taken of the president during the motorcade show that his jacket was bunched in the rear below his collar [5].

The theory of a "single bullet" places a bullet wound as shown in the autopsy photos and X-rays, at the sixth cervical vertebra of the vertebral column. The official autopsy report on the president, Warren Exhibit CE 386 [6] described the back wound as being oval, 6 x 4 mm, and located "above the upper border of the scapula" [shoulder blade] at a location 14 cm (5.5 in.) from the tip of the right acromion process, and 14 cm (5.5 in.) below the right mastoid process (the boney prominence behind the ear). The report also reported contusion (bruise) of the apex (top tip) of the right lung in the region where it rises above the clavicle, and noted that although the apex of the right lung and the parietal pleural membrane over it had been bruised, they were not penetrated. The report also noted that the thoracic cavity was not penetrated. See Warren Exhibit CE 386 [7].

The concluding page of the Bethesda autopsy report [8] states: "The other missile [referring to the body-penetrating bullet] entered the right superior posterior thorax above the scapula, and traversed the soft tissues of the supra-scapular and the supra-clavicular portions of the base of the right side of the neck. This missile produced contusions of the right apical parietal pleura and of the apical portion of the right upper lobe of the lung. The missile contused the strap muscles of the right side of the neck, damaged the trachea, and made its exit through the anterior surface of the neck."

Many years after the Warren Commission report, Representative Gerald Ford stated he changed a draft of the Warren Report to indicate the bullet entered the President's neck, rather than his back, but said he did not do it as part of a conspiracy. [9]. However, the original Bethesda autopsy report, included in the Warren Commission report, did conclude from the data it had, that this bullet passed above the top of the lung outside the thoracic pleura, and therefore through the president's neck. [10].

The conclusion of bullet entry specifically at the sixth cervical vertebra was made in a 1979 report on the Kennedy assassination by the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA), which noted a defect in the C6 vertebra in the Bethesda X-rays, which the Bethesda autopsy physicians had missed. Moreover, this position is consistent with publicly available autopsy photographs [11] although these themselves have been disputed because they have not officially been released and therefore, cannot be confirmed. However, the HSCA did examine these photographs and X-rays before rendering its opinions as to bullet entry and exit locations, and obtained testimony from autopsy physicians that these were the correct photographs and X-rays taken during the autopsy.

Importance of bullet entry level to theory

The importance of how low or high the bullet struck the President in the back is a matter of possible geometry. The Sibert/O'Neill FBI autopsy report original made by two FBI agents (Special Agents James W. Sibert and Francis X. O'Neill) present at the autopsy preserves genuine medical doctor confusion present actually during the autopsy, caused by apparent lack of an exit wound, which was cleared up later in the official report after new and more complete information became available (the exit had been hidden by a tracheotomy incission). This report does note that the doctor (Commander Humes) at the time said that he was unable to locate an "outlet" for the wound in Kennedy's shoulder (not his back).

At the time of the autopsy (toward the autopsy end) initial probing of the shoulder wound suggested the bullet entered the base of Kennedy's neck at a 45 to 60 degree angle. However, this angle is precluded by geometry since the shooter to get such a steep angle would have to be standing on the back of the limousine — and be invisible since he is seen by no one. The bullet is believed to have been shot from the sixth floor [~60 feet up] of the Texas Book depository and traveled horizontally ~200 feet at ~16 degree angle [arctan(60/200)]. The street sloped at about 3 degrees away from the Book depository making a total angle of about 20 degrees. However, a bullet entering the President's back at the location shown in the preceding autopsy photograph about 1.5 inches below the collar line, passing over the top of the right lung, and exiting at the throat tracheostomy incission wound in the President, as theorized in the "single bullet theory" of the Warren Report could have caused all of the damage done to Kennedy and John Connally.

The oval entrance wound and large exit wound observed on Connally's back and chest are consistent with the bullet tumbling slightly on exiting Kennedy's throat (a very common occurrence) and entering Connally at a slight sidewise angle consistent with the flattening of the base observed in the retrieved bullet [CE399] — it hit the ribs and wrist going partially sideways. The weight of bullet CE399 was reported in the Warren Commission Report as 158.6 grains compared to a nominal bullet weight of other bullets from the same manufacturer of 161 +/-.2 grains. The lead fragments retrieved from Connally's broken wrist were about 2.1 grains again consistent with the bullet losing some lead from its exposed lead base in traversing and breaking Connally's rib and wrist. A Mexican gold five peso cuff link was also shot away from Connally's wrist (it was never recovered). Similar, only slightly damaged bullets have been observed when the bullet does not hit hard bone on initial impact — see the Discovery Channel report and experiments discussed later here. CE399 was ballistically matched to the rifle found in the Texas Schoolbook Depository, to the exclusion of all other rifles.

Theorized path of the bullet CE399

CE399 side view

The following description assumes that bullet CE399 hit high, at the sixth cervical vertebra rather than the third thoracic vertebra: The 6.5 millimeter, 161 grain, round nose military style full metal jacket bullet, which was manufactured by the "Western Case Cartridge Company" and later stored nearly whole in the U.S. National Archives, was first theorized by the Warren Commission to have:

• after an initial supersonic rifle exit muzzle velocity of 1850 to 2000 feet per second (560 to 610 m/s), very slightly ballistically arced while traveling 189 ft (58 m) in a downward net angle of 25 degrees (allowing for the 3 degrees downward of Elm Street) then entered President Kennedy's rear suit coat at about 1700 feet per second (518 m/s),

• passed through President Kennedy's suit coat back, just to the right of his spine, and 5.375 inches (137 mm) below his collar line,

• impacted, then entered President Kennedy 2 inches [50 mm] to the right of his spine, creating a wound documented size of 4 millimeters by 7 millimeters in the rear of his upper back with a red-brown to black area of skin surrounding the wound, forming what is called an abrasion collar. This abrasion collar was caused by the bullet's scraping the margins of the skin on penetration and is characteristic of a gunshot wound of entrance. This abrasion collar was photographically documented to be larger at the lower margin half of the wound, which is strong evidence that the bullet's long-axis orientation at the instant of penetration was slightly upward in relation to the plane of the skin immediately surrounding the wound; however, the skin of Kennedy's upper back slopes inward, and the Croft photo (shot shortly before Kennedy was hit) shows Kennedy slumped forward, both of which would suggest that a shooting position above Kennedy is possible,

• the bullet's passage near the spine slightly fractured a transverse process of the president's sixth cervical vertebra, C-6. (there is debate whether the C-6 spinal vertebra seen in the x-rays was fractured directly when the bullet struck the vertebra, or, whether the pressure cavity wave the bullet caused during its passage fractured the spinal vertebra),

• passed through his neck. Warren Exhibit CE 386 [12] reported contusion (bruise) of the apex (top tip) of the right lung in the region where it rises above the clavicle, and noted that although the apex of the right lung and the parietal pleural membrane over it had been bruised, they were not penetrated. This is consistent with a bullet passing through the neck, immediately over the top tip of the right lung (the pressure wave causing bruising to both pleural membrane and apex of lung), but without penetrating the thoracic cavity, or the lung beneath. After passing through the neck, the bullet

• exited President Kennedy's throat, at the centerline below the President's Adam's apple (also called laryngeal prominence or thyroid cartilage). Within three hours of the assassination, this neck frontal wound was described in an afternoon press conference by the Parkland trauma room #1 emergency physician, Doctor Malcolm Perry, after he attended to the frontal throat wound, as being an "entrance wound". Doctor Perry stated the neck frontal wound was an "entrance" wound three times during his press conference. However, medical researchers have found that ER doctors frequently make mistakes with regard to entrance and exit wounds, and both Parry and Dr. Carrico, the other attending ER doctor, later testified at the Warren hearing that with a full jacketted bullet the wound in the front of the throat could have been either and entrance or exit wound. p 89. Within nineteen hours of his press conference statement (but unfortunately after the autopsy had already been completed), Doctor Perry also described via telephone to Doctor Humes, one of the three U.S. Navy Bethesda Hospital military autopsists, that the neck front wound was originally only "3 to 5 millimeters" in circular width before doctor Perry attended to the front throat wound (Humes documented Perry's "3 to 5 millimeters" wound size by writing it down during the phone conversation),

• passed through both sides of his shirt collar-front in alignment with the collar button buttoned, about 7/8 inch below the center top collar button and collar button hole, in line with the throat wound, and with the threads in both bullet-slits forced outward, showing this to be an exit wound p 92.

• nicked President Kennedy's tie-knot on its upper left side. Upon clearing the tie-knot the bullet had slowed to about 1500 feet per second (457 m/s) and had started to tumble,

• traveled the 25.5 inches (650 mm) between President Kennedy and Governor Connally,

• according to the single bullet theory, this bullet impacted then entered Connally's back just below and behind his right armpit creating an 8 millimeter by 15 millimeter elliptical wound, indicating that bullet was fired from an acute angle to the entrance wound point, or that the bullet was tumbling, having hit something (presumably Kennedy); according to Gov. Connally, the impact of the bullet was very forceful. In terms of the physics of this impact, this means that the bullet imparted momemtum to Connally's body and therefore the bullet's momentum changed significantly (in speed or direction or both) upon entering his body;

• completely destroyed 127 millimeters (5 in) of Connally's fifth right rib bone as it smashed through his chest interior at a documented 10-degree anatomically downward angle, (post-operative x-rays document that some of the metal fragments remained in Connally for life, and were buried with him many years later)

• exited slightly below his right nipple, creating a 50 millimeter, sucking-air, blowout chest wound,

• passed through Connally's shirt and suit coat front, seen in commission photos five inches (127 mm) to the right of the suit coat right lapel, and even with the lowest point of the right lapel,

• now slowed to 900 feet per second (274 m/s) (subsonic), the bullet entered through Connally's right upper (outside) wrist, but missed his suit coat sleeve and shirt sleeve at the wrist area (in 2003 Nellie Connally described in her book “From Love Field” that Connally's right hand, French cuff shirt cuff, solid-gold “Mexican peso” cufflink was struck with a bullet and the cufflink was completely shot off during the attack. Connally’s cufflink was never found — thus never entered — into the assassination evidence)

• broke his right radius wrist bone at its widest point, depositing metal fragments, (post-operative x-rays document that some of the metal fragments are still buried with him)

• exited the palm (inner) side of Connally's wrist,

• now slowed to 400 feet per second (122 m/s), the bullet entered the front side of his left thigh, creating a documented 10-millimeter nearly round wound,

• buried itself shallowly into Connally's left thigh muscles,

• then, at Parkland Hospital, the bullet fell out, perhaps when Connally was undressed,

• landed on a stretcher that Connally had presumably lain upon,

• was discovered by hospital engineer Darrell C. Tomlinson on one of two stretchers on the ground floor of the hospital. Tomlinson was not sure which stretcher the bullet was from, but one of the two had recently been used to transfer Connally to an operating room table on the second floor of the hospital. pp 79-81

Of the bullet that he remembered impacting his back Connally has stated, "...the most curious discovery of all took place when they rolled me off the stretcher and onto the examining table. A metal object fell to the floor, with a click no louder than a wedding band. The nurse picked it up and slipped it into her pocket. It was the bullet from my body, the one that passed through my back, chest, and wrist, and worked itself loose from my thigh." This recollection of a severely wounded man has not been corroborated by any source.

The Warren Commission's "single bullet," according to all documentation:

• had no thread striations (fine lines etched onto a copper encased bullet tip and/or bullet side casing by clothing threads when the bullet first penetrates clothing threads),

• was marked with no blood,

• was marked with no human tissue,

• had no pieces of clothing attached,

• had lost only 1.5% of its original average weight,

• was shown by testing to be a perfect match for the metal fragments recovered from Connally himself, to the exclusion of all other bullets, thus providing near-irrefutable proof that this bullet struck Connally.

CE399 butt view

This "single bullet," which was full metal jacketed and specifically designed to pass through the human body, was deformed and not in a pristine state as some detractors claim. Though a side view seems to show no visible damage, a view from the end of the bullett shows a significant flattening which occurred when the bullet struck Connally's wrist butt end first.

Several of the exact same type 6.5 millimeter test bullets were test-fired by the Warren Commission investigators. The only test bullet that most matched the slight side flattening and nearly pristine, still rounded impact tip of CE399 was a bullet that had only been fired into a long tube containing a thick layer of cotton. (later tests show that such bullets survive intact when fired into solid wood and multiple layers of skin and ballistic gel, as well — see Discovery Channel reference below).

CE399 is stored out of the public's view in the National Archives and Records Administration, though numerous pictures of the bullet are available on the NARA website.

Ballistics experts have performed test shots through animal flesh and bones with cloth covering. Under the assumption of an adjusted relative position of President Kennedy and Governor Connally within the car, some, but not all, of the Warren Commission ballistics experts considered it possible that the same bullet that passed through the president's neck may have caused all of the governor's wounds. The Warren Commission as a whole wrote that it was persuaded that the President's neck wound and all of the governor's wounds were caused by a single bullet.

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If one rejects the Single Bullet Theory and maintains the view that Gov. Connally was hit in the chest by frame 230 of the Zapruder film (a fact that the FBI only conceded after expert testimony from Robert Frazier - they originally thought he was wounded much later around z270) one has to posit at least one additional shot in Dealey Plaza. If a bullet exiting Kennedy's throat did not wound Connally, then another shooter behind both men (given the fact that Connally's back wound is one of entrance) had to have fired a bullet that hit Connally. The vast majority of witnesses claim to have heard three or fewer shots, but there are some witnesses who allege at least four shots, and a few who claim five or more shots were fired that day.

Those disputing the single bullet theory must also deal with the fact that bullet fragments found in the wounds and the car have not been conclusively shown to have arisen from a third bullet (ie the second bullet fired). In this case, the fragments found in Connally's wrist could have come from CE399. This may or may not be significant, because it is not possible to prove conclusively whether bullet fragments are from the same bullet. Since they dispute that the bullet that broke his wrist was the one found in Parkland, and since his wrist was not hanging out of the car or raised above the car at the time of the shooting, one would have expected this additional bullet to have either struck someone else in the car or to have struck the car itself.

Although the bullet that passed through the President's neck must have struck either the car or an occupant, it would have been moving right to left. If it struck the governor it either struck his right armpit or his thigh or both as there was no direct path to his wrist. While it is possible that the bullet which struck Connally's back and wrist deflected from the wrist and exited the side of the car, no such bullet was searched for or ever found. However, as the single bullet theory requires that one of the three shots missed the car and occupants completely it must be pointed out that no evidence of that missed shot has ever been found either.

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Discovery Channel's reenactment of bullet CE399's path

A Discovery Channel special Unsolved History: JFK — Beyond the Magic Bullet attempted to replicate, as well as possible, the conditions of that day. The participants set up blocks of ballistics gel with a substance similar to human bone inside. These studies showed that largely undeformed bullets were possible to produce, if they were slowed by a passage though a tissue-like substance before striking bone. Next, two mannequin figures made of ballistic anatomical substances (animal skin, gelatin, and interior bone-like cast) were set up in the exact relative position of JFK and Connally. A marksman, from a distance equal to that of the sixth floor of the book depository building, fired the same rifle model found in the Book Depository, using a round from the same batch of the same "Western Case Cartridge Company" 6.5x52 mm ammunition purchased with the surplus Carcano weapon in early 1963 (and three expended brass and one live round from which, had been found with the Carcano, in the book depository Nov. 22, 1963). The path of their single bullet (followed by high speed photography) duplicated, almost exactly, the wounds suffered by the victims that day, the only difference being that the bullet did not quite have enough energy to penetrate the "thigh" substance in front of the Connally figure, due to striking an extra bone in the "rib" model (i.e., it fractured 2 ribs in the model vs. one rib in Connally). It was also slightly more deformed than CE 399, possibly for the same reason. However, this bullet came close enough to duplicating all wounds in both men with a single shot, with a bullet having little deformation. Thus the theory, while technically improbable, was proved to be much more plausible than previously thought [13].

ABC's "The Kennedy Assassination - Beyond Conspiracy"

In 1993 a computer animator named Dale Myers embarked on a 10-year project to completely render the events of November 22nd in 3D computer animation. His results were shown as part of ABC's documentary "The Kennedy Assassination — Beyond Conspiracy" in 2003, and won an Emmy award.

To render his animation, Myers took photographs, home footage, blueprints and plans, and used them to create arguably the most accurate computer re-creation of events to that time. His work was assessed by Z-Axis who have been involved in producing computer generated animations of events, processes and concepts for major litigations in the United States and Europe. (They participated in most of major air crash litigations in the U.S. over the past 15 years including the crash of Delta Air Lines Flight 191 in Dallas, the crash of USAir Flight 427 in Pittsburgh, the crash of American 965 in Cali, Colombia and the crash of Korean Air 801 in Guam. They also performed work for the prosecution in the Oklahoma City bombing trials of Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols. [14])

Their assessment concluded that Myers' animation allowed the assassination sequence to be viewed "from any point of view with absolute geometric integrity" and that they "believe that the thoroughness and detail incorporated into his work is well beyond that required to present a fair and accurate depiction." [15]

Myers' animation found that the bullet wounds were completely consistent with JFK's and Governor Connolly's positions at the time of shooting, and that by following the bullet's trajectory backwards could be found to have originated from a narrow cone including only a few windows of the sixth floor of the School Book Depository, one of which was the sniper's nest of boxes from which the rifle barrel had been seen protruding by witnesses.

In the same ABC documentary, Myers uses a close-up examination of the Zapruder film to justify the "single bullet theory." He points out a previously-unnoticed anomaly on the Zapruder film. When Kennedy's limousine appears from behind the street sign in Dealey Plaza, there is a moment -- seen between frames 223 and 224 on the Zapruder film -- where the right side lapel of Governor Connelly's jacket appears to "pop out," as if being pushed from within by an unseen force. Myers theorizes that this is the moment of impact, when both Kennedy and Connelly were struck by the same bullet from Oswald's rifle. Myers also points out that -- in frames 225-230 of the Zapruder film, as Kennedy appears from behind the street sign -- both Kennedy and Connelly are simultaneously reacting in pain to the impact of the bullet.

Neutron Activation Analysis

Warren Commission documents released after the publication of its report revealed that the FBI had arranged for bullet CE399 and the various fragments found in the car and in Governor Connally’s wounds to be examined using a method known as neutron activation analysis (NAA). NAA is a very accurate, non-destructive method of determining the relative concentrations of trace elements in a sample of matter. The data from the tests performed for the FBI was inconclusive as to the origins of the fragments (see: Letter from J. Edgar Hoover to Commission Counsel Lee Rankin, July 8, 1964. Exhibit F-332A, 1 HSCA 558[16]).

In 1978 the United States House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) asked physicist, Dr. Vincent P. Guinn to review the NAA data and conduct new tests. Dr. Guinn did so and presented his results and analysis to the Committee. Dr. Guinn stated that initially he agreed with the earlier conclusion. However, after examining the old and new NAA data further, he concluded that the bullet fragments fit into two distinct groups rather than three and that the fragments from Governor Connally’s wrist probably came from the whole bullet, CE399.[17]

WC Exhibit	Silver (ppm)	Antimony (ppm)
399 Whole bullet	7.9 ± 1.4	833 ± 9
567 Limousine fragment	8.1 ± 0.6	602 ± 4
843 Limousine fragment	7.9 ± 0.3	621 ± 4
842 Wrist fragment	9.8 ± 0.5	797 ± 7
840 Limousine fragment	8.6 ± 0.3	638 ± 4
- second	7.9 ± 0.5	647 ± 4
573 fragment from bullet fired at Gen. Walker 's residence	20.6 ± 0.6	17 ± 2
141 unfired bullet recovered from Oswald's rifle	-	15 ± 1
- second	22.4 ±1.0	-

The NAA data obtained from the various bullet samples (1 HSCA 538[18] and 1 HSCA 550[19])

Dr. Guinn had some difficulty in stating the precision that he could give to this probability:

Dr. GUINN. I wish that I could put a number on it, as we often can do, that is, calculate a probability, but we really don’t have the background information to make a numerical calculation in this case. One can only show what information we do have, and that is that you simply do not find a wide variation in composition within individual WCC Mannlicher-Carcano bullets, but you do find wide composition differences from bullet to bullet for this kind of bullet lead. Thus, when you find two specimens that agree this closely, you can say it looks indeed like they are pieces from the same bullet.

Mr. WOLF. Would you state that your conclusion is more probable than not, highly probable, or what is the degree of certainty of your conclusion?

Dr. GUINN. I would say highly probable, yes. I would not want to say how high, whether it was 99 percent or 90 percent or 99 .9 percent. I can’t make a calculation like that.[20]

The underlying assumption in Dr. Guinn’s analysis was that silver and antimony concentrations in the bullet lead varied significantly between bullets but not within individual bullets. Significant differences in concentrations between samples, therefore, would mean that the samples originated with different bullets. Dr. Guinn’s assumption was based on sample data that he had obtained by analysing concentrations of antimony, silver and other trace elements in Mannlicher-Carcano ammunition from Western Cartridge Co., which was the ammunition found with Oswald’s rifle. He observed that while there was some variation of concentrations within individual bullets, he found that the variation between bullets is wider.

The relatively greater heterogeneity between bullets is apparent from Dr. Guinn’s data, although it may be noted that the concentrations of antimony, for example, varied within a sample bullet by as much as 275 per cent [21]. This lack of perfect homogeneity within individual bullets was acknowledged by Dr. Guinn:

The results are shown in Table II-C[22] . As can be seen, of the three bullets sampled, one (6001 C) is fairly homogeneous in all three elements ; one (6002 A) is fairly homogeneous in Ag and Cu, but not so homogeneous in Sb ; and one (6003 A) is fairly homogeneous in Cu, but not homogeneous in Sb or Ag . However, comparison of Table II-C with Table II-A indicates that, in general, the heterogeneity within an individual Mannlicher-Carcano bullet is much less than the heterogeneity from one bullet to another. One of the primary conclusions, therefore, of the results of the UCI background study of MC bullet lead indicates a wide range of Sb values, from bullet to bullet, but reasonable homogeneity within an individual bullet.[23]

Dr. Guinn’s data and analysis provides important support for the Single Bullet Theory. If there had been greater differences in concentrations of trace elements between fragments, this would have been fatal to the SBT.

Can NAA be used to establish the SBT to a certainty?

Whether the NAA data can be used to actually exclude the possibility that there were fragments from more than two bullets in the wounds and the car has been the subject of much controversy. Professor Ken Rahn of the University of Rhode Island [24], a chemist and meteorologist who has a long standing interest in the Kennedy Assassination, maintains that the NAA data excludes a “three bullet hit” and proves the SBT actually occurred. On the other hand Dr. Arthur Snyder a physicist with the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, believes that while the data is consistent with a “two bullet” scenario, it is not possible to draw a conclusion that the data is inconsistent with a “three bullet” conclusion

Professor Rahn’s analysis can be found on his “Academic JFK Assassination Site”[25]. Essentially he says that the possibility that the wrist fragment CE842 (with an antimony concentration of 797 ± 7 ppm) did not come from the base of the whole bullet CE399 (the sample from which had an antimony concentration of 833 ± 9 ppm) is so statistically improbable as to be excluded as a reasonable possibility.

On the other hand, to Dr. Snyder, whose analysis may also be found on Prof. Rahn’s site [26] maintains that the assumption of heterogeneity between bullets cannot be true for all bullets. He points out that the range of antimony concentrations was from 0 to 1200 ppm and there are only a limited number of discrete partitions of ± 40 ppm that can fit between 0 and 1200 ppm (as in samples CE842 and CE399 which differed in antimony concentrations by 36 ppm or about 4.5 per cent). This was noted by Dr. Guinn:

However, the earlier data and these more recent data do show some Mannlicher-Carcano bullets that cannot be distinguished from one another via only their antimony and silver concentrations. From these data, it appears that if 2 cartridges are removed at random from a box of Mannlicher-Carcano cartridges, although it is highly probable that they would differ significantly in their antimony and silver concentrations, it is at least possible that they might not.

Dr. Snyder points out that the likelihood that parts of two different bullets could have silver and antimony concentrations within the observed range of difference between CE399 and CE842 must be accurately determined in order to ascribe reliable meaning to the data. Detailed repeated measurement of the base of CE399 would be especially useful to determine how homogeneous it is. He says that if the silver and antimony concentrations in the lead contained in the base of CE399 were very uniform, the data might actually exclude the possibility that the fragments from the wrist (CE842) originated from CE399.

While the NAA data proves that the Single Bullet Theory is consistent with the composition of the bullet fragments, there is no general scientific consensus that the NAA data provides conclusive support for it.

Criticisms

Critics claim that a bullet that passed through several layers of clothing and flesh, destroyed a five inch (127 mm) section of a rib, broke a wrist radius bone, and shed metal fragments (some of which are buried with Connally) could not be in such nearly pristine shape, especially given that the, supposedly, same type "headshot" bullet, according to the Warren Commission, completely broke apart after passing through only two layers of less-dense skull bone. Proponents point out that these questions have been answered by later study (see Unsolved History above): 160 gr. bullets of this type only fragment if they hit bone at high velocity; the CE 399 bullet is postulated to have been slowed considerably by passage though JFK's neck with little or no bone contact, then to have hit rib bone side-on, after tumbling through more chest tissue. Such tests in skin, gelatin, and bone-mock-up models have produced bullets with little deformation.

Analysis of the Zapruder film. Critics of the single bullet thesis question not only the bullet's trajectory and relative lack of damage, but also the question of timing of hits to both the president and Connally. A single bullet would have passed through both men in less than 1/100th of a second, which means that a strike of both men by a single bullet would have happened too quickly to be caught on more than a single Zapruder frame (these were exposed at 1/18th second intervals). From the Zapruder film one can see Kennedy already reaching up toward his throat in reaction to the bullet strike, as he emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225. By the single bullet thesis, the interval between frame 223 and 224 is the time the same projectile passes through both JFK and Connally's body. It is not obvious at this point (frame 224), whether Connally has, or has not, been hit; however Connally, but not other limosine occupants, is newly-blurred in frame 224 but not in frame 223. Connally himself, in analyzing the frame-by-frame Zapruder film, identified his own hit later, at about Zapruder frame 230, whereas JFK is certainly hit about Zapruder frame 224, a third of a second earlier. Beginning immediately after frame 224, Connally rapidly raises and then lowers both arms, then turns to see what has happened to Kennedy, even though he must have been hit before this point, if hit by the same bullet. His cheeks then puff out, and his mouth opens as he begins to show the shock of the bullet. It is at this point that critics of the single bullet theory believe Connally is actually hit by a second and separate bullet, and this is also what Connally himself believed. Proponents of the single bullet thesis argue that Connally is simply exhibiting a delayed pain reaction to being been hit by the same bullet that hit Kennedy, a third of a second earlier. Any delayed reaction would have to have been a neurological one. Critics believe the puffing out of Connally's cheeks is simply physics at work, as the bullet collapses one of his lungs, forcing air into his mouth.

When an enhanced copy of the Zapruder film was released in 1998, many thought the delayed reaction theory was debunked. Others, notably Posner found new evidence for the single bullet, noting that Connally's right lapel flips up only at frame 224 (it hides the right part of his white collar in frame 224, which is far more clearly seen in both frames 223 and 225). In this same frame, as noted above, Connally suddenly becomes blurred with regard to the rest of the automobile (Connally is clear in frame 223). Frame 224 is precisely the best-posited frame of the impact of the bullet to Kennedy, who is still behind the sign at this point. Zapruder himself does not appear to jump until frame 227, bluring all contents of the automobile. Connally's immediate reaction after frame 224, including a flinch in which he flexes both elbows and brings his hat up, is seen by some as an unconscious reaction to the strike (single frames of this reaction appear to show Connally unharmed, with hat held up in front of his chest, while Kennedy behind him has already clearly been hit). Others see this as the Governor's reaction to the sound of the first shot. Immediately after the arm spasm, Connally begins a motion which drops his right shoulder and holds his right arm pinned to his right side, including a slow rolling motion toward this side. He also is seen to look over his right shoulder at Kennedy and shows an expression of pain only after turning his head back toward Zapruder's position around frame 275.

In the Oliver Stone movie "JFK," Stone goes to great lengths to debunk the single bullet theory. In so doing, he distorts certain parts of the factual record. One example is when he shows both Kennedy and Connally seated directly in front of each other at the same height. Connally was seated in a jump seat the edge of which was 3 inches inboard and possibly 4 inches lower than Kennedy. The House Select Committee concluded that the Governor could have been as much as 6 inches (15 cm) to the left of the President. Moreover, Stone has Connally looking straight ahead. However, when Connally emerges from behind the freeway sign at Zapruder frames 222-223, he is clearly rotated significantly to his right. These points are of critical importance in assessing whether the bullet that passed through Kennedy could have caused Connally's injuries. Computer recreations showing accurate body positioning of the two men show that their injuries, if caused at Zapruder frame 224, fall on a line which emanates from a circle enclosing several windows on the sixth floor of the Texas Book Depository, and includes the window of the sniper's nest.

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One of the more troubling points with which single bullet theorists must contend is the fact that Connally continued to hold his hat after the single bullet struck and broke his right wrist. Critics contend this is not physically possible, and indeed it seems counterintuitive. However, in the Zapruder film Connally continues to clutch the hat even after Kennedy's head wound, this being a point after which everyone (including critics) agree Connally must have already been hit. In fact, Connally said that he held on to his hat until he was put on a stretcher at Parkland Hospital. Thus, it is clear that Connally continued to hold the hat after being hit. Wrist fracture would not preclude ability to hold a light object such as a hat, and Connally's nerve damage was limited to a superficial branch of the radial nerve which served a sensory function only, and would not have interfered with his grip strength (nor was Connally's hand function in any way permanently harmed).

Another criticism that has been made of the single bullet theory is that it requires a missed shot. The Warren Commission Report contained an entire chapter entitled "The Shot that Missed"[27]. If two bullets account for all the wounds and there was no shot that struck just the car, then obviously one must have missed entirely. There is no clear evidence that any of the shots missed the car and its occupants. Moreover, there is witness evidence that all three shots struck the occupants of the vehicle: 1. many witnesses to the assassination (for example, T.E. Moore[28], Nellie Connally[29], David Powers[30], Gayle Newman[31] and William Newman[32], John Chism [33] and Faye Chism[34], James Altgens[35], Abraham Zapruder[36], S.A. Clint Hill[37], Linda Willis[38], S.A. George Hickey[39], S.A. Sam Kinney[40], S.A. Paul Landis[41],Harold Norman[42]) stated that the President reacted to the first shot (most saying he reacted by slumping forward, to the left or both). Only Dallas reporter Mary Woodward thought there may have been no reaction to the first shot. She reported the following day (Dallas Morning News, November 23, 1963 "Witness from the News Describes the Assassination"[43]) that she thought that no one was hit by the first shot and that the President did not react until after the second shot or third shot, both of which were very close together. Her statement a few weeks later to the Warren Commission[44], however, indicates that the reaction she may have been referring to was the slump after the head shot. 2. Governor Connally[45] and his wife, Nellie Connally[[46] were adamant that the second shot struck the Governor in his back -- he distinctly recalled the forceful impact and that this was after he heard the first shot, realized it was a rifle shot and turned to his right to look for the President (though he also testified he did not actually make it far enough to see the condition of the President, and he began to turn back when he was shot). 3. One shot (obviously a later one) struck the President in the head.

A major criticism of the single bullet theory has to do with the apparent trajectory from the sixth floor window of the Texas School Book Depository through the President being to the left of the midline of the Governor when it crossed the plane of the back of Governor Connally's seat. The Governor was struck on the right armpit. On the reasonable assumption that the bullet did not change direction significantly in passing through the President's neck, the bullet should have struck the Governor further left. The only wound on the Governor's left side was in his thigh. Neither the Warren Commission nor House Select Committee on Assassinations considered the possibility that the bullet that passed through the President wounded the Governor only in the thigh. The path to the thigh appears to fit a straight line path through the President's neck (with the Governor's shoulders turned to the right as he appears at the time of the first shot). However, it is generally thought that the thigh wound was made by a bullet travelling at a much slower speed than one would expect the bullet to have after exiting the President's neck. Governor Connally said that he never felt this thigh wound at any time until the next day. Dr. Shires, who operated on Governor Connally's thigh wound, thought that the wound to the thigh (which he said extended to the region of the femur) could have been made by a bullet travelling at high speed striking the thigh on an angle.[47]

The Single Bullet Theory as proposed by the House Select Committee on Assassinations and later by author Gerald Posner in his book Case Closed[2] (which is that the first shot missed and the second shot passed through both the President and the Governor) has also been criticised on the grounds that it does not fit the shot pattern recalled by the vast majority of witnesses (which was: first shot, a longish pause and then two shots in rapid succession, the second shot being after the midpoint between the first and last shots). The Warren Commission remarked on this "substantial majority of the witnesses"[48] but did not attribute much significance to the shot pattern. If the first shot occurred after frame 150 of the Zapruder film, the second shot could not have occurred before frame 240 in order to have a shot pattern in which the last two shots were noticeably closer together (the head shot obviously occurred between frames 312 and 313).

If the shot pattern recalled by the "substantial majority of the witnesses" is correct, Governor Connally was either wounded in the back on the first shot or he was not wounded until many frames after frame 240. This "late hit" view was abandoned in April 1964 because the FBI expert Robert Frazier expressed the opinion (as did Governor and Mrs. Connally) that the Governor must have been hit in the chest by frame 240. It may be observed that there is no unequivocal evidence that Governor Connally was hit in the chest at this point. It is not possible to determine with complete confidence that he is reacting to being shot. The Governor said that he first reacted to the sound of the first shot (which he immediately recognized as a rifle shot) by turning to his right and trying to see the President. His actions from frame 228 to frame 270 are not inconsistent with that action. This is a very important point, because if the Governor was not hit until frame 270-272, all three shots could have been fired by Oswald and the Single Bullet Theory would not be needed.

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The single bullet theory in popular culture

The main purpose of the controversial video game JFK Reloaded was to have the player attempt to re-enact the shooting with a single bullet, in order to duplicate the Warren Commission's conclusions. However, the game's physics were slightly modified to make it easier to "win".

The single bullet theory was parodied in a 1992 episode ("The Boyfriend, Part 1") of the sitcom Seinfeld, in which baseball player (and guest star) Keith Hernandez allegedly spat a "magic loogie" at Kramer and Newman. This scene from Seinfeld was actually a parody of a near identical, but more serious, scene from the 1991 movie JFK. The actor Wayne Knight, who portrayed the Newman character in Seinfeld, occupied the same position in both the "magic bullet" scene of the JFK movie and the subsequent Seinfeld parody.

At the start of the 1995 Beavis and Butthead episode "US History," Daria Morgendorffer does an oral report on the subject, commenting as she points to a drawing on the blackboard: "And when this 'magic bullet' went into the President's chest, it had to make a sharp turn in order to exit his body from the neck. Then it would have had to turn right, then left, and somehow have enough energy to hit the Governor in the front seat. Clearly, the assassination was a conspiracy." In her own subsequent TV series, Daria also mentioned the JFK assassination in the episode "Gifted."

The second song on Maryland-based emo band Texas Is The Reason's only LP, Do You Know Who You Are, is called "The Magic Bullet Theory".

Emo/Post-hardcore band Funeral for a Friend have a song titled 'Bullet Theory' on their album Casually Dressed & Deep in Conversation.

In Midway's survival horror game "The Suffering," one of the acts is entitled Single Bullet Theory.

The Onion, a humor magazine, published a 2006-08-08 article titled New Oliver Stone 9/11 Film Introduces 'Single Plane' Theory [49].

In the Justice League Unlimited episode "Question Authority", the Question, a conspiracy obsessed vigilante, is being tortured for information when he claims that there was indeed a 'magic bullet'; it was forged by Illuminati mystics to hide "the truth".

The Richmond, Virginia-based band Single Bullet Theory's debut EP (1978) featured an Etch-a-Sketch cover of the Kennedy Assassination. Their song "Keep It Tight" from their self-titled Nemperor/CBS album (1984) reached #78 on the Billboard Top 100 while the video was in rotation on MTV. It was later included on Rhino Records's New Wave Hits of the 80's Volume 9.

The Wrong Guy, a dark comedy starring Dave Foley, includes a scene of a conspiracy theorist claiming no bullet struck Kennedy, insisting "his head just did that", and calls it "The No Bullet Theory".

See also

• John F. Kennedy assassination
• John F. Kennedy autopsy
• Zapruder film
• Conspiracy theory
• Coincidence theory
• List of alleged conspiracy theories

External links

• Zapruder film footage, including individual frames referenced in this article -- This is the "Costalla combined edit", hosted at a site which argues that the film itself is a forgery
• Kennedy Assassination Home Page: The Single Bullet Theory
• photos, pictures and diagrams critical of the single bullet theory
• Computer reconstruction supporting the single bullet theory
• The Warren Commission "single bullet theory"
• Single Bullet Theory
• New Documented Information on CE399 and its Provenance (April, 2005)
• Sibert/O'Neill FBI autopsy report original. And [50] cache. This primary document preserves the notes of two FBI agents (Special Agents James W. Sibert and Francis X. O'Neill) who were present at the autopsy and took notes. The early report preserves genuine medical doctor confusion present during the autopsy, caused by apparent lack of an exit wound for the CE399 entry, which was cleared up later in the official report after new information became available. However, as a primary piece of observation by medical laymen, the report is useful.