2006 Montenegrin independence referendum

The Republic of Montenegro is scheduled to hold a referendum on independence on May 21, 2006 [1]. A successful vote will dissolve the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, an option favoured by Prime Minister Milo Đukanović and his coalition government.

There has been considerable controversy over what threshold of support Montenegrin independence will need to receive in the referendum so as to gain international acceptance for secession; the international community is generally expected to follow the lead of the European Union, which largely engineered the creation of the State Union with Serbia in 2003. The Montenegrin government had advocated the "Danish model"–independence if a simple plurality of votes are cast in favour, provided independence also receives a more than 50% overall majority of the eligible electorate [2]. European Union envoy Miroslav Lajčák instead proposed independence if a 55% supermajority of votes are cast in favour with a minimum turnout of 50%, a determination that prompted some protestations from the pro-independence forces. The EU Council of Foreign Ministers unanimously agreed to Lajčák's proposal, and the Đukanović government ultimately backed down in its opposition [3]. The 55% figure could well be precedent-setting for other independence movements internationally.

The Montenegrin government has prepared for independence by establishing a new national flag and coat of arms for Montenegro and changing the name of language classes in schools from simply "Serbian" to "Montenegrin, Serbian, Bosnian and Croatian."

Unserved Military Obligations

After this refernedum, Serbia-Montenegro citizens living outside the country will be able to pay off their unserved military obligations using money. It is still not been determined how much there is to be paid. The Military of Serbia and Montenegro has proposed that €5,200 will be the price to pay, while the Diaspora Ministry of Serbia and Montenegro has recommended a price of €2,500, about a 52% decrease from the military's proposal.

According to recent estimates, out of 100,000 citizens living abroad, about 16,000 would be prepared to pay off their military obligations immediately, as well as 25,000 citizens, who will be receiving amnesty soon for avoiding their military obligations. The military’s proposal has gone through public discussions already and the Executive Council is expected to make a decision on the price. According to the Daily Blic however, no decision will be made until after the independence referendum on May 21. [4]

Bosnian and Muslim support of Independence

On March 20, Deputy Speaker of the Montenegro Parliament, Rifat Rastoder, said that Bosnians and Muslims living in Montenegro will vote for Montenegrin independence. [5]

Students of Montenegro

About 9,000 Montenegrin students in Serbia are still not sure of what their status will be after the independence referendum is held in May.

The Montenegrin Education Ministry have already announced that the Montenegrin Government will continue to finance Montenegrin students that are studying in Serbia, even if they are treated like foreigners studying abroad, said Education Ministry Assistant, Slobodanka Koprovica.

Serbia is currently financing between 1,000 to 1,500 Montenegrin students. Despite the optimistic words of the Serbian Education Ministry that they will continue to offer these privileges to the students even if Montenegro gains independence, a majority of university deans and professors in Serbia claim that Montenegrin students should be financed by their motherland, because they will be foreigners studying in Serbia. [6]

Serbia interfering in referendum

On Thursday, March 23, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Đukanović said that Serbia is trying to brutally interfere in the Montenegrin Referendum process.

Đukanović said that this interference will not have any effect on the formation of a Montenegrin state, adding that it will not have any consequences from the 1990s because Montenegro does not wish to be in conflict with Serbia, like what happened in the Yugoslav War between Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"I am certain that this won't have an effect on the outcome of the referendum. I am certain that we will gain independence, but what is indicative in this story is that the Serbian administration is not showing decisiveness to back away from the hegemonic model of politics with its neighbors." Đukanović said. [7]

Opposition Parties Sign Campaign Agreement

On Tuesday, March 21, it has been announced that four Montenegrin opposition parties will be creating an agreement for a united organisation of an opposition campaign for the Montenegro independence referendum.

The Socialistic National Party, National Party, Democratic Serbian Party, and the Serbian National Party will sign this cooperative agreement between the parties and include non-governmental organisations, non-parliamentary parties and prominent individuals in the campaign as well, according to National Party leader, Predrag Popović.

"We have also held meetings with all relevant members of the bloc for a united state, which were attended by non-governmental organisation officials and well-known intellectuals." Popović said. [8]