World War III

For other uses of World War III, World War 3, World War Three or Third World War, see World War Three (disambiguation).

Nuclear arms are generally hypothesized to play a decisive role in any future world war.

World War Three is a term used to describe a hypothetical future conflict on the scale of World War II or larger. Most usages of the term assume the use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear weapons.

In the latter half of the 20th century, military confrontation between the two superpowers was considered to pose an extreme threat to establishing world peace, when the Cold War saw the capitalist United States face the communist Soviet Union. If this confrontation had escalated into full-scale war, it was widely thought that the conflict would become "World War III," and that the results of which could possibly cause the destruction of most life on Earth, an extermination of human life or, at the very least, the partial collapse of civilization, with total casualties exceeding 1 billion. (See also Mutually Assured Destruction.) This outcome ranks with asteroid or comet impact events, worldwide pandemics, and catastrophic climate change as one of the major mass extinction events that could befall humanity or even all life on Earth.

The term has carried on beyond the Cold War, and now usually refers to any potential future global conflict which would involve nuclear weapons. In modern times, the possibility of WWIII taking place between superpowers has been replaced by the threat of a nuclear attack by a smaller party, which could incite retaliation and cause a destructive domino effect.

Speculative uses of the term "World War III" have also been applied to current and predicted non-nuclear conflict, most notably the War on Terror (see below).

Historical close calls

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War, an apocalyptic war between the United States and USSR was considered likely. The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 is generally thought to be the historical point at which the risk of World War III was closest. Other potential starts have included the following (see External links below for further examples):

• 1948-1949- Berlin Blockade: The USSR blockaded Western Berlin in an attempt to remove America, France and Great Britain from Berlin. Some American politicians suggested an invasion of East Germany, however Truman was dissuaded from this by analysts saying that the risk and fallout of WWIII would be too great. (The Allies dealt with the Berlin Blockade with an ultimately successful airlift).
• July 26, 1956 – March, 1957 — Suez Crisis: the conflict pitted Egypt against an alliance between the French Fourth Republic, the United Kingdom and Israel. When the USSR threatened to intervene on behalf of Egypt, the Canadian Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Lester B. Pearson feared a larger war and persuaded the British and French to withdraw.
• October 27, 1962; Cuban Missile Crisis: the conflict pitted the United States against an alliance between the USSR and Cuba. The USSR was attempting to place several launch sites in Cuba in response to the United States installation of missiles in Turkey. The United States response included dispersal of Strategic Air Command bombers to civilian airfields around the United States and war games in which the United States Marine Corps landed against a dictator named "ORTSAC" (Castro spelt backwards). For a brief while, the U.S. military went to DEFCON 3, while SAC went to DEFCON 2. The crisis peaked on October 27, when a U-2 (piloted by Rudolph Anderson) was shot down over Cuba and another U-2 flight over Russia was almost intercepted when it strayed over Siberia, after Curtis LeMay (U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff) had neglected to enforce Presidential orders to suspend all overflights.
• October 24, 1973 — As the Yom Kippur War was winding down, a Soviet threat to intervene on Egypt's behalf caused the United States to go to DEFCON 3.
• November 9, 1979, when the US made emergency retaliation preparations after NORAD saw on-screen indications that a full-scale Soviet attack had been launched. No attempt was made to use the "red telephone" hotline to clarify the situation with the USSR and it was not until early-warning radar systems confirmed no such launch had taken place that NORAD realised that a computer system test had caused the display errors. A Senator inside the NORAD facility at the time described an atmosphere of absolute panic. A GAO investigation led to the construction of an off-site test facility, to prevent similar mistakes subsequently.
• September 26, 1983, when Soviet early warning system showed that a US ICBM attack had been launched. Colonel Stanislav Petrov, in command of the monitoring facility put the warning down to computer error and did not notify his superiors.
• November 1983: Exercise Able Archer 83 — The USSR mistook a test of NATO's nuclear-release procedures as a fake cover for a NATO attack and subsequently raised its nuclear alert level. It was not until afterwards that the US realized how close it had come to nuclear war. At the time of the exercise the Soviet Politburo was without a healthy functioning head due to the failing health of then leader Yuri Andropov, which is thought to have been one of the contributing factors to the Soviet paranoia over the exercise.
• January 25, 1995 (see Norwegian Rocket Incident) — A Norwegian missile launch for scientific research was detected from Spitsbergen and thought to be an attack on Russia, launched five minutes from Moscow. Norway had notified the world that it would be making the launch, but the Russian Defense Ministry had neglected to notify those monitoring Russia's nuclear defense systems.

In addition to the above there are two other points during the Cold War that may have resulted in world war. These, however, are not generally listed as they do not relate to the United States-Soviet Union rivalry, but rather the events following the Sino-Soviet Split of 1960. The ideological split between Maoist communists (represented primarily by China) and Stalinist communists (represented primarily by the Soviet Union) divided the entire communist movement worldwide — which controlled governments or significant rebel factions on most continents. Thus a war between China and the Soviet Union may well have resulted in world war, while not necessarily involving the U.S. and the capitalist west. The two points the communist powers almost entered into all-out war over were:

• March 1969, when border clashes broke out between Soviet and Chinese troops over Zhen Bao Island in the Ussuri River (Sino-Soviet border conflict). In total, the Soviets suffered about 90 casualties to 800 for the Chinese (these numbers are based on Soviet claims). At the time there were almost one and a half million troops deployed along the border.
• 1978 and 1979, in which the pro-Soviet Vietnam invaded the pro-China Cambodia and removed Pol Pot. China in turn invaded Vietnam in retaliation and the Soviets denounced this action strongly, although it fell short of taking action. The next year the Soviets invaded Afghanistan and the Chinese claimed this was a continuation of a strategy of encircling China with Soviet allies that had begun the previous year with the invasion of Vietnam.

Preparations for war

OPLAN (Operations Plan) 1000 was the standard U.S. military plan for the first hours or days of a national emergency such as World War III. Unclassified annexes included grounding all civil aircraft in the United States and controlling all navigation beacons. In the 1950s and 1960s, this included CONELRAD (Control of Electromagnetic Radiation), in which all radio stations broadcasting in the U.S. would operate on low power on two frequencies — to prevent Russian bombers from using them for navigation. Certain features of OPLAN 1000 were instituted during the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. The actual U.S. nuclear response was detailed in numerous Single Integrated Operational Plans from 1960 to the present day.

Certain sources also state that the Eisenhower Interstate Highway System was specifically designed to contain several sections which were flat and straight, to be used as emergency runways for nuclear bombers. However, the United States Department of Transportation strongly denies that such a purpose exists in the Interstate highway system. Nonetheless, several other nations and/or regions, such as Finland and Taiwan have done so. The original freeways (autobahn), as produced by Germany, were built this way for planned World War II military use.

Use of the term

The mushroom cloud from the first "true" Soviet hydrogen bomb test in 1955.

Cold War

The term World War III has been used by Project for the New American Century (PNAC) to describe the Cold War of the 20th century, while the War on Terrorism is referred to as World War IV. PNAC has numerous members who are senior officials in the George W. Bush administration in the USA as well as in other high positions of influence in the United States. James Woolsey, a founding member of PNAC, stated during his opening statements while speaking on April 2, 2003 on a panel discussion at UCLA entitled "America, Iraq and the War on Terrorism, UCLA":

"A few words about this war we're in, which I don’t really call a war against terrorism. I have adopted a formulation of my friend Elliot Cohen who teaches at Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies calls it World War IV. World War III having been the Cold War. And I think that more accurately characterizes the degree of commitment that we are going to have to be engaged in, and the scope of what we are going to be engaged in now for some years. This Fourth World War I think will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us, hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War."

Even earlier, historian Eric Hobsbawm wrote that the "Second World War had barely ended when humanity plunged into what can reasonably be regarded as a Third World War, though a very peculiar one." (The Age of Extremes: A History of the World)

Korean War

During the Korean War, Gallup polls in the United States showed that a majority of Americans believed that World War III had already begun. The Korean War shared an important feature of previous World Wars, namely the conflict between two coalitions of opposed nations. However, hostilities were restricted to a relatively small geographical area, and loss of life, while high, did not compare to the earlier World Wars. In retrospect, no significant group of historians currently considers the Korean War to have been a "World War."

Gulf War

During a press conference soon after the start of the 1991 Gulf War, King Hussein of Jordan and King Olav V of Norway directly referred to the conflict between the United States and its coalition of allies against Iraq as "the Third World War" but there was no indication of any other world leaders accepting the definition.

Nagorno-Karabakh War

During the Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkish Prime Minister Tansu Çiller announced that any Armenian advance on the main territory of Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic would result in a declaration of war against Armenia. Russian military leaders declared that a third party intervention by Turkey into the dispute "could trigger a Third World War."

War on Terrorism

Some historians have suggested that the War on Terrorism, in retaliation to the September 11, 2001 attacks and other terrorist attacks on America, may become known by future generations as the third of the world wars due to its global impact and the number of countries involved. However, some point that the conflict actually began with the first World Trade Center Bombing in 1993. This point of view has been shared with many talk-radio show hosts over the last few months, especially by Jim Dallas of KDWN and Michael Savage, and with commentators at both WorldNetDaily and The New American, among others. Others naysayers have a point of view that is considered hyperbole and view that it is highly unlikely that the current military conflicts in the Middle East and central Asia will escalate to the point that the major world powers would end up engaged in conflict with one another.

The previous two world wars involved all the most powerful countries of their time in conflict against another in conflicts that had a fundamental impact on world history.

The total capabilities of the various terrorist and militant Islamist movements cannot be compared to those of any of the major participants in those world conflicts. In the 19th and 20th century, especially prior to World War I, the European Powers were almost always constantly involved in multiple conflicts globally during their times of empire, those conflicts almost always against irregular and guerilla movements. These conflicts are not world wars, due to the conflict being regional, and mostly internal, in regards to the participants of the hostilities being citizens of the colonies of the European Powers.

Perhaps some historians date the beginning of the Second World War to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, which was a region ignored during China's post-Imperial strife during the reign of Emperor Pu Yi.

The aftermath of the 9/11 attack on America marked the first time since its creation that NATO enacted its war action and participation articles. The United States did not call NATO into the Afghanistan or Iraq conflicts, though individual allies have participated and NATO is involved in peacekeeping in Afghanistan.

In a statement in the Wall Street Journal the father of one the passengers who died on hijacked United Airlines Flight 93, David Beamer, referred to the acts of the passengers of that flight as: "our first successful counter-attack in our homeland in this new global war, World War III." On May 5, 2006 U.S. President George W. Bush stated that he agreed with that assessment[1][2]. Talk radio hosts Bill O'Reilly [3] and Glenn Beck [4] have called the current war World War III.

See also

• World War III in popular culture
• Doomsday clock
• Doomsday argument
• Doomsday device
• Nuclear war
• Nuclear disarmament
• War to end all wars
• World War
• World War I
• World War II
• Cold war
• World War IV

External links

• WW3- World War 3 in Detail.
• “World War IV: How It Started, What It Means, and Why We Have to Win” by Norman Podhoretz in Commentary Magazine September 2004
• 20 mishaps that might have started an accidental nuclear war
• Scientific American article about nuclear near-misses, dated November 1997
• Transcript of PNAC members James Woolsey, William Bennet, and Paul Bremer discussing fellow PNAC-member Elliot Cohen's WWII and WWIV terminology as used by PNAC and people in positions of influence and power in the USA
• The Project for the New American Century, many of whose members are in positions of power and influence in the USA