Talk:Climate change

Section order

At the moment the first three sections are Radiative forcing -> Temperature changes -> Feedback. I think it would make more sense to be Temperature changes -> Radiative forcing -> Feedback. This would put the basic "what's happening" (temperature changes) section first, and would also have the feedback section right after the forcing section instead of being interrupted with the description of temperature changes. Comments, questions, complaints? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:59, 21 May 2009 (UTC)

I like the logic. Sounds like "what now, why, what might happen in the future". Awickert (talk) 00:10, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Makes sense, the first two items also follows the same construction used in the lead: temperature change → forcing. Feedback seems to be excluded somewhat from the lead, but is non-essential to this discussion. Support. Diff.[1] ChyranandChloe (talk) 05:14, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Forcing → feedback → temperature makes more sense to me. Without the forcing, there is no temperature change. -Atmoz (talk) 18:05, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Without temperature change, concern over global warming in the first place would seem silly. I am not certain, it makes sense, but it's not to the point where I'd want to change my position. While we're on section order, I think we should move the sub-subsection "Geoengineering" as the last subsection in the section "Responses to global warming", and merge "Emissions reduction" into "Mitigation", so the layout would be:

• Responses to global warming
  • Mitigation
  • Adaptation
  • Geoengineering

This follows the list order overviewed in the lead "[...] are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming." This and Geoengineering doesn't seem to be a form of mitigation. ChyranandChloe (talk) 06:03, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Temperature changes are going to be small compared to diurnal and yearly temperature ranges. It's actually the effects of GW that are a concern. I think it makes even more sense to group the temperature change section with the effects section (after climate models) than have it at the top. -Atmoz (talk) 19:43, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Plan it out, and show us what you've got. I'm not certain, I'm still looking for the big picture; and what you've got makes sense, I'm just looking for clarity now. If you explain to me what's on your mind, it might make it easier to see where it's headed. Right now I'm just following the construction used in the lead to guide the article layout. ChyranandChloe (talk) 07:21, 24 May 2009 (UTC)

This has been discussed before. Note that you've got different levels on the headings. Geoeng can be grouped with mitigation. If it wasn't, then it should be last. Andrewjlockley (talk) 15:06, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Here are the past two discussions: [2] [3]. Chapter 11 of AR4[4] considers geo-engineering a "cross-sectoral" option, which is essentially extends the definition from being denotative, as specifically defined in the AR4 glossary[5]; to being connotative, defined by how they're going to use it. To my understanding each chapter is written by a different group of people, and differences in definition isn't unknown. Chapter 11 is a "cross-sectoral perspective" on mitigation, meaning they're going to describe mitigation in the context of geo-engineering, economics, trade-offs, cost and potentials, so on—which makes sense, more context, better perspective. Geo-engineering isn't a form of Mitigation, although the two are used to accomplish the same goals. For these reasons I believe "Geoengineering" should be its own subsection under "Responses to global warming". What do you guys think? ChyranandChloe (talk) 20:11, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Random passing comment: The truth of "Geo-engineering isn't a form of Mitigation" is heavily dependent on perspective - what the domain of affect is. eg: "mitigate - make less severe or harsh" - Geoeng can be seen as an effort to make the impact of global warming less harsh on [something]?. --Jaymax (talk) 04:27, 25 May 2009 (UTC)

(outdent) You're right. Perspective is important, however on issues like this I prefer using the denotative definition rather than the connotative one. From the IPCC glossary[6] this is the denotative definition:

“

Geo-engineering

Technological efforts to stabilize the climate system by direct intervention in the energy balance of the Earth for reducing global warming

Mitigation

Technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although several social, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change, mitigation means implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks.

”

The two can overlap when you attempt to apply it. For example, in carbon-sequestration you're intervening with earth's energy balance by shoving carbon into the ground, however it's also mitigation since it's a technological change which substitutes a resource input. The difference remains great enough, however, that dividing the two would make more sense. Mitigation is more policy centered on reducing emissions, geo-engineering is more ambitious as it attempts to directly intervene with earth's climate system. This is my interpretation. ChyranandChloe (talk) 04:54, 25 May 2009 (UTC)

Diff. [7] ChyranandChloe (talk) 03:28, 26 May 2009 (UTC)

Seems sensible if you have an RS. Good homework! Can you mod the geoeng art too, to reflect that? Andrewjlockley (talk) 10:17, 24 May 2009 (UTC)

Clarifying second sentence in the lead

Almost forgot[8], I've finished "probably". In the last clause in the second sentence in the lead it states:

“ [...], and that natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect afterward. ”

1. From the references provided, it's defined as "very likely" (page 4 of 84 and page 68 of 84)[9] or 95% certain[10].
2. The wording for "probably" is taken from the second reference [11], which itself describes the situation with certainty.
3. We decided in [12] not to burden the readers with probability estimates in the lead. The "Notes" section is more appropriate. It's also one reason why we have it in the first place.
4. Reword "natural phenomena" to "climate variability", this allows to us to introduce the term to the reader, and likewise provides an article to clarify the terms.

With these points in mind, this is what I have.

“ [...], and climate variability such as solar variation and volcanoes had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect afterward. ”

What do you guys think? ChyranandChloe (talk) 05:17, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

At a cursory glance seems reasonableAndrewjlockley (talk) 22:42, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Diff.[13] ChyranandChloe (talk) 06:03, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Sorry, I wasn't paying attention again. I've reverted it. Because: "climate variability such as solar variation and volcanoes" is wrong. SV isn't CV; neither are V. They are forcings leading to CV William M. Connolley (talk) 07:24, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

There's irony when you figure out that it's also a section in the table contents. Thanks for catching that WMC. Removed "probably" in this diff[14]; shouldn't be burdening the reader with modeling certainty in the lead, reasons are listed above (items 1 through 3). ChyranandChloe (talk) 07:32, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

"while natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes produced most of the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward". This is clumsy and misleading wording. volcanoes did not produce warming in pre-industrial times. Solar variation did, just as it did when the high levels of activity were sustained after 1950. Presumably this is refering to the "net" effect. If we are going to be true to the IPCC analysis, they also attributed the anthropogenic contribution of GHGs, not alone, but in combonination with aerosols, so this statement about GHGs "responsible for most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the twentieth century" does not directly correspond to combined natural forcings, even though the IPCC, in the same section analyzed the anthropogenic forcings as a combination. Peer review research since the FAR calls our knowledge of the aerosol component and the skill of the models into question.--68.35.156.132 (talk) 09:08, 25 May 2009 (UTC)

"Solar variation" and "Volcanoes" are examples of "natural phenomena", this does not imply that the two enumerated are responsible for "climate change" as a whole. "most" qualifies the assertion with placed in the context of anthropogenic forgings and other natural phenomena; but it feels like something better can be done. I'm not good at prose, so I'm leaving it at that. ChyranandChloe (talk) 03:28, 26 May 2009 (UTC)

I think the anon is pointing out that attributing warming to volcanoes is poor wording, since they are always a cooling effect. Volcanic forcing can lead to warming, since when there aren't any it declines. and volcanoes and solar combined can lead to warming William M. Connolley (talk) 07:51, 26 May 2009 (UTC)

How is this wording: "while natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes controlled temperature variations from pre-industrial times to 1950."? I cut the "and cooling thereafter" part out because I couldn't make it fit well in the text without sounding confusing to an uneducated reader; if someone thinks it's important and can make it fit - great. Awickert (talk) 09:20, 26 May 2009 (UTC)

Geoengineering

This article is too speculative and may contain significant amounts of factual errors. Probably best to delete reference to geoengineering from the lead of Global warming article. TeH nOmInAtOr (talk) 16:37, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Also the article on aerosol may be significantly factually inaccurate with regard to its effect on climate change. TeH nOmInAtOr (talk) 16:50, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

The lead says "more speculatively" so it should be clear to readers of this page that it's "speculative" in regard to global warming at least. It's often mentioned in popular media so I think it's relevant to the article.

I'm not sure what's normal wikipedia policy on this, but it seems to me that de-linking a page is the wrong approach. It would be better to try to improve the pages themselves and address the problems there. There are notification templates to warn readers that an article might be factually inaccurate: e.g. {{disputed}}. If you feel that is the case, you could ad that and discuss it on respective articles talk page.
—Apis (talk) 20:07, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

I'm happy to work on the geoengineering page if you point out areas of concern on the TP. I haven't done much on it for a while. I do think the link should stay though. Andrewjlockley (talk) 22:41, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

I've done some on it, mainly link fixes. Feel free to help, anyone. Andrewjlockley (talk) 15:07, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Not a crystal ball

It can be very tempting at times to "predict" the future with wikipedia. However, this article repeatedly violates WP:Crystal. I will be removing these inaccuracies as I find them. TeH nOmInAtOr (talk) 22:51, 27 May 2009 (UTC)

If predictions are widely published in reliable sources, they're acceptable. –Juliancolton | ^Talk 22:54, 27 May 2009 (UTC)

Indeed. "[...] not a collection of unverifiable speculation". As far as I'm aware, this article only contains carefully sourced predictions from the scientific literature. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:15, 27 May 2009 (UTC)

If you think the Global Warming article is violating wp:Crystal then you may wish to read wp:Crystal again and more closely. What is being done here is not at all like any of the examples given. Mishlai (talk) 23:41, 27 May 2009 (UTC)

Agree with the three above. However, if you find statements that seem to violate WP:CRYSTAL because they aren't sourced or do not match the source, please mention them here and someone will take care of either sourcing or removing them. Awickert (talk) 23:54, 27 May 2009 (UTC)

New study, human deaths & impact

I just added this; seems to be a perfectly fine source. If I put it in a bad spot, please move it to a better location in the article contents. Thanks! rootology/equality 18:35, 29 May 2009 (UTC)

External Links Cleanup

“

Scientific

• Livestock's Long Shadow - UN report including coverage of livestock's impact on global warming

Educational

• Video of a talk by Warren Washington titled "The Evolution of Global Warming Science: From Ideas to Scientific Facts"

Other

• Union of Concerned Scientists Global Warming page
• Watch and read 'Tipping Point', Australian science documentary about effects of global warming on rare, common, and endangered wildlife
• Gateway to the UN System's Work on Climate Change

”

“ Please keep the intro as a simple declarative sentence. Details should be placed later.

ADD NEW LINKS TO THE GLOSSARY OR THE INDEX

”

Cleaned up the external links to follow a stricter criteria of inclusion designed to be more relevant to the reader with original intent to improve the actual use of those resources provided. Exact guideline is available at WP:EL. This section is prone to link farming, less than essential relevance entries, and less than expected quality. The section divisions have been redefined to: "Research" and "Educational". This is my first sweep. There may be a few more that we may wish to review.

• The first entry is less than relevant, although interesting it is not directly concerns itself to Global warming, Effects of global warming may be more appropriate.
• The second is a video by Warren Washington, the content may be too narrowly focused to adequately address the whole topic, should be deferred to a relevant {{main}} article.
• I am placing "Union of Concerned Scientists Global Warming page" under review for neutrality as the site concerns itself with advocacy, campaigns, and with a larger "donate" button. It also fails to be directly relevant to the scientific concept.
• The video from ABC, "Tipping Point", is too specific to adequately address the topic as a whole. Most links in the EL provide a strong, complete, list of works — as to one work concerning itself with one subject.
• The last link does not directly address itself to the entire topic Global warming; it is almost singularly concerned with the "Attributed and expected effects" with modest political motivation from the UN.

Removed hidden comments, listed above. The point is well established. Oldversion[15]. Diff[16]. ChyranandChloe (talk) 19:32, 29 May 2009 (UTC)

per country / per capita

The "per country" greenhouse gas image should be removed. It's based on the absurd notion that the reified abstractions known as nation-states are capable of acting to emit such gas.

The "per capita" image is meaningful because humans are actual actors who actually emit greenhouse gas through their actions.

The purpose of the "per country" image is to allow US-Americans to continue dragging their feet on taking any substantive action to curtail their wanton disregard for the planet, by making the Chinese (and others) look just as bad even though they're not (smog or no smog).

If we're going to have "per country" then we might as well have "per religion." "China" is no more capable of emitting greenhouse gas that "Confucianism" is.