Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election by constituency
 | This article, Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election by constituency, has recently been created via the Articles for creation process. Please check to see if the reviewer has accidentally left this template after accepting the draft and take appropriate action as necessary.
Reviewer tools: Inform author |
| This article, Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election by constituency, has recently been created via the Articles for creation process. Please check to see if the reviewer has accidentally left this template after accepting the draft and take appropriate action as necessary.
Reviewer tools: Inform author |
| Opinion polling for Canadian federal elections |
|---|
| 2008 |
| Opinion polls |
| 2011 |
| Opinion polls • By constituency |
| 2015 |
| Opinion polls • By constituency |
| 2019 |
| Opinion polls • By constituency |
| 2021 |
| Opinion polls • By constituency |
| Next election |
| Opinion polls |
Various polling organizations have conducted opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 45th Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Constituency polls
Manitoba
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2022 | [1] | 14 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 12 | ±5.2 pp | 555 | IVR |
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2022 | [2] | 46 | 28 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | ±4.7 pp | 430 | IVR |
Ontario
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2022 | [3] | 38.0 | 41.7 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.8 | ±4.2 pp | 555 | IVR |
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | December 8, 2022 | [4] | 47.5 | 38.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | ±5.9 pp | 279 | IVR |
| Mainstreet Research | October 27, 2022 | [5] | 43.5 | 40.8 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | N/A | ±4.3 pp | 521 | IVR |
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | [6] | 36 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | ±4.5 pp | 473 | IVR |
Notes
Notes
- 1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[7] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[8]
- 2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
- 3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
References
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Portage-Lisgar". Retrieved June 18, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Winnipeg South-Centre". Retrieved June 18, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on June 23, 2022. Retrieved September 19, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Mississauga-Lakeshore" (PDF). Retrieved February 4, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Mississauga-Lakeshore" (PDF). Retrieved October 31, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Oxford". Retrieved June 18, 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
- ^ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012