Talk:Austerity

Sequester

--moved to bottom (newest always goes on bottom, or use "new section" button)-- Naapple (Talk) 06:08, 5 March 2013 (UTC)

Comments

According to User:Herschelkrustofsky, the older version of the article is better. I disagree because the older version is very biased. For example:

• "reduce living standards, curtail development projects..." (these are not necessarily part of an austerity policy; the only requirement is a reduction of spending, although typically, this does result in lower living standards, etc)
• "cutting food or fuel subsidies, underfunding infrastructure (transport, education, health care, water and power management), or rationing" (this paints a very negative picture (very POV) of austerity policies; the newer text is neutral)

Therefore, I have reverted to the 'newer' version of the article. Mat334 19:08, 15 December 2005 (UTC)

I think that you may be attempting to put lipstick on a pig. You concede that austerity typically lowers living standards. Can you cite an example of an austerity program that did not involve some combination of "cutting food or fuel subsidies, underfunding infrastructure (transport, education, health care, water and power management), or rationing"? --HK 01:30, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Yes, I can think of two. A key aspect of Austria's recent austerity policy was getting rid of early retirement. And, in the early 1980s, Libya pursued an austerity policy that involved decreasing the number of foreigners working in the country and not paying money owed to foreign contractors. I don't know for sure whether Austria or Libya also cut subsidies, underfunded infrastructure (by the way, underfunding according to who?), or implemented rationing. However, it is in any case quite conceivable that a government could go ahead with an austerity policy that focuses solely on getting rid of early retirement or not paying money to foreigners. Such actions may well lower living standards, but they don't necessarily. Perhaps if people work longer, society will become richer. And using national (as oppposed to foreign) contractors probably increases employment, and therefore can often lift people out of poverty. Austerity = restrictions on government spending. Restrictions can have good, as well as bad, consequences. (And I say this despite being a libertarian.) Mat334 03:38, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

All right, how about re-writing the article to say that austerity policies typically have the aforementioned unpleasant effects, but noting that there are two exceptions? I think it is also fair to say that austerity policies are often associated with the IMF, whose critics are legion -- they are sort of like a giant collection agency. --HK 12:51, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Good, I agree with your wording, except I would note that there are exceptions (not necessarily just two!) and list those two exceptions. Unless you or someone else writes it, I'll get to it on Wednesday. However, I'm not familiar enough with criticism of the IMF to write an outline of it. And in any case, I'm not sure how much of this criticism belongs to this article. Mat334 23:25, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

I have just done a general re-write, which is a hybrid of the two previous versions with the addition of the language we discussed. Let me know what you think. --HK 22:37, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

I have reverted your re-write because it appears based on LaRouche concepts and terms, including "physical economy", and because it had no sources. -Willmcw 23:15, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

Here is a small selection ([1][2][3][4][5][6]) from the over 20 million references to "physical economy" on Google where there is no connection whatsoever to LaRouche. Willmcw, despite the extraordinary and inexplicable leniency shown to you by the ArbCom in your recent case, I ask that you desist from your highly unproductive harassment. --HK 14:36, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

At least several of those sources use "physical economy" as an alternative to the internet ecomony. That is clearly not the meaning that you were using. Speaking of Google, what are the first entries that you get for "physical economy"? Yep, all LaRouche. -Willmcw 19:31, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

What about Google Books? Paroxysm 20:01, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

And how do those books relate to the topic of this article, austerity? -Willmcw 22:45, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

None of them appear to be connected to "LaRouche," so I assume they're not all using "LaRouchisms." // paroxysm (n) 23:26, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

And what is the bearing of "physical economy" on this article? Does anyone suggest that those seeking austerity programs wish governments to move investment to the "Internet Ecomomy" from the "Physical "Economy"? -Willmcw 02:05, 19 December 2005 (UTC)

I think Willmcw has a valid point. Austerity policies are most generally characterised by a reduction of public spending in general, and not necessarily in the "physical economy". Whether or not "physical economy" is a "LaRouchism" is irrelevant; the term should not be in the article, except maybe in one sentence closer to the end. Mat334 02:16, 19 December 2005 (UTC)

Mat334, I suggest that you re-write the article as you see fit -- use whatever you find in my version that you think is useful. Willmcw's presence in this discussion serves one purpose only -- he is grasping at straws, looking for a pretext to ban me. I don't intend to give him one. --HK 02:56, 19 December 2005 (UTC)

This part below posted has no citing to it! where did you get this information???? because your giving reasons for taking austerity measures, or else its just your opinion which needs to be put under a series titled: opinion. It invalidates the topic because it needs to be HARD facts not based of articles with a whole bunch of opinions!

Reasons for taking austerity measures

"Austerity measures are typically taken if there is a threat that a government cannot honor its debt liabilities. Such a situation may arise if a government has borrowed in foreign currencies that they have no right to issue or they have been legally forbidden from issuing their own currency. In such a situation, banks may lose trust in a government's ability and/or willingness to pay and either refuse to roll over existing debts or demand extremely high interest rates. In such situations, inter-governmental institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may demand austerity measures in exchange for functioning as a lender of last resort. When the IMF requires such a policy, the terms are known as 'IMF conditionalities'." — Preceding unsigned comment added by 76.175.219.245 (talk) 12:51, 13 February 2012 (UTC)

Why not just kill the creditors and/or repudiate the public debt?

It seems to me that either of these would erase the debt, the former because there can be no debt where there exists no one to whom to pay it. And both measures, taken for good measure, would surely cause the debt to cease. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 173.87.163.121 (talk) 18:38, 26 September 2012 (UTC)

Disambiguation

There is a link to [[Development]] on this page that is linking to a disambiguation page. I'm not sure which (if any) of the more specific pages on types of development would be a better link in this context. Could someone please review the choices available and either re-direct the link or delete it? Thanks.—Chidom ^talk  08:29, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

Fair use rationale for Image:Pyat rublei 1997.jpg

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BetacommandBot 11:21, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

"Unreferenced" tags

These tags are unhelpful. There are plenty of internal wikilinks to reputable articles. The article doesn't need external sources, online or typographic, does it? Vernon White ^{. . . Talk} 23:14, 12 October 2007 (UTC)

Why not simply print money to repay debt?

I'd say emission of money would not bring such great social impact. There is danger of inflation but if the emission occurs during liquidity crisis, it just compensates for shrinking of money base. Also austerity may increase liquidity deficit and slow down the economy. It also may impact currency's exchange rate even more than printing money.--MathFacts (talk) 19:26, 27 May 2010 (UTC)

Why can't this term Austerity be approved and finalized?

I think it's really lame how complex it is for Wikiepedia to get right a simple term such as austerity. Really sick and tired of Wikipedia's editors making definition of words brain surgery. Too much time on their hands perhaps? Simplify things and be done with it. Stop making everything so difficult to define as if we need a huge explanation for everything. Stop with the continual anal requirements, it makes the world too complex and ugly. A word is what a word is what a word is. It doesn't need endless critique from snobby minds who don't produce, grow food or really contribute anything other then problems to our culture. Instead of making things so difficult, go grow some food for people to consume. Go produce something of value to society. Stop wasting our time with your ridiculous standards to define terms! — Preceding unsigned comment added by Brainchannels (talk • contribs) 15:47, 24 December 2010 (UTC)

What should qualify as an example of Austerity?

65.29.251.55 added Wisconsin as an example of Austerity on 20 Feb 2011. I am concerned that this may be more of a political statement than an actual example of a government invoking a policy of austerity. Every government at one time or another has implemented a budget-cutting or reduction of service measure; while this may meet a technical definition of austerity, there should be some sort of significance to what a government - in this case, Wisconsin - invokes in order for it to be distinguished as an example. That being said, whether Wisconsin's policies rise to such a level is questionable at best, and therefore, I believe Wisconsin should be excluded as an example; however, I have only added a CN tag in case someone is able to provide a reference or objective rationale for its inclusion. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 173.165.12.62 (talk) 15:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

I do not think that every incident of cutting spending should be considered austerity. and the US' example should be included. "United States, 2011-, austerity measures for approval of social security disability benefits." For 1, not being a true example of austerity (austerity is almost always far more broad than just a single issue) and 2, no citation like all of the other examples. 72.190.126.82 (talk) 14:36, 7 June 2012 (UTC)

attribution

Anonymous editor, WP:WEASEL requires that statements be attributed (and WP:INTEXT details how). If you have some other justification for your reversions than "irrationality", discuss it here. Rostz (talk) 03:09, 18 August 2011 (UTC)

"Typical effects", "Controversy" sections overlap

I suggest that the material regarding Greece and the UN claim need to be moved to the Controversy section, and the overlapping material (e.g., on 29 June 2011) needs to be removed. Allens (talk) 08:26, 23 October 2011 (UTC)

Inaccuracies in the "theoretical considerations" section

The first paragraph of the "theoretical considerations" section is a sophomoric misrepresentation of the state of economic thinking on these issues. It should be deleted. More specifically,

1. "Contemporary mainstream economists consider macroeconomic policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework" --- in fact, there are many non-DSGE models in this area

2. "fiscal policy is discussed within an optimal taxation framework" --- this is absolutely not true. In fact, most of the aforementioned DSGEs are too complicated to entertain questions about optimal fiscal policy

3. "The reasoning behind such models is that the effect of any government deficit is mitigated by compensatory changes in the representative agent's spending decisions. This occurs because the agent will be responsible for paying off that deficit in the future." --- the speaker seems to be referencing Ricardian equivalence, but remember that Ricardian equivalence refers to irrelevance of the timing of taxes TAKING THE PATH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AS GIVEN and is thus not appropriate for a discussion of austerity, which necessarily involves a deliberate reduction in government spending

4. "Thus, from a modern mainstream macroeconomist's point of view, reducing government deficit allows the private sector to consume more and support the economy" --- some "modern mainstream" macroeconomists may feel this way (and may have produced models supporting this view), but it's disingenuous to present this view as an object of consensus in the profession

5. "This viewpoint stems from their belief in the existence of a general economic equilibrium, which predicts that economic fluctuations revert back toward a "normal" state of affairs automatically" --- this is not a prediction of general equilibrium theory. See, for example, the huge literature on multiple equilibria in macro models

6. "For this reason econometric models that are used in economic forecasting are calibrated to show convergence to full resource utilization and employment despite government's fiscal tightening" --- it is certainly not the case that all macro models are somehow hard-wired to converge to full employment

Frankly, as a PhD candidate in economics, I find it frustrating that someone so obviously underqualified to speak on the topic nonetheless opted to put this up and potentially leave scores of readers totally misinformed on this important issue. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 70.51.108.223 (talk) 07:00, 30 December 2011 (UTC)

Where does the word come from?

Where did it originate and when and by whom, or did it develop from a word or words? I would really like a section on this. ChesterTheWorm (talk) 14:36, 20 February 2012 (UTC) ChesterTheWorm Probably from the word austere. http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/austere 75.246.213.33 (talk) 12:35, 2 June 2012 (UTC)

Critics argue

Having said that austerity is countercyclical only in periods of high inflation, I believe the phrase "Critics argue" ..that in periods of high unemployment austerity policies are counter-productive, could change to "it is a fact".--85.74.183.25 (talk) 21:15, 15 May 2012 (UTC)

Obviously, the topic of austerity has become quite politicized in recent years. The expansionary fiscal contraction theory states the exact opposite of what you suggest, and so to state your opinion as fact I think is a little presumptuous. I think the opening paragraph needs a little work. Opinions on austerity relating to the eurozone belong in "controversy". The opening paragraph should be as unbiased as possible. My thoughts are that it should open with a dictionary-like definition, followed by a brief paragraph with the EFC, and a second opposing paragraph with the "critics" opinion. Naapple (talk) 02:02, 20 May 2012 (UTC)

As you can see in the very informative article about Expansionary fiscal contraction, the EFC is an hypothesis not supported by empirical facts. It has been shown that Irish and Danish growth during tha 80's was actually lower than would have been expected without the fiscal contraction. In any case, it is left to the reader to decide the obvious (that austerity always equals contraction), so its ok with me.--85.74.183.25 (talk) 09:08, 20 May 2012 (UTC)

Failure to be NPOV

This article is extraordinarily biased against austerity. The Eurozone is in a position of potential collapse, and there is ample rational support that austerity is the last best hope to save the Euro. Socialism is collapsing Europe. It is common knowledge now that the bulk of wikipedia is authored by left wing white males, ages 18-30, with a bent against capitalism and generally favor large government. If Wikipedia has any hope, it will develop a more balanced approach to its topics. This article heavily chastises austerity, and anyone with even ninth grade reading skills can see it. This article is NOT NPOV. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.183.191.86 (talk) 06:01, 17 May 2012 (UTC)

Could you be more specific? I believe there is a consensus among economists, both monetarists and keynesians, that austerity is "good" in periods of high inflation and "bad" in periods of high unemployment. In other words, when there is high unemployment a little bit of expansion is needed and when there is high inflation a little bit of austerity is needed. Unless of course there is a high debt problem, in which case expansion may not be an option. I do not agree with your claim regarding europe, since in my view the problem is that there is no mechanism like the FED to allow for a little bit of inflation policy. As far as I know the ECB operates in the lines of statutes quite strict about price stability. But europe is not the subject matter of this article!--83.235.22.226 (talk) 08:17, 18 May 2012 (UTC)

Use of "Contemporary mainstream"

Can you please include citations for this? The paragraph is very technical; difficult for the layperson to interpret. Perhaps some more mainstream journalist has tried to summarize or cover these ideas? Until the citation is included, I would suggest the article de-emphasize the presumption that this paragraph is the mainstream view, as the mainstream view in the media is generally Keynesian.21:38, 14 August 2012 (UTC)

Multiplier

I've been trying to follow the multiplier news which is developing quickly this month. [7] suggests 1.6, on the high end of the IMF's new range of 0.9-1.7. Paum89 (talk) 07:11, 25 October 2012 (UTC)

Proposed renaming

I propose renaming this article to Austerity (economics). This is only one sense of the word austerity. It doesn't include, for example, wartime austerity in Britain during World War 2 which was about directing resources and means of production to the war effort instead of to producing consumer goods. It wasn't about the economic deficit-cutting by lowering spending, it was austerity in the sense of Freedom from adornment; plainness; severe simplicity. ShipFan (Talk) 00:49, 29 October 2012 (UTC)

Renaming makes sense to meFarcaster (talk) 01:24, 29 October 2012 (UTC)

Weakly in favor, but it does include wartime austerity, as in Keynes's quote “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury” and his own participation in Britain's wartime austerity planning. It is our definition which is not exactly right; it is about spending cuts, usually but not necessarily decreasing deficit spending.John Z (talk) 02:13, 29 October 2012 (UTC)

It seems to me that creating Wartime austerity might be the better plan, per [8]. Paum89 (talk) 02:20, 29 October 2012 (UTC)

Definition of austerity

This article defines austerity with reference to a blog post on the New Statesman's website. Surely one can do better than an article which does not purport to provide a comprehensive definition, written in a florid, satirical and party-political tone, published by a source described by Wikipedia as a "left-wing political" magazine. In particular, there is no reason why tax increases should not be included in the definition of austerity, given that taxes have tended to rise in times of austerity. AtSwimTwoBirds (talk) 11:50, 30 October 2012 (UTC)

Employment growth by top tax rate image

I've started a centralised discussion here regarding File:Employment growth by top tax rate.jpg, which is used in this article. Gabbe (talk) 09:58, 6 November 2012 (UTC)

NPOV

Someone mentioned earlier that this article pushed a POV that is anti-austerity, but they failed to give any indication as to how they reached this assumption. I would like to give a quick shot at it. Moving below the Justification section, which does take a NPOV standpoint, you have an article that contains at least a 3/1 ratio of critical remarks about austerity as a whole, and the rare phrases that do support it do so only under the Keynesian model.

• Look at the Typical effects section, for instance. This section should not be about protests, we have a section for that below labeled controversy .
• The article produces theories based upon Keynesian, Old Keynesian, and greatly oversimplifies MMT, misrepresenting the view of one economist as the consensus of 120 years of studies. However, there are virtually no opinions presented to offset the Keynesian opinions.
• Likewise, the article makes assumptions and reaches conclusions beyond the scope of the subject.

In the Austerity Sequence section, which is highly undersourced, we see that "several economists have argued" that austerity must not be administered during a failing economy. However, this cannot be taken as fact, regardless of whether the author of this section feels it is true. This entire section does nothing more than expand the Keynesian model mentioned above.

In short, the article needs to be more than a discussion of Keynesian and Old Keynesian takes on austerity. Regardless of whether you have the stomach for it, you need to find alternative viewpoints and avoid pushing ideas as facts regardless of how popular they are.206.113.15.122 (talk) 13:44, 14 November 2012 (UTC)

Agree, the article is very heavily weighted towards Keynesianism, as is the empirical support. There is minimal empirical support for austerity in a downturn; even The Economist and IMF have come back from the Dark Side and confessed their sins. Let's keep the Voodoo to a minimum, but probably should at least explain the voodoo better.Farcaster (talk) 17:57, 14 November 2012 (UTC)

IMF tries to figure out what it's been doing

"Blanchard and Leigh deduced that IMF forecasters have been using a uniform multiplier of 0.5, when in fact the circumstances of the European economy made the multiplier as much as 1.5, meaning that a $1 government spending cut would cost $1.50 in lost output." -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/03/an-amazing-mea-culpa-from-the-imfs-chief-economist-on-austerity/ 70.59.14.20 (talk) 01:18, 4 January 2013 (UTC)

Recent lead change

I don't see how the citation doesn't back up the definition of austerity, and even if weak, how the information is false and needs removed. To quote:

"austerity is an economic policy: deficit-cutting, slashed spending and the mysterious evaporation of benefits."

I get that the cite isn't great, but it hardly makes the point that austerity isn't an economics term. In regards to the second edit, what has been referred to as austerity is austerity. In regards to the third, the cite didn't pop up for me, but the very objective of austerity is to change the long term perceptions of a gov't; in that in the future the gov't can balance it's budget and establish long term confidence to peers and creditors. That is backed up strongly in other citations.

If there's some point to be made or citation to be fixed I'd be happy to discuss it. I just don't see how these recent edits help the article at all in defining austerity as an encyclopedic term. Naapple (Talk) 08:18, 1 March 2013 (UTC)

I have now rewritten the introduction, with references to the Financial Times's definition of "austerity" and some of the links, which mentioned spending cuts and tax increases as contributors to austerity. I dislike the New Statesman (see my talk section above), but recent edits left the beginning of the introduction looking bare, and did not resolve structural problems with the remainder. Please feel free to contribute and improve on this. AtSwimTwoBirds (talk) 17:10, 1 March 2013 (UTC)

The new lead is great! Naapple (Talk) 20:55, 1 March 2013 (UTC)

IMF caution

I reverted the recent lead change back to the version as written by AtSwimTwoBirds. I'm not sure if the IP was around before, but the old lead was a mess. It read like 2 opposing sides arguing rather than a neutral, encyclopedic entry. The new version pretty much left out opinions and left austerity's effectiveness as unknown/disputed which is true. I reverted the change by the IP to avoid the "volleys in a tennis match" that this will undoubtedly lead to. It should also be noted that inclusion of the IP's material directly contradicts the opening sentence in the same paragraph. Naapple (Talk) 06:05, 18 March 2013 (UTC)

You are referring to this deletion of the sentence, "Since 2011, the International Monetary Fund has issued cautionary guidance against austerity measures imposed without regard to underlying economic fundamentals[3 refs] and many commentators have suggested that austerity measures have indeed been misguided and harmful to the economies where they have been imposed.[3 more refs]"

Firstly, this sentence reinforces the fact that the effectiveness of austerity is unknown, but it says much more than that. It says that the IMF has identified specific problems with the imposition of general austerity which they believe have been causing it to fail. That is not a volley in a "good/bad, point/counterpoint" argument, it is an important nuance which has been a big deal in the news recently. The WP:LEAD guideline says that the introduction should summarize the article, and leaving this part out does a major disservice to anyone who only reads the introduction. As it stands, those people will never know that the underlying problems have been identified by the IMF but are being ignored by just those countries for whom austerity measures are failing. Also, WP:LEAD#Length suggests that two short paragraphs may be to short for a 50K article, so we should be talking about what to add to the intro (e.g., the countries' empirical experiences, for example? One sentence each?) instead of what to remove. 70.59.24.64 (talk) 22:38, 18 March 2013 (UTC)

If we include countries or opinions in which it is failing, then we should also include countries in which it was successful. The opinion from the IMF is just one example, as it stands now there are no examples, only summary. Including this starts the first volley of good/bad, when the lead should state what exactly austerity does (or is meant to do). I agree the lead could be longer, I just think specific examples belong to the body since historical examples could be interpreted as good or bad examles of austerity. Balanced != neutral. Naapple (Talk) 00:18, 19 March 2013 (UTC)

The IMF doesn't say austerity is failing, just that misguided implementations have caused it to fail. This is a very important central point. Before 2011, the IMF was one of the main proponents of austerity, and now they're the ones trying to put the brakes on the commitments to austerity that haven't been implemented well, which is what the references in the deleted passage explains. The history of austerity is a "volley" of good/bad. Deleting IMF opinions and reactions to it from the intro does a tremendous disservice to the reader. 67.41.206.89 (talk) 15:20, 19 March 2013 (UTC)

They are. "Since 2011, the International Monetary Fund has issued cautionary guidance against austerity measures". It's then followed by this line: many commentators have suggested that austerity measures have indeed been misguided and harmful to the economies where they have been imposed.

It's clearly a strike against, and it doesn't belong in the neutral lead. To add: it doesn't help define austerity, it goes into the opinions of it, which should be left as ambiguous as possible. Naapple (Talk) 21:40, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

"Neutral" doesn't mean excluding the points of view with which you disagree. WP:NPOV says that all significant viewpoints need to be included, and WP:LEAD says that controversies are included in the lead, not excluded from it as you seem to think. The idea that you value ambiguity over comprehensive summary of the article is astounding. This is an encyclopedia, not a press release with your favorite abbreviated talking points. 70.58.15.107 (talk) 19:30, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

I'm not excluding viewpoints in which I don't agree, I'm excluding all of them. Did you see the lead before? Sure controversies belong in the lead, when that controversy is particularly notable. Austerity isn't just the Eurozone. If we include that, we need to include others too through out the world, and not just recently either.

What it comes down to is that the term in recent years is controversial. This is noted in the lead. It's effectiveness is obviously debatable (again, as has been stated in the lead), and trying to score points for one side or the other in the lead opens up a can of WP:WORMS. Again, there isn't an attempt to cover up controversy, as it's mentioned in the lead, I'm merely trying to keep the debate out of it. Please review the old lead to see what I'm talking about.

I'm glad now that you're at least admitting to trying to stick in controversial material under the supposed authority of WP:NPOV, so that we're at least debating the same thing. Naapple (Talk) 21:24, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

Response to third opinion request ( Should the Austerity article's introduction include this sentence about the IMF's cautionary guidance and reactions to it since 2011? ):

I am responding to a third opinion request for this page. I have made no previous edits on Austerity and have no known association with the editors involved in this discussion. The third opinion process is informal and I have no special powers or authority apart from being a fresh pair of eyes.

First let me say that this is only my opinion, and the purpose of 3O is to add an additional opinion in an attempt to form a consensus on the matter. If it is the opinion that for some reason that consensus has not been created by the addition of a third opinion, additional dispute resolution steps maybe conducted, such as (but not limited to) gaining additional opinions through a request for comment. It is the opinion of this editor that the lead for this subject should only contain a neutrally worded and verified to reliable source definition which defines the subject (and thus the article's scope), and a very brief neutrally worded history of the subject. Any opinions of the subject, or past predictions are best left in the body of the article. RightCowLeftCoast (talk) 23:33, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Sequester

Can the sequester (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Sequestration) be considered an example of austerity measures? 128.123.207.77 (talk) 15:11, 4 March 2013 (UTC)

Maybe? I lean towards no. While the sequestration debate has been about budget cuts and tax, we're talking about amounts less than 2% of the overall budget. Austerity is typically a major policy change in the way gov't operates as far as taxes and spending go. Naapple (Talk) 06:11, 5 March 2013 (UTC)

Krugman on Latvia

an editor has removed a quote by the current Latvian President, referring her country being "bankrupt in five years", as weasel and irrelevant. i feel this quote adds texture to the article as Latvia was specifically singled out by austerity's most vocal critic, who was wrong about bankruptcy and the very country he predicted would be doomed by austerity is now leading the EU in growth. since the same section already has a piece written by the critic himself, it seems odd to exclude a quote by Krugman from a far more relevant source about Latvia, the leader herself. [9] Darkstar1st (talk) 05:30, 17 March 2013 (UTC)

2nd revert by Specifico

[10], this time stating, ...Cited article and Krugman column don't say "bankrupt" The last sentence is WP:SYNTH" . from the cited article line 4, Latvia is the new Argentina, it will inevitably go bankrupt [11]. Darkstar1st (talk) 20:00, 17 March 2013 (UTC)

I think we should leave the PM interview in the article, but not focus on the Krugman-related Q&A with the interviewer. Perhaps something to the effect that: "The Latvian PM stated in an interview in March 2013 that austerity was the proper strategy for returning his country to growth." No point in bringing in Krugman, as he did title a blog piece comparing Latvia to Argentina back in 2008, but I didn't see where he said it would go bankrupt. The PM may be misquoting or mis-interpreting. My edit (reverted) tried to balance those elements but if the Krugman point is contentious, we can avoid that and just focus on the other questions the PM answered.Farcaster (talk) 21:22, 17 March 2013 (UTC)

Why not put the sentence about the PM at the end of the paragraph directly above, with the Krugman opinion to which PM appears to be responding. The balance of the 2 lines again referencing Krugman is gratuitous and the final ssentence is WP:SYNTH in the context of the 2 line paragraph. We would, however, need a Krugman statement that predicted Latvia going bankrupt. Otherwise how can we cite PM as ascribing that to Krugman? "Argentina" is not an English synonym for "bankrupt." Does that sound OK? SPECIFICO talk 21:32, 17 March 2013 (UTC)

we cant speculate why the PM of Latvia said what she did, only incorporate what the RS reported. i think the glaring contrast twix Latvia and Argentina demand some mention, right? perhaps i could submit a new section on Estonia in the meantime without objection? much of the same story is replayed there, and several RS to support. Darkstar1st (talk) 21:54, 17 March 2013 (UTC)

I tend to agree with Farcaster here. This could go a lot more smoothly if the suggested edits be carried out rather than a revert and talk suggestion. The editing in this article has generally gone pretty smoothly for such a polarizing topic and I'm hoping it stays that way. Naapple (Talk) 05:52, 18 March 2013 (UTC)

Michael Morrison jobs correlogram

The graph in question: Relationship between fiscal tightening in Eurozone countries with their unemployment rate, 2008-2012(ref)Michael Morrison (May 9, 2012) "Austerity: The Jobs Killer" Decisions Based on Evidence</ref>

I am able to see Michael Morrison's CV linked from his "About" page, which says in part that he was Dean of Arts and Sciences after being the Social Sciences Department Chair at North Dakota State College. Therefore I believe he passes WP:SPS as an independent expert. Ah, now I see that the source cited in the graph is down, so I am replacing the graph with the archive link instead. There is no doubt that the graph is extremely informative about the overall outcome of austerity policies during an economic downturn. 71.212.228.188 (talk) 01:59, 20 March 2013 (UTC)

There's so much wrong with this graph. First, the guy isn't a credible source. He's a sociology professor at a community college with a long discontinued, outdated personal blog. The graph itself is completely self serving. The correlation is a joke; that data is all over the place. The ability to click the "show trendline" check box in excel doesn't make one a statistician. The horizontal axis is labeled "Austerity" with made up units. How exactly do you measure that?

A years-old blog and a resume from a dropbox link doesn't come close to WP:SPS, and even if it did, the table is garbage. Naapple (Talk) 21:52, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

Morrison is not a "sociology professor at a community college" -- he's a retired community college president and the former dean of arts and sciences and vice president for instruction at North Dakota State. WP:SPS says "Self-published expert sources may be considered reliable when produced by an established expert on the subject matter, whose work in the relevant field has previously been published by reliable third-party publications." There are over a dozen publications on economic development in Morrison's CV (linked from his "About" page by the way) and dozens more in related fields such as legislative advocacy, demographics, and inequality and education. There is no doubt that he clearly passes both the letter and spirit of WP:SPS with flying colors. The self-published source he cites clearly states the proportion of the variation explained by the correlation, but I agree it should be in the graph's caption, too. 70.58.15.107 (talk) 19:38, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

Irregardless of his supposed credentials uploaded in the form of a resume in a dropbox link, you can't pull cites from someone's personal blog. Does he have something published in a journal somewhere? Something peer reviewed? Does he write for a newspaper? Is he actually an economist, or a sociologist with a political interest? If no then it doesn't belong here. "Self-published expert sources may be considered reliable when produced by an established expert on the subject matter, whose work in the relevant field has previously been published by reliable third-party publications". Naapple (Talk) 21:31, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

Yes, did you click through the links on his CV? It shouldn't bother you that it's on Dropbox since it's linked from his site. By the way, the austerity units are not made up. They are the same fiscal tightening as percentage of GDP in the Financial Times graph that Morrison based his correlogram on and of which you apparently approve. Anyway, I asked about this at WP:RSN#Austerity effect on jobs graph. 67.41.205.108 (talk) 05:16, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Reinhart/Rogoff austerity paper failed through replication

Source — Preceding unsigned comment added by JLAmidei (talk • contribs) 05:03, 20 April 2013 (UTC)

Discussion of including European unemployment statistics in lead

Austerity impacts in Europe, such as record and rising unemployment and rising debt to GDP ratios, are relevant for the lead. So is CBO on what austerity would do to the U.S. These are facts. If saying record unemployment and rising debt to GDP ratios are not a "negative" effect, what are they? Should we call them "mixed"? Further, expansionary austerity is a controversial theory, discredited by several other economic studies. So calling it controversial is a nice way to put it, if we give it coverage in the lead at all. Farcaster (talk) 14:35, 10 May 2013 (UTC)

"Austerity" encompasses more than just recent history or the Eurozone. That said, many of these countries that enacted some form of austerity were already on their way out. If you toss water on someone burning to death, and they still die, do you say that all water is ineffective? Of course not. Plus there's recent examples of austerity in this very article in which the countries have improved.

While I'm sure you think that austerity is ineffective and detrimental, that simply isn't a fact. The lead is meant to stay neutral, and that's what it is. The wording was carefully chosen and decided on before, and going down this path of point/counterpoint has already been done. That's why the lead is neutral without citing examples. Also, where has EFC suddenly been debunked? More opinion and conjecture, I think. Naapple (Talk) 21:24, 10 May 2013 (UTC)

I'll re-include the Europe statistics and CBO data, simply stating the facts are as predicted by macroeconomics. Nobody cared about austerity before the present crisis; most of this article has been built out by me and that content is now summarized in the lead (which you keep removing). The Krugman article points to several studies that have dismissed expansionary austerity; the Alessina-Ardagna paper has been widely debunked now; links are in the Krugman article. I'm using the term "controversial" as opposed to "debunked." One paper doesn't deserve lead treatment at the level of macroeconomics and all the research behind it, but I left it there as a compromise.Farcaster (talk) 22:22, 10 May 2013 (UTC)

The version claiming that "The economic effects of austerity are unclear...." is not neutral, not supported by sources, and inferior to Farcaster's version here. I would also like to see the sentences about recent IMF guidance reversals discussed above restored, too. The IMF reversal on austerity is one of the more significant macroeconomics stories of the past several decades. EllenCT (talk) 04:17, 11 May 2013 (UTC)

New book, How Austerity Kills

I ordered The Body Economic: How Austerity Kills after reading this review of it earlier today. I'm glad someone has done a thorough statistical compendium, but if it's anything like the other couple books on economics by epidemiologists that I know about, it is doomed to an uneasy fate on Wikipedia. Which I think is very sad, because logically a rational society would give the last word on economics disputes to epidemiologists such as Hans Rosling instead of ideologues, who by their very nature are unreliable and biased instead of data-based. EllenCT (talk) 22:34, 2 July 2013 (UTC)

Out of date data

I'm just a visitor, and not an editor, but I feel that I should flag up the fact that the UK austerity program section contains data which is now out of date. It claims, for instance, that the UK had a double dip recession, when revised figures have now determined that this was not the case.