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2016 Pacific hurricane season

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2016 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJanuary 7, 2016 (record earliest)
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBlas
 • Maximum winds140 mph (220 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure947 mbar (hPa; 27.97 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions12
Total storms11
Hurricanes6
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		3
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related article
Pacific hurricane seasons
2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

The 2016 Pacific hurricane season is a currently ongoing season which marked the first time since 2011 in which no tropical cyclones occurred in May, and the first time since 2007 that no named storms formed in the month of June. The season officially started on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30.[1] These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, as illustrated by Hurricane Pali, which became the earliest Central Pacific tropical cyclone to form on record,[2] the formation of tropical cyclones are possible at any time of the year.

The season had a very inactive start, but tied the record for named storms for the month of July with 1985 and 2015 each having seven named storms.

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1981-2010): 15.4 7.6 3.2 [3]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [4]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [4]
Date Source Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
May 6, 2016 SMN 17 9 4 [5]
May 27, 2016 NOAA 13–20 6–11 3–6 [6]
Area Named
storms		 Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 9 5 3
Actual activity: CPAC 1 1 0
Actual activity: 11 6 3

On May 6, 2016, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first outlook for the Pacific hurricane season, forecasting a near average season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On May 27, NOAA released their outlook, forecasting 13-20 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. NOAA admitted that this season would be difficult to predict because of changing conditions, but both organizations cited a dissipating El Niño and the formation of a La Niña event, which resulted in the prediction of a near-normal season in both basins. In the Central Pacific, about four to seven cyclones would form or enter within the basin, citing an equal 40% chance of an above-normal or near-normal season.

Seasonal summary

Main article: Timeline of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Darby (2016)2015 Pacific hurricane season#Tropical Depression Nine-CSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Four simultaneous tropical cyclones existed on July 22. From left to right: Darby, Estelle, Eight-E (which would soon become Georgette), and Frank

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the 2016 Pacific hurricane season, as of 03:00 UTC August 7, is 92.1375 units (78.9675 units from the Eastern Pacific and 13.17 units from the Central Pacific).[nb 1]

As the new year began, Tropical Depression Nine-C from the previous season was in the Central Pacific, but dissipated later that day. Nine-C's remnants led to the formation of Pali on January 7, two days before Tropical Storm Winona's formation in 1989. Pali subsequently surpassed Hurricane Ekeka's record and became a hurricane on January 11. When Pali reached a peak intensity of 100 mph, it beat Winona to become the strongest January tropical cyclone east of the dateline. Pali also reached a record low latitude of 2.0°N, beating Nine-C's record of 2.2°N to become the southern most tropical cyclone on record in the western hemisphere. Although Pali formed in January, the season kicked off to a very inactive start; for the first time since 2011, no tropical depressions or storms formed during the month of May, and no named storms formed during June since 2007.

Agatha formed on July 2, the latest first named storm in the eastern Pacific proper since 1969. Despite this, the season set a record for the most number of storms during the first half of July. When Georgette formed on July 21, it became the seventh named storm to form in the month of July; equaling the previous record set in 1985 and 2015 for the most active July since reliable records began. And when Frank became a hurricane (after Georgette did so), it marked a record-high 5 hurricanes in July. Finally, when Tropical Depression Nine-E formed in late July, it became the record-tying eighth tropical cyclone to form in the month (also tied with 1985). Nine-E eventually became Howard on August 1, just short of setting a new record.[citation needed]

Storms

Hurricane Pali

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJanuary 7 – January 15
Peak intensity100 mph (155 km/h) (1-min);
977 mbar (hPa)

At the onset of 2016, the dissipating Tropical Depression Nine-C left behind a large area of moisture across the equatorial Pacific. A powerful westerly wind burst—a feature commonly associated with strong El Niño events—spurred cyclogenesis within the disturbance, resulting in the formation of an area of low pressure. Fueled by unusually high sea surface temperatures, estimated at 29.5 °C (85.1 °F), the system gradually coalesced into a tropical depression on January 7. This marked the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone on record in the Central Pacific, surpassing 1989's Tropical Storm Winona by six days.[7] It soon strengthened into a tropical storm, receiving the name Pali, becoming the earliest such system in the northeastern Pacific on record.[8] Then, on January 11, Pali strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the earliest hurricane on record in the northeast Pacific basin, beating the previous record set by Hurricane Ekeka in 1992.[9] Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.0°N, making it the lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, surpassing Tropical Depression Nine-C which attained a minimum latitude of 2.2°N just two weeks prior.[10][11] On January 12, Pali strengthened further into a Category 2 hurricane.[12] During the next few days, Pali rapidly weakened while turning back towards the south-southeast, before weakening into a remnant low early on January 15.[13]

Unrelated to Pali, Hurricane Alex developed over the Atlantic during the last few days of Pali's existence. This marked the first known occurrence of simultaneous January tropical cyclones between the two basins.[14]

Tropical Depression One-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 6 – June 8
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

On June 4, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area for possible development.[15] Over the next few days, the chances of the storm forming were low. Unexpectedly, however, on June 6, advisories began to be issued on Tropical Depression One-E.[16][17] This led the Government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for its coast.[18] On June 7 the storm weakened slightly thus the watch was removed.[19] Early on June 8, the storm made landfall in Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and dissipated.[20]

As a precautionary measure, temporary shelters were opened across Chiapas.[21] The depression caused minor damage across Oaxaca, primarily within the Salina Cruz municipality. Heavy rains led to some street flooding and a sinkhole that damaged one home.[22]

Tropical Storm Agatha

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 2 – July 5
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1003 mbar (hPa)

On June 30, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor an area for possible formation. On July 1, organization unexpectedly increased.[23] Seven hours later, early on July 2, the tropical disturbance strengthened into Tropical Depression Two-E. The system quickly organized, and later that day, the NHC upgraded Two-E into Tropical Storm Agatha.[24] Agatha slightly strengthened to peak intensity on July 3.[25] Winds topped off at 45 mph. Soon after, Agatha weakened slightly, with winds lowering to 40 mph later that day. The storm continued westwards over the next two days. Early on July 5, Agatha became post-tropical.[26]

With Agatha's naming nearly two months into the season (on July 2), the storm is the second-latest first named storm in the eastern Pacific proper — only Tropical Storm Ava, which reached tropical storm intensity on July 3, 1969, formed later in the season.[24]

Hurricane Blas

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 3 – July 10
Peak intensity140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min);
947 mbar (hPa)

On June 27, the NHC began to monitor a tropical wave moving over Central America for possible development.[27] A low pressure area formed south of Mexico on June 30,[28] and early on July 3, the storm gained enough organization to be designated Tropical Depression Three-E.[29] Six hours later, amid a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and decreasing vertical wind shear, it intensified into Tropical Storm Blas.[30] Steady strengthening ensued, and Blas intensified into a hurricane on July 4.[31] Intensification stalled for the remainder of that day as dry air wrapped into the circulation;[32] however, Blas began to rapidly deepen on July 5, and it became the first major hurricane of the season that evening.[33] Blas quickly reached peak intensity at Category 4 strength on July 6.[34] Blas weakened to a Category 3 hurricane soon after, before transitioning into an annular tropical cyclone and maintaining intensity.[35] However, Blas soon passed over decreasing sea surface temperatures, resulting in a slow weakening trend; Blas weakened below major hurricane status late on July 7,[36] and down to a Category 1 hurricane by the next day.[37] Blas further degraded to a tropical storm on July 9,[38] as weakening accelerated amid a stable air mass and increasing southwesterly shear.[39] Over sea surface temperatures of 24 °C (75 °F), Blas weakened to a tropical depression on July 10,[40] and degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone soon after.[41]

Moisture associated with the remnants of Blas brought showers to Hawaii.[42] Peak daily rainfall totals primairly ranged between 1 to 2 in (25 to 50 mm)* and did not cause any serious flooding.[43]

Hurricane Celia

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 6 – July 16
Peak intensity100 mph (155 km/h) (1-min);
972 mbar (hPa)

On July 2, the National Hurricane Center began to watch an area for possible development.[44] Early on July 6, they noted that "a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,"[45] and later that day, it became Tropical Depression Four-E.[46] On July 8, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Celia, and just two days later on July 10, Celia intensified into a hurricane.[47] Celia then reached Category 2 status on July 11, a strength the storm held on to for two days.[48] On July 14, Celia began to degrade at a faster rate, dropping to tropical storm strength. On July 15, Celia crossed into the Central Pacific basin and was later downgraded to a tropical depression. The following day, it became a remnant low.[49] On July 17, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center noted a low chance of regeneration as a tropical cyclone.[50] Over the next four days, Celia failed to redevelop strong convection, and failed to regenerate into a tropical cyclone.[citation needed]

Although the remnants of Celia passed north of Hawaii, it disrupted the typical trade winds, resulting in higher humidity across the island group and brief, but heavy showers over central Oahu and the windward slopes of Maui and the Big Island on July 18.[43]

Hurricane Darby

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 11 – July 26
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
962 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Darby (2016)

In the first two weeks of July, five low pressure systems formed in the Eastern Pacific. The fourth of these was first noted by the National Hurricane Center on July 9; it was located in a favorable environment, and was expected to develop into a tropical storm.[51] On July 11, the low was upgraded into Tropical Depression Five-E.[52] On July 12, Five-E intensified into a tropical storm, and was assigned the name Darby; the next day it attained hurricane status. It later strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane on July 15. On July 16, despite traveling over cooler waters, Darby unexpectedly became a Category 3 hurricane. However, 6 hours later, Darby weakened back to a Category 2.[53] Over the next four days, Darby gradually degraded over cooler waters as the storm moved westwards, towards Hawaii. But, as it advanced closer towards the area, it strengthened again, prompting several Tropical Storm warnings and watches to be issued for the Hawaiian Islands.[54] At 00:00 UTC July 24, it made landfall near Pahala of the Big Island.[55] Crossing the island as a minimal tropical storm, it was the first to do so since Iselle in 2014. Afterwards, Darby began accelerating northwestwards.[citation needed]

Tropical Storm Estelle

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 15 – July 22
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
989 mbar (hPa)

In the line of continuous tropical cyclones with the same path, the low that would become Estelle began to be monitored on July 14.[56] Less than a day after being designated as a low pressure system on July 15, it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Six-E.[57] Early on July 16, the fifth tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific season formed, being assigned the name Estelle.[58] By July 18, Estelle had strengthened into a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just below hurricane status, however, it slightly weakened afterwards.[59] Estelle continued to maintain its strength, however, by July 20, the storm was not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and began degrading over cooler water northeast of Hawaii.[60] On July 22, Estelle weakened into a 40 mph (65 km/h)* storm and degraded into a remnant low later that day.[61]

Hurricane Frank

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 21 – July 28
Peak intensity85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min);
979 mbar (hPa)

A low pressure system off the coast of Mexico organized into a tropical storm on July 21.[62] The NHC upgraded the system directly to a tropical storm with its first advisory on the system, naming it Frank, skipping the tropical depression classification.[63] Over the next few days, Frank moved away from the Baja California Peninsula. Despite continued forecasts of strengthening, Frank did not reach hurricane status until July 26, after nearby Georgette weakened. Nonetheless, Frank became the record fifth Pacific hurricane to form in July; the previous record was four, set by five previous seasons.[64] however, only a day after peaking, Frank weakened into a post-tropical cyclone.[citation needed]

Hurricane Georgette

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 21 – July 27
Peak intensity130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min);
952 mbar (hPa)

Another depression developed between Estelle and Frank on July 21. A couple of hours later, the tropical depression strengthened into a tropical storm, receiving the name Georgette, the seventh tropical storm to form in July,[65][66] tying the record with 1985 and 2015. Early on July 24, Georgette reached hurricane strength, and unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane. Afterwards, Georgette degraded rather quickly due to cooler waters, weakening to a tropical storm only a day later.[citation needed] Remnant moisture from Hurricane Georgette brought heavy rain to Oahu on July 31 but caused only minor flooding.[43]

Tropical Storm Howard

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 31 – August 3
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
999 mbar (hPa)

On July 31, another low-pressure area had developed into Tropical Depression Nine-E, setting the record for the eighth tropical cyclone to form in July. The next day, the depression quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Howard. On August 2, Howard reached its peak intensity of 60 mph (95 km/h) wind speeds and a barometric pressure of 999 millibars (hPa). The system degraded to a remnant low on August 3.[citation needed]

Tropical Storm Ivette

Tropical Depression Ivette
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:8:00 p.m. PDT August 7 (03:00 UTC August 8)
Location:17°12′N 139°48′W / 17.2°N 139.8°W / 17.2; -139.8 (Tropical Depression Ivette) ± 20 nm
About 1,015 mi (1,635 km) E of Hilo, Hawaii
Sustained winds:30 kt (35 mph; 55 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 kt (45 mph; 75 km/h)
Pressure:1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg)
Movement:W at 8 knots (9 mph; 15 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On July 25, the NHC highlighted an area well southwest of Baja California for tropical cyclone formation potential over the following week.[67] A broad area of low pressure formed south of Manzanillo, Mexico two days later,[68] eventually gaining ample organization to be declared a tropical depression by 21:00 UTC on August 2.[69] The depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ivette twelve hours later as banding increased.[70] Despite initial forecasts calling for a strong Category 1 hurricane,[70] moderate wind shear only allowed the cyclone to attain peak winds of 60 mph (95 km/h).[71] Continued shear and a more stable environment caused Ivette to weaken to a tropical depression by 03:00 UTC on August 8 as it entered the Central Pacific.[72]

Current storm information

As of 8:00 p.m. PDT August 7 (03:00 UTC August 8), Tropical Depression Ivette is located within 20 nautical miles of 17°12′N 139°48′W / 17.2°N 139.8°W / 17.2; -139.8 (Ivette), about 1,015 miles (1,635 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots (55 mph; 55 km/h), with gusts up to 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), and the system is moving west at 8 knots (9 mph; 15 km/h).

For latest official information, see:

Tropical Storm Javier

Tropical Storm Javier
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:3:00 a.m. MDT (09:00 UTC) August 8
Location:21°30′N 108°18′W / 21.5°N 108.3°W / 21.5; -108.3 (Tropical Storm Javier) ± 40 nm
About 140 mi (225 km) SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Sustained winds:45 kt (50 mph; 85 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 55 kt (65 mph; 100 km/h)
Pressure:999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg)
Movement:NW at 11 knots (13 mph; 20 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On August 2, the NHC noted that an area of low pressure in association with the remnants of Hurricane Earl could further develop into a tropical cyclone off the southwestern coastline of Mexico over subsequent days.[73] An area of disturbed weather formed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec two days later,[74] eventually acquiring sufficient organization to be declared a tropical depression by 09:00 UTC on August 7.[75] Surface observations from Manzanillo, Mexico by 16:00 UTC indicated that the depression had intensified into Tropical Storm Javier.[76]

Current storm information

As of 3:00 a.m. MDT (03:00 UTC) August 8, Tropical Storm Javier is located within 40 nautical miles of 21°30′N 108°18′W / 21.5°N 108.3°W / 21.5; -108.3 (Javier), about 140 miles (225 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 45 knots (50 mph85 km/h), with gusts up to 55 knots (65 mph; 100 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg), and the system is moving northwest at 11 knots (13 mph; 20 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Javier.

For latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season.[77] This is the same list used in the 2010 season, except for the name Ivette, which replaced Isis after the rise of the terrorist group of the same name.[78] Therefore, the name Ivette was used for the first time this year.

  • Agatha
  • Blas
  • Celia
  • Darby
  • Estelle
  • Frank
  • Georgette
  • Howard
  • Ivette (active)
  • Javier (active)
  • Kay (unused)
  • Lester (unused)
  • Madeline (unused)
  • Newton (unused)
  • Orlene (unused)
  • Paine (unused)
  • Roslyn (unused)
  • Seymour (unused)
  • Tina (unused)
  • Virgil (unused)
  • Winifred (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists.[79] The next four names slated for use are shown below.

  • Pali
  • Ulika (unused)
  • Walaka (unused)
  • Akoni (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2016 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2016 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2016 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Pali January 7 – 15 Category 2 hurricane 100 (155) 977 None None None
One-E June 6 – 8 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1006 Southwestern Mexico Minor None
Agatha July 2 – 5 Tropical storm 45 (75) 1003 None None None
Blas July 3 – 10 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 947 Hawaii None None
Celia July 6 – 16 Category 2 hurricane 100 (155) 972 None None None
Darby July 11 – 26 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 962 Hawaii Unknown None
Estelle July 15 – 22 Tropical storm 70 (110) 989 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Frank July 21 – 28 Category 1 hurricane 85 (140) 979 Revillagigedo Islands, Baja California Peninsula None None
Georgette July 21 – 27 Category 4 hurricane 130 (215) 952 None None None
Howard July 31 – August 3 Tropical storm 60 (95) 999 None None None
Ivette August 2 – present Tropical storm 60 (95) 1000 None None None
Javier August 7 – present Tropical storm 50 (85) 999 Western Mexico, Northwestern Mexico, Baja California Peninsula None None
Season aggregates
12 systems January 7 – Season ongoing   140 (220) 947 Minor None  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2016 Pacific hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

  1. ^ Dorst Neal. When is hurricane season? (Report). Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Archived from the original on 6 December 2010. Retrieved November 25, 2010. {{cite report}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  2. ^ Pali Becomes Earliest Central Pacific Tropical Storm on Record
  3. ^ "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. College Park, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  4. ^ a b National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division; Central Pacific Hurricane Center (April 26, 2024). "The Northeast and North Central Pacific hurricane database 1949–2023". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. Archived from the original on May 29, 2024. A guide on how to read the database is available here. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
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  12. ^ HURRICANE PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 22
  13. ^ REMNANTS OF PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 31
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